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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

Old 4th Nov 2015, 17:39
  #921 (permalink)  
 
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Kulverstukas and A0283:

Although the engine in the still above and the one in the video look different to me (though it's not easy to be sure), I think that the fan assembly in the still is the same fan assembly shown at about 2.17 in the video, but from a different angle. Or are we looking at 2 separate fan assemblies do you think?
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 17:40
  #922 (permalink)  
 
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Stop Kulverstukas video Post 923 at 2:23 full screen. Look at the top right of what appears to be the turbine section of this engine. Is that a big hole? Turbine disintegration maybe?
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 17:43
  #923 (permalink)  
 
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@AGBagb
My impression is that nothing in the photos is screaming out major engine failure but of course photos can be deceptive and incomplete...
First impression is indeed 'no screams'. But it would help if we had more pictures. Especially one top down, and of course turning the engine over. With the present pictures you cannot see anything of the HP turbine and the aft end of the engine. It may be buried, but it appears to be a rocky ground with little rock and little sand or grit expelled backwards, and the fan and LP area appears to be crushed and not dug in. If they overturn the engine you would get a better answer.

The 'supposed' engine failure would have to be catastrophic, which means fast, and causing extensive damage to the engine ... and probably significant damage to the wing too. At this stage the pictures do not point in that direction. The wing halves look pretty complete. The cowling components are found close to the engine. Very prelim of course to say that, but still ...

Last edited by A0283; 4th Nov 2015 at 17:54.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 17:55
  #924 (permalink)  
 
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Airport checks

Not flew out of Sharm but last year we flew out of Hurghada (as SLF). Security checks on UK pax airlines were more thorough than Russian airlines, with one more additional check before boarding. Saying that it was a Friday (prove me wrong but the height of religious week)so there did seem to be lots of free flowing staff around without door security codes etc to be conducting their prayers.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 17:58
  #925 (permalink)  
 
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Yes, if there was a small bomb the initial detonation would probably not be picked up even by an IR satellite, but the fireball that follows would be, even for a smallish device, especially because it would have occurred when the sun was only just rising so the 'background' would have been relatively cool.

Also, if any device was placed adjacent to say the central fuel tank the chain reaction would, probably within milliseconds, lead to a very visible heat flash.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 18:01
  #926 (permalink)  
 
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Where Next? Morocco? That also has got to be a big weak spot for European flyers.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 18:09
  #927 (permalink)  
 
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In the same way that a burglar can get in anywhere if they are determined and skilled enough, likewise you can never totally secure an airport, or a plane. It's a matter of degree of risk, the number of layers of security and degrees of trust.

In the extreme, quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

Channel 4 News is right now strongly suggesting the bomb-on-board theory. ITN is not known for jumping the gun.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 18:09
  #928 (permalink)  
 
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SSH Securiry

I arrived there about 12 hours after the crash. Passengers exited the aircraft onto the tarmac and are driven in buses to a large hallway. They are observed by only one guard. At the time, it occurred to me that security is less than air tight.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 18:12
  #929 (permalink)  
 
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One of the spinners is clearly sooted (would have to check which one), while the engine itself is away from a 'burned area'.
a lot of Black Sand around this Fan, so probably burnt after it hit the ground. (A very untypical burnmark for inflight tough.)

An to answer your question about burning inflight: It does burn inflight at a certain Area. Thats the principle...

Stop Kulverstukas video Post 923 at 2:23 full screen. Look at the top right of what appears to be the turbine section of this engine. Is that a big hole? Turbine disintegration maybe?
Its definitely not the turbine department. Even if, the hole wouldnt be shaped like this after turbine separation.

What we can see ist that the Blades overall are in pretty good shape. Which leads to nearly only two possible Conclusions:
1: Magic.
2: Turbines stopped working in Air, which means Fuel was out(possibly in combination with friction), which possibly means that the Engines separated from the body at an early stage of the event.

Last edited by Sokol; 4th Nov 2015 at 19:17.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 18:13
  #930 (permalink)  
 
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UK Government warning

Current position and wording of assessment after the COBRA meeting today would seem to indicate that UK has confirmed suspicions of a bomb although they aren't going to pre-empt the official investigation.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 18:18
  #931 (permalink)  
 
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Dear colleague armchair detectives!

Can I summarize what we know so far and make brief description of events?

1) Plane was in relatively good condition and maintained adequately at least.
2) Crew is experienced and rested
3) No suspicious passengers onboard, no major delay or any other inconvenience through ground ops reported
4) T/O without issues and begin climbing OK
5) When reached about intended FL but before leveling something very brief (fraction of seconds) and violent happened INSIDE, plane was broken in parts and falls down.
5.1) This event was so short that crew have no time to complete any action, so it's not stall or similar.
5.2) This even was followed (and possible is cause) of tail section detachment
5.3) Part of this event or it's direct result was intense fire (close to explosion) which destroyed wings section and killed last rows paxes

Now some speculations.

1) Place of event is somewhere middle to tail part of plane, between front cargo door and RPB.
2) I think also that it was below or at the level of cabin floor

...
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 18:37
  #932 (permalink)  
 
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Lot of use of the words "may have been", flights delayed not cancelled and the travel advice for Sharm not changed.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 18:44
  #933 (permalink)  
 
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"message is clear: We doesn't make trades with terrorists".

Message is as clear as mud.
It didn't stop someone blowing themselves up in DME or any part of the capital at any time, or downing TU154 in the past.

I'd bank a nice fat bet, it was a bomb, bearing in mind the "star wars" mentality, Putin's birthday firework night, and propaganda showering Russian state TV currently.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 18:45
  #934 (permalink)  
 
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Ireland has suspended flights to/from SSH also
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 18:48
  #935 (permalink)  
 
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Kulverstukas:
You've got the facts straight but, although I agree that the cause can certainly be INSIDE, I think we can't fully exclude structural causes followed by fire (causing passenger injuries etc.) completely yet. If you think we can I'd appreciate to hear your reasoning. We know many results of what happened but lack the sequence of events and therefore certainly do not know the start of it yet. The key piece of the puzzle is still missing...

Please keep up the good work!
I think we're getting close to having enough facts to draw harder conclusions.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 18:49
  #936 (permalink)  
 
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what we know

yes Kulvertukas, having been watching pictures and reading for hours and hours bulkhead failure could not cause such events we already know, and I suspect that RPB is still in place.
There is a very large piece of right side fuselage which suggests that left aft side is in much smaller pieces, caused by initial destructive event on the left. Probably close to fuel tank. At least somehow pulverized and flying fuel had to get into passengers cabin. Left HS could have been ripped off by fuselage pieces that dislodged the whole HS structure during which tailcone was separated.
Meanwhile leaking fuel mixed with air burned passengers. That phase couldn't last very long as aerodynamic forces ripped tail completely off....

Thats just a speculation based on limited evidence we have.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 18:50
  #937 (permalink)  
Sir George Cayley
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Outbound delay suggest our Guardian Forces are not happy with Egyptian Guardian Forces. So once the cabins have been cleaned, home to Blighty.

The outbound ban seems less clear unless it's to send a message to people in the region that Newton's Law applies;

"
To every action there is an equal and opposite reaction"
Doesn't it eh Vlad?

SGC
 
Old 4th Nov 2015, 18:50
  #938 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
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anyone know where the original is from, trying to get a higher res or bigger version of it
Google image search finds all matching images if you give it the url of an existing pic or upload one.

Right-click on this pic and choose properties and copy the filename (http://www.keri.ee/crash/tail_back.jpg) OR right-click and select 'save picture as' or 'save image' depending on your browser.

Go to Google Images, click the little black camera icon at the right end of the search bar and EITHER paste the url or click 'Upload image' and upload the copy you saved and it'll find all copies, in this case 59 sites, none large though sadly. Click here to see them - Google

Cool or what The URL it generates is huge but you can shorten it at tinyurl.com.
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 18:51
  #939 (permalink)  
 
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Thomas Cook Holidays seem sanguine enough, it being a travel company run by some of the most expert aviation security folks in the known world. A sleep-filled night tonight for its Gatwick and Manchester pax departing tomorrow, no doubt:

https://www.thomascook.com/travel-updates/
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Old 4th Nov 2015, 18:54
  #940 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
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Dutch authorities have also suspended flight to/from SSH until at least Sunday. It is reported that the they will wait to see the findings of British investigation into security at SSH.
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