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UK SAR 2013 privatisation: the new thread

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UK SAR 2013 privatisation: the new thread

Old 19th Apr 2019, 06:39
  #2721 (permalink)  
 
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My money would be on Babcock - the company specialises in trousering UK tax receipts.
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Old 19th Apr 2019, 08:22
  #2722 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by jimf671 View Post
Fascinating. Do you understand that the British military is so short staffed and desperate that they even employ me!
We had no idea things were so bad.
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Old 19th Apr 2019, 11:06
  #2723 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by minigundiplomat View Post
My money would be on Babcock - the company specialises in trousering UK tax receipts.
The only one in the game that doesn't have an empty wallet?


Edit:

Or ....?

Last edited by jimf671; 19th Apr 2019 at 11:48.
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Old 19th Apr 2019, 11:24
  #2724 (permalink)  
 
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In November 2017, I posted the following elsewhere when the Bristow Group bean counter numbers did not make sense in relation to the proposed rollout on the ground.

"The key related element of the earnings presentation is the order book which for UK SAR shows 4 large rotorcraft delivered in SEPTEMBER 2019. In line with that revelation are statements about a wider deferment of capital expenditure on aircraft and the possibility of not making any money in the North Sea during some of the examined periods. ... ... Their capex deferment plan runs out to 2021 and if they can put four aircraft back two years then I suspect it is simply cheaper to pay a penalty than pay for the aircraft and pay for all the training conversion. These things don't get any cheaper as we move toward 2023, so it just gets worse and worse. The next contract probably considers contractor performance on previous contracts: black mark for not completing the promised aircraft provision."

Here we are in April 2019 and the four aircraft were transferred from Leonardo to Bristow some time ago and fleet deployment is days away from completion. Multiply that discrepancy out across the entire Bristow Group world and it turns into big bucks and big trouble.
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Old 19th Apr 2019, 12:32
  #2725 (permalink)  
 
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Does anyone actually know if the UK SAR contract has produced a profit when viewed in isolation, or is it simply a case of good cashflow that greases the wheels of a bankrupt company?
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Old 19th Apr 2019, 17:25
  #2726 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Apate View Post
Does anyone actually know if the UK SAR contract has produced a profit when viewed in isolation, or is it simply a case of good cashflow that greases the wheels of a bankrupt company?
A difficult question when viewing from the outside. Some suggest the AW189 delay may be partly supported by Leonardo but it's still quite likely the latter case is the reality up to this point. In a few months when CG151 is in place and the transition team are gone there should be a chance to make some money. It won't be huge though since a contract estimated at £2bn to £3.3bn for 14 or 15 aircraft that was awarded at £1.6bn after revising to 22 aircraft (incumbent's bid over 20% higher!) isn't going to be plain sailing.
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Old 19th Apr 2019, 18:09
  #2727 (permalink)  
 
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Long stop position: just return SAR to the military and remove the commercial bean counter option that will never provide a viable service without risk.
Pedro 45 in 1968!
The military are so broke and the training system so slow that it would take another 10 years to make it happen.

Wind the clock back to when I was consistently flamed on PPRuNe for saying privatising UKSAR was a crap idea...............
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Old 19th Apr 2019, 20:45
  #2728 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by [email protected] View Post
The military are so broke and the training system so slow that it would take another 10 years to make it happen.

Wind the clock back to when I was consistently flamed on PPRuNe for saying privatising UKSAR was a crap idea...............
But as you were told meany times it's a brave new world & will be alright



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Old 20th Apr 2019, 10:05
  #2729 (permalink)  
 
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But as you were told meany times it's a brave new world & will be alright
yes, that's going really well.....
Fortunately, the boys and girls on the front line are doing what they do best - just constantly let down by poor management.
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Old 20th Apr 2019, 10:09
  #2730 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by [email protected] View Post
yes, that's going really well.....
Fortunately, the boys and girls on the front line are doing what they do best - just constantly let down by poor management.
Which in itself bears a striking resemblance to the military
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Old 20th Apr 2019, 11:36
  #2731 (permalink)  
 
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Which in itself bears a striking resemblance to the military
yes, I almost put that in my previous post - didn't say the military was perfect but we could have achieved the same service if we had just been given new aircraft.
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Old 20th Apr 2019, 12:26
  #2732 (permalink)  
 
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They would probably still be in the initial stages of evaluation at Boscombe....
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Old 20th Apr 2019, 12:51
  #2733 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by jimf671 View Post
A difficult question when viewing from the outside. Some suggest the AW189 delay may be partly supported by Leonardo but it's still quite likely the latter case is the reality up to this point. In a few months when CG151 is in place and the transition team are gone there should be a chance to make some money. It won't be huge though since a contract estimated at £2bn to £3.3bn for 14 or 15 aircraft that was awarded at £1.6bn after revising to 22 aircraft (incumbent's bid over 20% higher!) isn't going to be plain sailing.
Thanks Jim. At least it should be very cash flow positive over the coming few years as the Capex will have all been covered.
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Old 20th Apr 2019, 21:28
  #2734 (permalink)  
 
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With CHC as a recent bankrupt (And are they still holding the Black Spot?), and Babcock's parent worth the same two brass farthings as Bristow group, who you gonna call?
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Old 21st Apr 2019, 06:09
  #2735 (permalink)  
 
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They would probably still be in the initial stages of evaluation at Boscombe....
Not a process that is required to utilise civil aircraft on the military register.......

Sadly, the 'brave new world' still has donkeys leading the lions............
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Old 21st Apr 2019, 10:42
  #2736 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Apate View Post
Does anyone actually know if the UK SAR contract has produced a profit when viewed in isolation, or is it simply a case of good cashflow that greases the wheels of a bankrupt company?
this is a good point. Almost certainly there is no overall profit yet, still a great contract to have and as you say positive cash flow.
As for Bristow Helicopters Ltd being sold off, I wouldn’t have thought that Ch 11 conditions would allow this. The whole point in being granted Ch11 by a court is that it gives the company a chance to re pay debtors, therefore the judge will look very carefully at what parts of the company make money. The other complication of course is Ch11 is purely an American thing, UK SAR is under Bristow Helicopters Ltd and SAR does not have its own AOC. All makes for interesting viewing!
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Old 21st Apr 2019, 13:00
  #2737 (permalink)  
 
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I still think that as far as UK SAR is concerned there is a good chance it will just blow over. The Americans will do what they have to do. BHL will keep cashing cheques from the DfT. Keep calm and carry on. Same as the CHC Ireland experience.

But that's for THIS contract. What happens when the DfT has to renew the contract (already working on it) and nobody with the technical ability to provide the service can demonstrate the financial competence they expect?
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Old 22nd Apr 2019, 07:50
  #2738 (permalink)  
 
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It would be interesting to see how a certain individual who was at the forefront of pushing the UKSAR model, and had visions of selling it to other nations, views his business plan now...........
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Old 26th Apr 2019, 01:32
  #2739 (permalink)  
 
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Whatever happens in Houston, people will still get hauled out of the waters of the Minch and off rocky ledges in Kintail. I don't think anyone in an orange suit is worried about their job.

Meanwhile, there are more worries from ex-92 aircrew at Inverness about where to put everything in a 189! I expect airframes will be shuttled around the fleet in the next few days to get a couple of low hours ones up to Inverness. (You would, wouldn't you?) A week from now we'll have a completed roll-out of the original plan. It's taken a while.

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Old 30th Apr 2019, 09:45
  #2740 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by [email protected] View Post
It would be interesting to see how a certain individual who was at the forefront of pushing the UKSAR model, and had visions of selling it to other nations, views his business plan now...........
In what way? As the total success it appears to be? Delivering the service, arguably better, on budget, despite OEM delays. Or are you suggesting he is in some way responsible for different business unit decisions that occur in Huston? That would be a like suggesting the SARF was actually a failure because of (for example) the total mismanagement of procurement in MOD.

As Jim says, people will keep getting rescued by the service. Nothing changes from military to civi SAR. Troops keep doing the job and continue to be baffled by either 2/3 star officers or SMT decisions. 😬
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