Do you think Iraq will make a huge difference?
I know the (original) Gulf War hit the industry very hard, but there have been quite a few conflicts since then, notably around the Balkan states.
The threat to air traffic was just as high during the Bosnia or Kosovo conflicts as it was during the Gulf War, and a lot closer to home for us Europeans, but it seemed to have little effect on the airline industry. Perhaps the travelling public are sufficiently used to 'local conflicts' not to be as upset by Gulf War 2 as they were by Gulf War 1.
Obviously the effect on oil prices is something virtually unique to Middle-East troubles, but that tends to be short-term.
There you go, whiskey-fuelled optimism for the New Year! Have a good one everyone.