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Ash clouds threaten air traffic

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Ash clouds threaten air traffic

Old 20th Apr 2010, 22:05
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Originally Posted by peter we
It will be interesting what Ryanair do, they have no pressing commercial need to fly.
What apart from that being how they make their money?

back to topic....

These jets set off when they were under the impression airspace would open this evening. BA are not the only airline flying in. Qatar, Thomas Cook, TUI and some others have all begun approaching LHR.

They most likely took a calculated risk of diversion after the earlier possibility that airspace may open.

Regardless of what you think, financial reasons are not going to force an airline to send their aircraft through areas which they think is going to cost them millions more in damage than the continuing stoppage.

Let us not now use this as an excuse to berate anybody. Airlines are staffed with personnel (or are able to call on the expertise of other people) who are far more qualified to make these judgements than the self proclaimed saviours of aviation on both sides of the line on here.

Slowly though it came, it appears that data has been gathered, manufacturers have been consulted and various boffins have come to the conclusion that it is time for a more directed approach to the airspace closure.
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Old 20th Apr 2010, 22:06
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I can't wait to see this disected in the coming weeks and months as my cynical view point is that

1) BA perform test flights for 3 hours, nothing of note found (aparently)
2) since early this morning flights flying over uk to USA/south America
3) WW launches the fleet, knowing he is invited to cobra in 12 hrs
4) dozen or so BA jets rock up over head, only hrs after airports again shut down
5) WW to goverment, I have 12 jets overhead, running low on fuel. You want to send them to Europe after they have already been flying overhead for an hour or so, surely let's get them on the ground asap.

how can from this afternoon it suddenly gets bad enough to re close the whole uk again, until Speedbirds arrive overhead...oh did I mention there is an election coming up? Voters stuck overseas...media not talking about politics only ash...

Am I being cynical?
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Old 20th Apr 2010, 22:07
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Joetom

Will be interesting to see what the maint departments find when doing checks after flight through ash.
I presume most prudent airmen will avoid flying through visible ash, so I imagine that this will be an extremely infrequent occurrence.
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Old 20th Apr 2010, 22:08
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Statement on Icelandic volcanic eruption: Tuesday April 20, 2300

NATS welcomes new CAA guidance and reopens airspace
We are delighted to report that most restrictions on UK airspace began to be lifted at 2134 (local time) this evening, following new guidance from the UKís safety regulator, the Civil Aviation Authority on restrictions to UK airspace as a result of the volcanic eruption.
Air traffic control services have resumed in the UK with the exception of an area over the north west of Scotland which continues to be affected by a dense concentration of volcanic ash. Based on current information this situation is not expected to change overnight. The situation continues to be dynamic as a result of changing weather conditions and the prediction of dense areas of volcanic ash. NATS will continue to monitor the latest Met Office and VAAC information and the CAAís updates on the availability of UK airspace.
This brings to an end a period of disruption and uncertainty for air passengers. Our operation is fully staffed and already responding to the backlog of flights entering UK airspace. We will be working with the airlines and airports to resume normal operations as soon as possible.
Due to the scale of the disruption, it will take some time for flights to resume normal operations and passengers are advised to check with their airlines for the latest information about flights.
There are no further operational changes expected overnight and on this basis our next update will be at 0900 (local time) on 21 April.
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Old 20th Apr 2010, 22:08
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I am really interested to hear from all those folk who posted on here lambasting anyone who dared suggest that this whole exersize was an overreaction. Will they be strapping into their respective rides when they're next rostered even if the 'plume' is still floating about?? Just curious...
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Old 20th Apr 2010, 22:11
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Sky News

Just watching Sky News. Enormous effort by those involved over ash delays to protect themselves over decisions taken, ie no loss of face. Well done Will.
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Old 20th Apr 2010, 22:13
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I'm incredibly proud to work for BA, especially tonight. I'm not usually a fan of WW, but tonight he's put the bearded one firmly into the shadows. An incredible piece of brinkmanship.
I'm bloody glad he's working for us.
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Old 20th Apr 2010, 22:17
  #2068 (permalink)  
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New no-fly zone

The Irish Aviation Authority website at Irish Aviation Authority - IRISH AIRSPACE AND AIRPORTS CLEARED TO REOPEN links to the current EU no-fly zone as a PDF at http://www.iaa.ie/files/2010/docs/ne..._Air_ash_c.pdf

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Old 20th Apr 2010, 22:18
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The guy from NATS interviewed on sky (sorry dont know his name) did say that no entity had put any pressure on them at all to re-open the airspace........ rather it was a decision that was made based on a better understanding of what is actually in the air based on all the data collected recently.

I guess the inference being........ more knowledge makes for more informed decisions. The position previously adopted was the ICAO NO ash is acceptable, but that was based on minimal, if any data. Now the various parties have data and have raised the bar from NO ASH to whatever ash now and im sure as time goes by that will be updated as well.
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Old 20th Apr 2010, 22:24
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Originally Posted by peter we
Ryanair have the cash to wait until it really is clear to fly and not make a desperate gamble. I trust their judgement far more than the legacy airlines in this case.
I'm sorry I just think that is an odd point of view.

Ryanair do have substantial cash reserves I agree, but MOL is hardly the type of person to throw them away unless he has to.

Quite frankly I trust the judgement of the airlines (in conjunction with other members of the industry such as the engine manufacturers) far more than that of contributors to this thread.

I guess we'll have to wait and see if BA have just thrown away 50 or so multi million pound engines as all these aircraft come in, or whether they had a fair idea what they were doing, i.e. the thing they have been doing very successfully under one name or another for the best part of a century, flying people safely around the globe, (at times through areas of volcanic activity).

Last edited by Matt101; 20th Apr 2010 at 22:30. Reason: history.
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Old 20th Apr 2010, 22:26
  #2071 (permalink)  
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So allegations that engines were affected on the BA flight to CWL and
one aircraft on approach to LHR this evening reports "burning smell" during
descent through 5000'.

BS? Scaremongering?

Personally I'm not convinced regarding the longer term affect on engine life.
I just hope this doesn't backfire in about a months time.

A4
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Old 20th Apr 2010, 22:27
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The guy from NATS interviewed on sky did say that no entity had put any pressure on them at all to re-open the airspace
When one of your shareholders throws 12 flights across the atlantic at you expecting a service at the same time as crying to the government.... I'd say thats pressure being put on you
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Old 20th Apr 2010, 22:31
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I am really interested to hear from all those folk who posted on here lambasting anyone who dared suggest that this whole exersize was an overreaction.
TDK

Overreaction? would that ever happen with all the scientific knowledge?

Mexican flu! 65,000 estimated deaths. £2 billion on tamiflu reality 340 deaths cant give the Tamiflu away.

Bird flu! what happened to all the birds which were going to invade and kill us?

Global warming man made? How much Carbon has this thing chucked into the atmosphere? Oh well im sure the science will blame man made causes for any temperature increases and raise the taxes to further kill off the airlines.

The list goes on and on.

Shall I start on medicine?

Do we over react? of course not.

Maybe that black cloud was really caused by banging particles together somewhere in Switzerland
The only black hole is in our aviation industry.

Pace

Last edited by Pace; 20th Apr 2010 at 22:46.
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Old 20th Apr 2010, 22:31
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I am really interested to hear from all those folk who posted on here lambasting anyone who dared suggest that this whole exersize was an overreaction. Will they be strapping into their respective rides when they're next rostered even if the 'plume' is still floating about?? Just curious...
Speaking as a jet Captain with nearly forty years experience and over twenty years in the left hand seat of jet airliners I am more than delighted to see sensible reason overcome 'Teflon coated beurocracy'.

The simple truth is that we have seen what could have been the end of European Aviation as we know it. Without reasonable assesment risk and flight evaluation based on true fact and not computer models we could have obliterated commercial aviation in the UK. The unpronouncable volcano could, and might contue to erupt for years to come. What were we supposed to do? Go back one hundred years?

I am more than happy to take to the skies with passengers on board, and would have done so from day one. It was obvious that whilst we needed to evaluate the erosion and long term effects on engines there was no reason that so long as we kept well away from the core cloud we were at no more danger than in every day life.

The sooner we stop living in a 'Health and Safety' bubble fuelled by lawyers ever ready to make a buck on the slightest excuse of liablility the better. Sadly I doubt it will be in my lifetime.
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Old 20th Apr 2010, 22:34
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Met Office are publishing charts indicating concentration levels. Not entirely sure what the 'Standard concentration threshold' is but here you go....

Met Office: Icelandic volcano - Ash concentration charts
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Old 20th Apr 2010, 22:37
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Originally Posted by BarbiesBoyfriend
So:

This morning flying is DANGEROUS!, and banned.

Now, flying is safe.

Utter, utter incompetence.
How else do you expect it to work?

I am utterly confused. Either it is safe or unsafe and there is a (not necessarily constant) boundary between the two.

I agree with the somewhat wiser posters on this thread that make the point about *some* in the piloting profession getting all upset when their judgement is questioned, yet think they know more than experts in other professions. Disappointing and unacceptable. "Your safety is our first priority (except with it's not convenient)" it would seem.
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Old 20th Apr 2010, 22:40
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volcanoes

Just a thought, - in South America there are eruptions in the Andes all the time? How is it handled there?
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Old 20th Apr 2010, 22:41
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Ella, i agree completely!

And here in Germany, they seem to be all asleep, the report of the DLR plane has been out for hours now, but nothing is happening.

Well, that transport minister of ours has been doing what the advisors told him, from day one. He can't even pronounce ICAO right, so I doubt he even knows what it is.

Nic
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Old 20th Apr 2010, 22:44
  #2079 (permalink)  
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So looking at the groovy new ash charts, it appears that now and tomorrow below FL200 the ash concentrations are IN EXCESS of the new thresholds...... so why are we operating? Also there is a big black area which is 10 times above "standard" threshold heading our way. Looks like the euphoria may be short lived :/

A4
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Old 20th Apr 2010, 22:45
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The million dollar question right now is....

DID one of the BA EGLL inbounds this evening report burning smells during its descent. And if it did, whats the story?!

Someone here must have heard it?
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