Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
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About Doppler value
@Hyperveloce, AndRand and OleOle
As probably many others, I tried to make some maths, just to see if I have understood anything about those Inmarsat conclusions. It is relativly simple maths because we have the sat data trajectory using Internet data (LIVE REAL TIME SATELLITE TRACKING AND PREDICTIONS: INMARSAT 3-F1) and softwares to extract 3D position of the sat. Also, finding 3D a/c positions along suppose path is easy. And thus, finding approximated distance between them for example every minute is not complicated. So, a very good approximation of the relative speed by "derivating" for each minute.
And what I found is, as you say, very far from what is in THE chart, about a 5 times factor. And also neg values, that are very logical when the a/c was flying west. So, what?
Perhaps the Inmarsat data show only a delta (absolute value)?
Threemiles post last night these data: http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post8409275 probably from this page: Acceptability of transmitters for licensing.
If the "335Hz" max value was applied, could we have to substract a constant, say 200Hz?
As probably many others, I tried to make some maths, just to see if I have understood anything about those Inmarsat conclusions. It is relativly simple maths because we have the sat data trajectory using Internet data (LIVE REAL TIME SATELLITE TRACKING AND PREDICTIONS: INMARSAT 3-F1) and softwares to extract 3D position of the sat. Also, finding 3D a/c positions along suppose path is easy. And thus, finding approximated distance between them for example every minute is not complicated. So, a very good approximation of the relative speed by "derivating" for each minute.
And what I found is, as you say, very far from what is in THE chart, about a 5 times factor. And also neg values, that are very logical when the a/c was flying west. So, what?
Perhaps the Inmarsat data show only a delta (absolute value)?
Threemiles post last night these data: http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post8409275 probably from this page: Acceptability of transmitters for licensing.
If the "335Hz" max value was applied, could we have to substract a constant, say 200Hz?
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AAIB Doppler data
From the AAIB data there were 13 transmissions that were analyzed (did not include last "partial").
Four of those thirteen were prior to 1710 (UTC) and presumably were expected transmissions.
From that time forward the (approximate) intervals between transmissions are:
78 minutes,
2 minutes,
2 minutes,
70 minutes
60 minutes
60 minutes
60 minutes
31 minutes
followed by the "partial" 8 minutes later.
Can anything be deduced from the inconsistant time intervals, particularily contacts 6,7,8 (at approximately 18:25, 18:28 and 18:30 (UTC)?
Four of those thirteen were prior to 1710 (UTC) and presumably were expected transmissions.
From that time forward the (approximate) intervals between transmissions are:
78 minutes,
2 minutes,
2 minutes,
70 minutes
60 minutes
60 minutes
60 minutes
31 minutes
followed by the "partial" 8 minutes later.
Can anything be deduced from the inconsistant time intervals, particularily contacts 6,7,8 (at approximately 18:25, 18:28 and 18:30 (UTC)?
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It has not been made public what was said to the captain from a disposable cell phone before his flight took off. The phone was purchased by a woman using a fake ID. maybe she was breaking things off or the affair had been discovered by her husband. we just don't know.
If his girlfriend were married, they both could face punishment in malaysia;
caning for her.
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-...n-for-adultery
possible 2 year imprisonment and fine for him.
Section 498 Penal Code: “Whoever takes or entices away any woman who is and whom he knows, or has reason to believe, to be the wife of any other man, from that man, or from any person having the care of her on behalf of that man, with intent that she may have illicit intercourse with any person, or conceals, or detains with that intent any such woman, shall be punished with imprisonment for a term which may extend to two years, or with fine, or with both.”
Zaharie had just come from his friend's trial where he saw that the democratic leader had his appeal overturned.
he had been distant with his wife and children for weeks leading up to the flight.
a few days ago, i had heard the theory that highcirrus posted above . it could have happened.
it's possible Zaharie snapped.
If his girlfriend were married, they both could face punishment in malaysia;
caning for her.
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-...n-for-adultery
possible 2 year imprisonment and fine for him.
Section 498 Penal Code: “Whoever takes or entices away any woman who is and whom he knows, or has reason to believe, to be the wife of any other man, from that man, or from any person having the care of her on behalf of that man, with intent that she may have illicit intercourse with any person, or conceals, or detains with that intent any such woman, shall be punished with imprisonment for a term which may extend to two years, or with fine, or with both.”
Zaharie had just come from his friend's trial where he saw that the democratic leader had his appeal overturned.
he had been distant with his wife and children for weeks leading up to the flight.
a few days ago, i had heard the theory that highcirrus posted above . it could have happened.
it's possible Zaharie snapped.
Last edited by orbit12; 30th Mar 2014 at 16:09.
Keeping Danny in Sandwiches
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Doppler Data.
1 If power is off an aircraft on the ground does the aircraft ACARS ping when power is turned on or does it wait until INMARSAT interrogates it?
2 I'm not familiar with the T7, but flew the 763. Does the apu autostart if there is a complete loss of electrical power on the busses.
3What's the location of the fuel feed for the APU in relation to the Engine feed. Is it likely that that APU would find fuel other than in the fuel line if the engine feeding from that tank shuts down due to fuel starvation.
4 If there is a total AC electrical failure the aircraft will have battery power. What bus is the ACARS receiver powered from? In other words when a 777 is on 30mins (?) of battery power is the ACARS still functioning in its basic mode?
1 If power is off an aircraft on the ground does the aircraft ACARS ping when power is turned on or does it wait until INMARSAT interrogates it?
2 I'm not familiar with the T7, but flew the 763. Does the apu autostart if there is a complete loss of electrical power on the busses.
3What's the location of the fuel feed for the APU in relation to the Engine feed. Is it likely that that APU would find fuel other than in the fuel line if the engine feeding from that tank shuts down due to fuel starvation.
4 If there is a total AC electrical failure the aircraft will have battery power. What bus is the ACARS receiver powered from? In other words when a 777 is on 30mins (?) of battery power is the ACARS still functioning in its basic mode?
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Fact: There was no mysterious phone call from an illegal phone. Malaysian investigators are on record denying this report.
Fact: Zaharie Ahmad Shah was as political as the average American who believes strongly in a candidate and who volunteers as a canvasser or as a get out the vote activist. In other words, his politics and his involvement were as mainstream plain vanilla as it gets in a country where opposition is fairly to very difficult to undertake.
Fact: The opposition leader who was once again convicted that day was also released on bail. There was nothing unexpected in the verdict. It was the second or third time the ruling party had effectively taken out this leader via the court system. Zaharie Ahmad Shah may well have been angry. But surprised? No. Pushed to a breaking point? Ridiculous.
Fact: Shah's children are grown up. His wife did not leave him " taking the children."
Fact: The FBI has said no files were deleted on Shah's simulator. Some Some files were overwritten by the system. Nothing even slightly out of order was found in his computer files either.
Not a fact: Shah's marital status. Only rumors are out there. His wife typically left when he was away flying.
Fact: She does not believe he committed suicide. Neither do his "children" believe this.
I come to this board to read factual reasoning of what might or might not happened. If you're discussing pilot culpability please at least keep to the facts.
Fact: Zaharie Ahmad Shah was as political as the average American who believes strongly in a candidate and who volunteers as a canvasser or as a get out the vote activist. In other words, his politics and his involvement were as mainstream plain vanilla as it gets in a country where opposition is fairly to very difficult to undertake.
Fact: The opposition leader who was once again convicted that day was also released on bail. There was nothing unexpected in the verdict. It was the second or third time the ruling party had effectively taken out this leader via the court system. Zaharie Ahmad Shah may well have been angry. But surprised? No. Pushed to a breaking point? Ridiculous.
Fact: Shah's children are grown up. His wife did not leave him " taking the children."
Fact: The FBI has said no files were deleted on Shah's simulator. Some Some files were overwritten by the system. Nothing even slightly out of order was found in his computer files either.
Not a fact: Shah's marital status. Only rumors are out there. His wife typically left when he was away flying.
Fact: She does not believe he committed suicide. Neither do his "children" believe this.
I come to this board to read factual reasoning of what might or might not happened. If you're discussing pilot culpability please at least keep to the facts.
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Pontius wrote:
What we do not know is the norm for handshakes.
What we do not know is the norm for handshakes.
If the ground station has not heard from an aircraft for a hour it (the ground station) will transmit a "logon /log off" message sometimes referred to as a ping, using the aircraft's unique identifier"
I was given to believe that ACARS transmissions were routed (automatically) to VHF, and failing that Satcom was used. If the AAIB data is correct, then it implies that Satcom transmits "something" when ACARS is transmitting via VHF. (otherwise there would be no doppler analysis of the first four transmissions).
analytics and modeling
This may have been covered at some point however it seems likely that satellite photos, experience, and powerful analytics should work well together and I wonder if anyone has knowledge?
There should be thousands of satellite photos of sea junk in the 40s with good documentation of local weather. For other purposes I would imagine that organizations interested in oceans would have developed an algorithm that looks for relationships in this data and should develop relatively distinctive snapshots from these combinations.
Lots of junk with 10 foot waves and clouds with sun 20 degrees above horizon looks very different from no junk with sun overhead etc. Feed in enough data and it would cover practically any combination.
Then you run images of a week old aviation crash, sunk ship or other specific event and it seems likely that the profile would be significantly different. The algorithm would effectively say "haven't seen anything like that before under random circumstances. ''
The reason I ask is that we do similar process with business and finance data and law seem to be doing similar things with gang groupings.
It seems logical that shipping opperations, environmental, science types would have ocean models as I have described.
If so is it possible that no one has thought of this approach or am I missing something obvious?
There should be thousands of satellite photos of sea junk in the 40s with good documentation of local weather. For other purposes I would imagine that organizations interested in oceans would have developed an algorithm that looks for relationships in this data and should develop relatively distinctive snapshots from these combinations.
Lots of junk with 10 foot waves and clouds with sun 20 degrees above horizon looks very different from no junk with sun overhead etc. Feed in enough data and it would cover practically any combination.
Then you run images of a week old aviation crash, sunk ship or other specific event and it seems likely that the profile would be significantly different. The algorithm would effectively say "haven't seen anything like that before under random circumstances. ''
The reason I ask is that we do similar process with business and finance data and law seem to be doing similar things with gang groupings.
It seems logical that shipping opperations, environmental, science types would have ocean models as I have described.
If so is it possible that no one has thought of this approach or am I missing something obvious?
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Now these handshakes were obviously initiated by the aircraft; what conditions determine when it will seek to connect with the satellite?
As for the two minute intervals that looks superficially like data corruption. 30, 60, 90, 120 seconds are standard intervals for wait times if the connection is not satisfactory. E.,g. Try the connection, if it doesn't work, wait 120 seconds, try again.
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Search for MH370 could take years, says US naval officer
The search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 could take years, a United States naval officer suggested today, as search and rescue officials raced to locate the plane's black box recorder days before its batteries are set to die.
Australia Establishes Search and Investigation Protocol
Australia, which is coordinating the search in the southern Indian Ocean, said it had established a new body to oversee the investigation and issued countries involved in the search a set of protocols to abide by should any wreckage be found.
This week, Australia issued a set of rules and guidelines to all parties involved in the search, giving Malaysia authority over the investigation of any debris to be conducted on Australian soil, a spokesman at the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade told Reuters.
"Australia intends to bring the wreckage ashore at Perth and hold it securely for the purposes of the Malaysian investigation," the spokesman said.
https://my.news.yahoo.com/search-mh3...074140872.html
This is beginning to look like a long long operation. There is obviously no detectable debris on the ocean surface and the only way to go ahead is the long haul ocean floor sonar scanning which could take years.
Australia Establishes Search and Investigation Protocol
Australia, which is coordinating the search in the southern Indian Ocean, said it had established a new body to oversee the investigation and issued countries involved in the search a set of protocols to abide by should any wreckage be found.
This week, Australia issued a set of rules and guidelines to all parties involved in the search, giving Malaysia authority over the investigation of any debris to be conducted on Australian soil, a spokesman at the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade told Reuters.
"Australia intends to bring the wreckage ashore at Perth and hold it securely for the purposes of the Malaysian investigation," the spokesman said.
https://my.news.yahoo.com/search-mh3...074140872.html
This is beginning to look like a long long operation. There is obviously no detectable debris on the ocean surface and the only way to go ahead is the long haul ocean floor sonar scanning which could take years.
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Intention and unintention
There is an unhelpful continuing confusion between intention as a cause for the disappearance, and pilot intention. MH370’s disappearance was either unintentional or intentional. Unintentional causes are being covered. General intention does not impute pilot cooperation, though it could. Hypothesizing pilot involvement does not cast aspersions on all other pilots any more than the good reputation of all pilots ensures the performance or behavior of any single pilot at all times. Nor does it necessarily suggest the pilot acted in an antisocial or violent way, which is no small point. Posters irately suggesting that moderators remove any posts that suggest pilot involvement are not distinguishing between some general intention and pilot involvement, and are wrong to try to impede ideas which may prove true and useful in as yet unrecognized ways. While life history and societal norms are strong circumstantial evidence, there are probably a thousand possibilities why a good person might take a completely unanticipated action for the greater good as he saw it in the moment, or a greater good as described to him by others to whom he ascribes authority or high regard who may have hidden agendas, or for many other reasons. In fact, acting "under authority" or within a chain of command but against personal opinion or judgment is usually recognized as exemplary behavior. Both pilots demonstrate a solid and predictable history but no one yet knows what led to MH370’s disappearance. There is no shred of evidence excluding general intention as the cause, or excluding intentional misdirection. If one wanted to lose an airliner there would be few better places to travel near or aim for than the Ninety East Ridge and the Diamantina Trench. There is nothing wrong with asking why someone would want an airliner to disappear. Asking this question directly confronts why this might have happened.
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@dataq1 post #8850
If the ground station initiates the ping then the inconsistent time intervals indicate some issue with the ground station, not with the plane. The question why would SW that is supposed to ping every sixty minutes not do so. The most obvious possibility is that the pings are low priority. So if the ground station is busy handling other traffic then it is waiting until it has free CPU cycles to send the ping.
78 minutes...late because CPU is overloaded
2 minutes...got corrupted data, retry
2 minutes..got corrupted data, retry
70 minutes...late because cpu is overloaded
60 minutes....on schedule
60 minutes....on schedule
60 minutes....on schedule
31 minutes...????
(note that the above is pure speculation on my part)
So it's the last one that puzzles me. I can't think of a good reason off the top of my head why the ground station would be 29 minutes early.
Can anything be deduced from the inconsistant time intervals
78 minutes...late because CPU is overloaded
2 minutes...got corrupted data, retry
2 minutes..got corrupted data, retry
70 minutes...late because cpu is overloaded
60 minutes....on schedule
60 minutes....on schedule
60 minutes....on schedule
31 minutes...????
(note that the above is pure speculation on my part)
So it's the last one that puzzles me. I can't think of a good reason off the top of my head why the ground station would be 29 minutes early.
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On Mar 30th 2014 AMSA reported that an emergency signal received from a fishing vessel about 3300km/1780nm southwest of Perth needed to be addressed, two aircraft thought to participate in the search for MH-370 were tasked to respond to the fishing vessel - as only debris was located at the point of the signal, the search for the vessel is going to continue on Mar 31st. The remaining 9 aircraft and now 8 ships continued to scan the northern search area west of Perth, aircraft reported new sightings. The objects retrieved from the ocean yesterday have been described as "fishing equipment and other floatsam" unrelated to MH-370.
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It's not that he said "goodnight" that's odd, it's that he didn't readback the frequency.
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ACARS and Pings
IMO, this is how the protocol works.
ACARS <-> A/C Terminal <-> INMARSAT Satellite <-> INMARSAT Ground Station
Typically messages go between ACARS and the INMARSAT ground station (GS) and, even though the messages pass through the the aircraft terminal and the satellite, these are invisible, just like when you talk on cell phone, the terminal in you phone, the tower and network are (hopefully) invisible to you.
When ACARS is off or when the aircraft doesn't have anything to send for a long period, the aircraft terminal and the ground station stay in contact so that the INMARSAT system can keep track of who is in its communication environment and who is not. This is done by the the GS querying the terminal once an hour. The GS sends a message to the INMARSAT satellite, which generates a "ping" to the terminal. If the terminal can hear the satellite, it responds with a simple message saying yes, I am still here. If there is no reply, then the INMARSAT GS probably eventually logs the terminal off and stops polling - we have not been made privilege to this - just speculating on this, having developed other satellite protocols. This is also why you shouldn't carry your cell phone in your pocket, right next to your jewels.
Now, the terminal also may have a timer which says if I don't hear from the satellite in a certain time (longer than the 1 hour above) then it may send a message to the satellite saying hey, I am still here. If it doesn't get a reply, then it possibly tries to connect to other INMARSAT satellites. We haven't been made privi to this part of the protocol either.
If the terminal is powered up or reset, it would probably try to initiate a connection to an INMARSAT satellite / GS. IMO, this is what I think the final ping is. If it was, did the GS / satellite try to handshake back with the terminal - if it did, then maybe it is possible to determine the final location and doppler.
ACARS <-> A/C Terminal <-> INMARSAT Satellite <-> INMARSAT Ground Station
Typically messages go between ACARS and the INMARSAT ground station (GS) and, even though the messages pass through the the aircraft terminal and the satellite, these are invisible, just like when you talk on cell phone, the terminal in you phone, the tower and network are (hopefully) invisible to you.
When ACARS is off or when the aircraft doesn't have anything to send for a long period, the aircraft terminal and the ground station stay in contact so that the INMARSAT system can keep track of who is in its communication environment and who is not. This is done by the the GS querying the terminal once an hour. The GS sends a message to the INMARSAT satellite, which generates a "ping" to the terminal. If the terminal can hear the satellite, it responds with a simple message saying yes, I am still here. If there is no reply, then the INMARSAT GS probably eventually logs the terminal off and stops polling - we have not been made privilege to this - just speculating on this, having developed other satellite protocols. This is also why you shouldn't carry your cell phone in your pocket, right next to your jewels.
Now, the terminal also may have a timer which says if I don't hear from the satellite in a certain time (longer than the 1 hour above) then it may send a message to the satellite saying hey, I am still here. If it doesn't get a reply, then it possibly tries to connect to other INMARSAT satellites. We haven't been made privi to this part of the protocol either.
If the terminal is powered up or reset, it would probably try to initiate a connection to an INMARSAT satellite / GS. IMO, this is what I think the final ping is. If it was, did the GS / satellite try to handshake back with the terminal - if it did, then maybe it is possible to determine the final location and doppler.
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Transmissions
Jilted
MAS is an airline not the NTSB/AAIB/BEA. It is to the official state agency in charge of the aircraft accident branch to release such informations. This official state agency asks the agency in charge of the ATC to give them the transcript for a possible, or not, later public publication. This is an ATC communications not OPS ones. And we are still waiting. In the AFR447 case, transcripts were published by the Brazilian authorities rather quickly and, in this case, nothing yet.
For some unknown reason MAS has never released the preceding few transmissions leading to the last transmission causing all this speculation
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Mr. Sky,
Power up sequence would have SATCOM waking up and sending an initiating "I'm here" logon message. This is also true in the case of a temporary loss and subsequent recovery of the Left Main AC bus.
It does upon loss of both AC transfer busses.
According to our guy in coveralls, the DC APU pump suction port is located within a few yards of the aft main AC boost pump inlet. The DC APU pump housing is located in the center tank, but the inlet is in the left main tank. If there is pressure on the left engine fuel manifold, the DC pump does not run and the left main boost pumps are the source(s) of fuel pressure for the APU.
There is no dedicated ACARS "receiver", however the VHF radios provide a primary means of communication and are powered by DC busses. ACARS is an integrated sub-function of the dual AIMS, which is also DC powered. (I covered this function earlier.) Provided there is no DC bus fault, the AIMS, Comms radios, and ACARS would be up and running despite a loss of AC power. Naturally, any data inputs from equipment that relies on AC power would go quiet.
Total loss of AC power would be a very unusual event on this aircraft, barring fuel starvation. There are a total of 5 high-capacity AC generators on the aircraft, 4 engine mounted and one 120kva unit in the APU.
2 I'm not familiar with the T7, but flew the 763. Does the apu autostart if there is a complete loss of electrical power on the busses.
3What's the location of the fuel feed for the APU in relation to the Engine feed. Is it likely that that APU would find fuel other than in the fuel line if the engine feeding from that tank shuts down due to fuel starvation.
4 If there is a total AC electrical failure the aircraft will have battery power. What bus is the ACARS receiver powered from? In other words when a 777 is on 30mins (?) of battery power is the ACARS still functioning in its basic mode?
Total loss of AC power would be a very unusual event on this aircraft, barring fuel starvation. There are a total of 5 high-capacity AC generators on the aircraft, 4 engine mounted and one 120kva unit in the APU.
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Pontius,
Many thanks for your swift and informative reply.
Wondering about press reports, I stuck me head in the recycle bin and recovered several of last weeks newspapers. The Daily Mail for Thursday, March, 27th stated that MH370 was tracked by military radar and was shown to make a sharp turn to the west ( away from it's north easterly course ) and started flying as high as 45,000ft and as low as 12,oooft before contact with it was lost. Would 45,000 feet be above the normal operational height for this aircraft?
Many thanks for your swift and informative reply.
Wondering about press reports, I stuck me head in the recycle bin and recovered several of last weeks newspapers. The Daily Mail for Thursday, March, 27th stated that MH370 was tracked by military radar and was shown to make a sharp turn to the west ( away from it's north easterly course ) and started flying as high as 45,000ft and as low as 12,oooft before contact with it was lost. Would 45,000 feet be above the normal operational height for this aircraft?
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Missing Malaysia Airlines plane: Australian aircraft spots four orange objects at sea
Read more: Missing Malaysia Airlines plane: Australian aircraft spots four orange objects at sea
Read more: Missing Malaysia Airlines plane: Australian aircraft spots four orange objects at sea
Many have commented that the MH370 thread is becoming unwieldy, despite the heroic efforts of the moderators.
Perhaps the moderators could ease the crush by setting up the first 10-30 or so comments as status reports, summarizing the state of discourse. That way, the few facts and the very useful technical contributions that are the meat of this discussion would be more easily available to all. The moderators could extend the utility of such a fixed input by highlighting open issues and maybe even FAQs.
Perhaps the moderators could ease the crush by setting up the first 10-30 or so comments as status reports, summarizing the state of discourse. That way, the few facts and the very useful technical contributions that are the meat of this discussion would be more easily available to all. The moderators could extend the utility of such a fixed input by highlighting open issues and maybe even FAQs.
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"An Australian military aircraft has spotted four orange objects at sea, more than two metres in size, which will be analysed by the Australian co-ordination centre for missing flight MH370"
For those with the knowledge, is there anything on the 777 that would match this description?
For those with the knowledge, is there anything on the 777 that would match this description?