Misplaced optimism and the 'where should I train' syndrome ...
Well Emerald may be re-taking on ex-employees but I still call that recruitment. Especially when some are turning them down because they have other offers.
I am a natural glass is half emtpy person when it comes to airline recruitment. But I *do* see some reasons to be cheerful at the moment though.
Its still a hell of a hard market and nobody should have any illusions.
WWW
I am a natural glass is half emtpy person when it comes to airline recruitment. But I *do* see some reasons to be cheerful at the moment though.
Its still a hell of a hard market and nobody should have any illusions.
WWW
Join Date: Mar 1999
Location: Someday I will find a place to stop
Posts: 1,028
Likes: 0
Received 21 Likes
on
7 Posts
www - are you sure mytravel are/were recruiting?
I would swear I saw ads in Flight offering their pilots to anyone who wanted them?!
BA, retirement etc...this is all assuming they actually maintain their pilot numbers, are we all forgetting their strife in the battle against Easy, Ryanair etc, not that I am saying they will go under, the government is bound to come to the rescue, but cutting costs would seem prudent
Good post Luke!
To those of you looking at taking out a big loan and going ahead with the training with optimism, some advice, as Luke touched on with one of his students, make sure you have a method/means of paying back those monthly loan repayments -until you are in the Airlines-, which could be many years....
I would swear I saw ads in Flight offering their pilots to anyone who wanted them?!
BA, retirement etc...this is all assuming they actually maintain their pilot numbers, are we all forgetting their strife in the battle against Easy, Ryanair etc, not that I am saying they will go under, the government is bound to come to the rescue, but cutting costs would seem prudent
Good post Luke!
To those of you looking at taking out a big loan and going ahead with the training with optimism, some advice, as Luke touched on with one of his students, make sure you have a method/means of paying back those monthly loan repayments -until you are in the Airlines-, which could be many years....
The ex-Airtours cadets chopped in training post Sept11th have been taken on - that counts as hiring.
WWW
WWW
Join Date: May 2001
Location: UK
Posts: 99
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
As I sit here, I am wondering if I will still have a job tomorrow.
If MYT goes belly-up then there will be around 400 type-rated, current pilots wiith at least 2000 hours looking for work.
You peops with 200 hrs on light a/c won't have a chance. Sorry, but that's the plain and simple truth.
You cannot plaan for these 'left-field''' occurences, but listening to the advice above may well save you some heartache and a lot of cash.
If MYT goes belly-up then there will be around 400 type-rated, current pilots wiith at least 2000 hours looking for work.
You peops with 200 hrs on light a/c won't have a chance. Sorry, but that's the plain and simple truth.
You cannot plaan for these 'left-field''' occurences, but listening to the advice above may well save you some heartache and a lot of cash.
PPRuNe Knight in Shining Armour
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Everywhere in the UK, but not home!
Posts: 503
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Spot on Luke, and you usually are.
As we all know the industry is on a knife edge at the moment and none of us know which way it'll fall. War, imho, is inevitable as long as George W is at the helm and Tone remains his puppy dog, when is the guess.
Another worrying thing is MyTravel, with an accounting black hole of £50m and a share price of 18p what's going to happen to them? Guess(1)..... they go under and there are more experienced pilots on the market, or guess(2) they get taken over, which inevitably leads to restructuring and the possibility of some experienced pilots on the market.
Neither augurs well does it?
What we need to see is the experienced F/O's getting command, the other F/O's getting promotion to senior F/O's. This will create the vacuum lower down for people like me. I just don't see it happening yet.
There have been few truer things said on this message board!
As we all know the industry is on a knife edge at the moment and none of us know which way it'll fall. War, imho, is inevitable as long as George W is at the helm and Tone remains his puppy dog, when is the guess.
Another worrying thing is MyTravel, with an accounting black hole of £50m and a share price of 18p what's going to happen to them? Guess(1)..... they go under and there are more experienced pilots on the market, or guess(2) they get taken over, which inevitably leads to restructuring and the possibility of some experienced pilots on the market.
Neither augurs well does it?
What we need to see is the experienced F/O's getting command, the other F/O's getting promotion to senior F/O's. This will create the vacuum lower down for people like me. I just don't see it happening yet.
The trouble with working for a living and getting older is that youthful optimism is replaced by cynical realism.
Well yes, if MYT goes under then that will put us right back to Sept12th as far as hiring goes.
But, their aircraft are still full of people going on holiday. Presumably if the group went under then the IT sector would still have to move the same numbers of people around. Albeit at possibly slightly less discounted ticket prices. Lets all cross our fingers and pray it doesn't happen.
Its when nobody wants to fly at any price that things are terrible for the industry as a whole. Usually times of war or proper economic recession. Which as I say, I think perhaps are not such likely prospects.
Fingers crossed.
WWW
But, their aircraft are still full of people going on holiday. Presumably if the group went under then the IT sector would still have to move the same numbers of people around. Albeit at possibly slightly less discounted ticket prices. Lets all cross our fingers and pray it doesn't happen.
Its when nobody wants to fly at any price that things are terrible for the industry as a whole. Usually times of war or proper economic recession. Which as I say, I think perhaps are not such likely prospects.
Fingers crossed.
WWW
I say there boy
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: Somewhere
Posts: 1,065
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
At the BALPA conference the MYT chief pilot said that the airline itself shows a profit.
Obviously there would be a big impact if MYT group went under, taking with it one of their big sources of passengers, however it's not a case of all doom and gloom.
Having said that El Desperado implies that he works for the company so may know something that we don't...
Obviously there would be a big impact if MYT group went under, taking with it one of their big sources of passengers, however it's not a case of all doom and gloom.
Having said that El Desperado implies that he works for the company so may know something that we don't...
Join Date: May 2001
Location: UK
Posts: 99
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
There's nothing inherently wrong with the airline per se, but one of the (unconfirmed) lines of thought is that the CAA might be forced to pull MYT's operator's certificate if it cannot meet the bonding requirements.
I'm a pilot, not a business analyst, and I can assure you that no-one is telling us anything. Mushrooms. We have found our information from newspapers, business programs and the net - we are not being talked to so it is all speculation for the moment.
I think WWW is correct - the seats have been sold and the pax numbers are there, but there might well be the capacity amongst the remaining IT operators and the likes of EAC to absorb it if we go under. I just don't know.
You won't be interested in my personal job woes, but the importance of this to those who are thinking about training cannot be underestimated - I would advise you follow the situation closely before parting with the cash because, as WWW rightly points out, if we go under, you can virtually kiss low-hour hiring goodbye for a fair while.
Six months ago, we were patting ourselves on the back in being in the safest airline, jobwise, in the IT market. We got pay rises, better increments, better conditions... all was pretty rosy. Within a week, the share price has crashed 80% and the spectre of total insolvency looms.
For sale - one 1986 B757-225..... thirty-eight careful owners, and only 60,000 hours on the clock. Just resprayed, full sheep-hide trim. 2 new tyres, TV player, coffee-maker etc. Full wing-tank fuel. First to see will buy, genuine reason for sale. Must go this week ! Might p/x for van. Please call El Desperado on.....
I'm a pilot, not a business analyst, and I can assure you that no-one is telling us anything. Mushrooms. We have found our information from newspapers, business programs and the net - we are not being talked to so it is all speculation for the moment.
I think WWW is correct - the seats have been sold and the pax numbers are there, but there might well be the capacity amongst the remaining IT operators and the likes of EAC to absorb it if we go under. I just don't know.
You won't be interested in my personal job woes, but the importance of this to those who are thinking about training cannot be underestimated - I would advise you follow the situation closely before parting with the cash because, as WWW rightly points out, if we go under, you can virtually kiss low-hour hiring goodbye for a fair while.
Six months ago, we were patting ourselves on the back in being in the safest airline, jobwise, in the IT market. We got pay rises, better increments, better conditions... all was pretty rosy. Within a week, the share price has crashed 80% and the spectre of total insolvency looms.
For sale - one 1986 B757-225..... thirty-eight careful owners, and only 60,000 hours on the clock. Just resprayed, full sheep-hide trim. 2 new tyres, TV player, coffee-maker etc. Full wing-tank fuel. First to see will buy, genuine reason for sale. Must go this week ! Might p/x for van. Please call El Desperado on.....
Just another number
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: UK
Age: 76
Posts: 1,077
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The figure of 1500 recruits for BA is rather excesive. There are currently 90 TEPs in the hold pool and the last TEP course finishes at Jerez in November. The first of these TEPs started their 737 and Airbus conversion courses last week and there will be a steady stream of them joining us until the middle of next year. After they have all joined, any requirements will be filled with fully type rated pilots.
BA will be increasing the retirement age to 60 in 2006 which will effectively put a hold on recruitment for five years. I would estimate that the total requirement is about 300 up until then, as we are past the retirement bulge.
I cannot predict the future, as I don't have a crystal ball. However, I would encourage anyone who is in a regular job to go down the modular route, and hang on to your day job. Things will improve eventually but they are going to get worse before they get better.
I'm sorry if this sound pessimistic. I don't want to put anyone off as it is the best job in the world, but please think very carefully before getting yourself in debt with the hope of a light at the end of the tunnel. It is a long tunnel, so take your time, plan your training carefuly, and eventually you will emerge into the sunshine.
God luck to you all.
Airclues
BA will be increasing the retirement age to 60 in 2006 which will effectively put a hold on recruitment for five years. I would estimate that the total requirement is about 300 up until then, as we are past the retirement bulge.
I cannot predict the future, as I don't have a crystal ball. However, I would encourage anyone who is in a regular job to go down the modular route, and hang on to your day job. Things will improve eventually but they are going to get worse before they get better.
I'm sorry if this sound pessimistic. I don't want to put anyone off as it is the best job in the world, but please think very carefully before getting yourself in debt with the hope of a light at the end of the tunnel. It is a long tunnel, so take your time, plan your training carefuly, and eventually you will emerge into the sunshine.
God luck to you all.
Airclues
Captain Airclues - thank you for taking the time to make that post, most informative and timely. Your continued input to this forum over many years is appreciated.
The much hyped "retirement bulge" never impressed me much - it all sounded alarmingly like a sales pitch from the schools.
WWW
The much hyped "retirement bulge" never impressed me much - it all sounded alarmingly like a sales pitch from the schools.
WWW
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Alba sor
Posts: 575
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Captain Airclues wrote: "as we are past the retirement bulge"
Not according to the BA presentation at the recent Balpa EOC! According to BA they are in the middle of the 'retirement bulge' and it will not tail off till after 2004.
I was chatting to a soon to be retired BA 747 Captain who commented that the official BA figures were not correct and an underestimate.
However, the remainder of Airclues post rings true.
Not according to the BA presentation at the recent Balpa EOC! According to BA they are in the middle of the 'retirement bulge' and it will not tail off till after 2004.
I was chatting to a soon to be retired BA 747 Captain who commented that the official BA figures were not correct and an underestimate.
However, the remainder of Airclues post rings true.
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: UK
Posts: 7
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I would agree with Airclues in that we are now past the retirement bulge-or at least at the tail end of it this year. Just to add though,I have heard that TEP courses will not be expected to finish at Jerez until early next year.
TG
Edited for sloppy grammar
TG
Edited for sloppy grammar
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Brighton, UK
Posts: 434
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
maybe this is a slightly strange slant to this thread but here goes..... I run a private hire/airport transfer company and it has been noticeable in the last six months how much busier our airport side has become. If this were exclusively our boast then I would see no need for optimism : however it is throughout the whole of our industry and the increased business is ONLY on the airport run side, indeed the private hire side of all similar businesses is becoming a smaller and smaller market.
And armed with the knowledge of passengers return flight details it is not just restricted to the likes of easyJet et al, but also shows a substantial increase over last year on passengers using BA, as well as the likes of MYT, Air 2000 etc. How well this reflects nationwide I dont know but it certainly applies to the London airports.
I would agree that the business travel is down but more holiday makers must be a sign of increased confidence in air travel.
WWW - Yet more good advice and I am another "wannabee" wondering which route to take and trying to use my experience of the big bad business world to be as pessimistic as possible, and would agree that the slowly but surely approach would be the better one to take. My only problem with that is my age wont stop and wait for the market to pick up!!!!!!
Maybe I should just have fun with ppl...
And armed with the knowledge of passengers return flight details it is not just restricted to the likes of easyJet et al, but also shows a substantial increase over last year on passengers using BA, as well as the likes of MYT, Air 2000 etc. How well this reflects nationwide I dont know but it certainly applies to the London airports.
I would agree that the business travel is down but more holiday makers must be a sign of increased confidence in air travel.
WWW - Yet more good advice and I am another "wannabee" wondering which route to take and trying to use my experience of the big bad business world to be as pessimistic as possible, and would agree that the slowly but surely approach would be the better one to take. My only problem with that is my age wont stop and wait for the market to pick up!!!!!!
Maybe I should just have fun with ppl...
I shouldn't worry too much about age.
Better to become a commercial pilot with 5 extra years on the clock than to become one and spend the first 5 years of your career unemployed, dissheartened and struggling to remain current/enthusiastic.
For those starting out in - say 1998 like myself with the exams - things were OK. There was work about, it was always hard but at least you heard of people getting jobs. Everyone I worked with as a PPL instructor in 1999 now has a decent flying job. We stay in contact a bit and everyones happy with their lot. It has been a good 5 years.
For someone starting out last or this year the contrast might be quite stark. You could have the same aptitude, go to the same schools, network just as hard and be just as plausible at interview. And yet you are going to struggle like hell and its going to get you down. If what you are doing right now gets you down a lot then perhaps its merely out of the frying pan and into the fire. If however you currently have a happy enough lot at work I suggest you aim to enter the market in a few years time. The difference it makes to your career and your outlook on flying can be marked.
Remember there are a heck of a lot more people apply for ATPL exams than ever unfreeze an ATPL. There is a reason for that and it isn't pretty.
As I said earlier though. The market is starting to move just a little bit. If MYT keeps trundling along ( I think they will ) then there will be a bit of hiring this winter. Which 12 months ago would have been to the more optomistic end of my expectations.
Good luck,
WWW
Better to become a commercial pilot with 5 extra years on the clock than to become one and spend the first 5 years of your career unemployed, dissheartened and struggling to remain current/enthusiastic.
For those starting out in - say 1998 like myself with the exams - things were OK. There was work about, it was always hard but at least you heard of people getting jobs. Everyone I worked with as a PPL instructor in 1999 now has a decent flying job. We stay in contact a bit and everyones happy with their lot. It has been a good 5 years.
For someone starting out last or this year the contrast might be quite stark. You could have the same aptitude, go to the same schools, network just as hard and be just as plausible at interview. And yet you are going to struggle like hell and its going to get you down. If what you are doing right now gets you down a lot then perhaps its merely out of the frying pan and into the fire. If however you currently have a happy enough lot at work I suggest you aim to enter the market in a few years time. The difference it makes to your career and your outlook on flying can be marked.
Remember there are a heck of a lot more people apply for ATPL exams than ever unfreeze an ATPL. There is a reason for that and it isn't pretty.
As I said earlier though. The market is starting to move just a little bit. If MYT keeps trundling along ( I think they will ) then there will be a bit of hiring this winter. Which 12 months ago would have been to the more optomistic end of my expectations.
Good luck,
WWW
Just another number
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: UK
Age: 76
Posts: 1,077
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Meeb
Apologies. I should have said that BA were past the PEAK of the retirement bulge (which occured in June 2002). One word can make a big difference to a statement. I stick with the rest of my post.
Airclues
Apologies. I should have said that BA were past the PEAK of the retirement bulge (which occured in June 2002). One word can make a big difference to a statement. I stick with the rest of my post.
Airclues
Thread Starter
Join Date: Mar 1999
Location: Domaine de la Romanee-Conti
Posts: 1,691
Likes: 0
Received 3 Likes
on
1 Post
What bothers me more, is that bit where Captain Airclues says there'll be no BA recruitment from 2006 for 5 years!! 
This should be ringing major alarms for everyone who's coming through the system now ... just about the right time scale for you to finish your exams, do your year of instructing /hour building and two or three years on turboprop and ... whammo! Lid gets put on job market for the rest of the decade.
Read it again and think about the implications ... someone in the know is saying no BA recruitment between the years 2006 and 2011. Sends shivers right up my spine, that does, just when I was starting to feel all good about things again
This should be ringing major alarms for everyone who's coming through the system now ... just about the right time scale for you to finish your exams, do your year of instructing /hour building and two or three years on turboprop and ... whammo! Lid gets put on job market for the rest of the decade.Read it again and think about the implications ... someone in the know is saying no BA recruitment between the years 2006 and 2011. Sends shivers right up my spine, that does, just when I was starting to feel all good about things again
Just another number
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: UK
Age: 76
Posts: 1,077
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Luke
Thinks might not be as bad as you think, for two reasons;
1. Although the option to continue to 60 will be available from 2006, not everyone will want to take it up for varous reasons.
2. The supply of experienced, type-rated 55 year-old pilots will dry up (SX currently have 82 ex-BA pilots on the 747-400), which could mean more vacancies in other airlines.
Airclues
Thinks might not be as bad as you think, for two reasons;
1. Although the option to continue to 60 will be available from 2006, not everyone will want to take it up for varous reasons.
2. The supply of experienced, type-rated 55 year-old pilots will dry up (SX currently have 82 ex-BA pilots on the 747-400), which could mean more vacancies in other airlines.
Airclues
