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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

Old 4th Nov 2015, 23:24
  #1001 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
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Kulverstukas

Thanks for latest images,

On the 2nd image there is an oblong panel just below the skin level with what looks to be a part of the screwjack top end going through it.

On the image below I think that the pushed up panel is the same one (same colour).

Question must be what forced it up there and where is the outer skin with the TP fixing eyes (see 2nd image below), and of course if it was a blast of airpressure did that then dislodge and break the TP




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Old 4th Nov 2015, 23:28
  #1002 (permalink)  
 
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auntyice

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Catering
Having just retired after many years in the business I always felt that whilst passenger bags were screened and accounted for, most flights travelled with unaccompanied baggage namely catering boxes and carts.
On short turnarounds they are lifted from the hold into a high lift truck and on longer turnarounds from the off airport catering facility.
One wonders how efficient the security screening is at somewhere like Sharm.
A small explosive in the rear galley would be catastrophic.
Ref my post yesterday, I think you will find the aircraft was on the ground for 12 hours so catering most likely picked up from a facility off airport.

A small bomb in a catering trolley in the rear galley would create a double blast effect when the rearwards blast is deflected forward by the strong RPB so possibly splitting the airframe at the weekest point.

Pure speculation I know but when the focus is on passenger screening it's worth noting where the threat could possibly come from.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 23:30
  #1003 (permalink)  
 
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airport security

Everyone is talking about airport security at Sharm but one has to realize that there are security flaws at every airport everywhere, worldwide. There is no way and there will be no way to ever plug every hole. A new hole will appear and to mention a favorite saying on this forum:

"When the holes line up".......

There's a dutch reporter who has a very "cheesy" tv program but manages to expose these holes at Schiphol (AMS) many times over. Even when he is recognized and is under extra scrutiny. It was fairly easy for him to smuggle a fake bom airside posing as an employee and using a fake (copied) ID.

Fake Bomb Smuggled onto US-Bound Plane - AOL Travel Ideas

Have to agree with previous poster though, Sharm will probably be the safest airport for weeks to come.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 23:32
  #1004 (permalink)  
 
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Explosive Trace Detection

Are there any Explosives (Bomb materials) that don't naturally leave a chemical/forensic trace?

What's the trace of a lithium ion based explosive (mobile phone device) inside a compact non-security screened food container.

Lastly is there any worldwide cases of ETD methods being difficult to find traces and relying on other sources to conclude?

I mention this as surely there was evidence of this on other events, and they aren't assuming all this based on Military satellite.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 23:32
  #1005 (permalink)  
 
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We are living in a different world.

Although there are no formal authorised announcements confirming this was a bomb, we have multiple "off-the-record" comments from different countries and we also have (formally approved) bans on travel. This is highly unlikely without a high degree of confidence this was the result of a bomb.

It appears one source of information was a heat signature detected from a US satellite. Most likely SBIRS, which is claimed to scan the earths surface once every 10 seconds.
Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS) · Lockheed Martin

Aviation Week's Unprecedented Peek Behind Sbirs Veil | Space content from Aviation Week
In less than 10 sec., every point on the face of the Earth is imaged by the U.S. Air Force’s newest infrared (IR) missile warning satellite system.
It is likely that SBIRS played a part in MH17 analysis.

Although we have yet to find MH370, it is notable that satellite data (albeit a different type of satellite) provided the first clue MH370 was more than a simple technical problem but instead was something more complex. It was the Inmarsat data that prompted Malaysia to confirm the plane had turned back - even though Malaysia was apparently aware of this but inexplicably continued to search in the South China Sea. SBIRS apparently contributed information to the MH370 analysis, although no further information is available beyond the comment "providing technical data to the intelligence community."

Yep, its a different world.

The question I have is how will Putin respond to this.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 23:36
  #1006 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Kulverstukas View Post

21:00 (04.11.2015)*|*

From 17:00

Look at row of seats at 17:50

good to see as well as drones and choppers good old boots on the ground are spread out searching for small things , both personal and technical
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 23:40
  #1007 (permalink)  
 
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Firstly, Kulverstukas.. spasiba bolshoi... ochen horosho Informatsiya.

After looking at the recent UK pronouncement that this is indeed likely to be a bomb it seems that this conclusion was reached primarily from intercepted communications intelligence and/or human assets on the ground, and not the accident investigation team.

I think they may have forced Russia's hand here to come out and state what they know from the data they have in their possession... likely tomorrow morning.

Living in Moscow this is a HUGE story, and already people are baying for blood, so if proved don't expect any RoE to be adhered to, even loosely.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 23:46
  #1008 (permalink)  
 
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Galley or Lavatories .....

" 22 May 1962 - Continental Airlines Flight 11
The first commercial jet flight to be sabotaged was Continental 11 en route from Chicago to Kansas City to Los Angeles. The Boeing 707 carried 45 people (37 passengers, 8 crew) when a dynamite bomb hidden in a towel container under the washbasin in the right rear lavatory detonated. The blast caused the plane's tail to break away and the aircraft went out of control, crashing near Unionville, Missouri, and taking the lives of everyone aboard."


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Old 5th Nov 2015, 00:01
  #1009 (permalink)  
 
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Heathrow:

The detection technology is always improving...

See Figure 7

Supersensitive fingerprinting of explosives by chemically modified nanosensors arrays : Nature Communications : Nature Publishing Group

Last edited by thcrozier; 5th Nov 2015 at 00:25. Reason: Point to Figure 7
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 00:01
  #1010 (permalink)  
 
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why initial event happened on the left side (speculation)

I owe explanation to Kulverstukas on what basis I speculated that initial event happened on left side. To be more exact, close to fuel tank and at the floor level. Behind wings.

1. Rear seated passengers heavy burns according to autopsies.
2. Rear pressure bulkhead still seem to sit at its installed position.
3. large piece of missing fuselage was found from right side. Actually this piece has parts of cargo compartment floor and parts of ceiling, thus it is more than just right side. Here is where this piece belongs:



other view of that same piece:


Simply put, this piece is too large to rip off first. It would be rather that last piece to give away.

Thus, peeling initiation event started on the opposite side.
That initial event should have ripped off some skin on left side and opened up a fuel tank. resulting air-fuel mixture should have contacted something hot in order to get ignited and keep burning in low pressure environment. That created firestorm inside the remaining fuselage. - Badly burned people.
Thus, first and farthest pieces from cockpit to find, should be pieces from the left side fuselage around the wings.

Initial fire continued to burn even after tail separation and rear fuselage destruction. I don't know if this is coincidence or it is due to falling attitude but left side of underside fuselage is sooted up to cockpit.



Also there is an evidence of inflight fire. Probably mostly during falling sequence around central fuel tank.
For example this piece is from under second door on the right is badly burned. Burning could have happened only before impact.
There is similar piece (around second door) from left side showing similar burning marks.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 00:09
  #1011 (permalink)  
 
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Prada said:-

2. Rear pressure bulkhead still seem to sit at its installed position.


how do you reach that conclusion,, which images?
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 00:10
  #1012 (permalink)  
 
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I am still interested in the history of the aircraft as I think a hidden flaw or previous aircraft history could still be the reason.


Going through the posts there are all sorts of theories, but I haven't seen anything that I would describe as definitely sinister. Firstly, of the images of the wreckage indicates near vertical impact. The front half of the aircraft and wings all burnt out. Not surprising. Also would explain heat signature from satellite. Mid section indicates no burn damage. Page 22 image shows door left 3 and surround, Prada's post shows area around door right 3. Tail section- I cannot make out any burn marks. As for puncturing on various parts, this thing hit a rocky ground at a high speed. The sooty looking APU housing, this is how they look when they are not washed.
As for the comment from a doctor in Glacier pilot's post about passenger burns to the rear of the aircraft but not the forward ones, I don't know how anyone seated from row 1-20 did not have burns. I have not personally seen a map of victims seats and autopsy results.


As for the political side of this accident, it is a very powerful argument considering the state of things in the region.


Either way, still a very sad event.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 00:11
  #1013 (permalink)  
 
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Prada, well done! I'll go to bed for today (it's 3am here), so let us hope tomorrow we will have more food for our thoughts.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 00:17
  #1014 (permalink)  
 
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seat burned

I wonder if these seats show burn marks?

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Old 5th Nov 2015, 00:17
  #1015 (permalink)  
 
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In the US News today

The US Pentagon reported that the satellite saw two heat events, one while the airplane was at altitude, and one upon impact with the ground.

"There is a definite feeling it was an explosive device planted in luggage or somewhere on the plane," the official, who is familiar with the latest U.S. intelligence analysis of the crash said today.

Based on the same intelligence, the U.S. belief is that ISIS or an ISIS-affiliated group is responsible for the attack, the official said.

The British government announced Wednesday that it had "become concerned that the plane may well have been brought down by an explosive device."

A UK aviation team is traveling to inspect the Sharm airport to look at whether there were proper security measures at the airport and the various scenarios, by which, an explosive device could have made it to the Russian airliner "including a person or in cargo," according to the British transport minister.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 00:18
  #1016 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Kulverstukas View Post
Just side note. Head of Investigation committee of RF flew back home from Cairo today without chances to visit crash site - yesterday he was not allowed because paperwork was not done and today because of severe weather at site.
Wait, what? "Paperwork"? The chief investigator was forbidden to visit the accident site because the right paperwork wasn't in place?

I'm astonished that hasn't been picked up and run with by others. Does that not speak volumes about the entire situation?

1. The Egyptians want to run things their way, controlling access and information and perhaps outcomes... and...

2. They believe they can treat a Russian chief investigator thus with impunity.

Interesting to say the least.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 00:28
  #1017 (permalink)  
 
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"Who cleans the lavatories on these commerical a/c ?"

Local cleaning contractors.

Very good question. In an environment where bribes and "favors" are common, someone "always" needs to check out the food. Working the ramp or service areas, the food is always watched. Possibility of getting a device discovered is high, and not by security.

No one is interested in the honey truck, or the seat scrubbers. They want nothing to do with the lav trash, or any cleaning equipment or chemicals.

Hierarchy of contractors on the ramp is food service, fuelers, cabin cleaners, .......then lav cleaners/services.

Unwritten 3rd shift ramp rule: Food is fine, leave no evidence or mess, DO NOT TOUCH the BOOZE!
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 00:29
  #1018 (permalink)  
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A UK aviation team is traveling to inspect the Sharm airport to look at whether there were proper security measures at the airport and the various scenarios, by which, an explosive device could have made it to the Russian airliner "including a person or in cargo," according to the British transport minister.
Cargo would be my guess.

I work in that industry. Lots of holes that can be exploited.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 00:36
  #1019 (permalink)  
 
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Prada,
Looks like the seats are covered in dust not soot.


Clark y.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 00:36
  #1020 (permalink)  
 
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RPB quetion

2. Rear pressure bulkhead still seem to sit at its installed position.

how do you reach that conclusion,, which images?
First of all, there is no visible damage around RPB. No peeling. I think you have seen plenty of images of tail section.

Then one HS was found broken off just outside of the fuselage. RPB explosion could not do that.


Also, if you try to peek into tail section there you can not see any gaping holes. Instead it looks like RPB sitting there.
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