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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Old 30th Mar 2014, 22:21
  #8781 (permalink)  
 
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Jilted:

For some unknown reason MAS has never released the preceding few transmissions leading to the last transmission causing all this speculation. He may, in fact, have read back the handoff and ATC replied with "have a good flight" or "see you at the party tomorrow night".
From:
Malaysia says there's sealed evidence on MH370 that cannot be made public

BEIJING - A Malaysian team have told relatives of Chinese passengers on board the missing Malaysia Airlines (MAS) flight MH370 that there was sealed evidence that cannot be made public, as they came under fire from the angry relatives at a briefing on Wednesday.



The sealed evidence included air traffic control radio transcript, radar data and airport security recordings.
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Old 30th Mar 2014, 22:25
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For those with the knowledge, is there anything on the 777 that would match this description?
According to some 777 pilot on CNN - not likely. All inflatable life rafts are yellow, pilot's life jackets are orange but the size is too large unless you clamp them together.
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Old 30th Mar 2014, 22:49
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Seafloor in search box

Seabed of jet hunt zone mostly flat with one trench (Update)
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Old 30th Mar 2014, 23:02
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It seems increasingly unlikely that any trace of this aircraft will ever be found.


In US terms, the current guidance is roughly this:
We think an aircraft has crashed about 1100 miles off the coast of California.
Please find the debris. We don't know that there are any afloat, but some may wash ashore, so check the West Coast and the sea bed.


Am I the only one to think this absurd?
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Old 30th Mar 2014, 23:03
  #8785 (permalink)  
 
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Had there been a credible threat of the a/c being used as a weapon in a populated area it would have been shot down by military. No question about it, post 911. After all, all souls on board would have been lost either way. I still hope, albeit less optimistically, that there are survivors and hope the search continues in earnest.
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Old 30th Mar 2014, 23:15
  #8786 (permalink)  
 
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Too much faith...

Had there been a credible threat of the a/c being used as a weapon in a populated area it would have been shot down by military. No question about it, post 911. After all, all souls on board would have been lost either way. I still hope, albeit less optimistically, that there are survivors and hope the search continues in earnest.
You are putting too much faith in the capabilities and alertness of the relevant militaries.
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Old 30th Mar 2014, 23:19
  #8787 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ChrisVJ
Of course it's just PURE SPECULATION but it fits the known facts as well as anything else. (And as well as many other scenarios)
No.. it doesn't fit the facts...
for one of flying along FIR borders.
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Old 30th Mar 2014, 23:30
  #8788 (permalink)  
 
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Doppler Analysis data

MountainBear wrote:
As for the two minute intervals (in the doppler data) that looks superficially like data corruption. 30, 60, 90, 120 seconds are standard intervals for wait times if the connection is not satisfactory. E.,g. Try the connection, if it doesn't work, wait 120 seconds, try again.
Sounds logical, however how would/should/could the dopper shift be calculated if there was an incomplete or corrupted response from the a/c.
As I understand it these are very simple transmissions, as simple as:

Sat: "MH370?" (or other identifier)
A/C: "MH370"

Of the a/c response were corrupted, how could one tell that it was MH370 responding? If it were corrupted but identifiable as MH370, perhaps the doppler shift not be given the same weight as other uncorrupted responses.

I'm not suggesting that you are incorrect, rather just wondering about the validity of the shift data at 18:25 and 18:28 (if corrupt). If they were not included in the AAIB curve, it would certainly change the shape of that curves during the first couple of hours.
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Old 31st Mar 2014, 01:27
  #8789 (permalink)  
 
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todays search area 31/3/14

https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws...._area_wide.pdf
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Old 31st Mar 2014, 01:33
  #8790 (permalink)  
 
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What is all this pinging in my ears?

I want to go back a ways. If for some still unknown reason at the time of reaching the FIR boundary, everything went dark (on a moonless night to boot), what actual systems would the crew have available to them to work with?

And as far as all the ‘pings’ are concerned… does the RAT factor in here at all? Understand that it alone does not power Satcom, but what are the triggers for RAT auto activation /deployment?

Is it only fuel exhaustion (as seen in Gimpy Glider scenario)?

Also can the RAT be deployed manually… and is there a max airspeed/altitude either for initial deployment or continuous operation?
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Old 31st Mar 2014, 01:41
  #8791 (permalink)  
 
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I covered the 777 RAT a few pages ago. It deploys automatically after both AC transfer busses remain unpowered for 15 seconds. Can be deployed at the push of a button, yes.

Fuel exhaustion is one scenario that would trigger auto RAT deployment, that is to say a loss of AC power due to both engines spinning down and no APU start. Not a 777 driver, mind you, but you'll find the information above to be accurate from a maintenance engineer's point of view.
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Old 31st Mar 2014, 01:48
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Many people seem to consider the mobile phone being unidentified is suspicious. As someone who lives in Asia I can say that most of the phones here are of the same type. A sim card is bought at a 7/11 or any corner shop. It is prepaid and can be topped up. Postpaid phoness are a much more complicated process as they involve credit checks etc.
In theory ID is needed to buy a phone but almost without exception the clerk at 7/11 will make an error in transcribing the ID munber. This may of course be an accident but it happens so often that I think an understanding of privacy needs is assumed or a dislike of being regimented.
As it is so easy to get a phone number may change them often. In fact last week I left my phone home and had to buy a sim myself so I could use other people's phones to ring home. It took me one minute.
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Old 31st Mar 2014, 02:22
  #8793 (permalink)  
 
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If they were not included in the AAIB curve, it would certainly change the shape of that curves during the first couple of hours.
In fact, there is NO curve for the pings retrieved, just dots. For the "predicted" data, as the are from maths, ok to publish curves. But joining the data by a line between true pings it is (IMHO) way too far. Look at the charts (blue dots have been made bigger on the chart without the lines just for better looking):

Just to show the limit of these data. The chart are respectively from http://www.straitstimes.com/sites/st...325/graphe.jpg and from Excel by using the values deduced from the first chart (and thus not perfectly the same).
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Old 31st Mar 2014, 02:31
  #8794 (permalink)  
 
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AMSA News ‏@AMSA_News 3m
HMAS Toowoomba has made best speed and has entered the search area for #MH370 after departing on Saturday afternoon.
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Old 31st Mar 2014, 02:44
  #8795 (permalink)  
 
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HMAS Toowoomba doesn't have the pinger locator nor the ROV - they're only leaving Perth later today on the Ocean Shield - and there have been repeated statements from AMSA that the pinger locator will
only be deployed, when confirmed wreckage is discovered.
I don't know if that attitude will alter when Ocean Shield reaches the search zone, and there's still no sign of confirmed wreckage.
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Old 31st Mar 2014, 03:02
  #8796 (permalink)  
 
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But joining the data by a line between true pings it is (IMHO) way too far
If you don't like the connecting line - fine, but it doesn't change anything - the data points alone still point to much better fit for the southern route than northern.
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Old 31st Mar 2014, 03:35
  #8797 (permalink)  
 
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The engine monitoring system sends messages via ACARS to Rolls Royce as and when certain parameters change in the engines. If ACARS is unavailable then the aircraft attempts to forward the data via the INMARSAT system. Malaysian Airways chose not to pay the subscription fee for the satellite service, although the aircraft satellite transponder remained active.

So the aircraft satellite transponder just sends an hourly data ping to the satellite confirming the system is there, similar to a mobile phone on standby or emergency calls only setting notifying the network of its availability and location.

The pings that appeared out of schedule were in all likelyhood a response to some change in the engine parameters. Because ACARS was unavailable, an attempt was made to transmit the data via INMARSAT. A ping was sent to establish communication. The satellite recognised that no paid subscription was in force, so the request for further data transmission was rejected.

Everything worked exactly as it was supposed to.

The final partial ping can be attributed to power being interrupted to the satellite transponder and it powering up and running a self test program that was interrupted by losing power again. Just like turning a mobile phone on and off again before it has finished initialising. A data burst is sent to the network saying 'I am here'.

It would be reasonable to assume that the final partial ping corresponds to the approximate time the engines stopped due to fuel exhaustion and power was lost to the electrical systems. The satellite transponder is not considered an essential system, so it would not run from the RAT generator if deployed.

Everything points to the system operating entirely normally including the out of sequence pings.
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Old 31st Mar 2014, 04:00
  #8798 (permalink)  
 
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Content of engine monitoring system messages ?

To quote G0ULI ..."The engine monitoring system sends messages via ACARS to Rolls Royce as and when certain parameters change in the engines."

I guess the protocol is proprietary to RR but do we actually know just what such a message would contain ? Is it just engine related or does it contain location / height information also ?
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Old 31st Mar 2014, 04:16
  #8799 (permalink)  
 
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Content of engine monitoring system messages ?

Some of the B777 messages have lat/long and Alt in them and some do not. However the spatial data refers to where the engine snapshot was taken, not where it was transmitted. The messages sent back to RR would have been just off the runway to reflect take off power and possibly, not definitely, at a nominated height to reflect climb power.

If something had malfunctioned or there was an out of spec reading then this would have triggered a different report. A lot has been made of the ACARS system being off, but unless there was something wrong with the aircraft the system would have created a snapshot when it was supposed to and transmitted it when it could.
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Old 31st Mar 2014, 05:04
  #8800 (permalink)  
 
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If ACARS is unavailable then the aircraft attempts to forward the data via the INMARSAT system.
No. Swift will only attempt to forward the data via any connection if the airline has subscribed.

The satellite recognised that no paid subscription was in force, so the request for further data transmission was rejected.
No. Details about the subscription is located in the FMS on the plane.

Malaysia Airlines didn?t buy computer upgrade that could have given data on missing flight - The Washington Post

So Swift trying to contact the ground station cannot possibly explain the odd pings.


Edit: According to the article below the only ping that originated in the aircraft was the final "partial ping". All the other pings were initiated by the ground station.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...800102412.html

Last edited by MountainBear; 31st Mar 2014 at 05:10. Reason: updated info.
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