Near miss with 5 airliners waiting for T/O on taxiway "C" in SFO!
Guest
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: On the Beach
Posts: 3,336
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: U.S.A.
Posts: 474
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Aterpster and all,
One of the big selling points by the FAA for ADS-B was to be able to get rid of the "expensive radars".
Not going to happen.....
Also, I believe that a backup source of navigation will ultimately be needed to provide a secure system. Enhanced Loran C comes to mind.
Imaging the consequences of a worldwide hack/shutdown of GPS......
One of the big selling points by the FAA for ADS-B was to be able to get rid of the "expensive radars".
Not going to happen.....
Also, I believe that a backup source of navigation will ultimately be needed to provide a secure system. Enhanced Loran C comes to mind.
Imaging the consequences of a worldwide hack/shutdown of GPS......
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: nowhere
Posts: 1
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
aterpster;
It not about the degree of sympathetic hearing, it's about the effects of fatigue that appear common to both events. There are important cues missed in both events. We have yet to learn what preceded the SFO incident and why.
The factors listed under the NTSB's Report on the UPS accident, "Probable Cause and Findings" section,
(5) the captain's performance deficiencies likely due to factors including, but not limited to, fatigue, distraction, or confusion, consistent with performance deficiencies exhibited during training; and (6) the first officer's fatigue due to acute sleep loss resulting from her ineffective off-duty time management and circadian factors.
may or may not also apply in the SFO incident, we haven't heard from the NTSB or the TSB yet but I think the remark regarding circadian effects is a good starting point but having done these approaches into SFO over many years, I understand that there is likely more to this.
It not about the degree of sympathetic hearing, it's about the effects of fatigue that appear common to both events. There are important cues missed in both events. We have yet to learn what preceded the SFO incident and why.
The factors listed under the NTSB's Report on the UPS accident, "Probable Cause and Findings" section,
(5) the captain's performance deficiencies likely due to factors including, but not limited to, fatigue, distraction, or confusion, consistent with performance deficiencies exhibited during training; and (6) the first officer's fatigue due to acute sleep loss resulting from her ineffective off-duty time management and circadian factors.
may or may not also apply in the SFO incident, we haven't heard from the NTSB or the TSB yet but I think the remark regarding circadian effects is a good starting point but having done these approaches into SFO over many years, I understand that there is likely more to this.
There seems to be an automatic assumption by some that if any incident happens at certain times or on a long flight, that fatigue is a factor, perhaps in an attempt to deflect attention away from the possibility of crew error.
As of right now, most of us have no idea on whether the crew were fatigued so we should not be posting in a manner as if it was likely. The reality is that it is a possibility along with many other possibilities and that's all.
The other reality is that there are flights all over the world that are long haul and at strange hours. Yet they are completed without incident. Misidentification of airports and runways happen on a regular basis to fatigued and non-fatigued crews.
As we can see in the UPS cause that was posted, the captain had some deficiencies that were seen in training and resulted in the accident. I'm sure they were tired, but so were probably 25% or more of UPS pilots in the system that night and every night.
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: PA
Age: 59
Posts: 30
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I mentioned the use of ADS-B technology in an earlier post on this thread, but didn't explain how I thought it could be used. Perhaps the presentation on Day 2 at 16.20 (ATSA-SURF - Enhanced situational awareness under adverse weather conditions) will help to explain what I mean:-
Joint Fifth ASAS-TN2 Workshop and Second FLYSAFE Forum ? ASAS TN
I know these are advanced concepts but I remain convinced that the display of other traffic using ADS-B In and Out, together with data linked warnings and taxi instructions will be the way forward as traffic levels rise and to help resolve mis-perceptions of the type that may have occurred at SFO
Joint Fifth ASAS-TN2 Workshop and Second FLYSAFE Forum ? ASAS TN
I know these are advanced concepts but I remain convinced that the display of other traffic using ADS-B In and Out, together with data linked warnings and taxi instructions will be the way forward as traffic levels rise and to help resolve mis-perceptions of the type that may have occurred at SFO
ADSB signal consists of 112 bits, that is it, you barely get the root and the ac id in that, with coordinates, so forget about any encription, just not enough room. Even the other information is pretty granular.
ADSB may have use for ground movement, but in reality, you will never ever see ADSB-In on a commercial aircraft. Military has it, but it is built behind a very secure encryption system which is not available commercially.
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Confusio Helvetica
Posts: 311
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Jammedstab, I think a distinction needs to be made here between fatigue and circadian rhythms. When I mentioned the "C word", I intentionally did not accuse the crew of being fatigued or even tired. They may have been, but we have no info on that.
What we do know is that it was nearly midnight local time, and the flight was originating from a place where it was then 3 AM. Contrary to your suggestion, we can guess a few things about our crew. For example, they were not based in San Francisco. Also, it was probably between 3:30 AM and midnight on their base time.
And here's the thing about Circadian lows: they're not based on fatigue, but rather what time of day your body thinks it is. Industrial accidents have their highest rates between 2-4 AM and 1-3 PM, and that's with people who are well rested, sober, and in the time zone.
Sure, most crews pull it off just fine. Most times, you'll get by without the last five minutes of final reserve fuel too.
What we do know is that it was nearly midnight local time, and the flight was originating from a place where it was then 3 AM. Contrary to your suggestion, we can guess a few things about our crew. For example, they were not based in San Francisco. Also, it was probably between 3:30 AM and midnight on their base time.
And here's the thing about Circadian lows: they're not based on fatigue, but rather what time of day your body thinks it is. Industrial accidents have their highest rates between 2-4 AM and 1-3 PM, and that's with people who are well rested, sober, and in the time zone.
Sure, most crews pull it off just fine. Most times, you'll get by without the last five minutes of final reserve fuel too.
Guest
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: On the Beach
Posts: 3,336
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I flew many lousy night pairings with TWA before the duty/rest rules got a bit better.
As tired as we may have been on a multi-leg flight from LAX to the east coast on the back side of the clock, we managed to get ourselves alert for the terminal area business at hand, whether it be CAVU or bare minimums.
Don't really know. Perhaps the lack of automation forced us to be more alert. The human-factors folks probably don't have a real good handle on it.
Also, commuting from a distant location to begin a night flight should be illegal.
Also, commuting from a distant location to begin a night flight should be illegal.
Guest
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: On the Beach
Posts: 3,336
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I have no problem with commuting provided it is subject to FAR duty time and rest regulations.
I was forced to commute from LAX to STL for several months. I always went over the day before and spent a night in a hotel before taking my pairing the next day.
That's not the way it works for most commuters. They ride the red-eye then report for their pairing a few hours after arrival, at most. Domiciles open and close. Same happens in other industries. That's a personal/employee/employer problem that should not be transferred to the flight deck.
Also, these days many commute because they chose not to move to the domicile in the first place.
I was forced to commute from LAX to STL for several months. I always went over the day before and spent a night in a hotel before taking my pairing the next day.
That's not the way it works for most commuters. They ride the red-eye then report for their pairing a few hours after arrival, at most. Domiciles open and close. Same happens in other industries. That's a personal/employee/employer problem that should not be transferred to the flight deck.
Also, these days many commute because they chose not to move to the domicile in the first place.
Guest
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: On the Beach
Posts: 3,336
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
TWA never had that. But, before the early 1970s the jump seat couldn't be used for commuting. So, only the senior guys with term passes could commute.
Circa 1970 the LAX chief pilot issued a letter that all LAX pilots had to live within 50 miles of KLAX, The union got that rescinded in short order. We had guys driving up to 200 miles in those days.
Circa 1970 the LAX chief pilot issued a letter that all LAX pilots had to live within 50 miles of KLAX, The union got that rescinded in short order. We had guys driving up to 200 miles in those days.
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: nowhere
Posts: 1
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
When I mentioned the "C word", I intentionally did not accuse the crew of being fatigued or even tired. They may have been, but we have no info on that.
What we do know is that it was nearly midnight local time, and the flight was originating from a place where it was then 3 AM. Contrary to your suggestion, we can guess a few things about our crew. For example, they were not based in San Francisco. Also, it was probably between 3:30 AM and midnight on their base time.
What we do know is that it was nearly midnight local time, and the flight was originating from a place where it was then 3 AM. Contrary to your suggestion, we can guess a few things about our crew. For example, they were not based in San Francisco. Also, it was probably between 3:30 AM and midnight on their base time.
And even if they were based in the east, how do you know that they were not well rested prior to departure? You are making an assumption(and y are making the suggestion) that this crew had to be tired. I suggest that you are just making guesses as potential excuses.
Join Date: May 2002
Location: MA
Posts: 300
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I don't know how prevalent long distance pilot commuting is currently, but only a decade or so ago, I knew a DL pilot who would leave his home in southeastern MA (BOS pilot base had closed) about 0930 to catch an 1130 DL shuttle flight BOS-LGA, taxi from LGA to JFK to command the DL flight JFK-SVO leaving between 1600-1630. This would happen 4-5 times a month.
His landings at SVO came at 0200 or so "body clock time" after a pretty long day. There was a rest period during the TATL flight.
His landings at SVO came at 0200 or so "body clock time" after a pretty long day. There was a rest period during the TATL flight.
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Canada
Posts: 1,257
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
And even if they were based in the east, how do you know that they were not well rested prior to departure? You are making an assumption(and y are making the suggestion) that this crew had to be tired. I suggest that you are just making guesses as potential excuses.
There's a lot of research indicating that most of us cannot perform optimally past 2am unless we only work nights for an extended period of time -- e.g., doing night shifts exclusively for several weeks in a row without break.
Yet as soon as we switch to day work (even for just one day) our body clock "resets", and our night time alertness suffers again -- regardless of how "well rested" we might be.
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: PA
Age: 59
Posts: 30
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Speaking of ADSB, been hearing rumors that the 2020 mandate in the US is not going to happen, anopther delay will be announced soon (associated with the ATC privitization bill)
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Within AM radio broadcast range of downtown Chicago
Age: 71
Posts: 842
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Well put, peekay4. Anecdotally, a good many years ago I had a summer job assignment that led to an entire calendar month of midnight-to-8:00 a.m. shifts. Not flying anything - compiling production numbers and various numerical production reports for a BOF (Basic Oxygen Furnaces) steel-making shop. Around sun-up or so each shift, I had to drive around the massive steel mill works, in my personal car, to deliver some reports to other departments. Indeed the body clock does adjust to "steady midnights" (and some mill folk take pride in their ability, or perhaps it's only perceived ability, to adjust as necessary).But even so, driving around the sprawling Plant 2 of Indiana Harbor Works, alert for gargantuan fork-lifts carrying ingot molds for example, as the August sun was rising over Lake Michigan taxed even a 21-year-old's ability to ..... look sharp!
Last edited by WillowRun 6-3; 23rd Jul 2017 at 02:50. Reason: Typo
That's not the way it works for most commuters. They ride the red-eye then report for their pairing a few hours after arrival, at most. Domiciles open and close.
Either way, unless there's a demonstrated, continious problem, I'd prefer to avoid additional government overreach.
Guest
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: On the Beach
Posts: 3,336
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Colgan Air 3407 was just over 8 years ago.
It's next to impossible to gather information as to whether it is "a demonstrated, continuous problem." The commute issue of 3407's F/O was of considerable concern to the NTSB.
It's next to impossible to gather information as to whether it is "a demonstrated, continuous problem." The commute issue of 3407's F/O was of considerable concern to the NTSB.
Given the considerable changes due to the Colgan crash along with the implementation of FAR 117, there's been ample opportunity to address it if it was deemed thst dangerous. As tragic as Colgan was, it was one accident and there are a lot of other pieces to that puzzle besides commuting.
Longtimelurker
Join Date: Nov 1998
Location: killington Vt
Posts: 391
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I don't know how prevalent long distance pilot commuting is currently, but only a decade or so ago, I knew a DL pilot who would leave his home in southeastern MA (BOS pilot base had closed) about 0930 to catch an 1130 DL shuttle flight BOS-LGA, taxi from LGA to JFK to command the DL flight JFK-SVO leaving between 1600-1630. This would happen 4-5 times a month.
His landings at SVO came at 0200 or so "body clock time" after a pretty long day. There was a rest period during the TATL flight.
His landings at SVO came at 0200 or so "body clock time" after a pretty long day. There was a rest period during the TATL flight.