Updated Crossair/Swissair Business Plan Revealed
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"Folding in the current Crossair fleet would raise the total to 125 aircraft in 2002 to transport a projected 9.8 million passengers. "
Hmmm, 9.8 million pax in 125 aircraft??? Ryanair carry similar numbers in approx. 36 aircraft... Granted you'll need more aircraft for longer haul services, but this still seems like a crazy number of aircraft for the projected numbers. Looks like a recipe for huge costs and insufficient yields... Good luck to them, I hope it works, but I have my doubts.
411A: If indeed you are a pilot as your profile claims, is it always your policy to back stab your peers and collegues? Methinks you're probably quite short on drinking buddies.
Guvnor: Well said about the welfare state. Time and time again reliance on a welfare socialist system as opposed to entreprenuerialism has proved to destroy economies and wealth creation, making sure everyone suffers. A system for the jealous and the lazy.
Hmmm, 9.8 million pax in 125 aircraft??? Ryanair carry similar numbers in approx. 36 aircraft... Granted you'll need more aircraft for longer haul services, but this still seems like a crazy number of aircraft for the projected numbers. Looks like a recipe for huge costs and insufficient yields... Good luck to them, I hope it works, but I have my doubts.
411A: If indeed you are a pilot as your profile claims, is it always your policy to back stab your peers and collegues? Methinks you're probably quite short on drinking buddies.
Guvnor: Well said about the welfare state. Time and time again reliance on a welfare socialist system as opposed to entreprenuerialism has proved to destroy economies and wealth creation, making sure everyone suffers. A system for the jealous and the lazy.
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Gantenbein, you said:
Interestingly, it seems that the vast majority of strikes in Belgium (and France) seem to be directed at the government - not private companies. The recent French ATC strike is one such; as was the near-riots in the centre of Brussels when Sabena employees tried to burn down the Prime Minister's residence.
Well, I don't know about your neck of the woods, but here we have this thing called democracy. If we want our voices to be heard, we vote out the incumbents and replace them with people that listen.
Not that it seems to be working well with the present lot!
have you ever considered the possibility that the reason why Belgians (and the oft-maligned French) resort to striking is because it is the only way for their grievances to be heard?
Well, I don't know about your neck of the woods, but here we have this thing called democracy. If we want our voices to be heard, we vote out the incumbents and replace them with people that listen.
Not that it seems to be working well with the present lot!
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Guvnor:
But your words don’t contradict me at all! Since many Belgian and French companies are still partly government-owned, the 'management' that the staff rebel against includes government! The gendarmes I mentioned are a case in point. They are a military outfit, they don't have the right to strike, and for them to go out on to the streets proves how hard-pressed they were to see some improvement in their conditions.
In my neck of the woods, democracy exists, believe it or not. But ask any Belgian or French employee whether they are willing to wait and see if the next elections will bring change. Their jobs, regardless of what has happened in the past, will come first.
Anyone care to comment on the chances of a fourth European alliance?
But your words don’t contradict me at all! Since many Belgian and French companies are still partly government-owned, the 'management' that the staff rebel against includes government! The gendarmes I mentioned are a case in point. They are a military outfit, they don't have the right to strike, and for them to go out on to the streets proves how hard-pressed they were to see some improvement in their conditions.
In my neck of the woods, democracy exists, believe it or not. But ask any Belgian or French employee whether they are willing to wait and see if the next elections will bring change. Their jobs, regardless of what has happened in the past, will come first.
Anyone care to comment on the chances of a fourth European alliance?
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Gantenbein,
just like to comment on the alliances. As these mostly are marketing alliances covering alignment of flight schedules, FFP´s, reservation systems, codes... in order to attract higher passenger numbers to their alliance system without really integrating the participating carriers (look at the current level of integration in Star or Skyteam - it´s not able to really bring cost down), you need some strong partners, especially between Europe the US and Asia. With whom in the US would you want to form a new alliance? And with whom in Europe, you would end up with a new approach to Qualiflyer with its unique secondary carrier & hub idea which proved to be a costly mistake because the basic assumption was not right (although fascinating)The local pax potential in ZRH is not suitable for a huge hub operation (especially not in comparison to e.g. LHR or CDG) und feeding in passengers simply increases cost with pax normally accepting hub connections via other countries only if there is a lower price level involves (eco) und for C it is more a matter of connectivity, ffp and service level (ok, here SR could have gained some ground)
I simply doubt that a new combination of secondary carriers, as this is what LX will be, will have any potential to stay in europe´s thin air, as the consolidation process just has started. Any combination with other alliances would cut the long-haul wings, but this approach might in the end result in some job security. Airline economics have always be valid in CH as well but been ignored for some time. Continue with that or end wishful thinking, face reality und do something with a real future.
silversurfer
just like to comment on the alliances. As these mostly are marketing alliances covering alignment of flight schedules, FFP´s, reservation systems, codes... in order to attract higher passenger numbers to their alliance system without really integrating the participating carriers (look at the current level of integration in Star or Skyteam - it´s not able to really bring cost down), you need some strong partners, especially between Europe the US and Asia. With whom in the US would you want to form a new alliance? And with whom in Europe, you would end up with a new approach to Qualiflyer with its unique secondary carrier & hub idea which proved to be a costly mistake because the basic assumption was not right (although fascinating)The local pax potential in ZRH is not suitable for a huge hub operation (especially not in comparison to e.g. LHR or CDG) und feeding in passengers simply increases cost with pax normally accepting hub connections via other countries only if there is a lower price level involves (eco) und for C it is more a matter of connectivity, ffp and service level (ok, here SR could have gained some ground)
I simply doubt that a new combination of secondary carriers, as this is what LX will be, will have any potential to stay in europe´s thin air, as the consolidation process just has started. Any combination with other alliances would cut the long-haul wings, but this approach might in the end result in some job security. Airline economics have always be valid in CH as well but been ignored for some time. Continue with that or end wishful thinking, face reality und do something with a real future.
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Strange how a topic can drift off subject.
Far be it from me to comment on the efficiency of a strike. A pure oxymoron if ever I saw one.
On a +ve note however, with so many potential experts around on the forum, pointing out the pitfalls, and even better, bringing up some “out of the box” thinking as potential solutions, to help André and keep a few flying jobs in Switzerland would perhaps be more constructive.
Fleet sizes
Indeed the math tends to suggest that somewhere around the original 26+13 idea would be a better deal than the 26/26, especially as we all know that shirts are being heavily lost over the puddle. Guv, if it were your show how would U structure it?
Given what they have in the way of choices and given that SR’s concept of a single cockpit, closely matched by LX’s similar idea for Embraer’s is basicall very sound. One has to think that a 2 cockpit logic (short-med haul and high vol-long haul) could make a lot of economic sense. I think my vision would be:
- Flog the MD’s for whatever the market rate is – the PAX hate them and a refurbish isn’t really on the cards.
- Keep A330’s for a few Africa & ME routes and perhaps an NYC and the US future partner’s hub.
- Swap everything else for A340’s for the profitable FE and LATAM routes.
In addition:
- Clean up the short haul fleet by have the DC’s go ASAP
- Eliminating the S2K’s for 145’s might be logical
- Keeping either AJ’s or A319’s, but not both, could get some further economies of scale, but whatever is selected the mid term 170/190’s must be remembered – they will be a lot more price performant than either of the others.
- Dumping ZRH as a Hub and moving it to BSL – only if a deal could be struck with the French ATC that guarantees NO STRIKES ??? Now there’s a novel idea.
Anyway part of the vision has to be - go for quality – if the service is 'the best', those with money will pay for it. Trying to beat the discounters will only make you ‘go for broke’.
The tricky thing really is - which partnership. The NW-KLM set-up is as close to a true partnership as any have got (and none go far enough from the PAX’s point of view), & the NW-KLM one is too down market. 1world seems out so – AF and back to Delta or the almost bankrupt Star (with United, Lufthansa, Varig, SAS, Ansett, ANZ, Thai, ANA and even Singapore all finding things very hard going). At present neither is a good choice – keeping Qualifryer and cross partnering (like Cathay does) sounds almost more logical as a short term strategy.
Personally – and it is very personal – even though I hope like heck that they make it; too much confidence is lost by the new boards make-up. With Moritz and André at the helm and avoiding the SR type ‘problem image’ in any shape or form they had a 60/40 chance – especially with a bit tighter rationalization than a first considered. But the board and the fixation on an expensive re-branding with a parallel to a bankrupt imaged name brings that down for me by about 15% points each. Even if that is only down by 25% in total – the current constellation is around a 35/65 chance in my view. Not good odds.
OK – its only sculpture on clouds – so shoot the straw-man down – but only if you can suggest improvements & stay positive guys & gals its jobs we are talking about.
------------------------------
Still hope it succeeds.
[ 12 December 2001: Message edited by: gofer ]
Far be it from me to comment on the efficiency of a strike. A pure oxymoron if ever I saw one.
On a +ve note however, with so many potential experts around on the forum, pointing out the pitfalls, and even better, bringing up some “out of the box” thinking as potential solutions, to help André and keep a few flying jobs in Switzerland would perhaps be more constructive.
Fleet sizes
Indeed the math tends to suggest that somewhere around the original 26+13 idea would be a better deal than the 26/26, especially as we all know that shirts are being heavily lost over the puddle. Guv, if it were your show how would U structure it?
Given what they have in the way of choices and given that SR’s concept of a single cockpit, closely matched by LX’s similar idea for Embraer’s is basicall very sound. One has to think that a 2 cockpit logic (short-med haul and high vol-long haul) could make a lot of economic sense. I think my vision would be:
- Flog the MD’s for whatever the market rate is – the PAX hate them and a refurbish isn’t really on the cards.
- Keep A330’s for a few Africa & ME routes and perhaps an NYC and the US future partner’s hub.
- Swap everything else for A340’s for the profitable FE and LATAM routes.
In addition:
- Clean up the short haul fleet by have the DC’s go ASAP
- Eliminating the S2K’s for 145’s might be logical
- Keeping either AJ’s or A319’s, but not both, could get some further economies of scale, but whatever is selected the mid term 170/190’s must be remembered – they will be a lot more price performant than either of the others.
- Dumping ZRH as a Hub and moving it to BSL – only if a deal could be struck with the French ATC that guarantees NO STRIKES ??? Now there’s a novel idea.
Anyway part of the vision has to be - go for quality – if the service is 'the best', those with money will pay for it. Trying to beat the discounters will only make you ‘go for broke’.
The tricky thing really is - which partnership. The NW-KLM set-up is as close to a true partnership as any have got (and none go far enough from the PAX’s point of view), & the NW-KLM one is too down market. 1world seems out so – AF and back to Delta or the almost bankrupt Star (with United, Lufthansa, Varig, SAS, Ansett, ANZ, Thai, ANA and even Singapore all finding things very hard going). At present neither is a good choice – keeping Qualifryer and cross partnering (like Cathay does) sounds almost more logical as a short term strategy.
Personally – and it is very personal – even though I hope like heck that they make it; too much confidence is lost by the new boards make-up. With Moritz and André at the helm and avoiding the SR type ‘problem image’ in any shape or form they had a 60/40 chance – especially with a bit tighter rationalization than a first considered. But the board and the fixation on an expensive re-branding with a parallel to a bankrupt imaged name brings that down for me by about 15% points each. Even if that is only down by 25% in total – the current constellation is around a 35/65 chance in my view. Not good odds.
OK – its only sculpture on clouds – so shoot the straw-man down – but only if you can suggest improvements & stay positive guys & gals its jobs we are talking about.
------------------------------
Still hope it succeeds.
[ 12 December 2001: Message edited by: gofer ]
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Hmmm, you seem to be a little out of date on a number of things...
They need the MD-11s for longer routes, eg Japan, which ARE profitable, but not feasible by A330. And getting an all new type (A340s) right now when they have no money is not really feasible, although I can see this happening down the line (but not with -600s, as had been planned; more likely -300s).
Is over a year ago soon enough for you? All the MD-80s have been long gone.
Already planned. SAAB 340s and 2000s are being replaced with ERJ 145s and Embraer 170s.
Avro RJs will be replaced by the Embraer 195s on order. AFAIK, the current plan does not call for any A319s to be kept, just A320s.
ZRH is Switzerland's financial center. That's where most Swiss traffic originates, that's where most business travellers going to Switzerland go. ANd you want to drop that?
I think my vision would be:
- Flog the MD’s for whatever the market rate is – the PAX hate them and a refurbish isn’t really on the cards.
- Keep A330’s for a few Africa & ME routes and perhaps an NYC and the US future partner’s hub.
- Swap everything else for A340’s for the profitable FE and LATAM routes.
- Flog the MD’s for whatever the market rate is – the PAX hate them and a refurbish isn’t really on the cards.
- Keep A330’s for a few Africa & ME routes and perhaps an NYC and the US future partner’s hub.
- Swap everything else for A340’s for the profitable FE and LATAM routes.
In addition:
- Clean up the short haul fleet by have the DC’s go ASAP
- Clean up the short haul fleet by have the DC’s go ASAP
- Eliminating the S2K’s for 145’s might be logical
- Keeping either AJ’s or A319’s, but not both, could get some further economies of scale, but whatever is selected the mid term 170/190’s must be remembered – they will be a lot more price performant than either of the others.
- Dumping ZRH as a Hub and moving it to BSL – only if a deal could be struck with the French ATC that guarantees NO STRIKES ??? Now there’s a novel idea.
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On the subject of 'social actions' - I hear that former Sabena employees are intending to blockade Brussels Airport on the 14th (Friday) - the day of the Laeken European Council.
How to make friends and influence people the Mafia (oops, sory, Sabena) way! 
How to make friends and influence people the Mafia (oops, sory, Sabena) way!
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Guv,
Those poeple aren't allowed to find another job and don't get any social help because they didn't recieved an official letter of dismissal!! That means more than 2 months without 1€!! Can you understand this action now??
Those poeple aren't allowed to find another job and don't get any social help because they didn't recieved an official letter of dismissal!! That means more than 2 months without 1€!! Can you understand this action now??
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Spag - beg to differ on some of that but thanks for the update:
Try:
Crossair's web page
it actually admits that the MD80's are in the fleet, and I flew 2 of them last week (ugh yukki tight pitched 'Y' seats to kill kneecaps. Fact is they are still flying, also confirmed by other sources (my daughters duty roster this month).
The other thoughts were that when converting to very flexi leases - its cheaper to run a brand new fleet than some of the better "well run in" models - in spite of what the 'Guv' might think. And if I remember correctly Airbus or one of the leasing co's has a handfull of A340's that have range to equal the SR MD11's with 20-25% more capacity and a lower fuel consumption and could be available - next week - if there was operating money to run them !
The A330's are OK for the medium haul of Africa, Middle East and USA but the US is a real loss leader at the moment.
Any other comments, now's your chance to give a new management all that good advice they could perhaps use...
As for ZRH, well at the moment it isn't all golden there at all - but the EUROCROSS traffic at Basel proves that those who have to take a dog-leg like to do it through a small & efficient airport (ups sorry ZRH) coz its quicker. With a high percentage of long haul having already pulled out of ZRH in the last 12 months (United & Cathay to name but 2) the dog leg to LHR, CDG, FRA & AMS becomes the NORM - and don't forget that BSL has a better approach and longer runway. The only in-built handicap in EAP is the French ATC, versus the ZRH handicap of an approach over Germany or Rwy 28 which is useless for a solid sized tin can. And to cap it all the FLUGZUG is more efficient than Zurich-AP - if only they would build that 500 meter spur-line to EAP.
[ 13 December 2001: Message edited by: gofer ]
Try:
Crossair's web page
it actually admits that the MD80's are in the fleet, and I flew 2 of them last week (ugh yukki tight pitched 'Y' seats to kill kneecaps. Fact is they are still flying, also confirmed by other sources (my daughters duty roster this month).
The other thoughts were that when converting to very flexi leases - its cheaper to run a brand new fleet than some of the better "well run in" models - in spite of what the 'Guv' might think. And if I remember correctly Airbus or one of the leasing co's has a handfull of A340's that have range to equal the SR MD11's with 20-25% more capacity and a lower fuel consumption and could be available - next week - if there was operating money to run them !
The A330's are OK for the medium haul of Africa, Middle East and USA but the US is a real loss leader at the moment.
Any other comments, now's your chance to give a new management all that good advice they could perhaps use...
As for ZRH, well at the moment it isn't all golden there at all - but the EUROCROSS traffic at Basel proves that those who have to take a dog-leg like to do it through a small & efficient airport (ups sorry ZRH) coz its quicker. With a high percentage of long haul having already pulled out of ZRH in the last 12 months (United & Cathay to name but 2) the dog leg to LHR, CDG, FRA & AMS becomes the NORM - and don't forget that BSL has a better approach and longer runway. The only in-built handicap in EAP is the French ATC, versus the ZRH handicap of an approach over Germany or Rwy 28 which is useless for a solid sized tin can. And to cap it all the FLUGZUG is more efficient than Zurich-AP - if only they would build that 500 meter spur-line to EAP.
[ 13 December 2001: Message edited by: gofer ]
Freight God
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Gantenbein
well, it's just a 'freight god', so that's only a very tiny one....
Why I consider Pieter Bowe to be a failure? Simple: look at his real resume (not the one given in the press, the one in the industry), talk to people who have worked with him and dealt with him, and then ask yoursself, why is the guy, who (in the eyes of the biggest culprit of the whole affair, Mr. Rainer E. Gut) should bring back the Swiss Air Traffic and is soooooo exeptionally good to be able to do that AVAILABLE! If he's so good, why isn't he still running KLM?
So all in all, I don't get the picture of a man who is able to take the major task on him to build a new airline on the remains of a formarly truly great one, and one that is still in massive growing pains.
well, it's just a 'freight god', so that's only a very tiny one....
Why I consider Pieter Bowe to be a failure? Simple: look at his real resume (not the one given in the press, the one in the industry), talk to people who have worked with him and dealt with him, and then ask yoursself, why is the guy, who (in the eyes of the biggest culprit of the whole affair, Mr. Rainer E. Gut) should bring back the Swiss Air Traffic and is soooooo exeptionally good to be able to do that AVAILABLE! If he's so good, why isn't he still running KLM?
So all in all, I don't get the picture of a man who is able to take the major task on him to build a new airline on the remains of a formarly truly great one, and one that is still in massive growing pains.
