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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

Old 4th Nov 2015, 15:10
  #861 (permalink)  
 
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I stopped reading when the author claimed to use WAAS in Australia in 2011
And the difference between GPS Altitude and Baro Altitude is a red herring anyway, because what we mostly care about here are the altitude changes, not the absolute altitude value be it GPS or Baro.

Which is why the experiment RYFQB did (see chart a few pages back) was neat because it showed that altitude changes computed based on the FR24 GPS vertical speed matched very closely with the recorded pressure altitude changes.

So even though the FR24 pressure altitudes are unreliable past a certain point, we can reconstruct corrected altitudes with some confidence by using the computed GPS data (which obviously is not affected by pressure data errors).
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 15:18
  #862 (permalink)  
 
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More than 900 posts on this thread, and I have read and tried to understand every one of them.

I would like to nominate Kulverstukas as the singular contributor who has made the most sense of this terrible affair.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 15:24
  #863 (permalink)  
 
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For Double Back:

A similar accident - Lockheed Lodestar runaway trim in cruise, resulting negative G load failed the wing spar. The NTSB report is around somewhere, but here's a summary: ASN Aircraft accident Lockheed 18-56-24 Lodestar N1000F Lake Milton, OH
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 15:33
  #864 (permalink)  
 
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A similar accident?

For Double Back:

A similar accident - Lockheed Lodestar runaway trim in cruise, resulting negative G load failed the wing spar.
The wing fell off.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 15:37
  #865 (permalink)  
 
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first drone footage

Sinai crash: Russia extends search area and uses drones - BBC News
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 15:38
  #866 (permalink)  
 
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 15:39
  #867 (permalink)  
 
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on possible culture clashes

Former FAA official: 'Clash of cultures' in crash probe - BBC News

I find it a bit early to talk about culture clashes. Just like in the investigations themselves, let's get as many facts as possible first.

A number of actions of the Egyptians can only be applauded. We have not seen any images of victims. And passenger luggage has been collected and guarded. Quite a difference from MH17 for instance. Next to that you can only have respect for the (especially the first) people on the ground being confronted with it all. From the ordinary soldier to the investigators and supporting teams.

Last edited by A0283; 4th Nov 2015 at 15:52.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 15:47
  #868 (permalink)  
 
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drone use2 and search expansion

Sinai crash: Russia extends search area and uses drones - BBC News

Isn't this the first recorded (flying) drone use during the investigation of a large commercial airliner accident?
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 15:52
  #869 (permalink)  
 
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A0283 with all my respect for your contribution, first link is cut version of LifeNews video from Nov, 2th and second one is another example of "only we western people newer lie and are God sent angels at the Earth".

To all other participants - can we concentrate on technical part of investigation and stop speculate about evil Putin's slaves and mendacious Egyptians? There is whole Jet Blast forum for it.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 15:52
  #870 (permalink)  
 
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Nope, a Bluefin-21 was deployed in the search for MH370 last year.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 15:58
  #871 (permalink)  
 
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here is a telling photo above (the 3rd, showing the engine). The Engine pylon is bent upwards. That component is strong enough to support half the weight of the plane without deformation if a landing gear fails, a good 45 tons. Engine weighs roughly 2 tons. Rest is maths...
Same forces have shorn off the fan
The part that is bent upwards is the soft part of the pylon ahead of the wing. The beefy structure is way behind it.

probably this bent when the engine hit tailpipe first at an impact angle. Anything going on with rotating fan loading reacts out in the bearing supports and not the pylon. (no math was used )
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 15:58
  #872 (permalink)  
 
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Shorn HS

I find it odd that the discovery of the HS pieces (I still haven't seen pics of both) has been met with quick general prune agreement that they failed in direct shear due to aerodynamic forces from tumbling at speed....while at the same time no one disputes a nose down rotation, negative G tuck by the fuselage minus tail at the very same airspeed, where the wings very apparently did NOT fold up....AND that forces on the wings were sufficient to strip of both engines off the wings. Why did the wings remain intact spanwise?

Also, if the HS pieces failed cleanly in shear, does that mean the center HS box section remained in place? Pics of that assembly would be nice.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 16:22
  #873 (permalink)  
 
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@Leightman on HS and ...

Leightman uptill now I have not seen pictures with the other half or the central box structure of the THS. Rudder still missing too. So of course too early to have any clear conclusions ... just a longlist of preliminary possible scenario's ...

Perhaps the rudder, and especially where it is found, will turn out to be more important in the end. So hope it is found by the ongoing search and hi res pictures published.

Wing in one part is indeed striking. Perhaps not the center wing box and large inner parts of the winghalves staying together, but not losing substantial parts of the outer winghalves. Maybe part of the reason is that the engines came clean off before a structural limit on the wings was exceeded. You also wonder, that if the plane rotated, that it rotated in a manner and at a rate which generated relatively low dynamic loads. While (not a judgement at all, just trying to indicate different interests) 'flying only' pilots (not engineering pilots) often state that discussion on issues like these are not 'for them', it is challenging from an engineering point of view.

Important for elimination of scenario's is where and when the rudder, THS and engines broke off, and in what order. So the more we have on these items the better.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 16:23
  #874 (permalink)  
 
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The plane's voice recorder was damaged in the crash, preventing it from being analysed,
Doesn't looks so



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Old 4th Nov 2015, 16:25
  #875 (permalink)  
 
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Perhaps the rudder, and especially where it is found, will turn out to be more important in the end.
In what I'm aware of, all major parts of plane was found, so I think that VS and HS parts are not missing, we just doesn't have photos of them.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 16:32
  #876 (permalink)  
 
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Kulverstukas, is your photo of the FDR or the CVR?

Is this a picture of the other recorder?
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 16:35
  #877 (permalink)  
 
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@Kulver - definition of missing

For me "missing" = "evidence (validated pictures or validated statements) not available in the public domain".

We are not in a position to have any idea what the searchers and investigators have found.

A "validated picture"= Picture that helps to identify a part with more than say 90% certainty. Which means you generally need good ones, more than one, and preferably context and geographic position.

Example is the APU itself. A number of posters expect that it is in the tailcone. But I have not seen a picture of the inside of the cone and no picture of the APU unit. So, APU not validated. Same with the nose landinggear.

A "validated statement" = official statement by more than one investigation party or official spokes person supported by as much as possible pilot, engineering, manufacturing and operations information and experience.

Last edited by A0283; 4th Nov 2015 at 17:03.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 16:36
  #878 (permalink)  
 
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For the last day, some of the reports coming out near the investigation appear to be from La La land.
I certainly hope that the "fix" is not in and that we will hear an objective and logical analysis of the accident that will encompass all the observed data.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 16:38
  #879 (permalink)  
 
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AirScotia it's clearly reads "solid state cockpit voice recorder". And at your photo it's definitely other recorder, as it has completely different layout.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 16:42
  #880 (permalink)  
 
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@Kulver - definition of missing
Awww, I get it. Agreed, its more challenging for armchair detectives to make right conclusion before official team and with limited access to evidence. But not impossible, At least RedWings rwy excursion case was solved in forums long before even preliminary official report was published.
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