Ash clouds threaten air traffic
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afterthoughts
Now that it looks like we all are a little bit more sure of our jobs, some considerations.
Was the closure a conservative decision?: I think it was.
Was it too conservative?
I think is wasn't; we simply did not no enough about this ash-thing which notably never affected Europe this way since the jet era.
Do we need to improve the way we deal with it in the future and make it more dynamic as per the Eurocontrol press release?
Absolutely, even the beancounters may now be convinced of spending money on that.
However:
CEO's flying "test" flights (without measuring equipment, i.e. if they would have damaged the engines we would not know what concentration and type of ash did that, where and when) may have a case at this time, but consider this:
Suppose the METOffice, NATS, or Eurocontrol would have come up with a plan to create a grid of LIDARs in Europe, have a number of specialized aircraft at standby, and of course hire the people to gather, analyse and conclude from the data they produce. Suppose they would have suggested to pay for this trough an extra "volcanic observation charge". Would the airlines have agreed to this two weeks ago?
Hopefully, they will now, so that we can indeed fly around actual ash in stead of our best possible prediction.
Lets get back to what everyone (ANSPs, METOffice and Eurocontrol included) wants, flying tubes of aluminium through a superheated vapor!
00nix
Was the closure a conservative decision?: I think it was.
Was it too conservative?
I think is wasn't; we simply did not no enough about this ash-thing which notably never affected Europe this way since the jet era.
Do we need to improve the way we deal with it in the future and make it more dynamic as per the Eurocontrol press release?
Absolutely, even the beancounters may now be convinced of spending money on that.
However:
CEO's flying "test" flights (without measuring equipment, i.e. if they would have damaged the engines we would not know what concentration and type of ash did that, where and when) may have a case at this time, but consider this:
Suppose the METOffice, NATS, or Eurocontrol would have come up with a plan to create a grid of LIDARs in Europe, have a number of specialized aircraft at standby, and of course hire the people to gather, analyse and conclude from the data they produce. Suppose they would have suggested to pay for this trough an extra "volcanic observation charge". Would the airlines have agreed to this two weeks ago?
Hopefully, they will now, so that we can indeed fly around actual ash in stead of our best possible prediction.
Lets get back to what everyone (ANSPs, METOffice and Eurocontrol included) wants, flying tubes of aluminium through a superheated vapor!
00nix
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Very interesting post, but I have a practical question. Most probably will fly again from tomorrow on and this in the "affected" areas. Where do we find updated and accurate charts/pictures/forecasts about this ash cloud over Europe?
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There are three key principles we are working on:
1. there can be no compromise on safety;
RIGHT. NOTHING IS MORE IMPORTANT. WELL EXCEPT MAYBE PROFITS.
2. the work must be based on scientific evidence;
AND IF THERE IS NONE THAN THERE IS OBVIOUSLY NO PROBLEM.
3. we must facilite co-ordinated European solutions if we are to find a way forwards.
TRANSLATION: YOU NEED TO DO WHAT THE AIRLINES TELL YOU TO DO OR YOU WILL BE LOOKING FOR ANOTHER JOB.
4. AND IF THE JAA OPENS THE AIRSPACE SAYING IT IS SAFE ENOUGH THE AIRLINES ARE NO LONGER CULPABLE FOR ANY ACCIDENTS. THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY DEATHS, ACCIDENTS OR INJURIES. HEY, THEY ARE THE REGULATORS, THE AIRLINES JUST PROVIDE A SERVICE.
1. there can be no compromise on safety;
RIGHT. NOTHING IS MORE IMPORTANT. WELL EXCEPT MAYBE PROFITS.
2. the work must be based on scientific evidence;
AND IF THERE IS NONE THAN THERE IS OBVIOUSLY NO PROBLEM.
3. we must facilite co-ordinated European solutions if we are to find a way forwards.
TRANSLATION: YOU NEED TO DO WHAT THE AIRLINES TELL YOU TO DO OR YOU WILL BE LOOKING FOR ANOTHER JOB.
4. AND IF THE JAA OPENS THE AIRSPACE SAYING IT IS SAFE ENOUGH THE AIRLINES ARE NO LONGER CULPABLE FOR ANY ACCIDENTS. THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY DEATHS, ACCIDENTS OR INJURIES. HEY, THEY ARE THE REGULATORS, THE AIRLINES JUST PROVIDE A SERVICE.
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There are three key principles we are working on:
1. there can be no compromise on safety;
RIGHT. NOTHING IS MORE IMPORTANT. WELL EXCEPT MYBE PROFITS.
2. the work must be based on scientific evidence;
AND IF THERE IS NONE THAN THERE IS OBVIOUSLY NO PROBLEM.
3. we must facilite co-ordinated European solutions if we are to find a way forwards.
TRANSLATION: YOU NEED TO DO WHAT THE AIRLINES TELL YOU TO DO OR YOU WILL BE LOOKING FOR ANOTHER JOB.
4. AND IF THE JAA OPENS THE AIRSPACE SAYING IT IS SAFE ENOUGH THE AIRLINES ARE NO LONGER CULPABLE FOR ANY ACCIDENTS. THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY DEATHS, ACCIDENTS OR INJURIES. HEY, THEY ARE THE REGULATORS, THE AIRLINES JUST PROVIDE A SERVICE.
1. there can be no compromise on safety;
RIGHT. NOTHING IS MORE IMPORTANT. WELL EXCEPT MYBE PROFITS.
2. the work must be based on scientific evidence;
AND IF THERE IS NONE THAN THERE IS OBVIOUSLY NO PROBLEM.
3. we must facilite co-ordinated European solutions if we are to find a way forwards.
TRANSLATION: YOU NEED TO DO WHAT THE AIRLINES TELL YOU TO DO OR YOU WILL BE LOOKING FOR ANOTHER JOB.
4. AND IF THE JAA OPENS THE AIRSPACE SAYING IT IS SAFE ENOUGH THE AIRLINES ARE NO LONGER CULPABLE FOR ANY ACCIDENTS. THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY DEATHS, ACCIDENTS OR INJURIES. HEY, THEY ARE THE REGULATORS, THE AIRLINES JUST PROVIDE A SERVICE.
Did you manage to write that all by yourself or did an idiot help you with it ?
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Update to Volcanic Ash Plume — 1855 on Monday 19 April 2010
Volcanic ash can be seen spreading southwards from Iceland (shown as a plume of orange and red colours on the satellite imagery). Up to date information from the Icelandic Met Office suggests the volcano is now erupting ash to a height of between 3 and 5 Km. Issued at 1854 on Mon 19 Apr 2010.
Met Office: Icelandic volcano blog
Volcanic ash can be seen spreading southwards from Iceland (shown as a plume of orange and red colours on the satellite imagery). Up to date information from the Icelandic Met Office suggests the volcano is now erupting ash to a height of between 3 and 5 Km. Issued at 1854 on Mon 19 Apr 2010.
Met Office: Icelandic volcano blog
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God save us...
... from the "expert" on the early evening news, who said something like "if an aircraft flies through volcanic ash, then all the engines will fail, it will crash and everyone on board will die" - rather an alarmist generalisation, I would suggest 
... from the "expert" on the early evening news, who said something like "if an aircraft flies through volcanic ash, then all the engines will fail, it will crash and everyone on board will die" - rather an alarmist generalisation, I would suggest
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Eurocrats say "as you were"
According to the Times: "Airspace over Britain will progressively reopen tomorrow starting at 7am, with a dramatic reduction in the no-fly zone over Europe agreed by EU transport ministers after a video conference this afternoon. "
Translation: "the cost of the shutdown has now exceeded the cost of a downed aircraft so its time to get back to work - at least until the first one comes down".
Translation: "the cost of the shutdown has now exceeded the cost of a downed aircraft so its time to get back to work - at least until the first one comes down".
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Eurocrats on CNN claiming they are opening airspace "on a scientific" basis, as well as claiming unity (and peace?) amongst European nations.
When questioned about the scientific basis, the babble began flowing about how they've managed to defuse any responsibility completely so nobody will know who actually made the decision!!!
Immediately followed by a Guy from Cranfield University that dryly observes that after fligts these last days the ash if anything as become MORE dense up there over the UK.
When questioned about the scientific basis, the babble began flowing about how they've managed to defuse any responsibility completely so nobody will know who actually made the decision!!!
Immediately followed by a Guy from Cranfield University that dryly observes that after fligts these last days the ash if anything as become MORE dense up there over the UK.
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Roy Hudd et al,
maybe the reason the naysayers have gone quiet is because there is nothing to add at this moment. The reason airspace is becoming available is becasue the Ash Charts, produced every 6 hours, show a reduction in the extent and coverage of the ash cloud.
A reduction that is totally in line with the fact that scientists have been saying over the past two days that the intensity and frequency of eruptions has been falling.
The return of airspace has nothng whatsoever to do with the publicity stunt flight by BA which has as much scientific credential as a Loreal shampoo advert.
maybe the reason the naysayers have gone quiet is because there is nothing to add at this moment. The reason airspace is becoming available is becasue the Ash Charts, produced every 6 hours, show a reduction in the extent and coverage of the ash cloud.
A reduction that is totally in line with the fact that scientists have been saying over the past two days that the intensity and frequency of eruptions has been falling.
The return of airspace has nothng whatsoever to do with the publicity stunt flight by BA which has as much scientific credential as a Loreal shampoo advert.
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Volcanic ash cloud
That LHR will likely not reopen on tuesday evening! However, if the wind over Iceland changes as expected tonight then an opening by say wednesday p.m. is probably reasonable.
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Cranfield University understanding of "URGENT"
AEST,
Cranfield University are known to be somewhat slow, as they have already taken three years to identify the toxic chemicals in visible oil fumes in a BAe 146 on the ground.
The Cranfield University report into airline Cabin Air Quality
Maybe they will tell us on election day - 6th May?
DB
Cranfield University are known to be somewhat slow, as they have already taken three years to identify the toxic chemicals in visible oil fumes in a BAe 146 on the ground.
The Cranfield University report into airline Cabin Air Quality
Maybe they will tell us on election day - 6th May?
DB
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Does anyone have any news what the Canadians are doing about their visit from the ash yet
Nevertheless some research into effects to aeroplanes by volcanic ash needs to be done in the immediate future. I would recommend NASA or National Geographic (mainly for the photographs)
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btw - those of you that have access to sky news (and if its repeated) - Frances Wilson - did a superb 5 minute section on tomorrows weather, the plume, the weather systems interactions etc -well worth a watch if its repeated.
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I hope the planned resumption of flying is due to the reported change in eruption emissions, but I do worry it's more to do with economics. I have no doubt that companies will hide behind the authority and responsibility of the commanders if incidents do start occurring, rather taking responsibility themselves, whilst putting unequivocal pressure on crews to operate regardless of their individual concerns. That legal and employment concern is still second to my safety concerns.
The test flights have proven nothing. The military aircraft which were damaged suffered that damage in just a few hours in relatively low density areas. Commercial aircraft will operate many times the duration of those F16s and F18s in a single day, and while the damage to those fighters did not cause engine failure, such prolonged flight in the ash as we will do could quite conceivable do so as the glass accumulates. I doubt that any aircraft will suffer serious issues on the first flights, or maybe even in the first day, but unless the engines are boroscoped very frequently, sooner or later events will start to occur.
I am not trained, paid or insured as a test pilot. Those who insist this is an over-reaction and that normal ops should continue are ignoring every piece of real evidence of numerous scientists, engineers and several broken aeroplanes. They lack the judgement and attitude to be safe pilots, and it's sad to see that so many of them exist.
The test flights have proven nothing. The military aircraft which were damaged suffered that damage in just a few hours in relatively low density areas. Commercial aircraft will operate many times the duration of those F16s and F18s in a single day, and while the damage to those fighters did not cause engine failure, such prolonged flight in the ash as we will do could quite conceivable do so as the glass accumulates. I doubt that any aircraft will suffer serious issues on the first flights, or maybe even in the first day, but unless the engines are boroscoped very frequently, sooner or later events will start to occur.
I am not trained, paid or insured as a test pilot. Those who insist this is an over-reaction and that normal ops should continue are ignoring every piece of real evidence of numerous scientists, engineers and several broken aeroplanes. They lack the judgement and attitude to be safe pilots, and it's sad to see that so many of them exist.