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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 15th Mar 2014, 06:46
  #3701 (permalink)  
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The last CONFIRMED contact with satellite was at 8.11am local. That is 7.5 hours after take off, which would be at the extreme of suggested range, based on fuel suggested fuel load.
Anywhere that they might have made a quick stop, had a fuel truck waiting (or even siphoned from another plane) and taken off again?

Or have we ever gotten an accurate accounting of just how much fuel was on board when they initially took off?

This whole thing seems to be planned too well to cut it that close on fuel. That would be taking a big chance with unfavorable winds, etc.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 06:46
  #3702 (permalink)  
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Egypt Air FO was under investigation for incident with hotel chambermaid?
MI185 ex-airforce capt lost his TR ticket due to SB switch off habit?

Was the Capt or FO under any Co. disciplinary action?

Horrible questions, but have to cover every angle.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 06:46
  #3703 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by nitpicker330 View Post
2/ how much fuel did it depart with
This was answered on day 1. It had enough to get to Beijing and an extra hour.

so 7 hours (plus or minus a bit).

The SATCOM indicates 7.5 hours of flight.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 06:50
  #3704 (permalink)  
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The Malaysian PM just finished a press conference, took no questions. Some quick take aways from scribbled notes, this is what I thought I heard:

Said human intervention was likely but still declined to say it was hijacking. One continuing focus of the investigation is the pax and crew given the latest developments.

Said there was a new northern search corridor toward Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Northern Thailand, and a southern search corridor toward Indonesia and the South Indian Ocean.

The military primary radar correlates with the satellite provider information, the track of the unknown aircraft flying back over peninsular Malaysia was indeed MH 370. ACARS was switched off before the transponder as the aircraft first left the Malaysian coast outbound.

Last satellite transmission received from MH 370 was at 8:11 am (!). Wow, this is new.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 06:55
  #3706 (permalink)  
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If the last satellite ping was 8:11am local, then do they have position information with that also? I mean, last known position from a satellite fix?

Hard to believe it could land some place else, refuel and take off again without anyone noticing.

I tend to agree with a previous poster who commented that she went to the limit of her fuel and is now in the drink somewhere.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 06:55
  #3707 (permalink)  
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MH370 is thought to have gone in one of these two directions.

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Old 15th Mar 2014, 06:56
  #3708 (permalink)  
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Main things from the press conference (March 15 - 16:30 ADST):

ACARS turned off before transponder turned off. "Turned off" was the exact words used.

"Satellite" data has been used to confirm that the primary radar returns of what they *thought* was MH370 was indeed MH370, and track went as previously reported - over the Malacca(?) Straight.

No mention of altitude changes.

"Satellite" data (after other comms lost) *cannot* precisely locate the aircraft, but its was in one of two "corridors".

Last comms to satellite was 08:11(?? - many hours after initial course change).

Investigations now re-focusing on crew and PAX (that order). Still looking into everything and anything.

SAR canceled in South China sea. SAR being re-tasked to likely areas.

There was a lot of "international co-operation" talk etc etc. NTSB, FAA + man + goat have access to the data and are all trying to contribute.

One thing about the speech - it was very exact and precise. I watched the ABC24(AU) live stream - they showed the english speech (not sure if there was a Malay version). That speech had been vetted by very technical people. No wiggle room for interpretation.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 06:56
  #3709 (permalink)  
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So the aircraft flew in one of these two directions.
There are also reports of it heading south.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 06:57
  #3710 (permalink)  
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Some posters need to take a step back. There is absolutely a 0% (zero) chance this a/c entered Russian airspace.
Did you forget about the Cessna-172 which was flown unchallenged across former Soviet Air Defense Identification Zone from Helsinki to Moscow, and successfully landed in Red Square?
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 06:59
  #3711 (permalink)  
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Speculators on the a/c landing and/or refuelling somewhere need to be aware that US and other satellites can read the writing on a B777's wing and they will have been checking at remote strips all week. The unknown is how long it takes to bring the sats to bear and whether there were sufficient gaps in that process. And, yes, they can identify a B777 using I/R at night.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:00
  #3712 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by slats11 View Post
This is a lot larger than an aviation issue. There is at times a need for operational security. Frustrating at times, but necessary. .
If I was one of the relatives of those onboard, I'd want to know straight away where the aircraft was, likewise the 12 or 14 countries that wasted millions of dollars because Malaysia wouldn't communicate what was happening is criminal.

Everyone knows time is critical, if authorities/search parties had been looking in the correct place from day 1 these terrorists may well be in custody, and the passengers safely back at home long ago!
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:01
  #3713 (permalink)  
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If this a/c has been stolen, then certain things must be factored in.

First, whoever flew it away must have been working in concert with a ground team at the place they were heading for.

Therefore, they must have had some way of contacting that ground team to let them know they were a 'go' and that they were en route with the a/c.

How? SATCOMs, logically.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:01
  #3714 (permalink)  
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Afghanistan or Pakistan , surely too much military hardware for it to approach there.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:03
  #3715 (permalink)  
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There will be many layers to the way the authorities have played this. They may have leaked some details re satire tracking because they know this aircraft has crashed and it poses no risk. Or because they fear it has landed and wish to deter any further flights of this aircraft. Or simply to discourage future such events.

But there will have been a reason why it was leaked.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:03
  #3716 (permalink)  
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red herring

I'd be very cautious of giving too much credibility to the "stan" theoretical route. I guess that the Malaysians have chucked that in to counter Chinese criticism of the search so far. Any route from Gulf of Thailand to the stans would take the a/c through Chinese airspace or at least radar cover.

Also - a few home truths about the stans from someone who has travelled and worked in all of them over the years.

Pretty much all are ruled by anti-Islamist (though obviously Muslim) dictatorships or autarchies, who are mostly desperate to bring their countries into the international community at some level.
Geo-strategically they are beholden to and dependent on Russia and China.
Defensively they all use Soviet-era kit, and have large defence forces and good radar cover. It is unlikely they would allow penetration of airspace by an unidentified aircraft.

The only significant US-related target in the Stans is Manas airbase in Kyrgyzstan, which is scheduled to close in July 2014.

I assess it as extremely unlikely that a 777 could be brought into the Stans without being identified and probably intercepted; and impossible (not a word I use lightly) that any state actor in the region would encourage or tolerate such an act.

Also, before we get too excited about Uighur seperatists in Xinjiang, the Chinese have the place under almost complete control. If they allowed (or failed to notice) a hijacked airliner to land within Chinese sovereign territory, the repercussions internally would be inconceivable.

The only possibility with the so-called "Northern route" that I can see is that the aircraft was intercepted and destroyed or forced down in NW China by Chinese air defence. There are huge areas (look at the Takla Makan desert on GE) where this could be effected without attracting too much notice.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:04
  #3717 (permalink)  
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Quote: Earlier in the week the Uighurs claimed responsibility, but it was dismissed as very unlikely. Now one has to wonder...

There was one Uighur among the pax.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:04
  #3718 (permalink)  
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OK if it took the path towards Central Asia, didnt' Indian Radars detect this "Unidentified object" ? any statements from Indians?
What if Indian radars detected the same, scrambled the jet and took it out. They have capability and hardware to do that and their airforce is quite edgy at this moment.

Obviously, they will maintain a stony silence given Chinese nationals on plane.

Whatever, the key question is MOTIVE? Who and why will someone do this act.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:06
  #3719 (permalink)  
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Now, assuming that ACARS remained switched off, what was the nature of the signals the satellite picked up until 08.11hrs local?
The satcom was active and linking to INMARSAT until 8:11am. ACARS uses the satcom to send messages (automated or manual) to the company, Rolls Royce, or Boeing- depending.

Both the ATC transponder and the ACARS *link* to the satcom were manually interrupted at different times. The ACARS would have attempted to send a message (perhaps an automated position report) to the company or Boeing, but someone disabled its ability to do so.

The only way to do that would be to pull the ACARS c/b or disable the SAT link via a sub-menu through an FMS CDU.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 07:06
  #3720 (permalink)  
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So would I PJM. That's why relatives of those involved don't get to make such decisions.

At times the needs of many take priority over the needs of a few.

Don't think any nation will complain about SAR. It would have been valuable training. And no one is immune from this sort if threat = everyone will "cooperate".

Last edited by slats11; 15th Mar 2014 at 07:12. Reason: Typo
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