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TU154 out of Sochi is missing.

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TU154 out of Sochi is missing.

Old 10th Feb 2017, 21:17
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CAGI was not reportedly asked to do any expert works concerning the disaster. Near the CAGI, south of Moscow at Zhukovky, also Gromov Flight Research Institute (LII) is located. Analysis of FDR and CVR did not help to find the reason of disaster, no system failure was found.
At this moment, LII specialists work on computer model of fatal flight. They use mathematics model of Tu-154B and recorded flight parameters from FDR (hight, IAS, angles, controls...) and they are trying to find the set of factors (TOW, CG, flaps falure etc.) that is fully compatible with actual data from FDR. For this reason they may be trying to do some special test in wind tunnel of CAGI (partly retracted gears, flaps..?).

In parallel, mechanical analysis of debris are provided to find any track of in-flight failure.
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Old 10th Feb 2017, 23:41
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Thanks Karel_x,

I may be missing something, but so far I still did not recognise any debris from the left wing in any picture I have seen.
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Old 11th Feb 2017, 09:52
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I think it's shredded in such small parts that is not interesting for journalists to photograph.

Also JFYI reports are constantly published since daily or weekly that rescue operation continues and N a/c pars and M body fragments rescued from the sea floor.
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Old 11th Feb 2017, 19:04
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Few days ago there were non-confirmed information in media. Based on FDR record, events reportedly developed as follows:

- in 3rd minute of the flight, Tu5 was at 450mASL
- first warning event was a signal from sensors of directional stabilising system (some kind of plane asymmetry?)
- Tu5 begun a sharp descent (supposed flaps problem)
- AoA exceeds limits
- The crew tried tu do a turn for a return to the airport
- First high speed contact with water had a tail part, immediately followed the right wing

It is not clear how certain this rumour is.
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Old 11th Feb 2017, 20:35
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signal from sensors of directional stabilising system
Would that be another description for the Yaw Damper?
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Old 12th Feb 2017, 11:37
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Originally Posted by Karel_x View Post
Few days ago there were non-confirmed information in media.

It is not clear how certain this rumour is.
I'd like to check where it came from as it's doesn't adds up to any info we have now from other sources...
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Old 12th Feb 2017, 13:50
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Originally Posted by AN2 Driver View Post
Would that be another description for the Yaw Damper?
Yes, I suppose that the sensor is one of three axis gyroscopes. I used the original wording.

I'd like to check where it came from as it's doesn't adds up to any info we have now from other sources...
The original source maybe Life.ru:
https://life.ru/t/%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2...ia_ughla_ataki

You can find it at many sites (all in Russian):
??????????? ??????? ??????? ?????????????? ??-154 ? Pzik
Минобороны: Ту-154 упал из-за ошибки второго пилота » Svopi.ru - Независимый информационный портал России и Белоруссии
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Old 12th Feb 2017, 16:07
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Sorry, Karel, all this is crap is outdated and based at speculations which were not backed by any "official" or reliable evidence (such as debris photos, press releases and briefings of Def Ministry or MAk, or even "first hands leaks", not reprints through long chain of sites).

PS: Life mentioned AoA warning (which is consistent with their "leak of CVR recordings") and other two are just perfect example of brainless journalie where they tried paraphrase it in their own words and failed.

Last edited by Kulverstukas; 12th Feb 2017 at 16:17.
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Old 13th Feb 2017, 06:40
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OK Kulverstukas, it may be fully journalistic speculation or fantasy.

Nevertheless I think that they must hear somewhere the sentence about "directional stability sensor signal". I don't suppose that they can fabricate it by themselves. It is too concrete and too specialised. But it is not clear what exactly it means. So, IF it is true, the plane had to do some kind of rotation movement around vertical axis. Maybe because of some aerodynamic asymmetry. Flap asymmetry, gears retraction asymmetry, some cover? We can find possible relation with the information that some additional aerodynamic research may be done in the wind tunnel of CAGI.

Leaked CVR record was never confirmed, but they started investigation about the origin of leakage. So I believe that it is more or less actual. There are the two acoustic warning signals recorded. One of them can be AoA warning. I am not sure that Tu5 is equipped with TAWS. Have you any idea what the second signal is?
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Old 13th Feb 2017, 10:17
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OMG, Karel, both links you posted as example are just mindless reprint of some equally doubtful source with even wrong spelling of Lubertsy (Lubentsy ? ) where Airforces Institute is located and picture too stupid to even laugh about. If you make Yandex search of "Directional stability sensor signal" (in russian, exactly as they put it in the articles) all results are just from traffic-baiting cites and third grade "news consolidator" web sites.

Last edited by Kulverstukas; 13th Feb 2017 at 13:06.
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Old 13th Feb 2017, 19:32
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Kulverstukas, I am surely not an advocate of life.ru.

I commented it: "Non-confirmed information in media....not clear how certain this rumour is."

You wanted to investigate a credibility of it, so I gave you the links and wrote that the origin source is probably life.ru. I explained what piece of information looks interesting for me. Yes, it is poor speculation, so I introduce it: "IF it is true..." That's all.

You evaluate it as nonsense. Probably you are right .

PS
I am sorry, I found now that link to the original source was not correct. It should be:
https://life.ru/t/%D1%8D%D0%BA%D1%81...moshchiu_truby

Last edited by Karel_x; 13th Feb 2017 at 20:01.
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Old 14th Feb 2017, 06:22
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Karel sorry if my answers looks a bit rude, but we are just fed up here with nonsense published in any media by brainless attention seekers.

Your last link it seems is full of hints and leaked info, if you strip it from usual misinterpretations and imagination. Not that there is something new in it, everything was published before but in this article they managed to consolidate what was said up to date. However, I'd totally dismiss last part with "Directional stability sensor signal" because until now it's not backed up with any other confirmation from independent "leaked source".
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Old 22nd Feb 2017, 19:07
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After computer modelling, investigators plan to provide several real flights with identical plane with test pilots in cockpit and engineers aboard. First of them will be provided in daylight for good orientation. They will try to repeat most of conditions of fatal flight and record data from sensors. It should be done at Zhukovsky Intl Airport, from the longest RWY 12/30 (5402mх120m).

At the crush site, divers are continuing their work.
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Old 27th Feb 2017, 15:50
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Air photo of the fragments collecting site:

http://bloknot-krasnodar.ru/upload/i...plwmsocg-2.jpg

The left wing is much more fragmented, it looks that she has a left roll in the moment of high speed (510 km/h) water impact.

(In the original article its author speculate about explosion)

Last edited by Karel_x; 27th Feb 2017 at 16:05.
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Old 27th Feb 2017, 18:33
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Is it just me or is the right horizontal stabilizer pretty much missing?
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Old 8th Mar 2017, 19:15
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Old 14th Mar 2017, 05:06
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Today Kommersant newspaper printed sensational article that until last second flight was under pilot control an that accident was CFIT possibly because Cpt lost orientation.

UPD: Somathogravic illusion...

Last edited by Kulverstukas; 14th Mar 2017 at 09:29.
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Old 14th Mar 2017, 13:58
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This story posted (in English) at the Moscow Times appears to stem from the same source as that posted by Kulverstukas, though it is much shortened.
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Old 15th Mar 2017, 21:46
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Originally Posted by Kulverstukas View Post
Today Kommersant newspaper printed sensational article that until last second flight was under pilot control an that accident was CFIT possibly because Cpt lost orientation.

UPD: Somathogravic illusion...
Lady speaker of Investigation committee, Svyetlana Petrenko, declared that the hypothesis ... are not based on facts and are only personal meanings of its authors.
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Old 26th Apr 2017, 18:29
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Latest update posted today as another "leak from the source inside investigation body". Plane was overloaded - instead of 98 t it takes off in Adler with TOW=110 t. Plane was overloaded at Chkalovsky, but it was fueled in Sochi/Adler and presumably crew was not aware about real weight of the cargo, so they ordered top filling.
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