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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 13th Mar 2014, 08:34
  #2641 (permalink)  
 
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Receipt of engine performance data for several hours is compelling, it assumes serviceable electrical channels, serviceable data busses from wing to main equipment centrex serviceable ACARS VHF systems. If this is verified, it's a game changer.
As you say, if it's verified. But I bet very shortly in this place subsequent the receipt of the data will become fact/an article of faith/a given, so to speak, and off we'll go again....until someone either confirms it or reins it in - such is the nature of speculation and this place.

Frankly most of the stuff coming from the authorities contains an "if" or a "may" (e.g. the primary radar track), whether those on the spot choose to report that, or whether we choose to register the caveat is another matter.

Despite all the debate I'm still of the opinion that this investigation is still at the "nobody's got a ****** clue" stage, which is very sad for the relatives.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 08:34
  #2642 (permalink)  
 
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Is depressurisation part of the elec smoke fumes drill on civil airliners?
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 08:44
  #2643 (permalink)  
 
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Is depressurisation part of the elec smoke fumes drill on civil airliners?
At Altitude? No- Part of Main Deck Fire drills on some freighters, but AFAIK not on any Pax aircraft.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 08:44
  #2644 (permalink)  
 
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<quote> ACARS (RR engines): packet(s) were received up to 4 hours after last contact. These packets come every 30 minutes. If the airplane had SATCOM AND ACARS via SATCOM was enabled (I doubt) these packets could be sent from elsewhere. A SATCOM antenna does not mean data can go via SATCOM! If the airplane had VHF only the associated ground station may be known, but it may take days to identify it or the data has been overwritten already.</quote>

Hi all
I am not a pilot but a radio amateur and wish to make a couple of points which may be useful.

1. VHF range is proportional to how high you are (effectively line of sight) . So if you are lowered in altitude for any reason your vhf range is diminished.

2. If the ACARS (RR engines) packets were received via VHF and the plane was at a lowered altitude then the plane would be over land or relatively close to land because there would be few VHF ACARS receiving stations in the middle of the ocean.

3. Assuming that ACRS (RR Engines) packets were received at several different stations it should be possible to estimate the general direction and speed of the airplane. The times at which signal contact is lost with a particular ACARS ground station can also be used to estimate the height of the aircraft. If for any reason the plane was flown very low the range to a particular ground station would be extremely diminished and also affected by anything in the line of sight between plane and ground station eg very high mountains.

4. ACARS packets are not just received by ground stations but also by enthusiasts with scanners and freely available decoding software. There is a remote (very) chance that a radio amateur might have received and decoded some ACARS packets. I think this extremely unlikely as the packets sent appear to be different from the regular ACARS packets and may be encoded differently.

Hopefully some of the above is of some use.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 08:45
  #2645 (permalink)  
 
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Quite a lot of theories on the Oxy bottle creating havoc in the MEC bay.
I havent seen pictures yet, so here:



Full size picture here:
http://i765.photobucket.com/albums/x.../OxyBottle.jpg

Note that the bottle "points" forward.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 08:48
  #2646 (permalink)  
 
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VR

Is depressurisation part of the elec smoke fumes drill on civil airliners?
Don't know of any where you would deliberately depressurise at high level ( for all the previously discussed reasons )

There are some types where after descending to a sensible level you possibly would depressurise in order to carry out items of the smoke removal checklist (e.g I seem to recall it was a possibility on the 744 but only at lower altitudes).

Deliberate depressurisation at high level is certainly not part of the drills on the 777.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 08:48
  #2647 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by cowhorse View Post
Does anyone know if/when there will be a news conference today?
Possibly in 15 minutes 5pm local time (GMT+8), live video below shows preparations at the news conference right now....not in english so I have no idea what she is saying....

Live TV | Astro Awani
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 08:48
  #2648 (permalink)  
 
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While the speculation about the new (unconfirmed?) information is ongoing, i like to coment on MC. Kay's oil rig observation.
Even professionals will have a hard time to judge distance further away than 2 miles at night, especially when there is no way to compare the observed object against a known object. Mc Kay testifies, that the object was either moving toward his position or away from it, but at the end he observed something not showing lateral movement. He testifies that the object was burning, but can you see flames at a distance greater than 2 miles or do you see some kind of light source? Due to the continuos noise on an oil rig he probably couldn't hear any noise asociated with his observation. And he talks about 50 to 70 km distance.

We can assume that he saw something what got his attention, and his testimony is biased by the knowledge, that MH370 was missing.
Was he observing the afterburner of a fighter aircraft? His description would fit, the plume can be observed during night for some distance, and a tight turn does not produce much lateral movement some distance away. Deselect burner, and the fire is gone. The noise would be blanked by the noise of the oil rig.
There is testimony of loud frightening noise observed landbased and reported (cant find the reference in all the posts). But the observers could not see an aircraft despite looking for it. Modern engines like on the T7 are very quiet, to be frightening the jet has to pass in very close vicinity and then should be observable.

My take on both observations: There had been fighters in the air searching for MH370. Maybe from Malaysia, maybe from Vietnam, maybe from both.

Last edited by RetiredF4; 13th Mar 2014 at 09:06.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 08:50
  #2649 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by pberrett View Post
<quote> ACARS (RR engines): packet(s) were received up to 4 hours after last contact. These packets come every 30 minutes
yes.... .
the plane may have flown for a total of five hours based automatic data sent by the on-board monitoring system to engine manufacturer Rolls-Royce.
also
A total flight time of five hours means the Boeing 777 could have travelled about 2200 nautical miles after leaving Kuala Lumpur and potentially have reached the Indian Ocean, the border of Pakistan or even the Arabian Sea, the Wall Street Journal said..
I think now we are starting to get a better idea where the aircraft may be....

Malaysia Airlines plane may have flown for hours after dropping off radar
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 08:50
  #2650 (permalink)  
 
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Depressurisation causing electrics to fail

My theory is from the knowledge from what I know flying the 737.

If the cabin depressurises the cooling fans warning lights in the electric bay will go on ,as the thin air struggles to keep the temperatures cool in the electronics bay. This could result to systems shutting down or CBs popping due to over heating. Could result in the transponder failing

Just an idea anyone also think the same or disagree be good see
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 08:51
  #2651 (permalink)  
 
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Saturn, wasn't aware there was a radar.

Ref depress, it's on our jet, the idea is you create as much flow from the packs though the outflow to suck out the nasties. As well as the option of opening up various bits n bobs which again assists with smoke extraction. Obviously his is less of an option for civil liners.

Last edited by VinRouge; 13th Mar 2014 at 18:39.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 08:57
  #2652 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by hamster3null View Post

Either way, the plane may have been in the air longer than 5 hours. In the first case, 5 hour mark is the last moment MH370 was in range of a VHF network. Time wise, this would be consistent with passing India on the westbound heading.

I found this VHF coverage map, not sure how current it is:
And the VHF coverage would be even less the further below 30,000 feet the aircraft was.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 09:01
  #2653 (permalink)  
ekw
 
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Good point. If all comms are out then get within range and make a telephone call. If there was gradual loss of cabin pressure resulting in a hypoxic event then they would be none the wiser and the aircraft would follow its assigned course. If it was a sudden event that damaged systems then how come altitude and heading changed in a seemingly controlled manner? Acars must have useful information that would answer many of these questions. I only suppose that there is something the Malaysians havent come to terms with yet.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 09:05
  #2654 (permalink)  
 
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RR must receive many thousands of ACARS per day and only irregularities would be flagged up.
Do RR actually know which airframe the engines are fitted to or does it just send the serial number followed by mx message?
If this is the case then assuming the engines were functioning normally then nothing would have appeared abnormal and maybe RR have only just been asked for data?
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 09:07
  #2655 (permalink)  
 
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News Conference on in 30mins

Mark Stone ‏@Stone_SkyNews 9m
Watch the #Malaysia news conference on missing #MH370 live on @skynews & Sky News - Latest News From The US And Around The World in 30 mins.

Live TV | Astro Awani
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 09:08
  #2656 (permalink)  
 
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4. ACARS packets are not just received by ground stations but also by enthusiasts with scanners and freely available decoding software. There is a remote (very) chance that a radio amateur might have received and decoded some ACARS packets. I think this extremely unlikely as the packets sent appear to be different from the regular ACARS packets and may be encoded differently.
Actually, the data may indeed be logged on some enthusiast's computer. I've logged ACARS in the past, was amazed what was sent in the clear to and from my own planes, crew lists with passport and employee numbers, APU oil needs servicing and, yes automatic engine readings with lat longs and altitudes. These messages were formatted but not encoded, no harder to read than NOTAMS or WX.

Also, HFDL is easily logged thousands of miles away, there is a small user group on Yahoo. I've logged it with free software, the traffic was similar to ACARS.

Hobbyist ADS-B receivers are all over Asia, they form the basis for the networks that feed Flightradar24.com - Live flight tracker! and RadarBox24.com - Airspace Live . The initial transponder loss was tracked by FR24 as noted here.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 09:09
  #2657 (permalink)  
 
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One would have thought rr would have process in place the minute an aircraft is missing or goes in to lock down all data related to the engines fitted. I can't imagine they would risk losing valuable data that could prove or disprove any engine related faults.
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 09:10
  #2658 (permalink)  
 
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Any connection or inference that can be drawn:

Search of missing Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 carrying 239 persons, it revives memories of the extensive and unsuccessful search carried out by seven countries in the same area for a Learjet carrying Sri Lankan business tycoon Upali Wijewardene and five others in 1983.
Malaysian plane search revives Sri Lankan tycoon?s missing jet mystery | The Sri Lanka Reporter
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 09:11
  #2659 (permalink)  
 
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Vinrouge,

Air Operations

Aerial of the runways.
http://map.vbgood.com/diego%20garcia/diego_garcia2.jpg
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Old 13th Mar 2014, 09:11
  #2660 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tex37
RR must receive many thousands of ACARS per day and only irregularities would be flagged up.
Do RR actually know which airframe the engines are fitted to or does it just send the serial number followed by mx message?
If this is the case then assuming the engines were functioning normally then nothing would have appeared abnormal and maybe RR have only just been asked for data?
An airliner going AWOL is about as irregular as it gets. Taking four days to request/gather possibly elementary data would constitute a monumental negligence.

As has been said, there must be MUCH more to this disappearance than is publicly known. Time will tell.
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