North Wales Police have scheduled a press conference at 12:00 local

Wreckage now confirmed found by police

No survivors

Roads closed around Trawsfynydd lake

RIP to those lost and strength to their families & friends

Why would they not have thought 'Hang on the weather looks a bit sh*t, lets route round the North coast instead of through the mountains'?

RIP

The aircraft I believe was equipped for IFR, whether the aircraft MEL met with IFR is another matter. likewise the pilot would need to be qualified for IFR flight.

If would difficult to understand why someone would plan a direct track from LTN to Dublin, based on the TAFs and Actuals, assuming that a direct track was flown under VFR, even under IFR I'm not sure I would plan flight over a mountain range due to the turbulance.

Even Valley was not really a viable diversion had they needed it, VFR or IFR. I hope this is not another case of rotary wing aircraft taking a short cut through a mountainous terrain under VFR and below MSA. Even a VFR flight routing via WAL and along the North Welsh coast I have doubts about under VFR, especially with the number of wind turbines to negotiate and the weather at Anglesey.

And to add, following the sad news, the crash site is consistant with from memory a east west low level routing via Bala and Trawsfynydd, to the north the Snowden range up to about 3500ft and to the south Cadir Idris area up to about 2900 ft. So under IFR they would have needed at least 4500 ft.

Solent........ The point that crab was making that under VFR why would you not route to the North Coast in the even of poor weather en route or alternatively why would anyone plan such a VFR flight based on the TAFs and Actuals, if it was a VFR flight.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-39445384

Crab, so you know for certain the aircraft couldn't possibly have had a technical fault that could be issue?

Five people killed in helicopter crash in Snowdonia - BBC News

A mountain rescue team found the wreckage in the Rhinog mountains between Trawsfynydd and Harlech.

I think the statistics would show the overwhelming majority of helicopter crashes in bad weather are caused by bad weather, and not a technical fault with the helicopter. Until the accident investigation determines the cause, anything is possible.

If radar contact was lost over Caernarfon Bay on a Luton - Dublin flight presumably they must have turned back if wreckage found in the Rhinogs.

Lake Vyrnwy, 360 m amsl and around 30 km southeast of the location of the wreckage, had 7/8 cloud cover at 300 ft at 4 pm yesterday, visibility 1.7 km.

AAXX 29154 03410 46217 /2013 10111 20110 39732 40162 57007 333 55300 20191 87/03

Be surprised if this twin Squirrel was IFR - it was an F1 wasn't it? With 2400kg MTOW, 5 POB and fuel to do 225nm into a headwind I'd have thought they wouldn't have had the payload in an IFR acft. Unless it refuelled, but then no mention of that.

Assuming VFR flight, have to agree with Crab, routing north via Colwyn Bay would have been logical given the wx. Suspect even with a VFR ship weight was tight hence maybe choosing most direct route. A refuel at Caernarfon might have solved both issues.

Very sad indeed, RIP.

Puzzling if they turned back and then proceded across the mountains in what have been poor conditions when the normally very visible airfield at Llanbedr is on the foreshore just three miles south of Harlech.

Rotorspeed;

She was equipped for IFR when I flew her (Garmin 430s and full SFIM autopilot) However, your question about the pax/fuel load is very pertinent. I once flew her 2 up from Troyes to Elstree non-stop. And Stansted-Dublin IFR solo. But like all middle aged ladies she had gained a bit of weight. 5 up with reserves may have been a bit of a push. I can't remember the exact numbers as I haven't flown a 355 for about 10 years and this particular one since 2004.

SND

Perhaps, and this is pure speculation of course, they did turn back and they were trying to find somewhere safe to put down when the weather closed in on them

The area is notorious for weather closing in on you unexpectedly and quickly and if the pilot was not comfortable or qualified to fly IFR then logic suggests that he or she will have tried to find a safe landing somewhere nearby with a view to waiting out the weather

The media have named the owners, the husband is a qualified helicopter pilot (although level of qualification not stated as yet), the neighbours have confirmed that they are away and that the wife is Irish and they have flown to Ireland many times in the past...all tends to suggest that they were aboard, subject to confirmation...if it is them and they have been regular flyers to Dublin, they probably used the same route many times and felt safe using it again this time

Its very very sad......one hopes that they did not suffer as being stranded on the side of a mountain overnight if badly hurt and not being found in time does not bear thinking about, especially for family & friends left behind

The Guardian newspaper report has now posthumously upgraded Colin McRae's machine from an AS350B2 to an AS355 so that they could refer to it in their story

depends on which side of rhinog fach he was, is it possible that in poor viz he mistook trawfynydd lake for the sea, and though it safe to continue at low level, all guesswork of course, condolences to all concerned.

Yet one more persuasive argument for some kind of satellite tracking. Would have quickened response time to initiate search and would have been found sooner. ADS-B won't do it down low in mountains. Look at the search resources that had to be spread out over a large area due to the uncertainty. Amazing the blind faith put into something as unreliable as an ELT simply because in its day it was the best that technology could offer.

I learned to fly at Welshpool, so Snowdonia was home territory and I used to know that area well. So a few thoughts...

Routing via the North coast makes perfect sense, or there's also a road and railway line following the valley from Welshpool to Aberystwyth; I took that route home from Caernarfon once when the weather closed in - easy to follow even in poor vis.
Refuelling possible at Caernarfon, Welshpool, possibly Llanbedr, whichever direction you're going in.
Llyn Trawsfynydd is tiny; I can't see anyone thinking it was the sea...but maybe, if the vis is really bad....
Wx can change scarily quickly in those mountains....

Aircraft have taken days or weeks to find in British mountains in recent times.

I would say that the ELT approach needs a wee bit of an update. MEOSAR will help but the fitting, maintenance and operation of the devices obviously needs some looking at. I am fairly sure we can get more reliable performance from ELT than has been seen so far by systematically looking in detail at where the system fails to provide a fix and address the problems.

It is also worth saying that although satellites system often seem like the ultimate solution, they are notoriously fickle. They use ridiculously small signals and a lot of things can go wrong.

With 5 nominally 77kg pax, their baggage and 200 gallons or so of fuel the AC would have been on the heavy side leaving Luton. With roughly 100 (mostly over water) miles still to go and poor weather, they may well have reconsidered (especially if vfr) and decided to land somewhere, refuel and/ or wait for better conditions. As someone mentioned earlier weather is very likely to have played some part in this - but as always - we don't know yet - the actual causes not always the most statistically likely ones

OK......a few questions, hopefully not all silly ones, I'm just curious

On a flight like the one planned, how much ATC involvement would there have been?

Apparently there were no mayday calls...but wouldn't there have been discussions with Llanbedr or Valley or somewhere along that part of the flightplan...discussions about the weather, if it was as bad on one side of the mountains than where they were...what the situation was for a diversion or permission for divert....???

Radar contact lost at 16:15 yesterday...but what about radio contact...when did they stop communications and who was the last ones to have spoken to the pilot, what was said, did the weather enter the discussions??

Very little has been released about the RT...surely they spoke to someone, somewhere??

This report suggests that last August was a deadline. (There may be updates).
https://www.flyer.co.uk/elt-or-plb-b...t-from-august/

Why is it when something like this happens you all turn into experts all of a sudden!! Let the professionals handle it and stop speculating!

Thoughts to the families involved

It staggers me we continue to have faith in the PLB/ELT/EPIRB. Aircraft are stuffed with them but more often than not they fail to activate or be activated.

Duty of care of the ad hoc operator is to provide flight following until destination reached. This can be done on a smart phone nowadays. An ELT signals bounces around the globe via telephone lists and may eventually start a trawl and search if the records are up to date, if the aircraft is carrying the correct complement.

A satellite tracker IS reliable .... a simple burst transmission of lat and long every 3 mins or so, not a 2 minute conversation. It works. It provides a track; if the flight stops abruptly at least you have a point within 3 minutes of where it probably is located. You can see if they turned back due to weather, it's blindingly obvious.

A flight follower would have realized where the aircraft was yesterday and reduced the uncertainty and time wasted for search and rescue crews.

Have only read that the aircraft was lost from radar, I would assume at low level this would happen between Welshpool and Bala. Upon reaching on a westerly track, Rhinog Fawr is is 700 metres AMSL, and flying west from Trawsfynydd at 229 metres AMSL, the terrain goes op to 366 metres AMSL, this is serious mountain territory. Valley is 10 metres AMSL, at with a reported clouse base of 300 ft at the time. Not sure if I agree Trawsfynydd was mistaken for the sea as someone pointed out is is quite small and does not has a coastal look.

Was the aircraft ever picked up on radar over the sea, and even if it ever made it over the sea, would anyone turn back into mountains, the sensible thing to do would have been to continue west and request VDF QDMs or radar headings from RAF valley once clear of the Phwelli penisulla divert into RAF valley below 300ft, ATC would probly able to advise when it was safe to turn right onto a northely heading.

What I do not understand as there seems a different thinking in some rotary wing pilots compared to fixed wing regading MSA and low level flying. I think this is based on the fact that some rotary wing pilots think in the back of their mind, "well if it gets bad, I can land on a field", that certainly would have been an option Welshpool. Bala and Trawsfynydd which would have had playing fields, and there is an abundance of B&B's and country hotels, welsh hospitality and lamb suppers. My second thought is that the second thought patterm may be, "if the weather gets bad, I'll do a 180 turn and fly back out of the valley. Interestingly rarely are of these options are available to a fixed wing pilot. Once you enter valley in less that optimal conditions you are committed. My other difficulty it that how rapidly mountain weather can change, in a variety of ways, I've seen rolling fog form below me while walkingon the fells in the lakes in less that twenty minutes.

The RAF Chinook accident, from Belfast to Inverness, which flew into the Mull of Kintyre with very important passengers, in poor weather, why had they not planned to climb to MSA upon poor weather? Likewise the rotary wing accident in London, where the aircraft flew into a crane on top of a tower block, the pilot is poor weather, and thinks 100ft clearance over a high building is acceptable, worse still he was using his mobile, for which I do not think the AAIB stated was a factor or was wrong.

While I do not want to single out helicopter pilots for CFIT in poor weather, I recall an fixed wing accident, two private pilot's flying from the midlands to Blackpool in a C152, while over Staffordshire or Cheshire, they inadvertantly entered IMC, they did not hold IMC ratings, while intially they were as I recall working Manchester, they apparently decided to head due west and descend over the sea. Two problems, they would need to stay south of the Liverpool and Manchester Zones, but north of Snowdonia, end result they impacted with Tryfan at about 2700 ft with fatal results.

At the time the CAA Flight Handling Test (GFT) required to demonsrate inadvent entry in to cloud, but not having failed to resume VFR, immediate climb to MSA, declare emergency and radar vectors to a descent in a safe (metwise) area. This was a failure by CAA standards.

Totally disagree. Everybody here has deep sympathy with the families. It's these discussions read by the community, that hopefully plants enough seeds in enough minds to consider that ' lets cancel today ' may be the most prudent option next time. This accident looks like bad weather is a factor and is nearly always the most common denominator in fatals.

Helifat ... Could it be some of us are experts in our own field. I understand your concerns about speculation, especially as I understand six children have now lost parents, but putting asside the AAIB report, the discussion on here could actually make a change in the future.

Sir Korsky, I agree if it was VFR, and I think a type rated pilot (expert) has already stated the aircraft performance, the aircraft and pilot, would not be able to maintain IFR or MSA.

I speculated that this would be CFIT either side of a low level corridor, was my speculation right or wrong?

I'm a fixed wing pilot (C182) and flew into Caenarfon at the weekend. Despite the cavok conditions I almost got caught out by the rotor in the lee of the Snowdonian range (1000fpm down + very turbulent).
I note from the Valley metars that there was a brisk (20kt+) north-easterly wind on the day of the accident . Do helicopters cope well with turbulent conditions?
G-XLTG

@Homsap:
Without wishing to divert from the current thread. ZD576 has too many unknowns to be a good example. But in short they couldn't because MSA was outside the then icing clearance.
EG

Victims identified
Businessman from Manchester and his family are victims of Snowdonia helicopter crash tragedy - Manchester Evening News

EXGrunt......Thank you for pointing that out, what would there limitation in terms of icing levels on that day? I accept there may have been tactical considerations based on the PAX, that I will never know. but a C130 or civilan charter might have been better based on your icing limitations comments.

Maybe more obvious: Why would they not have thought 'Hang on the weather looks a bit sh*t, lets hop on a Ryanair instead of through the mountains'? Or maybe charter a bizjet if they don't want to wait in line to sit with the peasants? After all they wanted to fly from Luton to Dublin! Both parents fly their helicopter into questionable weather without the need to do so, children sitting at home. These are the kind of decisions I don't understand. :(

Before they identified the people involved, I had in my mind (when they said businessman) someone in their mid-fifties with a PPL and his own helicopter as someone who might think taking that route with such a poor forecast and few options would be an acceptable course of action.

Sadly I seem to have been proven right and it looks (with a very small percentage of another cause) like another CFIT in poor weather in a private helicopter....How may more before people take notice and learn from others mistakes???

Here are the real victims. I hope this never happens to any of you again.

Im pretty sure they didn't sit there and think, hmm the weather is cr@p lets go for it and try not hit anything on the way.

I think the issue is the level of knowledge of a PPL and the misunderstanding or lack of comprehension of the risks involved in IMC flight above or below MEA (obviously not advocating flight below MEA IMC!), especially without an IR. Even if they have done the whole '5 minutes of inadvertent fight into IMC' on the PPL LST.

I've been the PPL, I can appreciate the knowledge gap and the feeling that it will be ok, what can go wrong, ive got my garmin! It really wont be ok... there's a lot to learn.

RIP guys, a sad loss.

Sirkorsy and Crab.......

Well said. there needs to be a change in the culture 'in pressing on' for PPL (H) rotary wing pilots in poor weather.

I'm sure the majority of people on here have thousands of hours under their belts, and then question the actions of a PPL

A PPL is 45 hours, it really is nothing at all, we forget the lack of experience gained in those hours, yet the freedom of the skies is given.

The owner has been flying since 2000, and has high experience.
I have no idea whether he was the one actually flying yesterday

RIP. I was thinking of the Matthew Harding crash in 97 and remembered that was an overwhelmed pilot, changing weather,I think not qualified for IR and it was suggested he was under commercial pressure. Not suggesting the same here, but with no call makes me wonder.

The PPL also has the freedom of the ground! No-go decision made real easy if you don't have to justify it in front of paying customers or employers...
I don't know about you but I've been overly suspicious about the weather from day one of flying.
And we are not talking about a 20yo happy-go-lucky thrill-seeker here. We are talking about two parents taking an unnecessary risk to leave their children as double orphans in an instance.
If they took that risk without being at least partially aware of it then they didn't do their homework. Not as a pilot and not as a parent, period.
NO understanding whatsoever!

Forgot to add: The fact that they took three more parents along for their ambitious ride certainly doesn't make it any better.