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TU154 out of Sochi is missing.

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TU154 out of Sochi is missing.

Old 4th May 2017, 16:33
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Originally Posted by atakacs
Understood.

Presumably the aircraft initially departed with full tanks?
Planned route was Chkalovsky - Mozdok - Syria. En-route they was diverted to Sochi. So presumably crew recalculated fuel and ordered refueling. Also there was some indication that crew was aware - in the leaked audio recording from radioscanner at the plane-tower communication Cptn added "heavy" to callsign. They also decided to takeoff from the treshold which is quite unusual for this rwy.
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Old 4th May 2017, 17:16
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TU 154 Heavy??

How odd that the crew should add 'Heavy' in their ATC comms. The lower band of the ICAO Heavy category is 136t so what did they mean as the 154's MTOW is around 100t isn't it?
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Old 4th May 2017, 18:24
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Yes, certified MTOW of the B-2 is 98t (the newer M had it increased to 102)
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Old 5th May 2017, 18:55
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The communication was little different. All was on Russian, it was an answer for ATC lady question - something like this: (We want to departure) from beginning (of RWY because we are) heavy.
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Old 5th May 2017, 19:21
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I wonder whether a grand piano or two were loaded, along with the Alexandrov Ensemble.
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Old 6th May 2017, 15:55
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Not nitpicking, just to be correct on the terminology. You can have a PTOW well below MTOW and vice versa.
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Old 6th May 2017, 16:16
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Gearleaver

Ehh,, a what?
Please elaborate. And whatever it is I like to learn.
The Dutch, by the way, has a good word for Nitpicking: Miren-Nauken.
Hard to interpret without censor.
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Old 6th May 2017, 16:19
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PTOW (performance limited TOW) may be well below MTOW (structural limit).
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Old 6th May 2017, 17:09
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Folks, we talk here about a see level take off with no indication so far on any engine failure at 8 centigrade OAT. So you try to make the point that with a few percent above MTOW that plane will fall out of the sky?
That's almost Alaskan conditions where even the FAA does allow for a 10 percent overload over "normal" lower 48 MTOW.

Every 60 degrees steep turn is a 2x MTOW maneuver. Never done in your life?
So don't set the rumor mill for any non flying jurno on high gear.
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Old 6th May 2017, 19:55
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We should keep on mind that Svyetlana Petrenko, the speaker of investigating committee, declares previous month that the overweight theory doesn't correspondent to established actual conditions.
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Old 6th May 2017, 22:35
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Originally Posted by Karel_x
The communication was little different. All was on Russian, it was an answer for ATC lady question - something like this: (We want to departure) from beginning (of RWY because we are) heavy.
Thanks, that makes a lot more sense.
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Old 8th May 2017, 14:45
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To lay all these overweight rumors to rest, I checked my old notes (all figures metric tons, for TU5 B-2 model):


OEW ~51.5 tons (depending on cabin configuretion, number of crew, etc.)
MAX FUEL 37.6 tons (meaning all tanks full)
MTOW 98 tons


This means that with full fuel tanks the permissible maximum payload is ~10 tons, that is exactly what you would expect for 98 passengers and their baggage (an orchestra's instruments in their protective cases are bulky but not particularly heavy, the luggage would fill the holds to maximum volume leaving room for little else). The ATC communications confirms that the crew knew they were at/near MTOW.
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Old 8th May 2017, 17:04
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98 passengers and their baggage (an orchestra's instruments in their protective cases are bulky but not particularly heavy
Don't forget that except the ensemble there was couple TV crews with their equipment and Dr.Lisa (Russian F. Nightingale) with unknown amount of humanitarian aid.

OEW ~51.5 tons (depending on cabin configuretion
This particular a/c has it's first passenger compartment converted into saloon which reduced it's seat capacity.
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Old 10th May 2017, 18:13
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Tail heavy?
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Old 11th May 2017, 05:43
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...unknown amount of humanitarian aid
Ah, I did forget about that...

Tail heavy?
Very difficult to achieve with the kown loads. I remember that even if you had the rear cabin full (~100 pax) and loaded all the bags that could fit in the rear hold, the bags that remained (~50%) loaded in the front brought the CG to within limits. It only started becoming tricky with a full payload and a light fuel load, where CG was getting close to the front limit, and with the graph being V shaped it moved even closer as fuel was used up.
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Old 24th May 2017, 12:12
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Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu blamed those who "spread unverified information and speculations" and said that investigation results will be published "soon".

Last edited by Kulverstukas; 24th May 2017 at 12:31.
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Old 30th May 2017, 21:44
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Latest update.

Totally and fully human factor.

4 pages in russian of final report are available. Must I publish them?
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Old 30th May 2017, 22:12
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Can you summarize it?
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Old 30th May 2017, 22:20
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It's bit longish and there is deep night here. In short - cpt lost orientation and CFIT plane into the sea
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Old 30th May 2017, 22:50
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Loss of situational awareness by the captain.

- They took off at 05:25:10 with 4 deg pitch up and with 300 kph speed.

- After gear up the pitch increased up to 15 deg pitch up at which point the captain started pushing the yoke away from himself.

- at 05:25:29 at an altitude of 157 meters flaps up was selected (although during the briefing this was to be at an altitude of 500 meters). During this the captain was still pushing the yoke away from himself (ie: less pitch)

- Due to the actions of the captain, at an altitude of 231 meters, and at a speed of 360 kph the aircraft started descending.

- At 05:25:39 they were at an altitude of 218 meters, speed 373 kph, pitch down 1,5 deg and vertical speed -6-8 m/s when the SSOS (horn and indiciation light warning "Danger, ground")

- During this the captain "energetically" (sic) turned the yoke from 10.7 deg right to 53.5 deg left within 1 second, after which he pressed the left foot control by 1/2, while also pulling the control yoke towards himself

- The aircraft continued descending due to the excessive roll

- at 05:25:46 they were at 90 meters altitude, speed 464 kph, left roll 27 deg, vertical speed -20m/s, and 2 deg pitch down

- at an altitude of 67 meters with a left roll of 35 deg the light indication "Left roll angle excessive" was lit, and after 1.2 seconds at an altitude of 34 meters with a speed of 514 kph the yoke was turned to the right to it's maximum and pushed away to it's neutral position

- at 05:25:49 after 73 seconds since the take off roll started, at 1270 meters from the coastline the aircraft crashed with a speed of 540 kph, left roll approx. 50 deg, course 220 deg, -4 deg pitch down, vertial speed -30m/s

Apologies for the imperfect translation.
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