Flaperon washes up on Reunion Island
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unworry : thanks sardak. re-oriented for comparison
Last edited by Biggles1957; 3rd Sep 2015 at 09:15. Reason: spelling corrected
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These photos seem to show different configurations in the rivet pattern here. I wonder if it is something like this that Boeing/NTSB is checking?
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Hi,
Vol MH370 : le débris d'avion retrouvé à La Réunion fin juillet appartient "avec certitude" au Boeing de la Malaysia Airlines
Vol MH370 : le débris d'avion retrouvé à La Réunion fin juillet appartient "avec certitude" au Boeing de la Malaysia Airlines
Le débris d'avion retrouvé à La Réunion fin juillet appartient "avec certitude" au vol MH370 de la Malaysia Airlines, disparu en mars 2014. Le parquet a fait cette annonce jeudi 3 septembre, après plusieurs semaines d'enquête.
The aircraft debris recovered in late July belongs Reunion "with certainty" the MH370 flight Malaysia Airlines, disappeared in March 2014. The prosecution made the announcement Thursday, September 3, after several weeks of investigation.
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flaperons
ok so we are more or less agreed that the reunion one came from 370. it is thus reasonable to assume that the action or event that led to it becoming detached might have/must have resulted in other parts of the aircraft floating up(?) and away. so where are they? maybe in another years time the other flaperon will fetch up on nantucket island. also the idea of the search ships finding a near intact hull are looking less likely now.
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also the idea of the search ships finding a near intact hull are looking less likely now.
Why do you say that? Doesn't finding this flaperon in this condition support the theory that the aircraft ditched in a controlled manner, rather than spearing-in? (Without wishing to make any judgement on whether the aircraft was still under the control of a person or not.)
Why do you say that? Doesn't finding this flaperon in this condition support the theory that the aircraft ditched in a controlled manner, rather than spearing-in? (Without wishing to make any judgement on whether the aircraft was still under the control of a person or not.)
That's excellent news. Thanks, jcjeant!
There is just one word in the prosecutor's statement that leaves me uneasy. Your French is better than mine, so perhaps you can set my mind at rest? The word is "pouvaient", underscored by me in the following paragraph:
"Les opérations d’expertises initiées le 5 août 2015, suite à la découverte du flaperon à La Réunion le 29 juillet, ont permis de relever au moyen d’un endoscope trois numéros à l’intérieur du flaperon, écrit le parquet. Il est apparu que ces trois numéros pouvaient correspondre à la référence de la fabrication de pièces confiée en sous-traitance par la société Boeing à la société Airbus Defense and Space, sise à Séville (Espagne)".
Does "ces trois numéros pouvaient correspondre à la référence de la fabrication" mean "the three numbers could correspond to the manufacturing reference"?
There is just one word in the prosecutor's statement that leaves me uneasy. Your French is better than mine, so perhaps you can set my mind at rest? The word is "pouvaient", underscored by me in the following paragraph:
"Les opérations d’expertises initiées le 5 août 2015, suite à la découverte du flaperon à La Réunion le 29 juillet, ont permis de relever au moyen d’un endoscope trois numéros à l’intérieur du flaperon, écrit le parquet. Il est apparu que ces trois numéros pouvaient correspondre à la référence de la fabrication de pièces confiée en sous-traitance par la société Boeing à la société Airbus Defense and Space, sise à Séville (Espagne)".
Does "ces trois numéros pouvaient correspondre à la référence de la fabrication" mean "the three numbers could correspond to the manufacturing reference"?
Quote from portmanteau:
"ok so we are more or less agreed that the reunion one came from 370. it is thus reasonable to assume that the action or event that led to it becoming detached might have/must have resulted in other parts of the aircraft floating up(?) and away. so where are they?"
There's been much discussion here earlier, but this was my view 11 days ago:
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post9092541
...and 10 days ago:
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post9093471
Hi catch21,
"Doesn't finding this flaperon in this condition support the theory that the aircraft ditched in a controlled manner, rather than spearing-in?"
Yes, although some posters argue it could have detached in a very high-speed descent, and presumably fluttered down relatively gently. My problem with the smooth ditching theory has always been that you simply don't find favourable conditions as far south as the calculated search areas.
"ok so we are more or less agreed that the reunion one came from 370. it is thus reasonable to assume that the action or event that led to it becoming detached might have/must have resulted in other parts of the aircraft floating up(?) and away. so where are they?"
There's been much discussion here earlier, but this was my view 11 days ago:
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post9092541
...and 10 days ago:
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post9093471
Hi catch21,
"Doesn't finding this flaperon in this condition support the theory that the aircraft ditched in a controlled manner, rather than spearing-in?"
Yes, although some posters argue it could have detached in a very high-speed descent, and presumably fluttered down relatively gently. My problem with the smooth ditching theory has always been that you simply don't find favourable conditions as far south as the calculated search areas.
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The 3 magic numbers
Here's another French article that confirms that the 3 numbers found inside the Flaperon were sent to Seville where a technicien linked them to a serial number- see my translation below of pertinent bits.
Here's the link:
Le débris retrouvé à La Réunion appartient bien au vol MH370
"Les expertises effectuées depuis au laboratoire de la direction générale de l'armement du ministère de la Défense (DGA TA), près de Toulouse, ont permis de relever «trois numéros à l'intérieur du flaperon» qui ont conduit à une société sous-traitante de Boeing, l'entreprise Airbus Defense and Space (ADS-SAU) à Séville (sud de l'Espagne), note le parquet dans son communiqué. Des données techniques et «l'audition d'un technicien de l'entreprise» permettent «d'associer formellement l'un des trois numéros relevés à l'intérieur du flaperon au numéro de série du flaperon du MH370», conclut le parquet."
The tests conducted since (finding the flaperon) at(...) the DGA TA, near Toulouse, uncovered "three numbers on the interior of the flaperon" that led (the investigation) to the Boeing sub-contractor, Airbus Defense and Space (ADS-SAU) in Seville (South Spain), said the public prosecutors office in their communiqué. Technical details and "the interview with a technicien from this company" make it possible "to formally link one of the three numbers found on the interior of the flaperon to the serial number of the MH370 flaperon" concluded the prosecutor.
Here's the link:
Le débris retrouvé à La Réunion appartient bien au vol MH370
"Les expertises effectuées depuis au laboratoire de la direction générale de l'armement du ministère de la Défense (DGA TA), près de Toulouse, ont permis de relever «trois numéros à l'intérieur du flaperon» qui ont conduit à une société sous-traitante de Boeing, l'entreprise Airbus Defense and Space (ADS-SAU) à Séville (sud de l'Espagne), note le parquet dans son communiqué. Des données techniques et «l'audition d'un technicien de l'entreprise» permettent «d'associer formellement l'un des trois numéros relevés à l'intérieur du flaperon au numéro de série du flaperon du MH370», conclut le parquet."
The tests conducted since (finding the flaperon) at(...) the DGA TA, near Toulouse, uncovered "three numbers on the interior of the flaperon" that led (the investigation) to the Boeing sub-contractor, Airbus Defense and Space (ADS-SAU) in Seville (South Spain), said the public prosecutors office in their communiqué. Technical details and "the interview with a technicien from this company" make it possible "to formally link one of the three numbers found on the interior of the flaperon to the serial number of the MH370 flaperon" concluded the prosecutor.
Last edited by gmorton; 3rd Sep 2015 at 17:40.
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On the subject of how the flaperon may have become detached, I wonder if someone on this forum may be able to answer the question below.
When both engines and the APU are not operating, the ram air turbine (RAT) can provide hydraulic power to the center hydraulic system primary flight control components only. There is no power to extend flaps/slats.
The flaperons are primary flight control components, but only the right flaperon is powered by the center hydraulic system.
The position of the flight control surfaces is controlled by the Actuator Control Electronics (ACE) in response to signals from the pilot controls which include the control wheels and the flap lever.
Question: With engines and APU inoperative and the RAT providing hydraulic power, and the flap lever moved to the Flaps30 position, will the right flaperon move down to the Flaps30 position?
When both engines and the APU are not operating, the ram air turbine (RAT) can provide hydraulic power to the center hydraulic system primary flight control components only. There is no power to extend flaps/slats.
The flaperons are primary flight control components, but only the right flaperon is powered by the center hydraulic system.
The position of the flight control surfaces is controlled by the Actuator Control Electronics (ACE) in response to signals from the pilot controls which include the control wheels and the flap lever.
Question: With engines and APU inoperative and the RAT providing hydraulic power, and the flap lever moved to the Flaps30 position, will the right flaperon move down to the Flaps30 position?
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@ Chris Scott
There is just one word in the prosecutor's statement that leaves me uneasy. Your French is better than mine, so perhaps you can set my mind at rest? The word is "pouvaient", underscored by me in the following paragraph:
"Les opérations d’expertises initiées le 5 août 2015, suite à la découverte du flaperon à La Réunion le 29 juillet, ont permis de relever au moyen d’un endoscope trois numéros à l’intérieur du flaperon, écrit le parquet. Il est apparu que ces trois numéros pouvaient correspondre à la référence de la fabrication de pièces confiée en sous-traitance par la société Boeing à la société Airbus Defense and Space, sise à Séville (Espagne)".
Does "ces trois numéros pouvaient correspondre à la référence de la fabrication" mean "the three numbers could correspond to the manufacturing reference"?
The 'could' that you are referring to is used in a sentence that precedes the confirmation that followed- i.e.: It became apparent that these 3 numbers could correspond with the fabrication reference of those parts handled by the sub-contractor (...)
the article continues:
The immediate communication of the details relative to the orders and fabrication of the airplane's parts, detailed in an interview with a technicien, allow for a formal link of one of the three numbers found on the interior of the flaperon(...)
Hope that helps you feel less uneasy
There is just one word in the prosecutor's statement that leaves me uneasy. Your French is better than mine, so perhaps you can set my mind at rest? The word is "pouvaient", underscored by me in the following paragraph:
"Les opérations d’expertises initiées le 5 août 2015, suite à la découverte du flaperon à La Réunion le 29 juillet, ont permis de relever au moyen d’un endoscope trois numéros à l’intérieur du flaperon, écrit le parquet. Il est apparu que ces trois numéros pouvaient correspondre à la référence de la fabrication de pièces confiée en sous-traitance par la société Boeing à la société Airbus Defense and Space, sise à Séville (Espagne)".
Does "ces trois numéros pouvaient correspondre à la référence de la fabrication" mean "the three numbers could correspond to the manufacturing reference"?
The 'could' that you are referring to is used in a sentence that precedes the confirmation that followed- i.e.: It became apparent that these 3 numbers could correspond with the fabrication reference of those parts handled by the sub-contractor (...)
the article continues:
The immediate communication of the details relative to the orders and fabrication of the airplane's parts, detailed in an interview with a technicien, allow for a formal link of one of the three numbers found on the interior of the flaperon(...)
Hope that helps you feel less uneasy
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My problem with the smooth ditching theory has always been that you simply don't find favourable conditions as far south as the calculated search areas.
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The fact that the numbers were found in the interior of the flaperon suggests that the flaperon has been disassembled once the exterior analysis was completed. I hope this doesn't lead to conspiracists claiming that this was done deliberately to conceal evidence. Just for once it would be nice if everyone could at least agree that the plane came down in the Southern Indian Ocean and that some definitive proof does now exist to support that hypothesis. All the more reason to continue the search for what remains of the hull.
Hi gmorton,
Yes, thanks, I'm satisfied with your clear explanation. The first report we saw in francetvinfo separated the prosecutor's statement with a headline, but it now seems that the two paragraphs were quoted in the correct order. So, as you say, the paragraph containing the qualification "could" is superseded by the one confirming certitude.
Thank goodness they've finally settled that uncertainty, so we can move on.
Quotes from GOULI:
"The fact that the numbers were found in the interior of the flaperon suggests that the flaperon has been disassembled once the exterior analysis was completed."
Probably not, because the prosecutor states that the internal examination was by endoscope.
"I hope this doesn't lead to conspiracists claiming that this was done deliberately to conceal evidence. Just for once it would be nice if everyone could at least agree that the plane came down in the Southern Indian Ocean and that some definitive proof does now exist to support that hypothesis. All the more reason to continue the search for what remains of the hull."
Conspiracy theorists will see any action by anyone as supporting their arguments. Fortunately, most of us asking awkward questions on this thread are what the Christian religion refers to as "doubting Thomases". Science without healthy scepticism is not scientific. (Moderators please note.
)
Yes, thanks, I'm satisfied with your clear explanation. The first report we saw in francetvinfo separated the prosecutor's statement with a headline, but it now seems that the two paragraphs were quoted in the correct order. So, as you say, the paragraph containing the qualification "could" is superseded by the one confirming certitude.
Thank goodness they've finally settled that uncertainty, so we can move on.
Quotes from GOULI:
"The fact that the numbers were found in the interior of the flaperon suggests that the flaperon has been disassembled once the exterior analysis was completed."
Probably not, because the prosecutor states that the internal examination was by endoscope.
"I hope this doesn't lead to conspiracists claiming that this was done deliberately to conceal evidence. Just for once it would be nice if everyone could at least agree that the plane came down in the Southern Indian Ocean and that some definitive proof does now exist to support that hypothesis. All the more reason to continue the search for what remains of the hull."
Conspiracy theorists will see any action by anyone as supporting their arguments. Fortunately, most of us asking awkward questions on this thread are what the Christian religion refers to as "doubting Thomases". Science without healthy scepticism is not scientific. (Moderators please note.
)
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Some values can be extracted from satellite imagery: I decoded the 3 files for march 2014:
multi_1.glo_30m.hs.201403.grb2
multi_1.glo_30m.dp.201403.grb2
multi_1.glo_30m.tp.201403.grb2
available on ftp://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/history/waves/
via wgrib2 and the command line
wgrib2 -d 56 -ijlat 185 86 multi_1.glo_30m.hs.201403.grb2
to get the measures for example for the 92°E & 35°S & 8th march at 00:00 GMT (56th sample) and got 4.75 m of significant wave height, 12.9 s for the period and 213° for the direction.
As noted by Kelly Martin on Quora:
"These are NOT measured wave heights. They are from the hindcast generated by a computer model based on satellite and bouy data. Since the nearest bouys and coastal stations are a significant distance away, the values, particularly for wave height, are only our best estimate. The model, WAVEWATCH III, is usually pretty good, but could use more data for constraining processes in this part of the ocean. So it isn't perfect, but it is the best we have."
With this method, you can look how the significant wave height evolves along the 7th ping ring as latitude decreases (say from 28°S to 38°S)... and it's not the Hudson !
Sea state for ditching
Quote from PersonFromPortlock:
"Actual surface conditions for the Indian Ocean must be known for all the times and places where MH370 could have come down."
Interesting point. Most people would probably agree, but I suspect that frequent reports of actual sea-states from specific parts of all the vast tracts of ocean on the Earth simply do not happen, and that would probably include parts of the southern Indian Ocean remote from Australia. No doubt, however, expert interpretation of satellite images will have given a fairly good indication of the likely conditions.
[EDIT]
Thanks, Hyperveloce, your post was quicker and more informative!
"Actual surface conditions for the Indian Ocean must be known for all the times and places where MH370 could have come down."
Interesting point. Most people would probably agree, but I suspect that frequent reports of actual sea-states from specific parts of all the vast tracts of ocean on the Earth simply do not happen, and that would probably include parts of the southern Indian Ocean remote from Australia. No doubt, however, expert interpretation of satellite images will have given a fairly good indication of the likely conditions.
[EDIT]
Thanks, Hyperveloce, your post was quicker and more informative!
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Question: With engines and APU inoperative and the RAT providing hydraulic power, and the flap lever moved to the Flaps30 position, will the right flaperon move down to the Flaps30 position?
RAT(with 7.5 KVA only) doesn't provide enough power to extend flaps or flaperon's flaps function(secondary flight control).
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Wave height measurements and drift hindcasting
As far as I know, the remote sensing for determining wave heights works indirectly. SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) and scatterometry (a form of SAR) can estimate surface winds. From a history of surface winds, you can get some idea of wave height, but I don't know how accurate. Also, SAR and scatterometers operate from low earth orbit, so a given patch of ocean is only visited from time to time.
It is also unlikely that the drift of the flaperon can be hindcasted with any degree of accuracy. The ocean currents are complex and poorly sampled, and thus chaos is likely to dominate hindcasting over any significant amount of time - as it does other complex hydrodynamic systems. The flaperon would also have been subject to influence from wind, and in a complex manner - it would vary over time with the relative wind angle, which is impossible to predict.
This sort of inherent inaccuracy is most obvious in weather models, which try a similar process - except they are forecasting. Weather models are pretty much useless more than 10 days out, and often fail spectacularly over a much shorter period.
It is also unlikely that the drift of the flaperon can be hindcasted with any degree of accuracy. The ocean currents are complex and poorly sampled, and thus chaos is likely to dominate hindcasting over any significant amount of time - as it does other complex hydrodynamic systems. The flaperon would also have been subject to influence from wind, and in a complex manner - it would vary over time with the relative wind angle, which is impossible to predict.
This sort of inherent inaccuracy is most obvious in weather models, which try a similar process - except they are forecasting. Weather models are pretty much useless more than 10 days out, and often fail spectacularly over a much shorter period.