The end of cheap pilots
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The end of cheap pilots
It seems that the large pool of qualified pilots is drying rapidly
The combination of some factors such as: slow recover to pre Sep11 traffic, massive retirement forecasts, the amazing Mid East and Asia expansion and more will turn 10,000 plus hours coupled with good PIC jet airline hours a valuable asset again sooner than expected.
Take this into account before leaving your present job for what seems a greener pasture now.
Things will improve as employers will (and are in ) badly need qualified people to fill up their seats.
Market forces will dictate things, as ever.
The combination of some factors such as: slow recover to pre Sep11 traffic, massive retirement forecasts, the amazing Mid East and Asia expansion and more will turn 10,000 plus hours coupled with good PIC jet airline hours a valuable asset again sooner than expected.
Take this into account before leaving your present job for what seems a greener pasture now.
Things will improve as employers will (and are in ) badly need qualified people to fill up their seats.
Market forces will dictate things, as ever.
Last edited by fullforward; 22nd Jul 2004 at 01:50.
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Your Outlook
Josh,
Depends how quick you get out - but between now and 8 years time I think youre parents couldn't have planned it better!
;-P
Just remember, at the end of the training line when you start job hunting, some positions may seem ultimately desirable...but bear caution, as nowadays companies are making their employees bend so low the benefits arent worth the financial effort...there are cases nowadays where employment in some shops will be your own ruin...
Bear that in mind in the future, but don't worry - hopefully this is a trend that will only pass by the time your gleaming ear to ear holding your brand new CPL
Depends how quick you get out - but between now and 8 years time I think youre parents couldn't have planned it better!
;-P
Just remember, at the end of the training line when you start job hunting, some positions may seem ultimately desirable...but bear caution, as nowadays companies are making their employees bend so low the benefits arent worth the financial effort...there are cases nowadays where employment in some shops will be your own ruin...
Bear that in mind in the future, but don't worry - hopefully this is a trend that will only pass by the time your gleaming ear to ear holding your brand new CPL
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Indeed, Bubba!
Remember back in late 2000 when EVERY SINGLE American carrier was looking for pilots?
It was other waves before, do the search.
We all know that there are tons of pilois on furlough now in the USA and a lot looking elsewere for a seat, until things improve back home.
Remember back in late 2000 when EVERY SINGLE American carrier was looking for pilots?
It was other waves before, do the search.
We all know that there are tons of pilois on furlough now in the USA and a lot looking elsewere for a seat, until things improve back home.
There will *never* be 'the great pilot shortage' - except for already experienced pilots with significant time on the currently in demand type.
Schools will always have greater capacity to churn out more wet-ink CPLs than there are airlines to take them. This leads to more & more inexperienced pilots accepting more of the training cost & burden eg speculative type ratings or reduced T&Cs to try to gain an advantage over the next guy.
There will always be large & unexpected downturns in the job market, as well as recovery periods where there is a more gradual period of hiring. It's these more gradual periods that tend to be rememembered as 'booms'.
In fact these recovery periods tend to be elastic. That is, the region, scope, duration & particular qualification demand is subject to more variables than is predictable.
Schools will always have greater capacity to churn out more wet-ink CPLs than there are airlines to take them. This leads to more & more inexperienced pilots accepting more of the training cost & burden eg speculative type ratings or reduced T&Cs to try to gain an advantage over the next guy.
There will always be large & unexpected downturns in the job market, as well as recovery periods where there is a more gradual period of hiring. It's these more gradual periods that tend to be rememembered as 'booms'.
In fact these recovery periods tend to be elastic. That is, the region, scope, duration & particular qualification demand is subject to more variables than is predictable.
There were more job ads in the back of the latest Flight than I can remember post 9/11. Bear in mind these companies are advertising because they are not receiving unsolicited CVs, there may be some truth in the rumour.
Tinstaafi is correct - the only shortage at the moment is for pilots of the right experience levels on major current aircraft types - Boeing, Airbus etc. There will never be a shortage of low-time dreamers with fresh Commercial licences and no more experience than endless hours on Cessnas and Pipers built in ideal weather conditions in Florida with the bare minimum twin time to get their ticket.
If you've got 3000 hours plus on 747/757/767/320/321/330/340 etc then options are available. A 737 rating, two eyes. two arms , two legs guarantees a job with low-cost carriers in Europe - Ryanair, Easyjet etc.
The 'shortage' has always been just around the corner - so has the flow of ex-military pilots who jump ahead of the kids who for some reason see airline flying as a great new career - sorry, that sounds cynical - just back from long night flight !!!!!!!!!
If you've got 3000 hours plus on 747/757/767/320/321/330/340 etc then options are available. A 737 rating, two eyes. two arms , two legs guarantees a job with low-cost carriers in Europe - Ryanair, Easyjet etc.
The 'shortage' has always been just around the corner - so has the flow of ex-military pilots who jump ahead of the kids who for some reason see airline flying as a great new career - sorry, that sounds cynical - just back from long night flight !!!!!!!!!
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Flight International is e-mailing me everyday with new vacancies. There is a very definite increase since I started receiving this information about 7 months ago.
I agree with beamer and the others about the current requirements but as people move around at the top there will be a chance for the low houred guys to get their first job. Just look at the recruiting that is going on at BACX and BMIR at the moment. Both airlines are taking on low houred guys and upwards. Flybe also took on a relatively large number earlier in the year and are currently taking people out of the hold pool so it is possible they will be recruiting again as they lose their more experienced pilots.
hi5
I agree with beamer and the others about the current requirements but as people move around at the top there will be a chance for the low houred guys to get their first job. Just look at the recruiting that is going on at BACX and BMIR at the moment. Both airlines are taking on low houred guys and upwards. Flybe also took on a relatively large number earlier in the year and are currently taking people out of the hold pool so it is possible they will be recruiting again as they lose their more experienced pilots.
hi5
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Josh,
Read all the posts and become as informed as you possibly can. A lot of good info is contained herein. But DO NOT let the naysayers sway you from what you want to become. If flying is you're goal, then pursue it with all that you have. YOU WILL NEVER GET WHAT YOU WANT IF YOU DON"T GIVE IT ALL YOU HAVE
There are a VERY FEW individuals who will never be happy or satisfied with what they have. That is not to say one should not strive to better their position, however, it seems that a select few want to spread discontent throughout these pages. DO NOT LISTEN to them!!!!!!!!!!!!
Now is a GREAT time to start. Go fly, get all your ratings, and start knocking on doors. They will open if you are persistant enough. IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN IF YOU DON'T TRY. I think the industry is headed for a TREMENDOUS upswing in the next 10 to 15 years and you will be right there to take advantage of it.
Good luck to you and may your aviation career be rewarding and sastifying
330
Read all the posts and become as informed as you possibly can. A lot of good info is contained herein. But DO NOT let the naysayers sway you from what you want to become. If flying is you're goal, then pursue it with all that you have. YOU WILL NEVER GET WHAT YOU WANT IF YOU DON"T GIVE IT ALL YOU HAVE
There are a VERY FEW individuals who will never be happy or satisfied with what they have. That is not to say one should not strive to better their position, however, it seems that a select few want to spread discontent throughout these pages. DO NOT LISTEN to them!!!!!!!!!!!!
Now is a GREAT time to start. Go fly, get all your ratings, and start knocking on doors. They will open if you are persistant enough. IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN IF YOU DON'T TRY. I think the industry is headed for a TREMENDOUS upswing in the next 10 to 15 years and you will be right there to take advantage of it.
Good luck to you and may your aviation career be rewarding and sastifying
330
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Josh,
330 is correct. Don't let the negative ones get to you. This is a great job and don't let anyone tell you otherwise. We get the most privileged view of the world there is, apart from those lucky ones who get to go into space.
Sure, there are days when we feel fed up with life and the work is harder now than years ago, but it still beats Monday to Friday in some dreary office. Yes, you will earn far more as a doctor or lawyer or builder but that's not everything. You will be in the top 15% of salary earners and if, as seems likely from your post, you love your job, then going to work will not be a chore most days.
If you want it, go for it young man and pursue your dream. And I for one, would like to wish you the very best of luck in your search.
330 is correct. Don't let the negative ones get to you. This is a great job and don't let anyone tell you otherwise. We get the most privileged view of the world there is, apart from those lucky ones who get to go into space.
Sure, there are days when we feel fed up with life and the work is harder now than years ago, but it still beats Monday to Friday in some dreary office. Yes, you will earn far more as a doctor or lawyer or builder but that's not everything. You will be in the top 15% of salary earners and if, as seems likely from your post, you love your job, then going to work will not be a chore most days.
If you want it, go for it young man and pursue your dream. And I for one, would like to wish you the very best of luck in your search.
And of course Ray Webster and Michael O Leary are both saying there is going to be 'a bloodbath' this winter and that many airlines will have to go to the wall. Various airlines teeter on the brink of financial oblivion or industrial action and just a single terrorist attrocity anywhere near an aircraft will put everyone back 3 years.
In the meantime there remains around 2,000 qualified pilots hunting for their first job in the UK.
Things are certainly picking up. But I wouldn't go betting mum and dads mortgage on it quite yet..
Cheers
WWW
In the meantime there remains around 2,000 qualified pilots hunting for their first job in the UK.
Things are certainly picking up. But I wouldn't go betting mum and dads mortgage on it quite yet..
Cheers
WWW
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There will never ever be a Pilot shortage in the UK because the jobs are available to all those in the 25 countries of the EU and Iceland and Norway and all those from the colonies who can come up with an EU Passport plus other various odds and sods married to UK citizens.
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I agree. I can't see any sign of a pilot shortage out there. Maybe a lack of type-rated, experienced and available guys perhaps but certainly no pilot shortage.
As WWW says there are 2,000 odd unemployed guys in the UK alone, the flood gates have opened for others into this country, the RAF have just been told yesterday they are cutting back further, many large American carriers are staring into the abyss and there's the risk Al Qaeda will decimate the industry again at any time.
Read page 24 of the Ryanair thread "A call to arms." £9,900 per annum for new F/Os doesn't sound like a pilot shortage to me. The market operates on supply and demand and pay rises across the industry are hardly racing ahead.
Pilot Shortage ? DREAM ON !!!!!
As WWW says there are 2,000 odd unemployed guys in the UK alone, the flood gates have opened for others into this country, the RAF have just been told yesterday they are cutting back further, many large American carriers are staring into the abyss and there's the risk Al Qaeda will decimate the industry again at any time.
Read page 24 of the Ryanair thread "A call to arms." £9,900 per annum for new F/Os doesn't sound like a pilot shortage to me. The market operates on supply and demand and pay rises across the industry are hardly racing ahead.
Pilot Shortage ? DREAM ON !!!!!
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Pilot Shortage....do you believe in myths?
fullforward: "...Massive retirement forecasts!"
Do you actually believe that the training of new pilots has somehow magically slowed and that there won't be enough qualified pilots in the future? Dream on. The competition for jet jobs is extreme, mainly because new pilots are able to buy, and are buying, more affordable jet type ratings than ever before.
Do you actually believe that the training of new pilots has somehow magically slowed and that there won't be enough qualified pilots in the future? Dream on. The competition for jet jobs is extreme, mainly because new pilots are able to buy, and are buying, more affordable jet type ratings than ever before.
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A lot of very short memories here.
If you can remember back to 1989, you may remember how airlines were hiring anybody with a licence and a pulse. Even BA was taking some very un-qualified folk as DE pilots - one guy, who I knew quite well, got in despite failing his IR three times. I ended up going to Loganair (back when it was a larger airline), because they offered to pay for my Instrument Rating. I had 695 hours at the time. Many airlines, such as Loganair, BMI, and one or two others were actively recruiting in Canada, Australia and New Zealand - as in sending the chief pilot out to actively find people.
People were joining the likes of Jersey European (as they were then), doing a few months in the right seat of a Bandeirante, then going straight onto the 757 at Air Europe with only 800-900 hours total time.
The day I joined Loganair, I commented to our groundschool instructor that the company must be pleased to have us, as the six of us should solve the staffing problems. He laughed as he informed me that Loganair had received 23 resignations the week before, with 6 guys leaving at the end of that week - forget three months notice. It was about this time that bonds became common.
Airlines were poaching pilots left, right and centre, many airlines (such as Air Europe) were offering to pay off bonds if people would leave their previous employer with little or no notice. How do I know? Well, I still have the letter with the offer on it.
The flying schools weren't even close to keeping up, and the CAA was so far behind in flight testing that if you stuffed up your IR or GFTs, you had a three month wait for a re-sit - mainly because the FTOs had accepted airline offers with large incentives attached. Many schools were unable to offer test slots for up to 12 months ahead.
Yes, it was a wild old time. It had been predicted, but when push came to shove, there was a very serious shortage indeed. It could easily happen again.
Ask anybody who got their first job around 1989...
If you can remember back to 1989, you may remember how airlines were hiring anybody with a licence and a pulse. Even BA was taking some very un-qualified folk as DE pilots - one guy, who I knew quite well, got in despite failing his IR three times. I ended up going to Loganair (back when it was a larger airline), because they offered to pay for my Instrument Rating. I had 695 hours at the time. Many airlines, such as Loganair, BMI, and one or two others were actively recruiting in Canada, Australia and New Zealand - as in sending the chief pilot out to actively find people.
People were joining the likes of Jersey European (as they were then), doing a few months in the right seat of a Bandeirante, then going straight onto the 757 at Air Europe with only 800-900 hours total time.
The day I joined Loganair, I commented to our groundschool instructor that the company must be pleased to have us, as the six of us should solve the staffing problems. He laughed as he informed me that Loganair had received 23 resignations the week before, with 6 guys leaving at the end of that week - forget three months notice. It was about this time that bonds became common.
Airlines were poaching pilots left, right and centre, many airlines (such as Air Europe) were offering to pay off bonds if people would leave their previous employer with little or no notice. How do I know? Well, I still have the letter with the offer on it.
The flying schools weren't even close to keeping up, and the CAA was so far behind in flight testing that if you stuffed up your IR or GFTs, you had a three month wait for a re-sit - mainly because the FTOs had accepted airline offers with large incentives attached. Many schools were unable to offer test slots for up to 12 months ahead.
Yes, it was a wild old time. It had been predicted, but when push came to shove, there was a very serious shortage indeed. It could easily happen again.
Ask anybody who got their first job around 1989...
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Pilot shortage
Yes dear "thegypsy". Jobs in those 25 countries as well as Iceland and Norway are also available to UK passport holders. I don't even want to start counting how many Brits we have flying for us and not based in UK. It's not a one way street you know.
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