Ash clouds threaten air traffic
Skyhook One
The planning around chemical / fallout scenarios was easier.
As the delivery munitions were targeted at ground forces or centres of population / transport hubs.
So the affected area was generally at lower levels to ground level. So the prevailing winds were easier to estimate. As well as lower level turbulent mixing would keep the affected area more localised.
With this bad boy, there will be some lower level fall out, but the fact that the dust is starting from higher levels, would suggest that it is going to cover a large area very quickly, before the grains start to make their way down.
Just my thought why modelling the scenario is so much more difficult.
As the delivery munitions were targeted at ground forces or centres of population / transport hubs.
So the affected area was generally at lower levels to ground level. So the prevailing winds were easier to estimate. As well as lower level turbulent mixing would keep the affected area more localised.
With this bad boy, there will be some lower level fall out, but the fact that the dust is starting from higher levels, would suggest that it is going to cover a large area very quickly, before the grains start to make their way down.
Just my thought why modelling the scenario is so much more difficult.
Join Date: May 2001
Location: England
Posts: 1,904
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Right then, suppose this volcano erupts for another month which is entirely possible and we continue to get ash blown our way. I bet attitudes towards safety will start changing over night!
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: u.k.
Posts: 76
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
As pointed out allready, the jobsworths will have to wind their necks in if this continues for several days,the Eric Moody scenario has nothing to do with what is happening over Europe now.Government research a/c need to be in the skies NOW, sampling the air to give the boffins some hard data to work on.(is 'Humphrey' the RAES Herc that does atmospheric research still flying? Probably been a victim of Gordo cuts,we can allways ask NASA or NOS)
The cash burn rate of grounded airlines is truely awesome,they cannot stay grounded and survive,not to mention other busineses such as tourism etc,jobsworths will simply not be allowed to stay in pious 'better safe than sorry' arse-covering mode.Europe's economy and millions of jobs are at stake.Come on Numptys,pull your collective fingers out NOW.
The cash burn rate of grounded airlines is truely awesome,they cannot stay grounded and survive,not to mention other busineses such as tourism etc,jobsworths will simply not be allowed to stay in pious 'better safe than sorry' arse-covering mode.Europe's economy and millions of jobs are at stake.Come on Numptys,pull your collective fingers out NOW.
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: In the clouds
Age: 69
Posts: 44
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Timothy Claypole,
perhaps you should read Royalist's posts:
"Just in case anyone thinks that this is too much being careful - I was on the BA flight that lost all four engines simultaneously in '82 due to volcanic dust ingestion. Trust me - you can't... "
I think I would still remember at what time of day the event happened had I actually been there....
perhaps you should read Royalist's posts:
"Just in case anyone thinks that this is too much being careful - I was on the BA flight that lost all four engines simultaneously in '82 due to volcanic dust ingestion. Trust me - you can't... "
I think I would still remember at what time of day the event happened had I actually been there....
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Essex
Posts: 216
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
NATS Update:
The cloud of volcanic ash continues to cover much of the UK and the eruption in Iceland continues. Following a review of the latest Met Office information, NATS advises that restrictions preventing flights in English controlled airspace will remain in place until 0100 (UK time) tomorrow, Saturday 17 April, at the earliest.
The cloud of volcanic ash continues to cover much of the UK and the eruption in Iceland continues. Following a review of the latest Met Office information, NATS advises that restrictions preventing flights in English controlled airspace will remain in place until 0100 (UK time) tomorrow, Saturday 17 April, at the earliest.
More bang for your buck
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: land of the clanger
Age: 82
Posts: 3,512
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
is 'Humphrey' the RAES Herc that does atmospheric research still flying?
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Cheshire, UK
Age: 60
Posts: 173
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The Hercules was replaced by a BAe146 in 2004 and is operated by Directflight on behalf of FAAM. There is a statement on their website.
Welcome to FAAM
Welcome to FAAM
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: England
Posts: 145
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Over-reaction
Airclues:
Spot on IMHO!
Tocamak:
Tocamak, you should be aware that Airclues is exactly the sort of person who has related experience and responsibility!
It seems to me that this whole apparent over-reaction may be driven by the box-ticking approach to risk management which has infected public life. The unnecessary financial damage inflicted on a badly struggling industry will force a subsequent reassessment of the action plan. Stand by for plenty of spin.
I have just walked back from t'pub under a clear, starlit sky. There is no way that an aircraft would encounter volcanic ash tonight (25 miles from LHR). This is a massive over-reaction.
On 24/2/89 I operated LHR-ANC. There was a large plume to the north of the airfield (Mt Redoubt), so we flew past the airfield and approached from the south (KLM had previously decided to fly through the plume).
On 24/2/89 I operated LHR-ANC. There was a large plume to the north of the airfield (Mt Redoubt), so we flew past the airfield and approached from the south (KLM had previously decided to fly through the plume).
Tocamak:
I never cease to be amazed by comments from people who probably have no real knowledge about the issue, base their assertions on unrelated experience and have no responsibility at all so can easily spout a load of rubbish. I am sure that NATS, and their equivalents in the countries affected, are not taking this action just for the fun of it or indeed lightly. They would no doubt be interested in your input to help with the formulation of an overall plan!
It seems to me that this whole apparent over-reaction may be driven by the box-ticking approach to risk management which has infected public life. The unnecessary financial damage inflicted on a badly struggling industry will force a subsequent reassessment of the action plan. Stand by for plenty of spin.
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Finland
Posts: 294
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Many media reports report airspace closed to all non-emergency traffic but I've seen no definition of this. Is there one ? Some sound obvious but is there a proper definition (especially as many "emergency" services are down already such as some air ambulances. So does it just leave SAR, defence and overflights calling Mayday? Or can it be bent so "VIPs" can fly to Poland for a funeral, or suchlike (just as the saudis reportedly got permission to fly out of the USA despite a national lockdown after 9/11).
It is quite quiet here in Finland as well.
Rgds
It is quite quiet here in Finland as well.
Rgds
More bang for your buck
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: land of the clanger
Age: 82
Posts: 3,512
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The one aircraft that could do useful research into the situation and it's grounded for a repaint. 
( OK not their fault I know as they couldn't have foreseen the situation, but how ironic.)
( OK not their fault I know as they couldn't have foreseen the situation, but how ironic.)
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: under a small carrot outside strathbungo
Age: 43
Posts: 78
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
BBC just reported that all airspace closed till 1 tomorrow. flybe managed to get the belfast glasgow flight off. Presumably it was flying with the cabin crews tights fitted over the intakes and at a height of 3ft and six inches.
About 12 years ago was was loafing around an RAF maintanance base talking to the egineers. He handed me some turbine blades to keep as a momento. they came off Tornados from the first Gulf War. Flying low level over the desert the engines had ingested sand. From what I gathered the sand had melted in the high temperatures and turned into glass, which finly covered the blades and ruined them.
no idea what the effects off ash ingestion are, but my girlfriend uses a pummice on the dry skin on her feet. I think its made from volcanos(althought its also organic and smells of apricots), so if it works on her feet, it must not agree with aircraft(hope she doesn't read this).
I'm on days off today, back to work on Sunday afternoon. Although thats looking increasingly unlikly.
How long can airlines last with a grounded fleet?
Poor W. Walsh must be pulling his hair out with the increased disruption.
do any airlines sell Volvic water onboard.......its got volcanic goodness in it apparently. So long as you don't mind an abraded tongue!!!
About 12 years ago was was loafing around an RAF maintanance base talking to the egineers. He handed me some turbine blades to keep as a momento. they came off Tornados from the first Gulf War. Flying low level over the desert the engines had ingested sand. From what I gathered the sand had melted in the high temperatures and turned into glass, which finly covered the blades and ruined them.
no idea what the effects off ash ingestion are, but my girlfriend uses a pummice on the dry skin on her feet. I think its made from volcanos(althought its also organic and smells of apricots), so if it works on her feet, it must not agree with aircraft(hope she doesn't read this).
I'm on days off today, back to work on Sunday afternoon. Although thats looking increasingly unlikly.
How long can airlines last with a grounded fleet?
Poor W. Walsh must be pulling his hair out with the increased disruption.
do any airlines sell Volvic water onboard.......its got volcanic goodness in it apparently. So long as you don't mind an abraded tongue!!!
To all those that think this is an over reaction:
When you find out just how much ash can be ingested safely into a jet engine, say in ppm, and then find out what concentration of ash is in the atmosphere above us. Then you can come back here with the figures and tell us all it was an over reaction.
But wait, engine manufacturers don't run tests like that on their engines so we have no idea how much is safe. Maybe we should pack a plane full of you send it up and let you lot be the first to find out.
When you find out just how much ash can be ingested safely into a jet engine, say in ppm, and then find out what concentration of ash is in the atmosphere above us. Then you can come back here with the figures and tell us all it was an over reaction.
But wait, engine manufacturers don't run tests like that on their engines so we have no idea how much is safe. Maybe we should pack a plane full of you send it up and let you lot be the first to find out.
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: west
Posts: 131
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Tocamak, you should be aware that Airclues is exactly the sort of person who has related experience and responsibility!
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Europe
Posts: 651
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Just wait until the whole ash thing is over and most people have actually found out that you don't need to go aborad for 90 percent of the business they do, but rather do it via video conference 
That'll hit the industry...
That'll hit the industry...
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: UK
Posts: 98
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Post 354 above sums up the situation neatly (if inadvertently!).
We appear to be in a Rumsfeld 'Unknown unknowns' situation and all the box-tickers who have no technical understanding of turbine physics/chemistry and no advice to work on do their customary knee-jerk and tick the box marked 'Airspace Closed'.
BUT....
- WHO is doing the physics / chemistry on particles in turbines? Or when are they planning to start?
- WHAT is the ACTUAL range of particle sizes, density per cubic metre, descent rate to ground, ...? (there seem to be a lot of unknowns in this category!)
- IS THERE a reliable method (apparently not current airborne radar) for detecting and assessing a 'dust cloud' that you're about to fly into?
- WHY is there little or no concern about OTHER 'dust clouds' that happen all the time: desert sandstorms, obviously, but there MUST be lots of very local clouds from industry, civil engineering, ..., that SHOULD affect LOW flying aircraft, especially helicopters. Don't remember ever seeing any reports of such damage....
Being in mind the report that last time this particular volcano had a serious eruption, it lasted 3 years, some detailed answers are quite important.
We appear to be in a Rumsfeld 'Unknown unknowns' situation and all the box-tickers who have no technical understanding of turbine physics/chemistry and no advice to work on do their customary knee-jerk and tick the box marked 'Airspace Closed'.
BUT....
- WHO is doing the physics / chemistry on particles in turbines? Or when are they planning to start?
- WHAT is the ACTUAL range of particle sizes, density per cubic metre, descent rate to ground, ...? (there seem to be a lot of unknowns in this category!)
- IS THERE a reliable method (apparently not current airborne radar) for detecting and assessing a 'dust cloud' that you're about to fly into?
- WHY is there little or no concern about OTHER 'dust clouds' that happen all the time: desert sandstorms, obviously, but there MUST be lots of very local clouds from industry, civil engineering, ..., that SHOULD affect LOW flying aircraft, especially helicopters. Don't remember ever seeing any reports of such damage....
Being in mind the report that last time this particular volcano had a serious eruption, it lasted 3 years, some detailed answers are quite important.
More bang for your buck
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: land of the clanger
Age: 82
Posts: 3,512
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I fully agree with you. Some of these people needs to learn the proper facts. Just because you can't see it, doesn't mean its not a problem!
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: London
Posts: 45
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
At first sight it looks like today, Fri 16, there is no air traffic in Eire, UK, Scandinavia, Finland, Latvia Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Germany, Benelux, Holland, France, Spain and Portugal.
Clearly all these countries have overreacted and lack the judgement of most posters here.
Clearly there are many questions to be answered - amongst which might be what are the relative values of pollution between air traffic and volcano ash.
hmmm
Clearly all these countries have overreacted and lack the judgement of most posters here.
Clearly there are many questions to be answered - amongst which might be what are the relative values of pollution between air traffic and volcano ash.
hmmm