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Air Algerie loses contact with its plane leaving Ouagadougou

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Air Algerie loses contact with its plane leaving Ouagadougou

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Old 27th Jul 2014, 08:52
  #121 (permalink)  
 
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I would not take IBT reports on face value until confirmed by some more reliable source.
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Old 27th Jul 2014, 12:00
  #122 (permalink)  
 
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IBT source is quoted, a local (algerian) paper.
Echorouk Online - Air Algérie AH5017 crash: "Tawhid and Djihad" battalion stationed near the crash site
It itself relies on "sources", with no name (understandable) nor qualification.

I think I too will wait a bit more, thanks
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Old 27th Jul 2014, 18:25
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Remi Jouty, Chairman of the BEA just interviewed on F2

Mr Jouty was invited by the 20H TV news France2 just a few minutes ago.
The recorders are presently in the hands of the Malian authorities and should be transferred tomorrow morning to Le Bourget, the head office of the BEA, for examination and reading.
Mr Jouty said that it was an extremely high velocity impact but it could not be said now what was the attitude of the aircraft, nose down or not etc...
About the recorders external aspects:
-The FDR seems to be in a relative good state and might be exploitable.
-The CVR is very damaged.
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Old 27th Jul 2014, 21:15
  #124 (permalink)  
 
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Still sceptical

I apologize if I had underestimated the radar capabilities of the DFFD airport tower before. If the video from FranceInfo is not fake, it appears there is SSR coverage, but still I doubt it would be utilized operationally. The squawk 2000 hints to this assumption, too. However there is no mentioning of the radar installation in the AiP.

The loss of contact was reported to have happened after 48 mins flying time. This would mean that the aircraft was about 300 NM from the radar head or even further. This is below the radar horizon of any radar, so I am still sceptical what I see.

The video is very much accelerated. The SSR turning speed may be 10 or 12 secs, assuming this is not a brand new state of the art SSR only installation ( it would not need the big dome then). The video shows two or more updates per second.

The video consists of three sequences:

(video time - flight level - ground speed are the data below)

1) climb out sequences
11:19 FL116 310kts
level and GS gradually increase until
11:24 FL147 350 kts
I would say that this corresponds to a normal flight profile.
At an assumed climb rate of 2000 ft/min within 6 seconds of video the aircraft climbed 3100ft, so an assumed acceleration of 10x or 15x could well fit.

2) level flight sequence
11:25 FL310 410 or 400kts
until
11:28
This corresponds with my knowledge of an initial FL of a heavily laden MD80
If this is not fake then the ghost target could be a result of the aircraft flying well beyond the radar's nominal range

3) final sequence
11:28 FL305 330kts
This constitutes a significant drop in ground speed, maybe to the vicinity of Vs. But remember that ground speed on radars is derived by calculation of the leg distance between the past radar positions, so it may be inaccurate
11:29 FL298 310kts
11:29 FL295 300kts
11:30 FL295 280kts
11:30 FL295 270kts
11:31 FL252 270kts, aircraft starts veering left
11:31 FL252 150kts, tight left turn
11:32 FL252 140kts
11:34 the target disappears, may have fallen below the radar horizon or transponder not responding
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Old 28th Jul 2014, 00:06
  #125 (permalink)  
 
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threemiles


thanks for the information

slowing for turbulence is about 285 knots (mach .76 or so)

this could account for some reduction in ground speed.

the altitude changes are of great interest too

further reduction in ground speed may indicate highly reduced airspeed approaching losss of control

the turn might be away from the storm.

however I don't see the original radar plots or anything else.

I can imagine loss of one or both engines, reduced speed, unable to maintain altitude etc. loss of engine due to hail

we shall see. but thanks
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Old 28th Jul 2014, 00:24
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Ground speed <> Indicated Air Speed

Youre slowing to 280kts IAS in turbulence, instead of riding the cowboys 330 kts. But this is in level flight and at FL310.

A GS of 280kts at FL310 with little to no wind should be dangerous close to Vs if not lower than it.

The turn only occurs after the airplane has lost altitude and speed and is a start of a stall spiral for me. The airplane was a little off track to the left, this is probably the track correction for weather that the media bet on.

The video is further up here in a link pointing to FranceInfo TV. There is a radar replay, likely on a PC or so, that was filmed by the TV team. It is black on white, which means it is synthesized.
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post8580965

My bet is iceing of pitot tubes, overspeed and underspeed alarms, confusion, intentional flight idle, compressor stall, aerodynamic stall, T-elevator stall, deep stall. Handling or capability of weather radar may have played its role. The world had seen it before, except that there is no evidence that the crew tried to climb above FL310 as did AFI and those here http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pulko...ise_Flight_612

Last edited by threemiles; 28th Jul 2014 at 00:37.
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Old 28th Jul 2014, 00:38
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threemile


the turbulence penetration speed is 285 kias

turbulent air penetration 285 knots or .76

it is not that close to a stall and certainly ground speed is not airspeed indicated


I would slow to turbulence penetration speed, why wouldn't you?
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Old 28th Jul 2014, 01:03
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The airplane was a little off track to the left, this is probably the track correction for weather that the media bet on.
If the normal track runs through TATAB then they'd have flown right through the peak updraft region of the storm (tops at FL530). Based on the quick sight in the video their track would've taken them downwind of the convective core (still with tops around FL440). In that area they'd have hit some heavy down-drafts as well as probably hail and maybe crystal icing. Not where I'd like to be flying.
That said, within a few minutes of leaving Ouagadougou their radar probably would've been filled with red anyway - so not much help there.

- edit -
Also, the final position shown on the radar in the video matches very closely with the presumed crash site on avherald's satellite pic.
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Old 28th Jul 2014, 01:54
  #129 (permalink)  
 
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Distance from Ouga to crash site ist 167 NM.
So radar horizon is likely not an issue.
But something is wrong with the 50 mins flYing time. You get farther away from your departure airport than just 167 NM. Maybe offblock and lift off time have been swapped.
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Old 28th Jul 2014, 04:52
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Not a word from the French President nor Defense French Defense Minister. Thank you AZR for that information :
Among the victims of the Spanish aircraft that was leased by Air Algerie, 33 soldiers of the French army who were in Mali and Africa, and among these there are three senior officers in the French Intelligence Service, Echorouk sources said.

Lebanese Hezbollah leader who operates as a businessman who traveled from and to Senegal and Burkina Faso, was also among the victims of the crash. Lebanese Embassy in Algiers requested information on the situation of Lebanese nationals and it was found that the man in question is among the victims
Shocking Silence.
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Old 28th Jul 2014, 08:18
  #131 (permalink)  
 
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You're welcome. As I said before, I'm quite not sure it's an information (a legit one, I mean). Could be rumor too. Wait & see.
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Old 28th Jul 2014, 09:47
  #132 (permalink)  
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33 soldiers of the French army who were in Mali and Africa, and among these there are three senior officers in the French Intelligence Service, Echorouk sources said.
That does not fit the current official communication plan, and I doulbt you can hide this fact for very long, so I am sceptical about this rumour.
But if some truth is on it , I guess ' Le canard enchaine " ( French Weelkly newspaper generally very well informed ) of tomorrow evening will surely know and mention it .
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Old 28th Jul 2014, 10:08
  #133 (permalink)  
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it appears there is SSR coverage, but still I doubt it would be utilized operationally. The squawk 2000 hints to this assumption, too. However there is no mentioning of the radar installation in the AiP.
My info os that Thales has a contract with AECNA ( the multinational ATS service provider over Burkina Fasso) to install a MSSR in Ouaga , installed but not operational yet. What we saw is maybe just a replay from an engineering control screen , not the operational one.
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Old 28th Jul 2014, 10:40
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Latest news from French state + question re independence of any French investigation

F24 (the inernational French tv news service available 24/7 online I believe; and in English) reported recently that there will be an official news breiefing quite shortly.

As I highlighted above, I would not really welcome a Spanish investigation into this accident.

I am however equally (or perhaps even more) suspicious of a French investigation.

One earlier poster highlighted that air-accidents are officially classed as "state secrets" which is not in my experience the right mood-music for clarification. (Obviously protecting a crash sight to allow investigators to work unhindered and also to prevent ghouls or momentarily(?) insensitive reporters from offending relatives of the deceased is a wonderful idea.) But "state secret" seems way over the top.

In addition, there are comments above about the lack of info currently available from official French sources, as well as several statements to the effect that many French service personnel were on board.

It is easy for this question to just be one of "I don't like/ trust/ rate France," but surely the question of international public confidence in the contents and impartiality of the final report is of some importance.

Time for an EU air accident body ?
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Old 28th Jul 2014, 11:11
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Time for an EU air accident body ?
Please God NO!!
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Old 28th Jul 2014, 11:22
  #136 (permalink)  
 
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I listened carefully to what was said about the flightpath of AH5017 and as earlier confirmed, they actually say it was flying at 8000 metres. 20 minutes after takeoff they requested a change in directions due to weather. Then they dropped 4000 metres in altitude and disappeared from radar. My question is how high you are flying when an altitude loss of 4000 metres makes you drop radar contact. This is not the Himalayas., but described as savannah.

During this piece of information the pictures of radar screens and crash sites were shown. (Information for you who didn't see this news clip.)

What was also interesting was the "air safety expert" who commented on what could have happened. He thought that the pilots may have turned into an even worse situation and experienced spatial disorientation. This based on the fact that the aircraft took off in the middle of the night ("plein nuit" in the clip) and African nights can be black as tar.
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Old 28th Jul 2014, 11:44
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According to TV channel LCI (La Chaîne Info, belonging to TF1), there were four members of the French Special Forces and one member of French Military Intelligence aboard.
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Old 28th Jul 2014, 13:45
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Is Swiftair "unsafe"?

SEPLA, Spain´s airline pilots association warned about Swiftair poor standards of training. Do they know something we don´t?
Air Algerie AH 5017: Spain's Pilots' Union Warned of 'Unsafe' Charter Company Swiftair
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Old 28th Jul 2014, 16:01
  #139 (permalink)  
 
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Hi,

Read it for the first time in a official statement :
"Toutes les hypothèses seront examinées dans le cadre de l'enquête. Ce que nous savons d'une façon certaine, c'est que la météo était mauvaise cette nuit-là, que l'équipage de l'avion avait demandé à se dérouter, puis à rebrousser chemin, avant que le contact ne soit perdu", a déclaré le ministre au cours d'une conférence de presse.
"All hypotheses will be examined in the context of the investigation. What we know in some way, is that the weather was bad that night, that the flight crew had requested to divert and then turn back before contact is lost, "said the minister at a press conference.
"then turn back"
Crash Air Algérie : l'équipage avait demandé à rebrousser chemin (Fabius) | La Provence
In all former statements it was only "request to divert"
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Old 28th Jul 2014, 16:38
  #140 (permalink)  
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The "request to turn back " was confirmed this evening by Laurent Fabius, French Foreign Minister in a press conference.
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