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TU154 out of Sochi is missing.

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TU154 out of Sochi is missing.

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Old 31st May 2017, 05:00
  #461 (permalink)  
 
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These seem like very "heavy handed" control inputs. Is the report definitive about no external factor (from loss of some control surface to cargo shift).
Any mention of the CVR ? What was the other pilot doing ?

I am really having an issue with "During this the captain "energetically" (sic) turned the yoke from 10.7 deg right to 53.5 deg left within 1 second" - why would he do that ??
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Old 31st May 2017, 05:40
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Originally Posted by atakacs
Any mention of the CVR ? What was the other pilot doing ?
During taxi Cpt was in trouble locating his position and takeoff course...
...
Dangerous situation starts to unfold at 05:24:42,8 after 7s of takeoff run at 70kmh when Cpt begin emotionally asking the crew about current t/o course. Using f-words and emotional pressure instead of normative SOP distracted Cptn and crew from the procedure.
...
- Due to the actions of the captain, at an altitude of 231 meters, and at a speed of 360 kph the aircraft started descending with vertical overload became less than 1g. Nav commented on exhale "holy ****"
...
- At 05:25:39 they were at an altitude of 218 meters, speed 373 kph, pitch down 1,5 deg and vertical speed -6-8 m/s when the SSOS (horn and indiciation light warning "Danger, ground") sounded, Nav calmly finished "...[flaps] came up, synchronized, ****, what the f**k!?"
...
Crew informed Cptn about warnings and descending of the plane.
...

Link to the scan of the report: https://aviaforum.ru/threads/katastr...1#post-2051670

Last edited by Kulverstukas; 31st May 2017 at 06:04. Reason: Added two more strings
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Old 31st May 2017, 05:43
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So no comment nor control input from co-pilot?
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Old 31st May 2017, 05:54
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This pages are not investigation report, but rather memo with the list of reasons and contributing factors (from second half of the second page on) of the accident, sent out to the air forces regiments. So unfortunately no such details.
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Old 31st May 2017, 10:49
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Holy cow. So they let a captain fly which could not even manage an obstacle free sea level take off at 8 centigrade OAT in a perfect serviceable plane?
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Old 31st May 2017, 12:08
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Originally Posted by Kulverstukas
This pages are not investigation report, but rather memo with the list of reasons and contributing factors (from second half of the second page on) of the accident, sent out to the air forces regiments. So unfortunately no such details.
I guess this being operated as a military flight there will not be a formal report?
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Old 31st May 2017, 12:09
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PIC incapacitation followed by a CRM failure?
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Old 31st May 2017, 13:35
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Originally Posted by atakacs
I guess this being operated as a military flight there will not be a formal report?
It's too important to make no open report now. Also IIRC IAC was involved.
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Old 1st Jun 2017, 03:33
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To sum up the Captains performance:
He seems not to have been in control of himself.
This type behavior is what you might expect from someone who was drunk.
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Old 1st Jun 2017, 05:25
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31/05/17 Investigation officially announced finished by RIAN and reoublished lot of other news agencies, citing Defense ministry. Cause - crew fatigue. (I found no Defense press-release published yet except the leak I posted yesterday).

Announced at 22:00MSK 31/05/2017 at Zvezda TV (Defense ministry channel) https://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_m...12152-tnmr.htm

Last edited by Kulverstukas; 1st Jun 2017 at 09:34. Reason: Source of announcement
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Old 1st Jun 2017, 05:30
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Hmm

Do we have toxicology report for crew?

Did they fly previous rotations that day (would be surprised given the circumstances but one never knows)
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Old 1st Jun 2017, 05:48
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1) Definitely and nothing suspicious was discovered
2) Officially they has a day off but whether they used it for proper rest or to settle their own affairs (it was daytime before night flight, don't forget) is unclear.

PS: Officially it was not regular, but "training flight".
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Old 1st Jun 2017, 11:04
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Does anyone else see similarities with the loss of G ARPI?

- Over-dominant P1, break-down of CRM

- PF incapacitation not recognised quickly (and/or challenged)?

- No hope of recovery at the critical phase of flight.

- Aircraft particularly intolerant of poor low-speed handling.
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Old 1st Jun 2017, 13:01
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The report mentions the somatogravic illusion. It's not a human error, it's a human limitation arising from the fact the human body has not evolved to cope with the sustained acceleration achieved by mechanical transport. It's more common than you would think and a real killer. As it's a function of the acceleration rate, it can affect both pilots equally.
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Old 1st Jun 2017, 13:33
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Do we have toxicology report for crew?
1) Definitely and nothing suspicious was discovered.
Comment: It is my understanding that one of the decomposition products of human tissues is ethyl alcohol. Given the time to recover and identify remains, it is very likely that decomposition of the samples was at an advanced stage, and that no meaningful conclusions could be made with regard to possible alcohol consumption prior to death.
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Old 1st Jun 2017, 15:05
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Originally Posted by Dan Winterland
The report mentions the somatogravic illusion.
No it don't. It's some journalist interpretation. Also please note that there is NO official reports yet, only leaked letter.
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Old 1st Jun 2017, 15:06
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Originally Posted by Machinbird
Comment: It is my understanding that one of the decomposition products of human tissues is ethyl alcohol. Given the time to recover and identify remains, it is very likely that decomposition of the samples was at an advanced stage, and that no meaningful conclusions could be made with regard to possible alcohol consumption prior to death.
IIRC PIC was one of the first bodies recovered
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Old 1st Jun 2017, 18:20
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Kulver says nothing suspicious was discovered to suggest captain may have been under the influence of drugs or alcohol or a combination of both, but given that this was an aircraft and not a Akula class sub, has an intentional act been considered and totally ruled out.
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Old 1st Jun 2017, 20:40
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This whole thing has echoes of Perm, Kazan and Jaroslavl all "rolled" into one.

He even came close to inverting the whole shabang before it became a submarine.
Only the Perm numpty managed to pull off that trick,while neatly jumping the transib.

More's the point most of the time the A/C were perfect working models with nothing wrong.
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Old 2nd Jun 2017, 14:20
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The theory of a drunk PIC is a bit difficult to digest, IMHO...
The AC was making a STOP to refuel.
@Kulvestukas ensured no extra cargo and no extra pax were loaded except FUEL.
The crew was piloting from Moscow and the procedure seemed to be under regular conditions. If any (or two, or the three) were drunk, things could be difficult to make a night flight under such conditions (first leg).
If the PIC (or another crew member, or all) went "wet" during the stop at Sochi, could make it possible, but apparently the nav was on duty and acting correctly.
Some old leak also told us the FO said (in a correct manner) the PIC something like: "we're falling, commander" (this read in this thread, months ago).
So it's left the PIC alone to be drunk.
Drunk enough to make a flyable AC go south? And the other two crew members went lambishly to death knowing the PIC was intoxicated? Were there any clues in the cockpit or ATC recordings to show a displeasure behaviour, this meaning something suspicious in the PIC's voice?
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