Ash clouds threaten air traffic
Join Date: Apr 2002
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Health and Safety gone mad
I notice that one of the contaminated plumes has very nearly made a westward track towards Newfoundland, after passing over Norway, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands and Southern England.
When it reaches the State of Maine or Nova Scotia, is anybody going to believe that no one can fly because of Volcanic Ash.
Get real, the Moody 747 flew through the erupting plume of the erupting volcano. The ppm density was at its highest and most destructive.
By the time it's dissipated and the ppm is very low, what is the problem.
Maybe its the Lawyers and engine manufacturers covering themselves.
For years now aircraft have been landing in desert regions with low RVR's caused by sand not moisture.
Aircraft also have in the past suffered no problems with the likes of Mt St Helens, Pinatubo, the Alaskan Peninsular and the many Volcanos in the Sea of Japan.
Start looking at what ppm density starts to cause the problems and do it fast.
It's no good sending up a Dornier, it has to be carried out on an Engine test rig by the manufacturers.
The sooner the better please, so that I can get off the ground and back home with my wife and dogs.
Jetfresh
When it reaches the State of Maine or Nova Scotia, is anybody going to believe that no one can fly because of Volcanic Ash.
Get real, the Moody 747 flew through the erupting plume of the erupting volcano. The ppm density was at its highest and most destructive.
By the time it's dissipated and the ppm is very low, what is the problem.
Maybe its the Lawyers and engine manufacturers covering themselves.
For years now aircraft have been landing in desert regions with low RVR's caused by sand not moisture.
Aircraft also have in the past suffered no problems with the likes of Mt St Helens, Pinatubo, the Alaskan Peninsular and the many Volcanos in the Sea of Japan.
Start looking at what ppm density starts to cause the problems and do it fast.
It's no good sending up a Dornier, it has to be carried out on an Engine test rig by the manufacturers.
The sooner the better please, so that I can get off the ground and back home with my wife and dogs.
Jetfresh
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Hi,
Engines certification:
http://www.easa.europa.eu/ws_prod/g/...ndment%202.pdf
Seem's they forget the volcanic ashes
Engines certification:
http://www.easa.europa.eu/ws_prod/g/...ndment%202.pdf
Seem's they forget the volcanic ashes
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You don't fly into this ash no matter what.
Yes its costing millions per day, so what.
When they say its safe to fly we take to the skies again.
But we don't unless they say its safe and no risk at all.
Airline management and loss revenues don't have any say so in this problem.
Not marketing selling tooth brushes or airline seats anymore.
Common sense applies here.
Sorry the marketing ones may lose some bonus here for loss of revenue.
Hope they finally figure out that safety is more important than there wallet.
Yes its costing millions per day, so what.
When they say its safe to fly we take to the skies again.
But we don't unless they say its safe and no risk at all.
Airline management and loss revenues don't have any say so in this problem.
Not marketing selling tooth brushes or airline seats anymore.
Common sense applies here.
Sorry the marketing ones may lose some bonus here for loss of revenue.
Hope they finally figure out that safety is more important than there wallet.
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Here is a interesting link to earthquake activity leading up to the eruption. Sorry if it has been posted before
DataMarket | Jarðskjálftar og eldgos í Eyjafjallajökli 2010
DataMarket | Jarðskjálftar og eldgos í Eyjafjallajökli 2010
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Hi,
Source:
Google Traduire
From the french Govt:
Google Bericht
So the french president must be on the road .. at this hour .. but it's no news of a departure by road or train from France of Sarkozy
If he go by plane ........ what we can conclude ?
The airline has paralysis in much of Europe is not just commercial flights. De nombreuses personnalités ont également dû modifier leurs projets. Many celebrities have also had to change their plans. Ainsi, plusieurs chefs d'Etats ne pourront sans doute pas assister aux obsèques du président polonais Lech Kaczynski , dimanche 18 avril à Cracovie, l'espace aérien du pays étant fermé. Thus, several heads of states could probably not attend the funeral of Polish President Lech Kaczynski , Sunday, April 18 in Krakow, the country's airspace is closed. Samedi matin, l'Elysée annonçait cependant le maintien du déplacement de Nicolas Sarkozy . Saturday morning, the Elysee Palace announced yet maintaining the displacement of Nicolas Sarkozy . Le premier ministre estonien, Andrus Ansip , le président du Parlement européen, Jerzy Buzek , ou le président slovaque, Ivan Gasparovic , devaient gagner la cité historique en automobile, alors que le président tchèque, Vaclav Klaus , comptait s'y rendre en train. The Estonian Prime Minister Andrus Ansip , President of the European Parliament, Jerzy Buzek , or the Slovak President, Ivan Gasparovic , had to win this historic city by car, while the Czech president, Vaclav Klaus , had to reach by train.
Google Traduire
From the french Govt:
Google Bericht
So the french president must be on the road .. at this hour .. but it's no news of a departure by road or train from France of Sarkozy
If he go by plane ........ what we can conclude ?
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"Roy
Poland is curently in the process of burying 96 people that has been flown by the pilot who has not shown signs of 'cowardice' and landed where/when it has been deemed unsafe (unsuitable wx)."
Well, I wouldn't really call it "landed"...
Poland is curently in the process of burying 96 people that has been flown by the pilot who has not shown signs of 'cowardice' and landed where/when it has been deemed unsafe (unsuitable wx)."
Well, I wouldn't really call it "landed"...
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peck:
A gold star for peck's first post. The problem is that we don't know the quantitative ash density that engines can absorb, and precious little about the ash density now in the air. If we had these numbers, then a fair risk assessment could be made.
After all, bird ingestion tests are well defined (numbers and size) for engine certification, as are water ingestion etc. tests. But we have empirical evidence that engines are no match for a couple of Canadian geese.
Give us some numbers for a design standard, and someone will certify an ash-proof engine.
Does anyone heard of measurements of the Volcanic cloud in terms of milligrams per cubic meter (Dispersed ash in air)?.
Other possibility is to monitor precipitated particles al ground level. May be some Air Quality agency is looking at this ?
These are important figures, because at the end the mass load in the turbine is a key factor for possible negative effects.
Other possibility is to monitor precipitated particles al ground level. May be some Air Quality agency is looking at this ?
These are important figures, because at the end the mass load in the turbine is a key factor for possible negative effects.
After all, bird ingestion tests are well defined (numbers and size) for engine certification, as are water ingestion etc. tests. But we have empirical evidence that engines are no match for a couple of Canadian geese.
Give us some numbers for a design standard, and someone will certify an ash-proof engine.
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This volcano last erupted in 1821 and it spewed ash for TWO years. So if you are stuck somewhere and waiting expectantly for a resumption of flights in the not too distant future, think again. If the ash density is such that it is unsafe to fly today, it can only become less safe as the ash density continues to build as more and more debris is thrown into the skies over Europe and beyond.
Happy landings and stay safe.
Happy landings and stay safe.
Last edited by rubik101; 18th Apr 2010 at 03:39.
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Again safety is put after revenue!!!
I thought safety was the number one priority for all airlines? I am mistaken - they show their true colours and we are resorting to making money. Do you want to repeat Speedbird 9 from a few years ago then go right ahead. I and my crew will not be accepting any flight through Volcanic Ash!!!
I thought safety was the number one priority for all airlines? I am mistaken - they show their true colours and we are resorting to making money. Do you want to repeat Speedbird 9 from a few years ago then go right ahead. I and my crew will not be accepting any flight through Volcanic Ash!!!
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Flying through the ash
These test flies are just the beginning of the things that may be necessary to do. Even when they establish certain threshold of ash concentration, below which it is "not dangerous" to fly, that is not enough, nor does it mean very much. Below critical ash density can also cause damage over time. Two most important parameters are probably accumulation of the dust inside engines and other critical surfaces, and accumulation of the microscopic dust damage - and not simply local dust density. And to be able to predict them in advance, during the trajectory planning stage, it will be necessary to have some very sophisticated monitoring system. If this does not stop very soon, dust concentrations will become almost unpredictable, possibly abruptly changing depending on the place, time, altitude, moisture, history of the winds at various levels and so on. Detailed remote measurement and on board sensors may be the only way. I am not sure if remote monitoring system with necessary high resolution for measuring local densities at various levels even exists now. And even if it does, it will be cat and mouse game. Finding the current route with the smallest ratio of accumulated dust / cost of the trajectory. And constantly hoping that accumulated damage to the system has not become greater then its ability to withstand some unexpected stress that may be required. It's not going to be easy. And it is certainly going to be more expensive. So lets hope that it will stop very soon.
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Rubik, you have hit the nail on the head.
My reference:
Met Office: Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres
The latest bullitin from the Volcanic Ask Advisory Centre in London shows the observed cloud from Surface to FL200 to stretch from the eastern Atlantic to the Urals and from the tip of Scandanavia to the south of central Europe. If Civil aviation is not to stay grounded for the years that this volcano may continue to spew out its ash and particles, a "Command Judgement" will have to be made soon to get airborne again.
The best estimate of the plume height is FL280. Clearly the plume and its hazards must be avoided.
However, the density of the ash now spread over such a vast area is diminishing all the time. Moreover, there is now plenty of evidence that the ash is reaching the surface. However, the remarks section of the warning states: "ASH CONCENTRATIONS WITHIN INDICATED AREAS ARE UNKNOWN. NO SIGNIFICANT RISK ABOVE FL350".
We cannot stay grounded forever while ash is airborne. We need a much better risk analysis tool and than simply an ash cloud diagram containing a million square mile area which has to be avoided by all aircraft.
My reference:
Met Office: Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres
The latest bullitin from the Volcanic Ask Advisory Centre in London shows the observed cloud from Surface to FL200 to stretch from the eastern Atlantic to the Urals and from the tip of Scandanavia to the south of central Europe. If Civil aviation is not to stay grounded for the years that this volcano may continue to spew out its ash and particles, a "Command Judgement" will have to be made soon to get airborne again.
The best estimate of the plume height is FL280. Clearly the plume and its hazards must be avoided.
However, the density of the ash now spread over such a vast area is diminishing all the time. Moreover, there is now plenty of evidence that the ash is reaching the surface. However, the remarks section of the warning states: "ASH CONCENTRATIONS WITHIN INDICATED AREAS ARE UNKNOWN. NO SIGNIFICANT RISK ABOVE FL350".
We cannot stay grounded forever while ash is airborne. We need a much better risk analysis tool and than simply an ash cloud diagram containing a million square mile area which has to be avoided by all aircraft.
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This autocratic shutting down of all airspace is way too much big brother, all started by MR Brown. It should be up to the operator, and ultimately the passenger to decide if the risks are worth taking. All dramatic references to a BA flight, or other unfortunate earlier flights which flew straight into the centre of an unchartered dense volcanic plume, do not apply today, We are all well aware of the risk of doing that, which is why we have extra vigilance on volcanic activity. But over the whole of Europe what is the particle density, its mostly parts per billion. The more spread out it gets the thinner it becomes, therefore less risk is reasonable to surmise. Are the Asians going to be shutting down their airspace when this blows far enough east? Over time this may cause damage and maintenance issues, so just reduce the TBO,- if you see a sign on Blackpool beach saying caution polluted waters, it doesn’t stop you from swimming if you want to- the risk is yours, if you prefer not to then don’t, hundreds of thousands of passengers are stranded around the globe what would they say-This eruption could last weeks, months, even years- how long will airspace be shutdown, with thousands of people sleeping rough at airports, how long before we start seeing flight crew layoffs, so airlines can reduce costs, something will have to give somewhere.
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As a result of aviation stoppage I am no longer a paid worker. However I wont fall victim to fear and greed by trying to justify my plane into the air until proper investigative work has been done given the experience of the likes of the Finnish air force and unknown long/ medium term effects. Theoretically there is so much that can go wrong its not funny and certainly not worth letting the health of the industry dictate , thats akin to saying its too expensive to replace asbestos in terms of human health. KLMs few orbits at altitude prove nothing since they are unable to verify if they are flying through anything dangerous and besides what is the difference between 30 minutes of exposure and 4 hours? The notion that in Ireland and the UK the density in PPM is decreasing would only be true if the volcano had stopped spewing ash into the atmosphere which it has not. As for Brown being responsible , get a grip the first closure was not in the UK.
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They are flying till the first accident. Russians always learn on their own mistakes.
E.g., here is a couple of excerpts from the latest Kamchatka advisory:
KLYUCHEVSKOY VOLCANO; 56° 03'N, 160° 39'E; Elevation 4,750 m
AVIATION COLOR CODE IS ORANGE
Explosive-effusive eruption of the volcano continues. Ash explosions > 7.0 km (>23,000 ft)ASL could occur at any time. The activity of the volcano could affect international and low-flying aircraft.
SHEVELUCH VOLCANO: 56°38'N, 161°19'E; Elevation 3,283 m, the dome elevation ~2,500 m
AVIATION COLOR CODE IS ORANGE
Explosive-extrusive eruption of the volcano continues. Ash explosions > 10 km (>32,800 ft) ASL could occur at any time. The activity of the volcano could affect international and low-flying aircraft.
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Cheers, looks a different kettle of fish though in terms of output ? Your reports above suggest that more serious erruptions "might" occur but have not as of yet.
Activity at Shiveluch Volcano : Natural Hazards
Activity at Shiveluch Volcano : Natural Hazards
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It looks flights will be partly restrated by Monday afternoon.
Those who believe this is not safe, please handle your resignations by Monday morning to your employer. Our industry don't need cowards who want to have all bells and whistles including high salary but are not prepared to do their work as expected.
Those who believe this is not safe, please handle your resignations by Monday morning to your employer. Our industry don't need cowards who want to have all bells and whistles including high salary but are not prepared to do their work as expected.
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Those who believe this is not safe, please handle your resignations by Monday morning to your employer. Our industry don't need cowards who want to have all bells and whistles including high salary but are not prepared to do their work as expected.