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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:33
  #4181 (permalink)  
 
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Agreed, I would expect the base(s) in the region to be on some escalated level of alert as soon as the plane went missing in "9-11" style transponders off.
I also find quite strange that after having lost a plane, ATC didn't actively attempt to contact it.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:36
  #4182 (permalink)  
 
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Re the "mysterious" extra fuel: what was the designated (filed) alternate for Beijing? Depending upon how far away that alternate was would dictate how much extra fuel was carried.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:39
  #4183 (permalink)  
 
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I also find quite strange that after having lost a plane, ATC didn't actively attempt to contact it.
They did. A post from a pilot on frequency at the time (see 32656 posts ago) said that Ho Chi Minh ATC Quote "was going nuts on 121.5" trying to contact it.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:40
  #4184 (permalink)  
 
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Friend of mine has actually said..."plane hijacked, landed and hidden so PAX organs can be harvested and sold on the black market." Seems reasonable.
The key point is that the hostages have an intrinsic value as hostages. If one of my loved ones were on this flight today's news would have given me optimism. I don't think that the sale of organs makes much sense. Easier to kidnap low-value 'invisible' folk from the bottom tier of society, not somewhere near the top.

It could be that having landed intact (albeit perhaps not in an airworthy condition) the hostages may be on their way to some safe secluded place where their life needs are met with no means of escape or communication. Meanwhile, the hijackers make their way to some other place and make whatever demands they wish. They will promise to give the location of the hostages when their demands are met.

Provided the demands are of a political nature, they could get away with it.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:42
  #4185 (permalink)  
 
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BBC News have just interviewed another "expert" (worked on the 777, now runs a Flight Safety company). Some of what he said lines up more with where I've got to on this if you give the crew the benefit of some doubt:

- as they coast out ACARS fails for whatever reason but unknown to crew
- catastrophic event at IGARI, takes out most other comms / electronics including transponders
- perhaps an explosive decompression
- maybe flying controls degraded too so are using differential power perhaps explaining altitude changes and jinks in heading, either way they now have their hands full
- aircraft barely flyable so they try their best to get back to base, explains left turn if primary radar signal really is MH370
- then in trying to fly / navigate and with no comms it just all gets too much (with / without oxygen) and they're left heading out to sea on whatever heading and altitude they'd managed to get it to but their efforts are all in vain and it goes down, somewhere deep, west of Malaysia.

Something like this still seems plausible to me, more than suicide / heists / bullion / terrorism.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:43
  #4186 (permalink)  
 
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Given that the Malay PM has now put it on record that transponder and ACARS on MH 370 were disabled deliberately the disappearance of this aircraft and passengers now becomes a crime.
When police investigate crimes they may put some info out to the public and appeal for help but they never put all the cards on the table. ('keep the powder dry')
Of course there will be info about MH370 that authorities know which we don't (yet).
It is like trying to complete a jigsaw without all the pieces.
Thanks to posters here who are trying to make sense of the pieces we have.

Edit:
On 11 March it emerged that the Boeing 777's diagnostic maintenance data messaging system, the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS), had sent two bursts of data at both take off and during the plane's climb to cruise altitude. While this was the first sign that investigators had at least some forensic flight data to go on, no further ACARS reports were transmitted.
Now the investigation team thinks they know why.
"Based on new satellite information, we can say with a high degree of certainty that ACARS was disabled just before the aircraft reached the East coast of peninsular Malaysia. Shortly afterwards, near the border between Malaysian and Vietnamese air traffic control, the aircraft's transponder was switched off," Razak says.
In other words somebody who knew what they were doing - or who may have been forcing a pilot to do it - was trying to obscure the plane's position.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/...-disabled.html

Last edited by LegallyBlonde; 16th Mar 2014 at 00:05. Reason: Add link
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:46
  #4187 (permalink)  
 
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Previous hourly pings

Precisely! I'd like to see a map showing each ping and it's arcs. I suspect the USN has this information.
It would be interesting, for example, to see if the arcs of the prior pings were evenly spaced apart, indicating some steady speed and heading.

There was a suggestion in some of the material being leaked from Washington that there was perhaps data indicating a re-fuelling stop before the final ping.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:48
  #4188 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Capt Kremin View Post
The Laverton site could have picked up MH370 if it went south. JORN may not have been switched on however.
Is it turned off at night? Wouldn't make any sense, even if there is no-one physically there watching blank screens, it should be running on "auto" and recording 24x7 for subsequent evaluation.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:49
  #4189 (permalink)  
 
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The one thing that strikes me odd about all the talk of hijack (either to destroy the plane in flight or take it intact) is that no-one has claimed responsibility. If you were a terrorist mastermind and wanted to gain from having pulled off this undertaking, would you not be phoning the local media and making it known by now?

With the way the internet is used on a daily basis to broadcast everyones opinion, not one reference has appears in any news broadcast regarding "we did it"!
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:49
  #4190 (permalink)  
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They must continue searching the South China Sea they don't have enough evidence to not stop. They need to get the CVR and the FDR. I'm afraid if the stop searching near the point of Transponder SSR loss we will never find it and maybe something will wash up on a shoreline in Kuching or Vung Tau or like wise years from now. But it will be too late for any valuable data.
They need to run a test flight with B777 on their suspected turn back scenario with all ground stations radar etc checking their data, to eliminate or confirm their assumptions. Because at the moment they are assumptions only.
I hope the Chinese and Vietnamese keep searching the South China Sea we should support them as much as possible.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:52
  #4191 (permalink)  
 
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It could be that having landed intact (albeit perhaps not in an airworthy condition) the hostages may be on their way to some safe secluded place where their life needs are met with no means of escape or communication.
riiight.....

So, not only have they managed to land and hide 300 tons of aircraft from the worlds eyes from over a week, but they've also managed to discreetly transport 300 people to a different location which is basically (by your description) a fully equipped, self-sufficient prison building they've also taken over, and have been catering to their every need for a week without communication or being spotted.

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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:53
  #4192 (permalink)  
 
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As soon as you think you've heard all possible theories, another one more whacky than the last crops up !
One things almost for sure, the law of large numbers will dictate that one of, or a convolution of the theories on this thread will be the correct one.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:54
  #4193 (permalink)  
 
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JORN

@Capt Kremin: Even if JORN was operational, it would not necessarily have detected the aircraft. The factsheet says

OTHR systems operate on the Doppler principle, where an object will
only be detected if its motion toward or away from the radar is different from the movement of
its surroundings. Objects travelling tangentially to an OTHR are therefore unlikely to be
detected by that radar.
And also:

OTHRs do not continually ‘sweep’ an area like conventional radars but rather ‘dwell’ by focusing
the radar’s energy on a particular area – referred to as a ‘tile’ – within the total area of coverage
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:54
  #4194 (permalink)  
 
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It would be interesting, for example, to see if the arcs of the prior pings were evenly spaced apart, indicating some steady speed and heading.
A steady heading and speed wouldn't give evenly spaced arcs.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:56
  #4195 (permalink)  
 
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Is it feasible that this 777 may have avoided radar detection by staying low to the ground?

For an a/c at 1000ft AGL, a radar at sea level has a theoretical range of under 40nm. In reality this would be even worse assuming there is a direct line of sight.

OK, I know the 1st thing someone will point out - it was night time, so how could it do any low level VFR?

Assuming this thing followed a predetermined track, isn't it possible that (in theory) whoever planned this out had a means of knowing the MSA for each part of the new route and kept the aircraft fairly low to the ground thereby evading radar detection for the last few hours? Even a set of night-vision goggles could be enough for manual low level flying.

I know this sounds very Hollywood-esque and in true PPRuNe style, but we already know that whoever flew this plane after it disappeared tried pretty hard to make it disappear for a reason no one can explain so far.

Feel free to poke holes in my theory. I'm just speculating like everyone else and trying to give a plausible solution to the dilemma of the a/c not being detected by radar if it flew North after it vanished.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 23:57
  #4196 (permalink)  
 
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You think any eyebrows will lift if Iran Air turns up on a scheduled arrival in Europe some place with a freshly painted 777 in a few weeks time?

Or will we shortly be seeing news reports from Iran, where the state aircraft manufacturer is proudly rolling out it's new invention: A plane that looks remarkably similar to a 777-200ER?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 00:00
  #4197 (permalink)  
 
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Bearcat F8F

I suggest you read up on EGPWS.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 00:02
  #4198 (permalink)  
 
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A UK newspaper is reporting that the captain attended the high-profile trial of the opposition leader of Malaysia just a few hours before the flight, which doesn't seem like the most calming thing to do before piloting an international commercial flight:

Doomed airliner pilot was political fanatic: Hours before taking control of flight MH370 he attended trial of jailed opposition leader as FBI reveal passengers could be at a secret location | Mail Online
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 00:04
  #4199 (permalink)  
 
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@BARKINGMAD

Xcitation: please read the account of how Uncle Sams military and allegedly his ATC organisation behaved on Sept 11th and then say you are confident that the scramble scenario would occur "TopGun" style in this corner of the world as you believe it should have.

It's nearly 13 years since that event, and it is probable that until this week most military setups are not really on alert like a coiled spring as the public would like to imagine.

Within weeks of 9/11 a small turboprop aircraft was discovered straying in the London TMA without a single F3 Tornado launched in response, not exactly trumpeted by the authorities at the time.
Do you really think that US/UK ATC would not respond to transport who turn off transponder and comms then change heading to a large military base? I can assure you that things have changed in the US since 9-11. There have been many incidents of F-16s surprising a/c that failed to respond. It saddens me that the RAF has been cut back so much since the cold war.

However to your point I am surprised that certain parts of the world apparently turn off all air defenses at 5pm so they can all go home for the evening.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 00:08
  #4200 (permalink)  
 
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RI radar 'did not detect MH370 in Malacca Strait'

"Hadi told The Jakarta Post that the Indonesian Air Force’s radar unit in Lhokseumawe, Aceh, did not detect the missing MH370 in the area where the Malaysian military suggested as being the plane’s last detected position around Penang waters.

“Our radar information has been shared with our Malaysian counterparts,” he said.

When asked if Lhokseumawe radar’s coverage had reached Penang, he only said that the radar had the capability to detect flying objects for up to 240 nautical miles, or about 445 kilometers.

A rough calculation using Google Earth shows that Lhokseumawe’s distance to Penang is about 300 kilometers, meaning that the radar could cover up to the Malaysian Peninsula."


RI radar 'did not detect MH370 in Malacca Strait': Air Force | The Jakarta Post
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