what say your cristal ball?
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what say your cristal ball?
how will be the future, how will be year 2003?.
war, no war?economic recovery for 2003.
take your cristal ball, tarot card, or read in the hand of your airline manager, and tell us what you see?
war, no war?economic recovery for 2003.
take your cristal ball, tarot card, or read in the hand of your airline manager, and tell us what you see?
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Well it all depends on Iraq! If that kicks off then we will probably see job losses and if I dare say it, a few airlines going down the tubes in the process. However if Iraq does not kick off then the current slow trend of recovery will hopefully continue!
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Do you think Iraq will make a huge difference?
I know the (original) Gulf War hit the industry very hard, but there have been quite a few conflicts since then, notably around the Balkan states.
The threat to air traffic was just as high during the Bosnia or Kosovo conflicts as it was during the Gulf War, and a lot closer to home for us Europeans, but it seemed to have little effect on the airline industry. Perhaps the travelling public are sufficiently used to 'local conflicts' not to be as upset by Gulf War 2 as they were by Gulf War 1.
Obviously the effect on oil prices is something virtually unique to Middle-East troubles, but that tends to be short-term.
There you go, whiskey-fuelled optimism for the New Year! Have a good one everyone.
I know the (original) Gulf War hit the industry very hard, but there have been quite a few conflicts since then, notably around the Balkan states.
The threat to air traffic was just as high during the Bosnia or Kosovo conflicts as it was during the Gulf War, and a lot closer to home for us Europeans, but it seemed to have little effect on the airline industry. Perhaps the travelling public are sufficiently used to 'local conflicts' not to be as upset by Gulf War 2 as they were by Gulf War 1.
Obviously the effect on oil prices is something virtually unique to Middle-East troubles, but that tends to be short-term.
There you go, whiskey-fuelled optimism for the New Year! Have a good one everyone.
Well it does seem that if the US goes to Wat then a lot of Americans stop flying. They are such a large segment of particularly lucrative passengers that certain airlines do suffer - around the globe.
There have been significant structural changes in the EU airline market so perhaps this time the effect will be lessened.
However, it is my humble opinion that war looks likely and that therefore the outlook is depressed compared to what it would otherwise be.
That said, any downturn will only make the upturn more marked. Glass half emtpy or half full etc.
Good luck,
WWW
There have been significant structural changes in the EU airline market so perhaps this time the effect will be lessened.
However, it is my humble opinion that war looks likely and that therefore the outlook is depressed compared to what it would otherwise be.
That said, any downturn will only make the upturn more marked. Glass half emtpy or half full etc.
Good luck,
WWW
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Crystal balls
Rumour has it that a US fighter will be "shot down" mid-Feb. This will allow the mad aggressor(s) to invade Iraq at around this time. The troops are currently being prepped (drugged up, mandatory leave) on this basis. The spin is that the operation will take no more than a week (!)
On the basis that the US was "attacked", I feel that once again the septics will sit around at home for another year, causing a huge impact to the industry as a whole. Thank god I work for a regional!!
Did anyone notice how exactly the madman turned the "war on terrrrr" into the war on Iraq? I thought the enemy was OBL. And can anyone quote an occasion since July '45 that a UK PM said "er, no" to a US president? I can only guess that it's a 100 year "thank you" deal for a spot of help in France.
Stu
On the basis that the US was "attacked", I feel that once again the septics will sit around at home for another year, causing a huge impact to the industry as a whole. Thank god I work for a regional!!
Did anyone notice how exactly the madman turned the "war on terrrrr" into the war on Iraq? I thought the enemy was OBL. And can anyone quote an occasion since July '45 that a UK PM said "er, no" to a US president? I can only guess that it's a 100 year "thank you" deal for a spot of help in France.
Stu
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Off topic here, but I always thought it really odd that excluding America, the two most heavily defeated axis countries after WW2, Germany and Japan have such strong economies with powerful manufacturing bases. Someone once said they got revenge via their economies and how right they were.
I hope 2003 will be a good year for the aviation industry but with storm clouds looming over Iraq who can say for sure. I'm hedging my bets by maintaining my previous non-flying career in tandem with flying, if for no other reason than it will pay the bills and allow me to live!
I hope 2003 will be a good year for the aviation industry but with storm clouds looming over Iraq who can say for sure. I'm hedging my bets by maintaining my previous non-flying career in tandem with flying, if for no other reason than it will pay the bills and allow me to live!
The war when/if it comes will have an effect on both US and UK economies. Both are on the brink of recession, the increased government borrowing will tip them over the edge, particularly if interest rates go up - which is a very likely scenario.
The only thing that has been keepin the UK economy bouyant the last few months is consumer spending - a large part fueled by people releasing equity from their over-inflated houses.
Gordon Brown has budgeted for about a billion of extra cash to pay for the war - I don't think this will be nearly enough thanks to the underfunding of the British military in recent years.
Also, don't forget that overheads for the airlines will be higher - oil prices and the cost of insurance will go up.
IMHO, War = increased Government borrowing = interest rate rise = recession = less people holidaying/travelling by air = not good news for the avaition industry.
However, lets not forget that one of the main reasons for invading Irag is for George Dubya to award lucrative deals to his Texan oil industry buddies once the war has been won. Once the Yanks have control of Iraq and its oil, prices will go down and the economies will breathe a sigh of relief, and hopefully things will get better. Thats if Moslem radicals don't go blowing up airliners, releasing chemical weapons/tactical nukes in retaliation.
It will be a very large can of worms which will be opened should world opinion not convince the Cowboy that escalating the 'War on Terrorism' by invading Iraq is a bad idea.
The only thing that has been keepin the UK economy bouyant the last few months is consumer spending - a large part fueled by people releasing equity from their over-inflated houses.
Gordon Brown has budgeted for about a billion of extra cash to pay for the war - I don't think this will be nearly enough thanks to the underfunding of the British military in recent years.
Also, don't forget that overheads for the airlines will be higher - oil prices and the cost of insurance will go up.
IMHO, War = increased Government borrowing = interest rate rise = recession = less people holidaying/travelling by air = not good news for the avaition industry.
However, lets not forget that one of the main reasons for invading Irag is for George Dubya to award lucrative deals to his Texan oil industry buddies once the war has been won. Once the Yanks have control of Iraq and its oil, prices will go down and the economies will breathe a sigh of relief, and hopefully things will get better. Thats if Moslem radicals don't go blowing up airliners, releasing chemical weapons/tactical nukes in retaliation.
It will be a very large can of worms which will be opened should world opinion not convince the Cowboy that escalating the 'War on Terrorism' by invading Iraq is a bad idea.
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In the UK in 2003
A major flying school will disappear from the scene
More airlines will start sponsoring ab-initio pilots
There will be several start-up flying schools and there will be the launch of copycat schemes following the CTC McAlpine model
There will be a significant development in the airline pilot hiring market and pilots will be split as to whether it is good or bad news
The low cost market in the UK will near saturation point and the LCCs will expand by growing across Europe
There will be a major financial scandal affecting a LCC
1 airline will go bust; 2 will announce record profits; 3 will re-brand; and 4 will declare themselves to be LCCs
On the first day of the 4th month another of those really valuable consultancies which exist just to part wannabe pilots from their cash will take off – it will be called the Pilot Interview Guide
PPRuNe will hit 70,000 registered members
Happy New Year everyone
More airlines will start sponsoring ab-initio pilots
There will be several start-up flying schools and there will be the launch of copycat schemes following the CTC McAlpine model
There will be a significant development in the airline pilot hiring market and pilots will be split as to whether it is good or bad news
The low cost market in the UK will near saturation point and the LCCs will expand by growing across Europe
There will be a major financial scandal affecting a LCC
1 airline will go bust; 2 will announce record profits; 3 will re-brand; and 4 will declare themselves to be LCCs
On the first day of the 4th month another of those really valuable consultancies which exist just to part wannabe pilots from their cash will take off – it will be called the Pilot Interview Guide
PPRuNe will hit 70,000 registered members
Happy New Year everyone
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The great anti-Christ of the Middle East (although the Middle East thinks the West is anti-Christ) will together with the army of the east, Gog and Magog (South Korea) converge on the West and Armageddon will commence. Or that is what the Christian fundies (The likes of Mr Ashcroft) of America will tell you!
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Hmmm, well considering Iraq is (possibly) creating nasty weapons due largly to European manufacturers, and considering that there is NO ONE else who can put him in his place except the USA (European states could not even contain the Balkan problem without American help), and considering that a European head of inspectors has indicated that Iraq may be up to no good (poor compliance so far)...
Dubbya seems quite justified in planning for a showdown, something the Europeans have no stomach for, nor could they with their piddly armed forces.
Now having said all this, only the UK (under Lady T) had the guts to stand up to the Falklands problem...all of the other European states would rather it seems, trade with the enemy for profit (what else is new, been going on for years and years)...
AND,
let the USA clean up the mess they have created.
For the future, the pending war (turkey shoot) with Iraq has more or less already been discounted...so very little disruption to the airline industry...short problem only.
Dubbya seems quite justified in planning for a showdown, something the Europeans have no stomach for, nor could they with their piddly armed forces.
Now having said all this, only the UK (under Lady T) had the guts to stand up to the Falklands problem...all of the other European states would rather it seems, trade with the enemy for profit (what else is new, been going on for years and years)...
AND,
let the USA clean up the mess they have created.
For the future, the pending war (turkey shoot) with Iraq has more or less already been discounted...so very little disruption to the airline industry...short problem only.
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American Experts abound
411A - right on sir!
It seems the authors above your posting are all experts on the U.S.
I find it more than ironic that the same folks who blast the news media now believe what the same media report as to what the intentions of Pres. Bush are.
It seems the authors above your posting are all experts on the U.S.
I find it more than ironic that the same folks who blast the news media now believe what the same media report as to what the intentions of Pres. Bush are.
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411A,
Remember to consider the foreigners viewpoint. In the UK we have this rather old fashioned idea that invading or attacking a sovereign state is a bad thing. As the Germans, Iraqis and Argentinians all found out. In our eyes, Bush will be doing the same. His list of reasons (which even you intersperse will "probably" and "may") can be applied to nearly every country, including the US and the UK.
Just imagine if in the cold war Russia attacked you because you had WOMD and any declaration you made about them was "not full and complete". I'm going to guess that you'd not sit back and say "fair enough".
European countries do not trade with the enemy. This is as blinkered a view as "all Americans are overweight and crass". Yes, we have come into conflict with countries with which we have previously traded (the sinking of the Sheffield by a French made missile springs to mind), but do you actually think that Europe has been trading with Iraq since they became a touch nasty? And no, we do not want the US to rescue the world with the imposition of their values.
As an aside, I find "turkey shoot" offensive. It implies that the recipients of DEATH are less than human and somewhat defenceless. Remember you are killing people. Probably lots of them. These people are still people, just as human as those in the WTC. Would you get upset if you heard OBL describe 9/11 as a "turkey shoot" (which it was)? Be honest, you'd be furious. My brother lost quite a few of his mates on your last "turkey shoot" when one of your finest twitchy fingered turkey shooters abandoned any discipline he may have had, ignored his wingman and aimed his A10 at one of our troop carriers.
God bless America. And I hope he helps us clear up the mess YOU create.
Remember to consider the foreigners viewpoint. In the UK we have this rather old fashioned idea that invading or attacking a sovereign state is a bad thing. As the Germans, Iraqis and Argentinians all found out. In our eyes, Bush will be doing the same. His list of reasons (which even you intersperse will "probably" and "may") can be applied to nearly every country, including the US and the UK.
Just imagine if in the cold war Russia attacked you because you had WOMD and any declaration you made about them was "not full and complete". I'm going to guess that you'd not sit back and say "fair enough".
European countries do not trade with the enemy. This is as blinkered a view as "all Americans are overweight and crass". Yes, we have come into conflict with countries with which we have previously traded (the sinking of the Sheffield by a French made missile springs to mind), but do you actually think that Europe has been trading with Iraq since they became a touch nasty? And no, we do not want the US to rescue the world with the imposition of their values.
As an aside, I find "turkey shoot" offensive. It implies that the recipients of DEATH are less than human and somewhat defenceless. Remember you are killing people. Probably lots of them. These people are still people, just as human as those in the WTC. Would you get upset if you heard OBL describe 9/11 as a "turkey shoot" (which it was)? Be honest, you'd be furious. My brother lost quite a few of his mates on your last "turkey shoot" when one of your finest twitchy fingered turkey shooters abandoned any discipline he may have had, ignored his wingman and aimed his A10 at one of our troop carriers.
God bless America. And I hope he helps us clear up the mess YOU create.
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411A and Check6,
Maybe you should have a read of "The Mother of all hypocrisy" or similarly named thread in JetBlast before you pontificate about the poor European record in the Balkans etc and how "helpful" our American cousins are.
It would seem that there is more to this story than meets the eye, and it may well turn out to be a situation of your own creating!
Happy New year to you both.
D
Maybe you should have a read of "The Mother of all hypocrisy" or similarly named thread in JetBlast before you pontificate about the poor European record in the Balkans etc and how "helpful" our American cousins are.
It would seem that there is more to this story than meets the eye, and it may well turn out to be a situation of your own creating!
Happy New year to you both.
D
Last edited by Dufus; 2nd Jan 2003 at 11:17.
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"Invading" certainly is not the same as "colonizing." Regardless of what the "mainstream media" is reporting, Pres. Bush's priority is for Sadam Hussein to be compliant with UN resolutions.
The U.S. other nations have been purchasing oil from Iraq since the Gulf War, i.e. the U.S. does not have to "invade" to avail themselves of Iraqi oil.
This issue is very complex, with many factors involved.
Happy New Year to you all, and safe flying,
The U.S. other nations have been purchasing oil from Iraq since the Gulf War, i.e. the U.S. does not have to "invade" to avail themselves of Iraqi oil.
This issue is very complex, with many factors involved.
Happy New Year to you all, and safe flying,
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Forget the "all over in a week" predictions. This time the allies will have to go all the way in through SH's home territory. I can see them getting thoroughly bogged down in the marshes of S Iraq and having to spend a long time in a very miserable position. Nothing unites a population like being invaded without legal justification, even one that has a manifest megalomaniac in charge.
For some interesting background reading, try Colin Powell's autobiography, A Soldier's Way. He had a lot of experience in Vietnam and the Gulf and when you've read the book you can see how he got to be Dove in the present debate. One quote of his endeared the book to me - "What is a father, except a banker provided by nature?"
For some interesting background reading, try Colin Powell's autobiography, A Soldier's Way. He had a lot of experience in Vietnam and the Gulf and when you've read the book you can see how he got to be Dove in the present debate. One quote of his endeared the book to me - "What is a father, except a banker provided by nature?"
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I, and I seem to be very alone here, don't think there will be a war in Iraq.
I think that all this buildup is for entirely another purpose.
SH is just going along with the whole thing, it's all planned!
Have any of you noticed that, with all this buildup of forces in the Middle East, ie, in the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, Jordan, Turkey, and in other tactical positions thereabouts, it actually has unobtrusively, surrounded Saudi Arabia.
Have youall noticed the subtle change in the attitude of the leaders of Saudi Arabia, with more to come, I'm quite sure!
After the UN report happens, on the 27th, saying, generally, that Iraq does not, have any weapons of the type being sort, this will all very slowly fade away, since George W's CIA has not been able to back-up their constant drone that they have 'intellegence' reports that SH has all sorts of weapons of mass.........!
The main home of all the manpower and money has always been Saudi Arabia, for the Al Q... fanatics, so, of course, the main focus of the stampout has also to be focused there, even though the local rulers don't seem to be cooperative.
Believe me, the CIA is still very active in Saudi, and doing good work, I'm informed.
During this current Hajj period, I understand that not only are there CIA 'non believers' working in Mecca, the holy city of Saudi, where non believers are not even allowed to enter, but there are also Mosad people there (Israieli CIA), now that's something I would never have thought possible!
It's amazing what George W can do, fighting the war against these fanatics, a bit of pressure here, a bit of pressure there!!!
So, for me, no war in Iraq, just tactical manouvering to get the required result, and it seems to be working!
Don't believe all you read/ see on CNN, it's a very large story to deflect the real intention, and to intimidate the oppropriate people.
And, the US dollar will recover from the start of February.
Yo!
I think that all this buildup is for entirely another purpose.
SH is just going along with the whole thing, it's all planned!
Have any of you noticed that, with all this buildup of forces in the Middle East, ie, in the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, Jordan, Turkey, and in other tactical positions thereabouts, it actually has unobtrusively, surrounded Saudi Arabia.
Have youall noticed the subtle change in the attitude of the leaders of Saudi Arabia, with more to come, I'm quite sure!
After the UN report happens, on the 27th, saying, generally, that Iraq does not, have any weapons of the type being sort, this will all very slowly fade away, since George W's CIA has not been able to back-up their constant drone that they have 'intellegence' reports that SH has all sorts of weapons of mass.........!
The main home of all the manpower and money has always been Saudi Arabia, for the Al Q... fanatics, so, of course, the main focus of the stampout has also to be focused there, even though the local rulers don't seem to be cooperative.
Believe me, the CIA is still very active in Saudi, and doing good work, I'm informed.
During this current Hajj period, I understand that not only are there CIA 'non believers' working in Mecca, the holy city of Saudi, where non believers are not even allowed to enter, but there are also Mosad people there (Israieli CIA), now that's something I would never have thought possible!
It's amazing what George W can do, fighting the war against these fanatics, a bit of pressure here, a bit of pressure there!!!
So, for me, no war in Iraq, just tactical manouvering to get the required result, and it seems to be working!
Don't believe all you read/ see on CNN, it's a very large story to deflect the real intention, and to intimidate the oppropriate people.
And, the US dollar will recover from the start of February.
Yo!
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In reply to our American colleagues. America does not clean up the mess that the european states cannot cope with. In fact if you take the time to look at the current conflicts, i wonder how many would have been funded by American money?
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BUSH-BLAIR-SHARON The REAL axis of Evil
Forget the repercussions for the Industry and the Economy for a second and think about the human beings who are going to have their lives ended by depleted-uranium shells and bombs.
This could be the worst year in a long time.
Forget the repercussions for the Industry and the Economy for a second and think about the human beings who are going to have their lives ended by depleted-uranium shells and bombs.
This could be the worst year in a long time.