Ash clouds threaten air traffic
Joined: May 2008
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From: Midlands UK
As usual the Eurocrats know exactly what is going on!
Last updated: April 19 2010 15:17
European officials on Monday acknowledged weaknesses in the computer models that guided their decision to ground thousands of flights during the past week following a volcanic eruption in Iceland.
Many of the flights would have gone ahead under US aviation standards, they said, and urged that these be considered in the future.“The science behind the model we’re running at the moment is based on certain assumptions where we do not have clear scientific evidence. It is a black box in certain areas,” said Matthias Ruete, director-general for mobility and transport.
Mr Ruete noted, for example, that authorities were unsure what density of ash was hazardous for plane engines.
He also noted that early results of the 40-odd test flights conducted over the weekend by European airlines, such as KLM and Air France, suggested that the safety risk was less than the computer models had indicated.
“We looked at the engines and we also looked at the lubricated parts of the plane and windows and we found that there was no trace of ash,” he said.
Mr Ruete’s comments highlight the lack of technical expertise that has hamstrung European policymakers as they try to manage the consequences from a rare act of nature.
European officials on Monday acknowledged weaknesses in the computer models that guided their decision to ground thousands of flights during the past week following a volcanic eruption in Iceland.
Many of the flights would have gone ahead under US aviation standards, they said, and urged that these be considered in the future.“The science behind the model we’re running at the moment is based on certain assumptions where we do not have clear scientific evidence. It is a black box in certain areas,” said Matthias Ruete, director-general for mobility and transport.
Mr Ruete noted, for example, that authorities were unsure what density of ash was hazardous for plane engines.
He also noted that early results of the 40-odd test flights conducted over the weekend by European airlines, such as KLM and Air France, suggested that the safety risk was less than the computer models had indicated.
“We looked at the engines and we also looked at the lubricated parts of the plane and windows and we found that there was no trace of ash,” he said.
Mr Ruete’s comments highlight the lack of technical expertise that has hamstrung European policymakers as they try to manage the consequences from a rare act of nature.
Joined: Oct 2004
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From: oop north
Joined: May 2005
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From: Milton Keynes
Can we please have a transparent assessment made public of those aircraft that have and have not suffered though flying in the ash, irrespective of whether there is a reduction in ash tomorrow.
Then we can assess how to react if and when ash levels are high again.
Surely a few days to get more data and analyse it won't cripple the industry.
Peoples lives should not be subject of cost benefit analysis (they are in the NHS of course but don't start me.............)
Although I only fly recreationally, I do as a tug pilot have the guy on the back in my hands and I only fly is I am statisfied that (1) the aeroplane and I are fit and (2) the conditions are suitable; I resepct professonals who take the same attitude
Then we can assess how to react if and when ash levels are high again.
Surely a few days to get more data and analyse it won't cripple the industry.
Peoples lives should not be subject of cost benefit analysis (they are in the NHS of course but don't start me.............)
Although I only fly recreationally, I do as a tug pilot have the guy on the back in my hands and I only fly is I am statisfied that (1) the aeroplane and I are fit and (2) the conditions are suitable; I resepct professonals who take the same attitude
Joined: Jan 2008
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From: above it all
Helsinki, Turku and Tampere airports are temporarily open this afternoon but will probably be closed again for the night. Finnair´s JFK-HEL flight has already landed and will depart again later tonight and another flight from Madrid is expected to arrive later today, but that´s it as far as Finnair is concerned. Blue 1 will operate two flights. It´s not much but at least they´re trying to get some sense out of this mess..
Joined: Nov 2007
Aviation Qualifications: ATPL
Posts: 512
Likes: 829
From: UK
When the airspace opens in stages tomorrow, will they then shut it down again at night?
THat way if the volcano does kick off again, aircraft won't blunder into a dense ash cloud at night.
If it is only day time, then crew can still see and avoid.
Or will it be all crews scrambled to move as many people as possible as soon as possible?
THat way if the volcano does kick off again, aircraft won't blunder into a dense ash cloud at night.
If it is only day time, then crew can still see and avoid.
Or will it be all crews scrambled to move as many people as possible as soon as possible?
Joined: Jan 2008
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From: Denver
Financial news channel CNBC is reporting the airline loses due to the airspace closure are $200 million per day, and air cargo losses (including losses to non-aviation businesses that cannot deliver products) at $100 million per day. $1.5 billion over the 5 days so far.
(which sounds a bit low given the individual daily losses reported by BA, KLM, Emirates, etc., but perhaps those have "ramped up" as the crisis deepened).
In viewing the arguments on either side here, my sense is they boil down to "airspace should be open until it is proved unsafe" vs. "airspace should be closed until it is proved safe."
I'm not sure it will ever be possible to prove either case. 100 successful test flights are no guarantee that the 101st won't glide home with fused engines.
(which sounds a bit low given the individual daily losses reported by BA, KLM, Emirates, etc., but perhaps those have "ramped up" as the crisis deepened).
In viewing the arguments on either side here, my sense is they boil down to "airspace should be open until it is proved unsafe" vs. "airspace should be closed until it is proved safe."
I'm not sure it will ever be possible to prove either case. 100 successful test flights are no guarantee that the 101st won't glide home with fused engines.
Joined: Aug 2006
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From: EGCC
Mmmhh, just for ONE airport area? I did ask about statistically sound data for the entire affected area. Sorry, this hardly falls into that category. There is also no mention of concentration of potentially harmful substances.
Failed, mate.
Joined: Jul 2008
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From: 3433N 06912E
lomapaseo,
here's a pic of the T1 with the blade damage from an overtemp off wing from a 737, this engine still made egt's within limits in the test cell...
I have about 40 b-scopes on my shelf behind me some of engines i didnt own, some i did. btw i still have an engine stand down in ft. lauderdale, couldn't be a dear and pick it up for me could you ?
here's a pic of the T1 with the blade damage from an overtemp off wing from a 737, this engine still made egt's within limits in the test cell...
I have about 40 b-scopes on my shelf behind me some of engines i didnt own, some i did. btw i still have an engine stand down in ft. lauderdale, couldn't be a dear and pick it up for me could you ?
Joined: Aug 2008
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From: in a cigar lounge smoking a Partagas P2
Skylight :
That is correct - Lufthansa will fly home to FRA up to 15.000 pax from Asia, US, S. America on a temporary exemption of the flight ban.
50 wide-bodies will be used, taking off later this evening from what the German press/TV is reporting.
Guess it's also pressure applied to the transport minister by the LH CEO Mayrhuber who pressed his views on national tv last night - the minister didn't look too good.
Well done / Gut gemacht, Lufhansa
That is correct - Lufthansa will fly home to FRA up to 15.000 pax from Asia, US, S. America on a temporary exemption of the flight ban.
50 wide-bodies will be used, taking off later this evening from what the German press/TV is reporting.
Guess it's also pressure applied to the transport minister by the LH CEO Mayrhuber who pressed his views on national tv last night - the minister didn't look too good.
Well done / Gut gemacht, Lufhansa
Skylight :
Sky news just indicated that Luththansa have been given permission to fly 50 passenger flights back to Germany.they have not said where from?!
Sky news just indicated that Luththansa have been given permission to fly 50 passenger flights back to Germany.they have not said where from?!
Usual disclaimers apply!
Joined: Nov 1999
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From: EGGW
Someone should strap a 737 to their ass and go out to fly a full day of simulated air carrier operations around Europe for the day. At night the boys in maintenance get the plane.
Someone should strap a 737 to their ass and go out to fly a full night of simulated air carrier operations around Europe for the night. During the day the boys in maintenance get the plane.
Joined: Feb 2008
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From: UK
Lufthansa VFR
Re Lufthansa flights
"The planes will fly to Frankfurt, Munich and Duesseldorf under visual flight rules, he said, noting that air traffic control is still keeping its restrictions on German airspace.
"We have an exception that allows us to fly so-called visual flight rules,"
"The planes will fly to Frankfurt, Munich and Duesseldorf under visual flight rules, he said, noting that air traffic control is still keeping its restrictions on German airspace.
"We have an exception that allows us to fly so-called visual flight rules,"
Joined: Oct 2006
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From: ADEST
LFMM Marseille- open
LFEE Reims - open FL210 and above
LFFF Paris - open FL210 and above
LFRR Brest- open FL210 and above
LFBB Bordeaux- open, except LFBLM sectors FL145-195 closed until 20-0600z
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 388
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From: 3433N 06912E
Quote:
Someone should strap a 737 to their ass and go out to fly a full day of simulated air carrier operations around Europe for the day. At night the boys in maintenance get the plane.
Nah I've got a better plan!
Someone should strap a 737 to their ass and go out to fly a full night of simulated air carrier operations around Europe for the night. During the day the boys in maintenance get the plane.
Someone should strap a 737 to their ass and go out to fly a full day of simulated air carrier operations around Europe for the day. At night the boys in maintenance get the plane.
Nah I've got a better plan!
Someone should strap a 737 to their ass and go out to fly a full night of simulated air carrier operations around Europe for the night. During the day the boys in maintenance get the plane.
Joined: Jul 2002
Posts: 328
Likes: 16
From: Finland
Have other pilot associations gave a view ? Seems the Finnish ones are being more cautious (and as a joke it is not brilliant summer house weather so they are not "happy" to be on holiday.
From STT.
The Finnish Pilots' Association (FPA) issued a statement Monday warning that it would not be wise to rush into restarting air traffic in spite of the volcanic ash cloud covering Europe.
According to the statement, FPA exhorted authorities in European countries to make decisions on opening their national airspaces on a safe and consistent basis.
STT also reported:
Finland's government is preparing for weeks of disruptions in air traffic but is confident that no threats to the citizens' safety are on the horizon, Matti Vanhanen (centre), Finland's prime minister, said at a news conference in Helsinki on Monday.
The prime minister assured reporters that for example medicines would not run out. "We have good existing reserve supplies so this is not a threat," Mr Vanhanen said.
Finland's National Emergency Supply Agency is investigating what would happen if the cloud of volcanic ash from Iceland remained above northern Europe for several weeks. However, nobody knows for how long the ash will cause problems, Mr Vanhanen added.
From STT.
The Finnish Pilots' Association (FPA) issued a statement Monday warning that it would not be wise to rush into restarting air traffic in spite of the volcanic ash cloud covering Europe.
According to the statement, FPA exhorted authorities in European countries to make decisions on opening their national airspaces on a safe and consistent basis.
STT also reported:
Finland's government is preparing for weeks of disruptions in air traffic but is confident that no threats to the citizens' safety are on the horizon, Matti Vanhanen (centre), Finland's prime minister, said at a news conference in Helsinki on Monday.
The prime minister assured reporters that for example medicines would not run out. "We have good existing reserve supplies so this is not a threat," Mr Vanhanen said.
Finland's National Emergency Supply Agency is investigating what would happen if the cloud of volcanic ash from Iceland remained above northern Europe for several weeks. However, nobody knows for how long the ash will cause problems, Mr Vanhanen added.
