Virgin Atlantic
Thread Starter
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: California
Posts: 95
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Virgin Atlantic
Does anyone have a view on whether VS have a viable strategy to keep flying if - as is reliably predicted - cash will dry up within a month?
I understand that SQ are unable by law to increase their 49% holding and that RB's shares are secured to Lloyds TSB to cover the Virgin Mobile venture and other subsidiary company activities.
Cash has already been generated from aircraft refinance and a massive rotable spares refinance through Royal Bank, so where will the cash come from to keep the airline afloat??
I understand that SQ are unable by law to increase their 49% holding and that RB's shares are secured to Lloyds TSB to cover the Virgin Mobile venture and other subsidiary company activities.
Cash has already been generated from aircraft refinance and a massive rotable spares refinance through Royal Bank, so where will the cash come from to keep the airline afloat??
Join Date: Dec 1997
Location: Suffolk UK
Posts: 4,927
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Perhaps you could let us know who your 'reliable' informant was? And what evidence there is for such a sweeping statement? And tell me, what's the point of refinancing an aircraft fleet that's entirely leased, with the exception of 5 Classics which are going anyway (that'll be 9 Classic retired in just a few months - a huge capacity cut).
As far as I'm aware, the amount of VS which is used to secure loans for the mobile system is just £50m, and I would have thought that RB could find alternative security for that if he needed to. I believe SQ's investment in VS required a large proportion of the investment to be held in cash against just this sort of eventuality. Obviously, it can't last for ever, but that is why VS has massively cut its exposure to the vulnerable parts of the US market and is now heavily pushing the South African and Far East routes, which remain profitable.
The game for the next few months for any airline is to not support unprofitable routes, push the ones that work, and gradually resume services as confidence returns. You surely don't think that VS, BA or any other reasonably well-run airline would continue to accept losses that they were experiencing on many of the US routes so that they could just watch the airline fail?
Confidence, and passengers, will return. The airlines, like VS, that have reacted quickly and decisively to limit the effects of the crisis will still be here to profit when the good times come back - and my betting is that by August next year we'll be wondering what much of the fuss was about.
As far as I'm aware, the amount of VS which is used to secure loans for the mobile system is just £50m, and I would have thought that RB could find alternative security for that if he needed to. I believe SQ's investment in VS required a large proportion of the investment to be held in cash against just this sort of eventuality. Obviously, it can't last for ever, but that is why VS has massively cut its exposure to the vulnerable parts of the US market and is now heavily pushing the South African and Far East routes, which remain profitable.
The game for the next few months for any airline is to not support unprofitable routes, push the ones that work, and gradually resume services as confidence returns. You surely don't think that VS, BA or any other reasonably well-run airline would continue to accept losses that they were experiencing on many of the US routes so that they could just watch the airline fail?
Confidence, and passengers, will return. The airlines, like VS, that have reacted quickly and decisively to limit the effects of the crisis will still be here to profit when the good times come back - and my betting is that by August next year we'll be wondering what much of the fuss was about.
Guest
Posts: n/a
Reports coming out of Belgium indicate that Virgin is looking at buying Sabena. Highly unlikely, given their cash position and the existence of VEX (which Branson memorably described as his "worst business investment, ever". I suspect it's simply Belgian Minister Rik Daems tying to dig himself out of the SN accountability hole... 
Scroggs - the telecoms sector - and especially the mobile one - is about as buoyant as the airline industry at present. Atlantic Telecom folded on Friday, and there will be more to come - including some very big names indeed. So no, Branson won't be able to bail himself out of Virgin Mobile in the near future - and all of the other Virgin business are hocked to the hilt as well.
It's cashflow that keeps them afloat, and the drying up of this life-blood will bring the whole house of cards crashing down. Remember Slater Walker in the 1970s? Exactly the same thing there...
The Far Eastern markets have always been hit, and yields are low on the South African markets, especially for pax originating in South Africa. The rapidly sinking rand isn't helping, either. Nigeria is costing money, as is India.
Regrettably, I suspect that by next August we'll be trying to remember who Virgin Atlantic were!
Scroggs - the telecoms sector - and especially the mobile one - is about as buoyant as the airline industry at present. Atlantic Telecom folded on Friday, and there will be more to come - including some very big names indeed. So no, Branson won't be able to bail himself out of Virgin Mobile in the near future - and all of the other Virgin business are hocked to the hilt as well.
It's cashflow that keeps them afloat, and the drying up of this life-blood will bring the whole house of cards crashing down. Remember Slater Walker in the 1970s? Exactly the same thing there...
The Far Eastern markets have always been hit, and yields are low on the South African markets, especially for pax originating in South Africa. The rapidly sinking rand isn't helping, either. Nigeria is costing money, as is India.
Regrettably, I suspect that by next August we'll be trying to remember who Virgin Atlantic were!
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Ballymun
Posts: 108
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Lots of rather expert armchair economists on this thread!!
If any one man can pull Virgin through, Branson can, have you read his Autobiography, he's been through many closer shaves thn this!
The Prisoner - Pilots falling asleep in curries in LA, sounds like my perfect nightstop!
If any one man can pull Virgin through, Branson can, have you read his Autobiography, he's been through many closer shaves thn this!
The Prisoner - Pilots falling asleep in curries in LA, sounds like my perfect nightstop!
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: UK
Posts: 49
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Virgin and bmi will merge. bmi is struggling to find pax for it's 330's - major white elephant- but has the jewel in the crown, a domestic and European feed to long haul. VS pull out of LGW and concentrate on LHR; bmi pull off the MAN routes, give the 330's to VS and you have one mega company capable of taking on BA at LHR. get real chaps, VS wont go down without a fight, they are far too good.
Join Date: Dec 1997
Location: Suffolk UK
Posts: 4,927
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
With the Guv's usual thoroughness, he spends most of his day skimming news websites and posting whatever bad news he can find on this site, seemingly with the express intent of depressing the employees of the various airlines he puts down. His bad taste reached its peak with his somewhat prurient posting about the suicides of two Ansett pilots.
Guv, your understanding of the airline business seems to be vicarious and superficial, gleaned entirely from the reports of other non-expert commentators. While rubbishing everyone else's efforts you continue (after 2 years or more) to claim to be well on the way to starting an airline of your own with some old Tristars from Delta's scrapheap. Have you any idea what all this badmouthing is doing to your credibility, in the unlikely event that you are genuine? Who the hell would work for you? Don't answer now; you can tell me face to face at the Xmas Gatbash, where I will be pleased to look over your plans and give them the same treatment you give everyone else's.
Now, Virgin is going through some pain, like all other trans-atlantic airlines. Unlike many, it is in the process of dramatically changing the shape of its business to take account of the current realities, and to place itself well for the upturn that will inevitably come. As a result, nearly 40% of its aircrew are to lose their jobs - for the moment. No doubt Guv is eagerly awaiting the day when he can 'report' the suicides of some of our people, and the death of our airline. Well, it ain't gonna happen, son. Sit on it and swivel, Guv. I wouldn't **** on you if you were on fire
.
Prisoner - if your criteria for who you fly with is based on gossip both in and out of the newspapers, you are a sad individual. If you hadn't noticed, Virgin stands for an active, light-hearted, and fun approach to life. God forbid that a pilot should go for a curry (did you see him fall asleep?), or that there should be sex between consenting crewmembers :o . When you find an airline where no such events happen, let the rest of us know. It's probably run by the Vatican!
Guv, your understanding of the airline business seems to be vicarious and superficial, gleaned entirely from the reports of other non-expert commentators. While rubbishing everyone else's efforts you continue (after 2 years or more) to claim to be well on the way to starting an airline of your own with some old Tristars from Delta's scrapheap. Have you any idea what all this badmouthing is doing to your credibility, in the unlikely event that you are genuine? Who the hell would work for you? Don't answer now; you can tell me face to face at the Xmas Gatbash, where I will be pleased to look over your plans and give them the same treatment you give everyone else's.
Now, Virgin is going through some pain, like all other trans-atlantic airlines. Unlike many, it is in the process of dramatically changing the shape of its business to take account of the current realities, and to place itself well for the upturn that will inevitably come. As a result, nearly 40% of its aircrew are to lose their jobs - for the moment. No doubt Guv is eagerly awaiting the day when he can 'report' the suicides of some of our people, and the death of our airline. Well, it ain't gonna happen, son. Sit on it and swivel, Guv. I wouldn't **** on you if you were on fire
.Prisoner - if your criteria for who you fly with is based on gossip both in and out of the newspapers, you are a sad individual. If you hadn't noticed, Virgin stands for an active, light-hearted, and fun approach to life. God forbid that a pilot should go for a curry (did you see him fall asleep?), or that there should be sex between consenting crewmembers :o . When you find an airline where no such events happen, let the rest of us know. It's probably run by the Vatican!
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: England
Posts: 96
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The scary thing is Virgin has said very little since Sept 11th. They have laid off a lot of staff. Before September 11th we knew the North American market was the one keeping Virgin alive, from a recent pond crossing I can assure you that loads are as low as I have ever seen them, which can't be good news. Also think Virgin had most of its fleet grounded for a couple days while the US closed its airspace. That must have been tough on them!
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: London
Posts: 5
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I have to agree with Scroggs, Guvnor get a life! In a time, like we have never seen before, where so many are facing the prospect of losing their jobs, stop all this doom and gloom, It seems to me like u are a frustrated aviator, that is, someone who has never made it! Now **** off and get a life u sad individual.Maybe even attempt ur PPL.
Prisoner, you to, stop living at home with mummy, and join The Guvnor, otherwise try and find ur self a girlfriend.
[ 07 October 2001: Message edited by: cocorico ][/LIST]
[ 07 October 2001: Message edited by: cocorico ]
Prisoner, you to, stop living at home with mummy, and join The Guvnor, otherwise try and find ur self a girlfriend.
[ 07 October 2001: Message edited by: cocorico ][/LIST]
[ 07 October 2001: Message edited by: cocorico ]
Guest
Posts: n/a
Silver Tongued Cavalier - try reading the unauthorised biography by Tom Bowers - considerably more enlightening!
Scroggs - you're sounding rather bitter, me old mate!
Perhaps you couldn't give a monkeys about your colleagues in thius business, but I do. The reason that I posted the article about the suicide of the Ansett captains was to highlight the high levels of stress that people are going through at present - and to push forward the case for a support mechanism that I had previously mooted on an earlier, similar, thread.
Exactly how many startups have you been involved with? I suspect none from your comments. Try asking some of those on here that have been involved - including IFR and Groundhog - how long it takes. Four years in the case of Groundhog's last venture. And yes, especially in the current market, those ex DL L15s would have been absolutely perfect - ultra-low capital cost, falling fuel prices etc ... one can afford to park them (total cost: $600 per month) unlike a certain UK airline of your ken that is now bitterly regretting its investment in bright shiny new A340s and 744s that the lessors don't want back - and which cost them well over $1m per month whether or not they fly! The simple reason that the Classics were parked was that VS could afford to do it - but it couldn't afford early termination of the leases on its more modern aircraft, which is what it wanted to do.
I shall await your prediction as to when this upturn is due to arrive with great interest!
Scroggs - you're sounding rather bitter, me old mate!
Perhaps you couldn't give a monkeys about your colleagues in thius business, but I do. The reason that I posted the article about the suicide of the Ansett captains was to highlight the high levels of stress that people are going through at present - and to push forward the case for a support mechanism that I had previously mooted on an earlier, similar, thread.
Exactly how many startups have you been involved with? I suspect none from your comments. Try asking some of those on here that have been involved - including IFR and Groundhog - how long it takes. Four years in the case of Groundhog's last venture. And yes, especially in the current market, those ex DL L15s would have been absolutely perfect - ultra-low capital cost, falling fuel prices etc ... one can afford to park them (total cost: $600 per month) unlike a certain UK airline of your ken that is now bitterly regretting its investment in bright shiny new A340s and 744s that the lessors don't want back - and which cost them well over $1m per month whether or not they fly! The simple reason that the Classics were parked was that VS could afford to do it - but it couldn't afford early termination of the leases on its more modern aircraft, which is what it wanted to do.
I shall await your prediction as to when this upturn is due to arrive with great interest!
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: [edited by PPRuNe Admin]
Posts: 776
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I would like to take this opportunity to remind you of a few things.
Virgin Atlantic people (and there lawyers) DO read this site (let me assure you of that one).
Sir Richard Branson does not, and will not tolerate anyone (regardless of size) saying untruths (indeed lies) about any of his businesses.
Anyone doing so will be pursued by his legal team (and they're vast).
Anyone thinking of posting scandelous rumours about Sir Richard, or Virgin Atlantic make sure your source is as solid as a rock. PPRuNe will happily pass over your information upon leagl request.
Happy days.
Virgin Atlantic people (and there lawyers) DO read this site (let me assure you of that one).
Sir Richard Branson does not, and will not tolerate anyone (regardless of size) saying untruths (indeed lies) about any of his businesses.
Anyone doing so will be pursued by his legal team (and they're vast).
Anyone thinking of posting scandelous rumours about Sir Richard, or Virgin Atlantic make sure your source is as solid as a rock. PPRuNe will happily pass over your information upon leagl request.
Happy days.
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: UK
Posts: 2
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Why do some people constantly try and undermine companies for their own amusement.
Guvnor you seem to have become the airline industries prophet of doom. Your posts some of which are informative can also undermine companies and start rumours that are far from the truth.
Where did you get some of your info on Virgin, yes we do have problems, but doesn't every airline at the moment.
As I believe the redundancies made by Virgin are for the good of the airline to survive, in the current climate. Would some of you like to see Virgin go under and for many good people to lose their income or should we all start sticking together and working to get through this.
Every company has problems with management and some of Virgins problems may have come from within, but we can all learn from our mistakes and hopefully Virgin can come through this and be a leaner hopefully more efficient airline.
I like a lot of others within Virgin do not know how long the company may go on for, it could be Years or Months. I like to think it will be the former.
I know this is a rumour network, but lets get sensible about this, 7000 employees depend on Virgin for their monthly income.
Before you all start on me yes this is my first post and I feel very strongly about my company as some of you might about your own.
In times like these VS,BA,BD and all the other UK airlines should be getting together and helping each other survive or none of us may have jobs next year.
Guvnor you seem to have become the airline industries prophet of doom. Your posts some of which are informative can also undermine companies and start rumours that are far from the truth.
Where did you get some of your info on Virgin, yes we do have problems, but doesn't every airline at the moment.
As I believe the redundancies made by Virgin are for the good of the airline to survive, in the current climate. Would some of you like to see Virgin go under and for many good people to lose their income or should we all start sticking together and working to get through this.
Every company has problems with management and some of Virgins problems may have come from within, but we can all learn from our mistakes and hopefully Virgin can come through this and be a leaner hopefully more efficient airline.
I like a lot of others within Virgin do not know how long the company may go on for, it could be Years or Months. I like to think it will be the former.
I know this is a rumour network, but lets get sensible about this, 7000 employees depend on Virgin for their monthly income.
Before you all start on me yes this is my first post and I feel very strongly about my company as some of you might about your own.
In times like these VS,BA,BD and all the other UK airlines should be getting together and helping each other survive or none of us may have jobs next year.
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: UK
Posts: 22
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
what does this button do...i take it u didnt read the very enlightening series of articles in the daily mail re mr branson and what is he gonna do sue everyone who says something he doesnt like..yeah right.The general opinion seems to be that most of his businesses are kept afloat by the cash generated from the north atlantic routes....if these go tits up whers the cash gonna come from?
ps richard if u read this and its not correct please accept my humblest apologies..NOT
ps richard if u read this and its not correct please accept my humblest apologies..NOT
Guest
Posts: n/a
Those who have been around a bit might well recall a certain Robert Maxwell who also had the habit of slapping lawsuits on everyone that said anything that displeased him (such as "Oi! You're not supposed to nick the pension fund!"). He wasn't so much concerned about winning the cases but rather keeping the stories sub judice and I suspect that this may well be the case here.
Having been a very minor cog in the British Atlantic wheel I can affirm from first hand experience that he does, indeed, royally screw people when given the opportunity - his treatment of Randolph Fields was disgraceful.
If they want to get hold of me, my details are in my profile!
Having been a very minor cog in the British Atlantic wheel I can affirm from first hand experience that he does, indeed, royally screw people when given the opportunity - his treatment of Randolph Fields was disgraceful.
If they want to get hold of me, my details are in my profile!
Guvbore, would you please *@£ off. I am sure most of us are sick and tired of your postings. Please correct me, but I am sure you posted the downing of a Cathay 747 yesterday (the post has been erased). You are a has-been that trawls the internet and then posts other peoples opinions. There are thousands of people whose lives have turned to **** recently and you just sit in front of your computer pontificating. Scroggs is worth a million of you, he has done more in aviation than you have had wet dreams about.
P.S. If Guvnors parents are reading this, please can you rescind his internet rights
P.S. If Guvnors parents are reading this, please can you rescind his internet rights
