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An-148 missing after takeoff from Moscow

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An-148 missing after takeoff from Moscow

Old 11th Feb 2018, 17:44
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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Even if FR24 data must be interpreted with a grain of salt the ground speed after levelling off at about 6000 feet (or rather 2000m) seems to be high at more than 350 kts for 2 min. So either airspeed was high or tail wind was a gale in which case turbulence/wind shear might be a factor.
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Old 11th Feb 2018, 17:56
  #42 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by andrasz View Post
Thanks Kulver!

The piece of wreckage that appears about 15 minutes into the start of the feed looks like a turbine shaft. It had to be something catastrophic to cause such disintegration of an engine (or APU ?) and the bending of the shaft (ground impact alone would not have done that, neither an engine failure). A mid-air still looks plausible.
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Old 11th Feb 2018, 18:00
  #43 (permalink)  
 
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IAC An-148-100B RA-61704 11.02.2018

No english version yet
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Old 11th Feb 2018, 18:31
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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Google Translate:

According to the information received, on 11.02.2018 at 14:28 Moscow time there was a loss of radio communication and a mark on the radar screen of the An-148-100B RA-61074 airliner of the Saratov airlines of Privolzhsky MTU Rosaviatsii. The plane performed a flight on the route Moscow (Domodedovo) - Orsk. Departure from the airport "Domodedovo" at 14:21. On board there were 65 passengers and 6 crew members. The wreckage of the plane was found in the vicinity of the village. Argunovo, Ramensky district, Moscow region. Information about the consequences of the incident is being clarified.
The Interstate Aviation Committee has formed a commission to investigate this catastrophe. The commission went to the disaster site and started work.
The investigation will be conducted in strict compliance with the provisions of Annex 13 of the Chicago Convention.
The Interstate Aviation Committee expresses its condolences to the families and friends of the deceased.
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Old 11th Feb 2018, 18:31
  #45 (permalink)  
 
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From my reading of it, Kulverstukas, I believe it's just a standard statement from MAK saying they are about to start work on the investigation?
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Old 11th Feb 2018, 18:36
  #46 (permalink)  
 
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Exactly, barry
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Old 11th Feb 2018, 18:46
  #47 (permalink)  
 
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Very large (gross) full frontal impact on high speed running engine.

quite rare, I've only seen one other before

Originally Posted by Kulverstukas View Post
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Old 11th Feb 2018, 19:12
  #48 (permalink)  
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Pilot reported technical problem, planned emergency landing:
https://www.rt.com/news/418485-russi...nction-report/
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Old 11th Feb 2018, 19:24
  #49 (permalink)  
 
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It was already disproved, as well as a collision with a helicopter.
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Old 11th Feb 2018, 19:43
  #50 (permalink)  
 
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Old 11th Feb 2018, 19:58
  #51 (permalink)  
 
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Old 11th Feb 2018, 20:23
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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The fuel explosion would suggest that the tanks/wings were (mostly) intact when it hit the dirt ...
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Old 11th Feb 2018, 20:31
  #53 (permalink)  
 
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I just like to see if I understand the information up to this point:

No deice needed and executed.
No helicopter midair.
No MAYDAY or PAN to ATC.
A standard departure in a very controlled manner to ca 6000feet until data lost.
Normal speed development, even if FR24 records it a bit strange due to the way it is recorded.

I take it the track on FR24 is accurate , and that indicates no handling problems up until they departed level flight.

They were cleared to FL110 just before they lost control ?

How am I doing so fare?
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Old 11th Feb 2018, 21:04
  #54 (permalink)  
 
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FR24 chaps!

Did it fly earlier today , and if so, how long was the turnaround.?
Was it deiced earlier today?

I am thinking about the remote chance of frozen up controls , pure speculation from my side.

I fly an aircraft that pitches up when power is added(B738).

If the elevators got stuck and there is only a small pitch down movement in this aircraft as power is added to climb, I can see a remote possibility of this being the outcome.

Is the fleet grounded for now?
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Old 11th Feb 2018, 21:09
  #55 (permalink)  
 
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This was no loss of control, that leaves a compact smoking hole in the ground. The answer lies in the photo Kulverstukas now posted in high resoluton.
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Old 11th Feb 2018, 21:16
  #56 (permalink)  
 
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Well, at that point:

1. Collision: you'd expect by now to know what it hit.
2. Icing: 7 minutes after departure, 6000 ft above -4 C and climbing.
3. Explosives: 6000 feet, a pressure altitude likely well below that, 28 minutes after EOBT = the only way that will work is if you have a poorly educated suicide bomber with a really big bomb, sitting in just the right place.
4. Rapid disassembly: like #3, does this actually happen?

In short: tragic, and don't believe anyone not bringing additional facts to the table.
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Old 11th Feb 2018, 22:00
  #57 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DingerX View Post
Well, at that point:
4. Rapid disassembly: like #3, does this actually happen?
Probably not, at least not with "only" 6000ft to accelerate.

But now that video has surfaced, it looks like that speculation can also be put to rest.

That one is highly suggestive of the plane being largely in one piece on impact, but impacting with a shallow angle.

So it would seem the most likely theory from current info is some sort of loss of control at 6000ft (Icing, control lock, disorientation, collision - although that one seems ruled out at this point, power mismanagement, inertial reference fail, reverser deployment... you name it), with a subsequent uncontrolled descent that happened to be in a shallow, but very fast dive on impact (possibly almost recovered). Impacting fast, shallow and banked with a cartwheel-type motion could give you the kind of debris field of pieces this size, and explain the running engines.

By definition the long stretch free of big accidents would be ended by something horrible, but that still only makes it worse when it actually occurs... Sad day.
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Old 11th Feb 2018, 22:41
  #58 (permalink)  
 
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Is the fleet grounded for now?
No, itís not. Same type, same airline landed on RW14R just before I departed DME tonight.
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Old 11th Feb 2018, 23:08
  #59 (permalink)  
 
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Well the most obvious initial thought is that it was not an accident. However given the now pretty high security at DME would hopefully like to rule that one out. Huge improvements on the old days and now world class, I used to operate out of there and things really have changed.
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Old 11th Feb 2018, 23:36
  #60 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Grumpi View Post
That one is highly suggestive of the plane being largely in one piece on impact, but impacting with a shallow angle.
I looked at the video frame by frame and I cannot see the AC or light streaks anywhere above ground level prior to the explosion which appeared to take place behind a building. But, it almost looked like there might have been two impacts moving from right to left, the first throwing some snow up and the second resulting in the explosion. Could simply have been poor read on my part or just the clarity of the video.

Going back to the 2011 accident, though the AC did exceed airspeed design limits and break up, one prelim report was defective airspeed indicator which caused the crew to increase speed. Don't know if that was ever definitively determined. Wonder what parts kept this AC grounded for two years?
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