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Turkish Airlines cargo 747 crashes in Kyrgyzstan

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Turkish Airlines cargo 747 crashes in Kyrgyzstan

Old 19th Jan 2017, 11:57
  #161 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
Really?



Last edited by donotdespisethesnake; 19th Jan 2017 at 12:05. Reason: Smaller image
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Old 19th Jan 2017, 12:05
  #162 (permalink)  
 
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Toga failure

Originally Posted by douglas744 View Post
B744 Go around procedure :

" Go Around "
TOGA,Flap 20
+ CLIMB, Gear up
400', LNAV or HDG Sel
3000' ( or less depending on your SOP ), VNAV or FLCH set speed
Follow missed approach procedure for that runway
Auto pilot can be reengaged in stable conditions.

Problem 1

Normal pitch for go around on 4 engines is about 12.5 degrees ( 3 engines,10 degrees )
If the pitch is insufficient , aircraft may continue to sink and impact will follow .

Problem 2

If asymmetric condition occurs during the go around and not fully countered by rudder,
A/C will roll over and your time to impact is measured in seconds.
Also, if the autopilot was maintained prior to the go around, a failed engine still needs rudder application due to the AP kicking off.

Problem 3

If TOGA mode fails, a No-TOGA go around must be done. This needs practice and plenty of training.

Problem 4

Regardless of the altimeter setting, the GPWS would have alerted the crew with a " TOO LOW, Terrain " or other warning and this requires immediate MAX THRUST setting combined with 20 degree initial pitch up or even more ( PITCH LIMIT ANGLE ) reaction from the pilot and a check that the speed brakes are in .

The list goes on...

The key here is PILOT TRAINING ,COMPANY PROCEDURES, Crew CRM !
Far from blaiming anyone at this point, one can see all the trappings of a go around under
adverse weather conditions , Heavy landing weight, high elevation if unprepared.

The 747 is a dandy to fly but can be a handful with high controls loading if out of trim and poor thrust/ pitch management.
As far as I know if you have a toga fail of course you move throttles forward but airplane still keeps flare mode with autopilot engaged! In this case you need manual go around otherwise flare position will be maintained until first obstacle on extended runway centerline (crew may have disorientation due increase in power -false climbing sense?)
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Old 19th Jan 2017, 12:26
  #163 (permalink)  
 
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I don't follow the discussion on TOGA in this accident. Certainly the investigators have seen the engines by now and know what power they were at when they hit the ground.
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Old 19th Jan 2017, 12:26
  #164 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by aviator17
....otherwise flare position will be maintained until first obstacle on extended runway centerline (crew may have disorientation due increase in power -false climbing sense?)
There is absolutely no ADS-B data suggesting a period of level flight. What's the point of even suggesting that?
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Old 19th Jan 2017, 12:30
  #165 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by lemme View Post
I verified that the FR24 ADS-B position reporting was accurate by looking at the departure and the 13 Jan arrival into Bishkek.
I plotted the "additional data" FR24 released to augment the final approach. In addition, I adjusted the reported altitude up by 300 feet to account for the high pressure.
thank you for most impressive consolidation of known data, lemme!


Originally Posted by Pali View Post
I am bit surprised that there is no regulation to prohibit building any hard structures on the centreline or in the vicinity of it.

Why endanger pilots and inhabitants on the ground by such a negligence?
I's an inevitable outgoings of transition from collective property to private property and then chaos for about 10 years of property and rights legal system change. There is now not only villages in close vicinity of safety grounds of airports, but whole settlements built on high pressure gas or oil pipes or under high voltage power lines, 4-store hotels built at the top of boat garages etc.

Last edited by Kulverstukas; 19th Jan 2017 at 12:46.
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Old 19th Jan 2017, 12:33
  #166 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Magplug View Post
There is absolutely no ADS-B data suggesting a period of level flight. What's the point of even suggesting that?


X=Distance from threshold.

red - proper glideslope
blue - ADS-B data

PS: recorders will be open 20/01 when Turkish experts arrived to Moscow.
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Old 19th Jan 2017, 13:24
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Originally Posted by Amadis of Gaul View Post
Irregardless is not a word. Just an FYI.
Irregardless has been in use as a slang conflation of irrespective and regardless for some time now. The first printed record I can find is from Indiana in 1795. So I think it must be accepted that it is a word, in common use by North Americans to mean the same as its root words. Niminy piminy pedants find it offensive as they maintain that the negative initial consonant "irr" adds a further negative to "regardless" thus making a double negative, and so positive meaning. I feel that this is a purely academic objection, and prefer to go with Humpty Dumpty's argument in "Alice Through the Looking Glass". In any case, taking a pragmatic view, I believe that the word is sufficiently current now that its use is unremarkable, and certainly less likely to give rise to confusion than the widely accepted use of strings of initials and acronyms which infest this forum. FYI
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Old 19th Jan 2017, 13:45
  #168 (permalink)  
 
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The distribution of the damage chart does not support a rapid climb and fall of the aircraft.
From east to west first houses are damaged - an indication that the 747 descended into the settlement, then they become destroyed - that's where they hit the ground, then there are more damaged houses - debris of the wreckage hitting and causing damage.

If it had climbed and the dived down, I would expect a spot with destroyed houses, and then damage in the direction of flight (Where pieces of the wreckage would keep moving).

Nic
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Old 19th Jan 2017, 13:51
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Originally Posted by donotdespisethesnake View Post
The last two data points are impossible, for more than one reason. If you look at the map of impact damage posted recently by Kulverstukas, the last data point is after the first impact occurred.
Lemme's diagram, which you re-posted, doesn't show that. In fact the position of the easternmost damaged house in Kulverstukas' plan almost exactly coincides with the last data point.

If you ignore the last two data points, and extrapolate the line of descent it is very consistent with the actual impact damage.
If you arbitrarily ignore selected data points, you can prove just about any theory.
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Old 19th Jan 2017, 13:59
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If you arbitrarily ignore selected data points, you can prove just about any theory.
Well considering a fully-loaded 747 at 164 kts, to go from a -320 fpm descent to a +30,000 (!) fpm climb in 1.1 seconds isn't credible and might possibly violate a few laws of physics. So I think excluding the suspect data may be reasonable in this case.
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Old 19th Jan 2017, 14:06
  #171 (permalink)  
 
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What Merriam-Webster has to say about it:


Is irregardless a word?


Irregardless was popularized in dialectal American speech in the early 20th century. Its increasingly widespread spoken use called it to the attention of usage commentators as early as 1927. The most frequently repeated remark about it is that “there is no such word.” There is such a word, however. It is still used primarily in speech, although it can be found from time to time in edited prose. Its reputation has not risen over the years, and it is still a long way from general acceptance. Use regardless instead.



Logically, irregardless means "regardless regardless."
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Old 19th Jan 2017, 14:10
  #172 (permalink)  
 
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I would suggest that areas in the straight line from runway should stay clear in a reasonable distance from an airport fence.
A trip to LHR would be an eye opener.
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Old 19th Jan 2017, 14:23
  #173 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
Lemme's diagram, which you re-posted, doesn't show that. In fact the position of the easternmost damaged house in Kulverstukas' plan almost exactly coincides with the last data point.
So the 747 fell exactly vertically from a few hundred feet up, then magically moved laterally for a few hundred feet? Not happening.

The data points are selected to match reality, not the other way round.

I don't know what alternate universe you are selecting data from.

For clarity : I added red and yellow lines to image from lemme. red = extrapolated trajectory, yellow is impact damage recorded on the ground.
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Old 19th Jan 2017, 14:30
  #174 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by donotdespisethesnake View Post
The data points are selected to match reality, not the other way round.
Reality is what the FDR and CVR will tell us.

Until then, everything is speculation.
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Old 19th Jan 2017, 16:25
  #175 (permalink)  
 
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Reality is what the FDR and CVR will tell us.

Until then, everything is speculation.
There are other views to that

I'm not one to ignore the FDR or CVR as it is a source of facts, but neither do I ignore the condition of the wreckage which is immediately before my eyes. It seems the more we rely on the recorders for answers the more likely that one of them is missing or damaged.

In discussion boards like PPRuNe there would be nothing to discuss for months following a prang if we were to await what gets released from the black boxes.
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Old 19th Jan 2017, 16:42
  #176 (permalink)  
 
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lemme,

In your article posted here:

Satcom Guru: TK6491 747-400F MyCargo/ACT Airlines, Manas Airport (FRU/UCFM) in Bishkek

You seem to show the approach plates and cite the minimums (minima for them grammer police ) for runway 08. Is this intentional? The rest of the discussion reflects an approach to runway 26.
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Old 19th Jan 2017, 16:50
  #177 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by donotdespisethesnake View Post

For clarity : I added red and yellow lines to image from lemme. red = extrapolated trajectory, yellow is impact damage recorded on the ground.
Looks like PFL 101 V2.0
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Old 19th Jan 2017, 17:09
  #178 (permalink)  
 
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Anybody know a 747 with installed AoA indicator or new A350 style thrust indicator? So if they were tracking rwy 08 dme it could possible give a false GS. Again this aircraft doesn't track back course and cannot track LNAV except localizer. Must handfly with marker altitude course track control.
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Old 19th Jan 2017, 17:22
  #179 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by aterpster View Post
What Merriam-Webster has to say about it:


Is irregardless a word?


Irregardless was popularized in dialectal American speech in the early 20th century. Its increasingly widespread spoken use called it to the attention of usage commentators as early as 1927. The most frequently repeated remark about it is that “there is no such word.” There is such a word, however. It is still used primarily in speech, although it can be found from time to time in edited prose. Its reputation has not risen over the years, and it is still a long way from general acceptance. Use regardless instead.



Logically, irregardless means "regardless regardless."
It sure makes sense. It must be a bit like "to be sure to be sure", found in the Irish version of the Oxford Dictionary. Anyway erregardless mabe it is an irreg ular verb.
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Old 19th Jan 2017, 17:30
  #180 (permalink)  
 
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The wreckage state and layout appears to be very similar to the 2010 Afriqiyah Tripoli accident. There it was a late go-around in low visibility coupled with an undershoot, an overshoot would produce same result.
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