Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
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Chris McLoughlin of Inmarsat was just on The Kelly File. When she pressed him, he stated that the plane took the southern route. This was based on their comparisons of pings from other Malaysian aircraft that took the northern route.
http://foxnewsinsider.com/2014/03/20...-370s-location
http://foxnewsinsider.com/2014/03/20...-370s-location
Last edited by PlatinumFlyer; 25th Mar 2014 at 01:40. Reason: Edited to add link
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Could the membership explain something to me please?
As I understand it, the a/c had reached 35K or so after departure, and then abruptly turned and descended to 12K over Malaysia on its way south. It eventually appears to have crashed at, or just beyond, the predicted fuel exhaustion radius.
Would that fuel exhaustion radius be the range at 12K, or for a B777 at a "normal" cruise altitude (i.e. 30-40K)? I imagine the radius at 12K is considerably shorter.
If it's the higher altitude, then the question in my mind is how/why did it regain altitude? If it could only be by commanded intervention, then I'm at a loss as to why it continued in a straight line.
Conversely, if it had all gone wrong an hour or so after departure, and they had headed home or to an alternate airfield, at 12K, but just not made it, why would the aircraft ascend (if it did) to reach the range that it appears to have.
Or is the range to where the search is currently centered "reasonable" at 12K?
As I understand it, the a/c had reached 35K or so after departure, and then abruptly turned and descended to 12K over Malaysia on its way south. It eventually appears to have crashed at, or just beyond, the predicted fuel exhaustion radius.
Would that fuel exhaustion radius be the range at 12K, or for a B777 at a "normal" cruise altitude (i.e. 30-40K)? I imagine the radius at 12K is considerably shorter.
If it's the higher altitude, then the question in my mind is how/why did it regain altitude? If it could only be by commanded intervention, then I'm at a loss as to why it continued in a straight line.
Conversely, if it had all gone wrong an hour or so after departure, and they had headed home or to an alternate airfield, at 12K, but just not made it, why would the aircraft ascend (if it did) to reach the range that it appears to have.
Or is the range to where the search is currently centered "reasonable" at 12K?
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@syseng68k
It's actually much easier to recover data from over-written digital media. FBI software can recover data from digital media that has been over-written multiple times, or reformatted repeatedly.
If in fact the airplane did get down to 12K over Malyasia, I find it disturbing that NO phone data was found. Not one passengers phone was left on or if a rapid decent no one tried to call home or anyone? Has there been any attempt to pull passengers phone records for the time frame??
As a commuter I see all the time peoples phones on, and not in airplane mode....
As a commuter I see all the time peoples phones on, and not in airplane mode....
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Roadster280
There is considerable doubt about the reported height of the aircraft as determined by radar. The INMARSAT data indicates that the aircraft flew at constant altitude and speed in order to reach the area that is now being searched for debris.
Radar tracking of primary returns can be very inaccurate unless a target is being deliberately targetted and tracked. The track and height of MH370 seems to have been derived from sweep recordings of the radar examined after the event. The aircraft was initially flying along civilian airways and not towards any military installations when it turned off its planned flight path. Since the aircraft was assumed to be a civil flight and did not represent a threat, it was not tracked. The estimates of the height and possible altitude changes were all calculated (or estimated) after it was announced that the aircraft had disappeared.
Clearly the military will not want to reveal the capabilities or shortcomings of their radar systems or alert status, so the radar data and height changes reported should be regarded as being possibly inaccurate or not having occured at all.
There is considerable doubt about the reported height of the aircraft as determined by radar. The INMARSAT data indicates that the aircraft flew at constant altitude and speed in order to reach the area that is now being searched for debris.
Radar tracking of primary returns can be very inaccurate unless a target is being deliberately targetted and tracked. The track and height of MH370 seems to have been derived from sweep recordings of the radar examined after the event. The aircraft was initially flying along civilian airways and not towards any military installations when it turned off its planned flight path. Since the aircraft was assumed to be a civil flight and did not represent a threat, it was not tracked. The estimates of the height and possible altitude changes were all calculated (or estimated) after it was announced that the aircraft had disappeared.
Clearly the military will not want to reveal the capabilities or shortcomings of their radar systems or alert status, so the radar data and height changes reported should be regarded as being possibly inaccurate or not having occured at all.
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Ok, that makes sense. If the descent to 12K and then climb to a normal cruise altitude potentially didn't take place, then that answers my question. Thanks!
Originally Posted by emirmorocan
The AF447 did not take two years to be found,the black boxes took two years.
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Mobile Phone
A few comments on this thread about the lack of mobile phone use
4 years ago I flew from LHR via BKK to SYD. On departure I put the phone in the overhead bin. 23hrs later on arriving at SYD I went to turn it on only to find I'd not actually turned it off. The only messages were welcoming me to Bangkok and Sydney which surprised me given that we'd tracked over most of Europe.
4 years ago I flew from LHR via BKK to SYD. On departure I put the phone in the overhead bin. 23hrs later on arriving at SYD I went to turn it on only to find I'd not actually turned it off. The only messages were welcoming me to Bangkok and Sydney which surprised me given that we'd tracked over most of Europe.
Descent to 12000ft ... Red herring!
I understand the Inmarsat investigation has confirmed there was no descent below 30000ft.
It is exceptionally unlikely they followed the initial descent and then re climbed back to 30k.
They will find this aircraft. They have to. The insurance industry will finance a lot of it to try and ensure there isn't a repeat. Just like AF447.
It is exceptionally unlikely they followed the initial descent and then re climbed back to 30k.
They will find this aircraft. They have to. The insurance industry will finance a lot of it to try and ensure there isn't a repeat. Just like AF447.
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Heard and McDonald Islands
Prevailing Southern Ocean current systems south of the present MH370 search area would appear to favour any MH370 flotsam eventually turning up along the shores of Heard and McDonald Islands - some 1400 kms further to the SSW.
I wonder how often ships visit these seal-populated Australian protectorates? (and whether they could/would ever be tasked to scour their shorelines?).
As far as Australian government departments with responsibilities in these areas would be aware, they'd just not know about any such visits by sealers or sea-bird harvesters. I doubt that any Jap whalers or such-like would ever visit these Antarctic-proximate islands except to ravage the seal-population - and wouldn't bother applying for visas to do so.
I wonder how often ships visit these seal-populated Australian protectorates? (and whether they could/would ever be tasked to scour their shorelines?).
As far as Australian government departments with responsibilities in these areas would be aware, they'd just not know about any such visits by sealers or sea-bird harvesters. I doubt that any Jap whalers or such-like would ever visit these Antarctic-proximate islands except to ravage the seal-population - and wouldn't bother applying for visas to do so.
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CommanderCYYZ
Digital data can be recovered from large capacity USB sticks and the like because new data is written to 'fresh' areas of memory. When a file is deleted, only the file name is deleted and the memory locations used flagged as available to be re used once all the other free space is used up. Essentially the same technique has been used in floppy disks and magnetic hard drives. So data can be deleted but it is not overwritten until there is nowhere else to put new information that needs to be recorded. Quick formatting a flash drive, doesn't delete the data on the drive, it just resets it so that all memory positions are shown as being available to be overwritten. A full low level format of a flash drive will irrevokably delete all data.
With smaller sized memory devices that are constantly being overwritten with new data, it is not possible to recover anything more than a few memory blocks of data that has been deleted to make way for overwritting new data.
So with multi-gigabyte and terabyte drives used in typical laptop and desktop computers, there is a very good chance of retrieving huge quantities of deleted data using forensic software. This is because the capcity of the drives means that the deleted data is never overwritten because the drive never fills right up. The memory chips used in the flight data recorder are too limited in capacity for any useful additional data to be recovered apart from the latest recording.
Old style floppy disks which were swapped between computers had relatively wide tracks of data and poor tolerances with regard to the accurate positioning of the read write heads. It was possible to recover previously written files in some circumstances, even though they had been overwritten by new data. Modern hard disks operate to such fine tolerances, that once data is overwritten, there is virtually no chance of successfully recovering the original data. A magnetic hard drive that has been reformatted may retain a faint magnetic trace of data that was written to the drive provided that it has not been overwritten by new data.
The labouriousness and costs associated with forensic data recovery cannot be overstated. It takes ages, costs an absolute fortune and frequently all you end up with is fragments of files that are unsuitable for evidential purposes, but can assist a stalled investigation. I once spent six weeks recovering the contents of eight floppy disks. I would hate to have to try to rebuild more modern memory devices.
Digital data can be recovered from large capacity USB sticks and the like because new data is written to 'fresh' areas of memory. When a file is deleted, only the file name is deleted and the memory locations used flagged as available to be re used once all the other free space is used up. Essentially the same technique has been used in floppy disks and magnetic hard drives. So data can be deleted but it is not overwritten until there is nowhere else to put new information that needs to be recorded. Quick formatting a flash drive, doesn't delete the data on the drive, it just resets it so that all memory positions are shown as being available to be overwritten. A full low level format of a flash drive will irrevokably delete all data.
With smaller sized memory devices that are constantly being overwritten with new data, it is not possible to recover anything more than a few memory blocks of data that has been deleted to make way for overwritting new data.
So with multi-gigabyte and terabyte drives used in typical laptop and desktop computers, there is a very good chance of retrieving huge quantities of deleted data using forensic software. This is because the capcity of the drives means that the deleted data is never overwritten because the drive never fills right up. The memory chips used in the flight data recorder are too limited in capacity for any useful additional data to be recovered apart from the latest recording.
Old style floppy disks which were swapped between computers had relatively wide tracks of data and poor tolerances with regard to the accurate positioning of the read write heads. It was possible to recover previously written files in some circumstances, even though they had been overwritten by new data. Modern hard disks operate to such fine tolerances, that once data is overwritten, there is virtually no chance of successfully recovering the original data. A magnetic hard drive that has been reformatted may retain a faint magnetic trace of data that was written to the drive provided that it has not been overwritten by new data.
The labouriousness and costs associated with forensic data recovery cannot be overstated. It takes ages, costs an absolute fortune and frequently all you end up with is fragments of files that are unsuitable for evidential purposes, but can assist a stalled investigation. I once spent six weeks recovering the contents of eight floppy disks. I would hate to have to try to rebuild more modern memory devices.
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Ocean floor geology
AF447 crashed in an area where the sea floor was pretty mountainous, with canyons and ridges everywhere (I found the great graphic below here).
The sea floor where they think MH370 crashed is basically one big abyssal plain: featureless and flat. I suspect this might make wreckage more apparent in sonar scans, compared to AF447.
The sea floor where they think MH370 crashed is basically one big abyssal plain: featureless and flat. I suspect this might make wreckage more apparent in sonar scans, compared to AF447.
4 years ago I flew from LHR via BKK to SYD.
I had the opposite experience. LAX to BKK. Welcoming messages from mobile companies in Alaska, Russia, China and Taiwan.
This happens due to the aircraft being in a high-angle antenna sidelobe long enough to make a connection. I expect you might be able to send an SMS during one of these brief connections, but I doubt you could make a voice call.
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http://news.yahoo.com/pilots-tried-s...-politics.html
This seems more reasonable than any other explanation.
Look at what happened, we have been taught this in the sim for many years, descend, turn off the tract, land at nearest suitable airport.
Seems they tried to do this.
Even Fox News Bill Reilly slams the pilots.
I hope when the news agency are proven wrong they have the respect to state it.
This seems more reasonable than any other explanation.
Look at what happened, we have been taught this in the sim for many years, descend, turn off the tract, land at nearest suitable airport.
Seems they tried to do this.
Even Fox News Bill Reilly slams the pilots.
I hope when the news agency are proven wrong they have the respect to state it.
These frequency shifts range from an increase of about 325Hz to a decrease of about 750Hz. I will say this: the Inmarsat people must be very good engineers to detect such small changes in a 1600MHz carrier, particularly when their radio equipment was probably designed to overcome and ignore such noise.
I hope and believe there is indeed independent evidence used to refine the Inmarsat data. If so then I believe we will eventually find the aircraft.
It would seem strange if 7 or 8 pings were heard by a satellite in ego orbit, and not one was heard by other satellites designed specifically to pick up faint signals. Particularly given the pings were coming from a fairly quiet location (mid-ocean), but from a general area (mid east and Pakistan) covered by plenty of satellites.
Would it be possible that people were even looking for the aircraft towards the end of its flight when they knew it was missing?
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Originally Posted by Capn_Bloggs
Pedanticism. The only things "found" straight away were small floating bits and the fin.
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About the Doppler effect: it is because the sat moves that the distinction north/south had been made. The sat speed varies something between 200 and 300 kph along its tinny orbit. See these excellent posts:
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post8398811
and
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post8399042
About the cellphones "not pinging": the question was in air (!) many posts ago and somebody told that a search about those of the crew had been made and nothing had been found. Unfortunatly, I think these ones have the most chance to be off and I doubt the ones of the pax were also searched: anything credible about this?
Is there anything in Inmarsat and/or AAIB which implies the a/c was west of Malacca Strait at one time? Or we will be said later MH370 flew straight above Indonesia?
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post8398811
and
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post8399042
About the cellphones "not pinging": the question was in air (!) many posts ago and somebody told that a search about those of the crew had been made and nothing had been found. Unfortunatly, I think these ones have the most chance to be off and I doubt the ones of the pax were also searched: anything credible about this?
Is there anything in Inmarsat and/or AAIB which implies the a/c was west of Malacca Strait at one time? Or we will be said later MH370 flew straight above Indonesia?
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Shadoko
Re mobile phones
THE Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC) attempted to triangulate the location of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 using phone numbers of passengers on board but to no avail.
The exercise was carried out after it was confirmed that the Boeing 777 jetliner had gone missing.
This was done following claims that family members of passengers from China had established cell phone communication with them.
Sources told the New Straits Times that Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah's cell phone was last used on Friday night, just before take off.
MCMC also zeroed in on three other cell phones belonging to MH370's passengers, namely the wife and two daughters of former Celcom Axiata Bhd chief executive officer Datuk Mohamed Yunus Ramli Abbas.
Efforts to locate signals from the cell phones of Biby Nazli Mohd Hassim, Dina Mohamed Yunus Ramli and Maria Mohamed Yunus Ramli were all unsuccessful.
Bukit Aman's forensics team had also carried out a similar exercise in collaboration with foreign counterparts to establish when the last contact was made by those on the aircraft.
Read more: Triangulation using cell phones fails - General - New Straits Times Triangulation using cell phones fails - General - New Straits Times
THE Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC) attempted to triangulate the location of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 using phone numbers of passengers on board but to no avail.
The exercise was carried out after it was confirmed that the Boeing 777 jetliner had gone missing.
This was done following claims that family members of passengers from China had established cell phone communication with them.
Sources told the New Straits Times that Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah's cell phone was last used on Friday night, just before take off.
MCMC also zeroed in on three other cell phones belonging to MH370's passengers, namely the wife and two daughters of former Celcom Axiata Bhd chief executive officer Datuk Mohamed Yunus Ramli Abbas.
Efforts to locate signals from the cell phones of Biby Nazli Mohd Hassim, Dina Mohamed Yunus Ramli and Maria Mohamed Yunus Ramli were all unsuccessful.
Bukit Aman's forensics team had also carried out a similar exercise in collaboration with foreign counterparts to establish when the last contact was made by those on the aircraft.
Read more: Triangulation using cell phones fails - General - New Straits Times Triangulation using cell phones fails - General - New Straits Times
Props are for boats!
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Well if INMARSAT are right, and lets hope so. We need a lot of luck to find this aircraft now, in that Southern Ocean. Because there is a lot of sea trash, and horrible weather which is only going to get worse as we approach the southern winter season. Can the underwriters see what sort of search bill its going to be?
Will there also be now a Preliminary Accident Report issued by the Malaysian Accident Investigation Board or Team?
Will there also be now a Preliminary Accident Report issued by the Malaysian Accident Investigation Board or Team?
Last edited by Sheep Guts; 25th Mar 2014 at 05:30.