ethiopian airlines aircraft down near Beirut

[captplaystation]

Then again, more likely could be a lightning flash

[Speed of Sound]

Seems to me like an engine surge,followed by another engine surge.......

...Alternatively,the 'flashes' were the aircraft strobes.

If this footage came from CCTV then surely there must also be other footage of similar aircraft on a similar heading in similar 'light' conditions, to compare the 'brightness' of anti-collision lights with the footage in question?

SoS

[BillS]

If this were a single strobe, by timing, there is a flash "missing" before the sequence of two as well as after.

[hetfield]

@captplaystation

Can't remember any fatal loss due to lightning strike. Do you?

[ribt4t]

Airliner loss due to lighting strike appears to be very rare :

Aviation Losses from Lightning Strikes - National Lightning Safety Institute


I was actually on a DC10 a couple of years ago that was struck by lightning - nothing unusual appeared to happen from a SLF point of view.

[S.F.L.Y]

Have you ever seen the damages caused by lightning strikes? It can be bad enough to take you down.

[Kita]

lots of good comments here & also lots of speculation....so Ill add to the list. Good aircraft flew into thunderstorm after T/O and overwhelmed the crew is my take on it so far...there is always a chain of events leading to a tragic end!!

[ECAM Status]

I fly on the area quite often. I was also flying there last night. There is a NOTAM of UNIFIL exercises in the area between Cyprus and Lebanon in areas called BARBARA 1 and BARBARA 2 for the last few weeks. I believe there were exercises going on that night as well. You can find this NOTAM in the Nicosia FIR notams. How about a rocket flying loose tha night from all those ships that are in the area???? No surprise they were quick in attending the scene of the accident to help out. We've seen this scenario in the past.

[Speed of Sound]

If this were a single strobe, by timing, there is a flash "missing" before the sequence of two as well as after.

This could be caused by the aircraft passing a tower block, lamp-post or any other obstruction in the field of view of the CCTV.

That is why I suggested comparing the footage with other aircraft climbs from the same camera.

SoS

[hetfield]

"The jet turned north.........140°..."

[captplaystation]

Hetfield,

Very rare indeed but reading & refreshing my memory of the Iranian Air Force 747 accident on the approach into Madrid on the link on post# 108 doesn't fill me full of confidence.
This aircraft, by coincidence was ex TWA & the sister ship of the ill fated TWA off Long Island which "appeared to suffer an in-flight explosion of the centre tank" caused by shorting fuel pumps or USN cock-up depending on the version you subscribe to.
The B738 incidentely is a lightning magnet & (not just my opinion but confirmed by "ginger-beers" ) seems to suffer a disproportianete number of strikes compared to other types (before winglets too, so not that)
Don't know if it is relation of wing-span to length / where the composite bits are located/ poor bonding ? really no idea, but it attracts lightning like no other type I have flown & is several scales worse than the 733/4/5 for instance.

Incidentally I wasn't suggesting that a lightning strike caused this, merely stating that what I saw, in duration & intensity, looked more like a lightning discharge than an explosion. Difficult to say anything with any degree of certainty concerning the poor quality of cctv anyhow.

Edited to say, having read the post above about the exercises Itavia DC9 over the Med / Iran Air Airbus / TWA (maybe?)/ a TU154 not so many years ago ? indeed why not, but in that case we will wait 20 ? 30 ? or how many years ? for the truth.

[Graybeard]

Informative, CPS, thanks. Could it be that long thin wing in a 30 degree bank emulating a lightning rod?

Seems like the majority of strikes to most aircraft types occur wings level, and to the fuselage. I wonder how much study has been done of strikes to the wingips, especially with winglets?

GB

[S.F.L.Y]

I had two experiences with entry points on turboprop blade tips (which melted) and many exit points (small holes over the airframe or melted flap parts).

[threemiles]

Departure runway 21 calls for a right turn to the sea at 400', thence SID to Chekka (CAK) which is 030 track. This path crosses final rwy 16 at low altitude, so after 5000' ATC rightly tried to vector towards the West to avoid approaching traffic. Then they did an almost complete left two-seventy back to South of the airport, climbing to 9000 feet (4000 feet is 1 1/2 minutes). Continue on this path would have flown them directly into the mountains. EGPWS warning adding to confusion?
My speculative bet - autopilot disengagement went unnoticed when switching to heading mode - tried manual correction while spatially disorientated = Kenya + Flash

[TWOTBAGS]

Lightening & Composites

Here is my experience with it, one strike on the winglet of a 1900 and it blew the crap out of the internal carbon fibre.



Other strikes and issues follow, junked the PT6 because the core was magnetised... basically a not fun and very expensive day




So an average stike of 30kA /500MJ is food for thought. It certainly opened my eyes

[Machaca]

KALDE 2D when headed South, no?

[parabellum]

"Pilots turns the wrong way, ignored ATC instructions"

Well, did they? Depending on the severity and location of a lightning strike it may disable some systems, usually temporarily, in my experience. In this case, if they were struck by lightening, they may have lost radio and not heard the instruction and radar and not seen the core of the CB, as it was an NG it may have taken out their flight instruments too.

All speculation but we mustn't be too quick to blame the crew. As the crash was at least five minutes after the take-off none of the flashes etc. at the airport are likely to be relevant.

[OldChinaHand]

What Lightning can do !!

Many years ago while flying a large turbo prop over Italy we were hit 3 times in quick succession by Lightning while trying to negotiate weather. This was coupled with severe icing. The compass system was damaged by the electric discharges and rendered useless/unreliable. We were about 30 mins from destination (Pisa) and Radar assisted us with position and Hdgs (utilising standby compass) to continue. Vectors and descent to a high cloudbreak and visual approach into Pisa. Once landed we also discovered a 5 square inch chunk had been blown from the RH elevator. Not a fun morning.

I am not saying Lightning downed Ethopian, just relating my experience of a what it can do. I have been hit by same many times since, but never saw this damage repeated.

[slamer.]

Back in post 112 there is mention of "other traffic" close by, wonder if some TCAS manoeuvering could be a factor here..?.... just a thought in light of the reports re not following ATC instuctions.

[threemiles]

Flight plan was via CAK, then Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia. Long way around east of Israel.

Other traffic was two approaches to runway 16, that's why vectored away from.