UK SAR 2013 privatisation: the new thread
Avoid imitations
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Wandering the FIR and cyberspace often at highly unsociable times
Posts: 14,573
Received 422 Likes
on
222 Posts
In November 2017, I posted the following elsewhere when the Bristow Group bean counter numbers did not make sense in relation to the proposed rollout on the ground.
"The key related element of the earnings presentation is the order book which for UK SAR shows 4 large rotorcraft delivered in SEPTEMBER 2019. In line with that revelation are statements about a wider deferment of capital expenditure on aircraft and the possibility of not making any money in the North Sea during some of the examined periods. ... ... Their capex deferment plan runs out to 2021 and if they can put four aircraft back two years then I suspect it is simply cheaper to pay a penalty than pay for the aircraft and pay for all the training conversion. These things don't get any cheaper as we move toward 2023, so it just gets worse and worse. The next contract probably considers contractor performance on previous contracts: black mark for not completing the promised aircraft provision."
Here we are in April 2019 and the four aircraft were transferred from Leonardo to Bristow some time ago and fleet deployment is days away from completion. Multiply that discrepancy out across the entire Bristow Group world and it turns into big bucks and big trouble.
"The key related element of the earnings presentation is the order book which for UK SAR shows 4 large rotorcraft delivered in SEPTEMBER 2019. In line with that revelation are statements about a wider deferment of capital expenditure on aircraft and the possibility of not making any money in the North Sea during some of the examined periods. ... ... Their capex deferment plan runs out to 2021 and if they can put four aircraft back two years then I suspect it is simply cheaper to pay a penalty than pay for the aircraft and pay for all the training conversion. These things don't get any cheaper as we move toward 2023, so it just gets worse and worse. The next contract probably considers contractor performance on previous contracts: black mark for not completing the promised aircraft provision."
Here we are in April 2019 and the four aircraft were transferred from Leonardo to Bristow some time ago and fleet deployment is days away from completion. Multiply that discrepancy out across the entire Bristow Group world and it turns into big bucks and big trouble.
Does anyone actually know if the UK SAR contract has produced a profit when viewed in isolation, or is it simply a case of good cashflow that greases the wheels of a bankrupt company?
isn't going to be plain sailing.
Long stop position: just return SAR to the military and remove the commercial bean counter option that will never provide a viable service without risk.
Pedro 45 in 1968!
Pedro 45 in 1968!
Wind the clock back to when I was consistently flamed on PPrune for saying privatising UKSAR was a crap idea...............
Originally Posted by [email protected]
The military are so broke and the training system so slow that it would take another 10 years to make it happen.
Wind the clock back to when I was consistently flamed on PPrune for saying privatising UKSAR was a crap idea...............
Wind the clock back to when I was consistently flamed on PPrune for saying privatising UKSAR was a crap idea...............
But as you were told meany times it's a brave new world & will be alright
Fortunately, the boys and girls on the front line are doing what they do best - just constantly let down by poor management.
Originally Posted by [email protected]
yes, that's going really well.....
Fortunately, the boys and girls on the front line are doing what they do best - just constantly let down by poor management.
Fortunately, the boys and girls on the front line are doing what they do best - just constantly let down by poor management.
Which in itself bears a striking resemblance to the military
A difficult question when viewing from the outside. Some suggest the AW189 delay may be partly supported by Leonardo but it's still quite likely the latter case is the reality up to this point. In a few months when CG151 is in place and the transition team are gone there should be a chance to make some money. It won't be huge though since a contract estimated at £2bn to £3.3bn for 14 or 15 aircraft that was awarded at £1.6bn after revising to 22 aircraft (incumbent's bid over 20% higher!) isn't going to be plain sailing.
isn't going to be plain sailing.
With CHC as a recent bankrupt (And are they still holding the Black Spot?), and Babcock's parent worth the same two brass farthings as Bristow group, who you gonna call?
They would probably still be in the initial stages of evaluation at Boscombe....
Sadly, the 'brave new world' still has donkeys leading the lions............
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Uk
Posts: 62
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
As for Bristow Helicopters Ltd being sold off, I wouldn’t have thought that Ch 11 conditions would allow this. The whole point in being granted Ch11 by a court is that it gives the company a chance to re pay debtors, therefore the judge will look very carefully at what parts of the company make money. The other complication of course is Ch11 is purely an American thing, UK SAR is under Bristow Helicopters Ltd and SAR does not have its own AOC. All makes for interesting viewing!
I still think that as far as UK SAR is concerned there is a good chance it will just blow over. The Americans will do what they have to do. BHL will keep cashing cheques from the DfT. Keep calm and carry on. Same as the CHC Ireland experience.
But that's for THIS contract. What happens when the DfT has to renew the contract (already working on it) and nobody with the technical ability to provide the service can demonstrate the financial competence they expect?
But that's for THIS contract. What happens when the DfT has to renew the contract (already working on it) and nobody with the technical ability to provide the service can demonstrate the financial competence they expect?
It would be interesting to see how a certain individual who was at the forefront of pushing the UKSAR model, and had visions of selling it to other nations, views his business plan now...........
Whatever happens in Houston, people will still get hauled out of the waters of the Minch and off rocky ledges in Kintail. I don't think anyone in an orange suit is worried about their job.
Meanwhile, there are more worries from ex-92 aircrew at Inverness about where to put everything in a 189! I expect airframes will be shuttled around the fleet in the next few days to get a couple of low hours ones up to Inverness. (You would, wouldn't you?) A week from now we'll have a completed roll-out of the original plan. It's taken a while.
Meanwhile, there are more worries from ex-92 aircrew at Inverness about where to put everything in a 189! I expect airframes will be shuttled around the fleet in the next few days to get a couple of low hours ones up to Inverness. (You would, wouldn't you?) A week from now we'll have a completed roll-out of the original plan. It's taken a while.
Originally Posted by [email protected]
It would be interesting to see how a certain individual who was at the forefront of pushing the UKSAR model, and had visions of selling it to other nations, views his business plan now...........
As Jim says, people will keep getting rescued by the service. Nothing changes from military to civi SAR. Troops keep doing the job and continue to be baffled by either 2/3 star officers or SMT decisions. 😬