Sheer Bad Luck
Thread Starter
Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 84
Likes: 0
From: Galway
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 3,670
Likes: 1
From: UK
Here is the thread
Pauk Hanannt saying it was "sheer bad luck", WTF?? [Whats an ex senior investigator doing by being subjective about an AAIB report anyway?
It is simple unadulterated poor airmanship - nothing more, nothing less. He killed half his entire family because he pushed his luck not because of bad luck. He wasn't qualified to be where he was when he was.
Bad luck - bad luck is getting to his destination late because he had to land because of the weather. That's bad luck FFS.
Pauk Hanannt saying it was "sheer bad luck", WTF?? [Whats an ex senior investigator doing by being subjective about an AAIB report anyway?
It is simple unadulterated poor airmanship - nothing more, nothing less. He killed half his entire family because he pushed his luck not because of bad luck. He wasn't qualified to be where he was when he was.
Bad luck - bad luck is getting to his destination late because he had to land because of the weather. That's bad luck FFS.
Early days and it is PPRuNe....
I was first on scene in the police helicopter when we found the wreckage of a FW that had stoofed just shy of the summit in this vicinity in Snowdon. The driver had bought the farm but there was one survivor who we airlifted to hospital. He recalled much later on stating that the pilot had worked out his MSA based on the leg he should have taken but was 'put off' by the bad weather in the area and deviated slightly but still used the MSA he had planned on. He hit just shy of the summit by 200 feet - CFIT.
I suspect (based on experience) that when the words PPL holder and IMC are thrown into the mix - it eventually forms the last two holes in the swiss cheese model.
Pilots who go inadvertent IMC who DO NOT have a current IMC rating WITH recent currency, are committing potential suicide.
If he was current and qualified - it could well have been miscalc of MSA / heading, or of course the rare issue of mechanical problem(s).
My money is on inadvertent IMC with a PPL attached.
RiP guys.
Next...........................
I was first on scene in the police helicopter when we found the wreckage of a FW that had stoofed just shy of the summit in this vicinity in Snowdon. The driver had bought the farm but there was one survivor who we airlifted to hospital. He recalled much later on stating that the pilot had worked out his MSA based on the leg he should have taken but was 'put off' by the bad weather in the area and deviated slightly but still used the MSA he had planned on. He hit just shy of the summit by 200 feet - CFIT.
I suspect (based on experience) that when the words PPL holder and IMC are thrown into the mix - it eventually forms the last two holes in the swiss cheese model.
Pilots who go inadvertent IMC who DO NOT have a current IMC rating WITH recent currency, are committing potential suicide.
If he was current and qualified - it could well have been miscalc of MSA / heading, or of course the rare issue of mechanical problem(s).
My money is on inadvertent IMC with a PPL attached.
RiP guys.
Next...........................
Joined: Oct 1999
Aviation Qualifications: ATPL
Posts: 7,371
Likes: 926
From: Den Haag
Pauk Hanannt saying it was "sheer bad luck", WTF?? [Whats an ex senior investigator doing by being subjective about an AAIB report anyway?
It is simple unadulterated poor airmanship - nothing more, nothing less. He killed half his entire family because he pushed his luck not because of bad luck. He wasn't qualified to be where he was when he was.
It is simple unadulterated poor airmanship - nothing more, nothing less. He killed half his entire family because he pushed his luck not because of bad luck. He wasn't qualified to be where he was when he was.
In conclusion, HM Senior Coroner for North West Wales, Dewi Pritchard Jones, said Mr Burke's training and licence was for flying in conditions where he was able to see the terrain and that "ideally" he should have turned back in the thick cloud.
He pointed out that near Trawsfynydd there was an area of "relatively flattish land" and said: "Had he seen that through the cloud I am certain that would have given him the false confidence that he was at a good and safe height above ground level.
"Unfortunately, Rhinog Fawr is not a mountain that gradually increases in height. It is more a series of walls of steep ridges and rocks.
"My belief is that his instruments would not have given him much warning of the ridges.
"Being at the height he was, it was inevitable he would hit that ridge. It led to the complete destruction of the aircraft.
Recording verdicts of misadventure for all five deceased, he said: "Here we have a situation of sheer bad luck. This aircraft was not greatly below its safe height. It just clipped the mountainside."
"Unfortunately, Rhinog Fawr is not a mountain that gradually increases in height. It is more a series of walls of steep ridges and rocks.
"My belief is that his instruments would not have given him much warning of the ridges.
"Being at the height he was, it was inevitable he would hit that ridge. It led to the complete destruction of the aircraft.
Recording verdicts of misadventure for all five deceased, he said: "Here we have a situation of sheer bad luck. This aircraft was not greatly below its safe height. It just clipped the mountainside."
Joined: Jul 2000
Posts: 1,735
Likes: 21
From: Used to be God's own County
Joined: Feb 2014
Posts: 109
Likes: 0
From: Location, location - is very important when buying a house.
Joined: Apr 2000
Aviation Qualifications: ATP+Mil
Posts: 10,959
Likes: 1,814
From: EGDC
TC has it right - this wasn't bad luck but pressonitis - the weather was forecast to be poor between his points of departure and landing but he cracked on, over very hostile terrain and into poor weather.
It would have been so easy to go around rather than through Snowdonia or just turn round - but he knew better......................................
It would have been so easy to go around rather than through Snowdonia or just turn round - but he knew better......................................
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 2,817
Likes: 1
From: Hotel Gypsy
It was also sheer bad luck the he lifted out of J13 5-up and full fuel; that'll be 150kgs of bad luck. 
Most pilots who thump into hills in cloud aren't unlucky. This chap falls into the 'most' category.
Most pilots who thump into hills in cloud aren't unlucky. This chap falls into the 'most' category.
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 1,184
Likes: 541
From: Lost again...
I suppose if you are "Only a little bit below safety altitude" then you only get a little bit killed?
For a coroner to describe that as "bad luck" is bordering on misconduct IMHO!
One man's bad luck is another man's egregious negligence.
For a coroner to describe that as "bad luck" is bordering on misconduct IMHO!
One man's bad luck is another man's egregious negligence.
Joined: May 2002
Aviation Qualifications: ATP+Mil
Posts: 18,633
Likes: 1,072
From: Downeast
Bad Luck....errrr....perhaps not.
But...it is contagious amongst those who leave us early.
Smart Pilot - Flying the Alaska Highway...VFR?
But...it is contagious amongst those who leave us early.
Smart Pilot - Flying the Alaska Highway...VFR?
Joined: Dec 2001
Aviation Qualifications: ATPL
Posts: 3,759
Likes: 424
From: GA, USA
I'm taking several things from the linked article:
That shows an attitude problem.
Unfortunate is that successful business owners rarely make successful pilots, those business decision making skills do not transfer over or rarely do.
If he'd been alone it would have been a more understandable decision to press on. In the company and being responsible for unsuspecting passengers, family members even, that shows me that he was probably a habitual "rule" breaker.
Paid the price too.
"complex weather system" in the Snowdonia mountains
surprise party
he had consumed cocaine at some point prior to the crash
Unfortunate is that successful business owners rarely make successful pilots, those business decision making skills do not transfer over or rarely do.
If he'd been alone it would have been a more understandable decision to press on. In the company and being responsible for unsuspecting passengers, family members even, that shows me that he was probably a habitual "rule" breaker.
Paid the price too.
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 3,670
Likes: 1
From: UK
How many more will die in this way? What is it with people who display elements of wealth and/or power, that makes them think the rules don't apply to them?
I've lost track of those men (it's never women) who portray these traits killing themselves (which is fine) but why do they take so many innocent victims with them?
If ever there was a calling for compulsory human factors courses for starters - it is this and it is now!
I've lost track of those men (it's never women) who portray these traits killing themselves (which is fine) but why do they take so many innocent victims with them?
If ever there was a calling for compulsory human factors courses for starters - it is this and it is now!
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 1,184
Likes: 541
From: Lost again...
I know of more than one TRE who has ended up being cross examined about a check he'd carried out months or years before at inquests and inquiries by an aggressive barrister determined to shift the blame anywhere other than his client.
Joined: Nov 2000
Posts: 4,330
Likes: 74
From: White Waltham, Prestwick & Calgary
Yes, especially for a freelance, but it wasn't so much that as not willing to be responsible for letting someone with an attitude problem loose....
The trouble is, they behave properly on the test, then revert to the attitude.
The trouble is, they behave properly on the test, then revert to the attitude.
Joined: Jun 2016
Aviation Qualifications: CPL
Posts: 1,318
Likes: 387
From: Brantisvogan
How many more will die in this way? What is it with people who display elements of wealth and/or power, that makes them think the rules don't apply to them?
I've lost track of those men (it's never women) who portray these traits killing themselves (which is fine) but why do they take so many innocent victims with them?
If ever there was a calling for compulsory human factors courses for starters - it is this and it is now!
I've lost track of those men (it's never women) who portray these traits killing themselves (which is fine) but why do they take so many innocent victims with them?
If ever there was a calling for compulsory human factors courses for starters - it is this and it is now!
On balance there are far more lowly paid pilots that manage to remove themselves from the gene pool through acts of sheer stupidity than any risk-taking entrepreneur.
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,529
Likes: 2
From: yorkshire uk
Ahh but that doesn’t satisfy the chippy nature of some of our professional pilots on this forum !!! The argument that rich people are spoilt and arrogant etc and this makes them dangerous pilots is flimsy .... I could say that the poor , working class pilots I have met and employed have a tendency to be a bit stupid ( lack of education) and are so humble that they will not question their bosses commands . Also their accents can be difficult to understand on the radio !!!!