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Ash clouds threaten air traffic

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Old 17th Apr 2010, 22:28
  #761 (permalink)  
 
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Red moon right now over London

If you are in London, look outside the window right now: the moon is red
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Old 17th Apr 2010, 22:33
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Originally Posted by Stoic
I think you will find that the ash clouds that have done the damage in the past to eg. BA009 and the NASA aeroplane were in visible ash cloud, not invisible ash cloud. Emperor and new clothes comes to mind.
Incorrect. The cloud the NASA plane flew through was entirely unnoticeable, 200 miles North of the predicted ash cloud, and only picked up because they were a atmospheric research plane that had sensitive equipment onboard. They also only flew through the ash for 5 or 10 minutes. Had this been a normal flight, nobody would have realised. Nevertheless, the engines were damaged significantly, and their remaining time was estimated to be 100 hours instead of 1000 hours.

Again, this was an encounter with an extremely thin concentration of ash for a very short period. Continued operation in these conditions would have probably resulted in more sever damage.

(Source: NASA volcanic ash incident report)
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Old 17th Apr 2010, 22:34
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Originally Posted by LowFlier
For the same reason that a very light ZFW 738, ....skirting along the upwind edge of the promulgated cloud, avoiding going anywhere near the tall stuff.
Smoke and mirrors, without smoke or mirrors. Just showbiz.
Made for the media. Made to mislead. Made to deceive.
...referring to Mr. Hartmans statements before the flight, i guess you are right on spot

If this shall be accounted as some valid investigation of the risk, then the flight profile should have been defined by some of the met guys knowing the current distribution of the ash cloud as well as the critical locations...and not be defined by some cash flow driven mind set of an airline CEO.

Regards, ihg

P.S.: I couldnt find any alleged NASA 'investigator' statements denying any risk, that Mr. Hartman claimed would exist.....did anyone else?
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Old 17th Apr 2010, 22:41
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Red moon right now over London

Yes, but that post is 30mins prior to Moonset. 7.5 deg above horizon.

'Normal' pollution would make the Moon red at that altitude as you are looking NW across London and most of the UK pollution.

The question still stands - does the lower level ash fall out after dark, allowing flying at night to a level below the 'ashbase'?
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Old 17th Apr 2010, 22:48
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Looked red to me at around 9pm. I'm in rural central england.
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Old 17th Apr 2010, 22:49
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Look at this! This Russian fleet is flying like nothing has happened. Do they have more info on concentration and the effects on a/c?
Might check other sites, I bet they are operating as usually. Difference - they have military ATC, not civilians.
They are flying till the first accident. Russians always learn on their own mistakes.

They are knowingly and intentionally fly commercial aircrafts into dangerous regions. This is prohibited by every international aviation convention.

AirChina has terminated it's flights from China to Moscow (it is unsafe around Moscow). Emirates and some other Asian airlines also terminated flights to Moscow. Yet Aeroflot (and other Russian carriers) flies these routes as if nothing had happened. This gives you an idea how reckless Russians are.

No world-class airline puts it's passenger safety behind commercial interests. Russian airlines do that and noone seems to notice.
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Old 17th Apr 2010, 22:49
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Went outside this evening at at maybe 1915 and 2115 you could smell the ash at ground level.

Nice day for a BBQ today.......
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Old 17th Apr 2010, 23:00
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Someone asked about the impact of the ash cloud on medevacs from the Afghan theatre, which are apparently going direct to ADW. NY Times reports today:

"The shutdown has also affected American military operations. Military supplies for operations in Afghanistan have been disrupted, and a spokeswoman for the Pentagon said that all medical evacuation flights from Iraq and Afghanistan to Germany, where most injured soldiers are typically treated, were being diverted directly to Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland."
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Old 17th Apr 2010, 23:09
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Niki Lauda: „Man könnte schon lange wieder fliegen“ - Fliegen - FOCUS Online

Niki Lauda says that it's all safe now, so I guess that wraps it up....

(article in German I am afraid, but the crux is that he has spoken to his engine manufacturer and everything is fine. If Austrocontrol don't let him start flying tomorrow he will sue them...)
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Old 17th Apr 2010, 23:16
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Ash and all

Am I he only one to think that we have become so risk averse that we run the risk of shutting down a perfectly viable industry.

When did we last sample the atmosphere before we launched a really hi tech Dornier 228 to sample the upper atmosphere?

Have the legal team finally taken over the business?

rgds Kally
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Old 17th Apr 2010, 23:17
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KLM Test Flight

Saturday KLM has got authorisation of the Inspectie voor Verkeer en Waterstaat to make a test flight in Dutch airspace. If the quality of the atmosphere is satisfactory to fly safe, KLM hopes to get passengers to their destination as soon as possible. This was announced this afternoon by president and CEO of KLM, Peter Hartman at a press conference. The test flight will be carried out at the beginning of the evening. Results are expected later in the evening. Peter Hartman will be on board as an observer.

KLM test flight passes off without problem
KLM Royal Dutch Airlines carried out a test flight this evening between about 19.45 and 21:00 hours CEST in Netherlands airspace using a Boeing 737-800. The flight was carried out to establish whether air quality in the atmosphere meets the requirements for safe flight. No problems were encountered during the flight.
The aircraft was transferred to a hangar on landing where it underwent a thorough inspection. The results have been reported to the Transport and Water Management Inspectorate. The Inspectorate will take the decision on whether flight operations are possible.
KLM President & CEO, Peter Hartman, said: "At first glance there is no reason to suspect that anything is amiss. We observed no irregularities either during the flight or during the initial inspection on the ground. If the results of the technical inspection confirm this impression, we are ready to start by returning seven of our aircraft to Amsterdam from Düsseldorf. We hope to receive permission as soon as possible after that to start up our operation and to transport our passengers to their destinations." KLM Executive Vice-President Operations, Ype de Haan, was also on board the flight with Peter Hartman as an observer.
The aircraft flew to 41,000 feet (altitude of approximately 13 kilometres), which is the maximum altitude for this type of aircraft. KLM expects to receive the final results of the technical inspection tomorrow morning.
Could this be the danger of a National Carrier placing pressure on ATC in the Netherlands? Surely NATS has final say on safety in the UK regardless of what one single test flight provides?
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Old 17th Apr 2010, 23:46
  #772 (permalink)  
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...we have become so risk averse...Have the legal team finally taken over the business?
Yes; these points are undoubtedly part of the problem.

I applaud KLM for doing test flights but do not wish for airspace to be re-opened based solely upon research done by companies who have a direct financial interest in flights being resumed. That said; who is most qualified to judge whether the airspace is navigable in relative safety?

Can any members point to other agencies that are currently undertaking similar experiments?
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Old 17th Apr 2010, 23:57
  #773 (permalink)  
 
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Some videos of the volcano erupting, taken a few days ago.



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Old 18th Apr 2010, 00:31
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Does anybody know what specialised test equipment the KLM 737 was equipped with? I heard rumour that the specialised Dornier 228 that flew over the Eastern UK on Friday was denied permission to enter the Amsterdam FIR.
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Old 18th Apr 2010, 00:53
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Hi,

Does anybody know what specialised test equipment the KLM 737 was equipped with?
Yes ...
The specialised test equipement was the two engines
That's the best equipement for test if the engines will cope with ash ? environnement.
I suppose the Pitot tubes and other standard measuring devices are also parts of the specialised equipment of this KLM boeing .......
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Old 18th Apr 2010, 00:57
  #776 (permalink)  
 
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So what are they going to do? See if engines didn't break and plane hasn't crashed - and based on that declare flying safe? Where is the logic? A single successful flight does not say absolutely anything about general safety of flying in these conditions.

World aviation agencies spend countless hours certifying aircraft for simpler and better understood conditions such as flying above water or in winter etc, and only then give a "go" based on significant test data when appropriate measures are worked out. And here they want to let planes fly into known hazard based on 1 hour of flight time without any additional specialized equipment, knowledge or testing? I know they want to make money - but surely a single all-engine flameout event would cause them more issues and will ground them for even longer. Very very shortsighted.
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Old 18th Apr 2010, 01:01
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Thinks... no thermals to keep it up, condensation of water due to much lower temperature = fallout.
Thermals won't be keeping ash up... they'll be stirring it up maybe in the lower few thousand feet.

1/3 air mass goes up in thermals when they're popping, the other 2/3 comes down half as fast as the 1/3 that goes up - roughly!

If all the air went up in thermals, we'd die
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Old 18th Apr 2010, 01:04
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Hi,

World aviation agencies spend countless hours certifying aircraft for simpler and better understood conditions such as flying above water or in winter etc, and only then give a "go" based on significant test data when appropriate measures are worked out.
So I can ask the question:
Why world aviation agencies not spended hours for conduct tests in a volcanic ashes environement ?
AFAIK it's a well know natural phenomena like ice or snow or rain or birds ...
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Old 18th Apr 2010, 01:25
  #779 (permalink)  
 
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Measurements

Does anyone heard of measurements of the Volcanic cloud in terms of milligrams per cubic meter (Dispersed ash in air)?.
Other possibility is to monitor precipitated particles al ground level. May be some Air Quality agency is looking at this ?

These are important figures, because at the end the mass load in the turbine is a key factor for possible negative effects.

Regards,
Peck
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Old 18th Apr 2010, 01:26
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Who says stunt?

As you can read in the post higher up on this page, KLM's test flight was conducted in cooperation with IVW, the Dutch CAA,

The flight is mentioned on the official web page of IVW as being conducted on request of the European Union. More test flights in other countries are to be conducted.

As far as test equipment is concerned, of course no special equipment is added to the outside of the machine. How about borescoping the engines after the flight to look for the slightest traces of ash EFFECTS. You may have found the pictures of the Finnish Air Force F-18 engines earlier on in this forum. The civilian test flight are there to establish whether any signs of ash can be found after a flight in a thorough technical inspection, not just from the observations of mr. Hartman or mr. De Haan.

The risk is not in this one short flight, but flights such as this one may indicate whether there will be any long term risk in starting up full scale operations.

If you are concerned about money, even if both engines would now need a massive overhaul, that is money well spent to prove that losing 5 to 10 million per day per company by not-flying is justified.
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