Well it does seem that if the US goes to Wat then a lot of Americans stop flying. They are such a large segment of particularly lucrative passengers that certain airlines do suffer - around the globe.
There have been significant structural changes in the EU airline market so perhaps this time the effect will be lessened.
However, it is my humble opinion that war looks likely and that therefore the outlook is depressed compared to what it would otherwise be.
That said, any downturn will only make the upturn more marked. Glass half emtpy or half full etc.
Good luck,
WWW