Originally Posted by
DingerX
Well, at that point:
4. Rapid disassembly: like #3, does this actually happen?
Probably not, at least not with "only" 6000ft to accelerate.
But now that video has surfaced, it looks like that speculation can also be put to rest.
That one is highly suggestive of the plane being largely in one piece on impact, but impacting with a shallow angle.
So it would seem the most likely theory from current info is some sort of loss of control at 6000ft (Icing, control lock, disorientation, collision - although that one seems ruled out at this point, power mismanagement, inertial reference fail, reverser deployment... you name it), with a subsequent uncontrolled descent that happened to be in a shallow, but very fast dive on impact (possibly almost recovered). Impacting fast, shallow and banked with a cartwheel-type motion could give you the kind of debris field of pieces this size, and explain the running engines.
By definition the long stretch free of big accidents would be ended by something horrible, but that still only makes it worse when it actually occurs... Sad day.
