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Training during this pandemic

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Training during this pandemic

Old 10th Jun 2020, 10:43
  #21 (permalink)  
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Hi Radgirl,

Thanks for whatever your efforts and involvement have been, everyone apreciates this, It sounds like you are quite immersed in it.
Maybe too much to be objective.

"The incidence has been 1 in 850 in the UK but varies between regions. The death rate depends on age but is 1-2%. The chance of catching it in an enclosed space, inches apart for an hour, approaches 1"

Incidence rate. To say is "has been" isn't now. Now its much less. The Oxford team testing vaccines on a sample of 10000 can't get results at that small sample size, because not enough people will be 'exposed'.
Most people who have it know they have it and they are self isolating, not taking helicopter lessons.
So the 1 in 5000 is a pessimistic estimate for now.
That can be reduced a little by asking a few questions, like
How do you feel?
Do you know anyone that has or has had Covid?
Have you had it?
My estimate of probability that a helicopter student who has been asked these questions is a live asyptomatic carrier is less than 1 in 10,000 right now. Possibly as little as 3 in 100,000.

Death rate 1%-2%. that's a little naughty too. Very few obese, 80 year old, asthmatic, immuno supressed Bangladeshis are training in helicopters. T'aint right to use the figure that includes them.
For sub 30 year olds its more like 1 in 1000 almost certainly less that that because death rates are against reported and tested positive, many will have symptoms so mild that they will not appear in the denominator.

There is certainly no case at all for preventing one person who has had it teaching another that has had it, is there?

Now I understand that there is an occasional strategy to minimise R0 and that exaggerating the risk is part of that campaign. So perhaps exaggeration is useful for that. I understand the idea that preventing spread is to protect vulnerables.

I am not criticising anybody's attempts at strategy.
But in aviation we have to 'stay grounded' in the fact based world, avoid hysteria, stay alert and go flying!
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Old 10th Jun 2020, 12:58
  #22 (permalink)  
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The good news AnFI is that if we dont get a resurgence we may be able to reopen soon. I totally agree that the risk TO a fit 20 year old student is approaching zilch, although somewhat higher to certain instructors I also think that we could take lessons from some HEMS operations that have adapted reusable P3 masks putting mics inside so they can be worn whenever in the cab. Together with good handwashing and aircraft cleaning or resting it would get us training or refreshing again before we all forget what to pull and push.....

But I am afraid the government figures for incidence were 0.11% last week in the general population and much higher in hospitals, care homes and some other areas. I dont totally trust them but you cant just lop off a zero with no evidence - the vaccine testing issue is because they need someone who has not been infected to become infected in the next week or so and that would have been difficult even at the peak because you cant knowingly infect them. Equally the majority of healthy / young people (ie the students) never have symptoms, and the 3 question questionnaire is worse still as a filter. In our hospital studies with 15% of staff antibody positive, less than 3% recall any symptoms!

I would support an antibody positive instructor teaching an antibody positive student, but the government is understandably terrified of allowing immunity certificates.

We share your frustration!
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Old 10th Jun 2020, 13:49
  #23 (permalink)  
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This study indicates that CV19 was brought into UK over 1,300 times, mostly in the period 28 Feb to 29 March. Most infections came into UK from Spain, then Frances, etc. Almost no infection came in from China.

Events like the football match at Anfield (3,000 came in from Spain to watch) had negligible effect (about 20,000 people came in from Spain each day in March, aside from those football spectators).

This suggests to me that the current requirement for quarantine on arrival into the UK should have been started then, when we had little infection in the UK. I don't see the logic in having those restrictions now.
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Old 10th Jun 2020, 17:14
  #24 (permalink)  
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In the spirit of providing options for some - potentially only useful if you wear an Alpha helmet in your helicopter/aircraft - which possibly won't be the majority of readers?
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Old 10th Jun 2020, 17:58
  #25 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by bill2b
Red Arrows have been training for weeks now
And while their aircraft don't "social distance", they are solo inside each aircraft and thus OK, right?

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Old 11th Jun 2020, 12:46
  #26 (permalink)  
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JohnR81 - that is a very interesting study and highlights the error in the Govt position - based on scientific advice allegedly - that stopping international travel would have had a negligible effect at that time.
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Old 10th Jul 2020, 11:05
  #27 (permalink)  
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So back on thread, and now other flight training organisations have resumed flying in line with government regulations can anyone explain how the companies in Leicester and say Newquay were back training long before everyone else?
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