An Assessment Of The Current Crisis
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Well, from a collegue at WMU with BA, cadets just finishing are being told a possible wait of 2 years, and those who have just started maybe a years wait after graduation. Anyone with further knowledge correct me if I am wrong. Nobody can give exact timescales, including BA.
WWW, I read your post with interest. As a wannabe who was hoping for sponsorship, or starting modular in the first quarter of 2002, I am in the process of re-organising my short term plans. I feel the points you make are true, and many wannabes need to appreciate the uphill battle we may be entering. However you seem to keep telling us wannabes how bad the situation is, which is something we already know
. Actually, keep going - it may result in less competition when I'm qualified, and things HAVE picked up 
.
Best of luck all and stay positive dammit!
JT8
WWW, I read your post with interest. As a wannabe who was hoping for sponsorship, or starting modular in the first quarter of 2002, I am in the process of re-organising my short term plans. I feel the points you make are true, and many wannabes need to appreciate the uphill battle we may be entering. However you seem to keep telling us wannabes how bad the situation is, which is something we already know
. Actually, keep going - it may result in less competition when I'm qualified, and things HAVE picked up .Best of luck all and stay positive dammit!
JT8
Thread Starter
Yeah well the "we already know how bad it is" argument holds no water. I am fielding constant queries of breathtaking naivity from - mostly - young Wannabes. "Is it true that I will only be able to get a job with easyJet when I do my licence because BA are not hiring pilots any more?" ETC. ETC.
If you are well into the market and know just how things stand then perhaps I seem to be going on a bit. But there are people out there who do not have a decent understanding of the UK airline pilot hiring marketplace and it is to them that a lot of my posts are addressed.
Cheers, and guys if you don't like the message Please don't shoot the messenger - perhaps shoot his message down with an argument instead.
WWW
If you are well into the market and know just how things stand then perhaps I seem to be going on a bit. But there are people out there who do not have a decent understanding of the UK airline pilot hiring marketplace and it is to them that a lot of my posts are addressed.
Cheers, and guys if you don't like the message Please don't shoot the messenger - perhaps shoot his message down with an argument instead.
WWW
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I get the impression that the Industry lurches from one extreme to another.Firstly everyone is hiring like made,then next minute nobody is hiring and people are getting laid off.I believe IFR is right and things will bounce back,it is just when?I can also see WWW warning about spending £50000 on training when there are no jobs.
However looking at it from the other side those just about to undertake full time training may just be qualifying just as the jobs start to come back on line again.A very big risk I know.
Things will improve it is just a question of timing the end of your training to coincide with the upturn in the Industry.....And if I knew the answer to that....well??
Think carefully before you spend on your training,have a backup plan to keep you current if all else fails,and to you guys about to set off to Jerez at the end of the month,just concentrate on what you are going there to do,it may have improved by the time you are finished....Good Luck.
However looking at it from the other side those just about to undertake full time training may just be qualifying just as the jobs start to come back on line again.A very big risk I know.
Things will improve it is just a question of timing the end of your training to coincide with the upturn in the Industry.....And if I knew the answer to that....well??
Think carefully before you spend on your training,have a backup plan to keep you current if all else fails,and to you guys about to set off to Jerez at the end of the month,just concentrate on what you are going there to do,it may have improved by the time you are finished....Good Luck.
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WWW,
I was just looking around the forums and came across your post....
I'm lucky enough to have seen out the last recession and despite being laid off twice still remained employed again. Todays situation is as you so rightly say very different. I'm all for someone telling those who are about to spend a small fortune what the reality is, keep it up. The news may not be great but it still needs to be told.....
Regards.
I was just looking around the forums and came across your post....
I'm lucky enough to have seen out the last recession and despite being laid off twice still remained employed again. Todays situation is as you so rightly say very different. I'm all for someone telling those who are about to spend a small fortune what the reality is, keep it up. The news may not be great but it still needs to be told.....
Regards.
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Nice of you to try and bring some info to the forum WWW, but I agree with others that you are being needlessly pessimistic.
Having been through the 80's and 90's as a pilot (and before as a wannabe), I can tell you that these downturns are all basically the same, with the slight difference that airlines are a lot more circumspect these days, and tend to take action before the planes get reposessed. This is a Good Thing, as it tends to safeguard jobs.
I well remember 1989, when I started with Loganair. I chose them because they offered to pay for my IR- just as well, too, as the other 12 airlines that offered me jobs were bankrupt within a year or three. Names like BIA, Novair, Paramount, Capital, National Commuter, London City Airways, Birmingham International, not to mention Air Europe, Dan, etc. By 1994, BEST aircrew had over 500 type-rated, experienced jet pilots on their books as unemployed, and there were many more turboprop and instructor pilots, and many newly minted pilots too- well over 1200 in all by estimates of the time (does any of this start to sound familiar to you...???)
And yet, a couple of years later, there were virtually no unemployed pilots and a hiring boom in full swing.
The point is this. The travelling public will continue to fly, and in increasing numbers. Once this blip is over, the industry will grow even larger. At the moment, what you are seeing is companies taking very rapid action to safeguard their position- I suspect a lot of what has happened in the last few days will be reversed in the weeks ahead. My company, BE, even suspects that we might have to hire pilots in the reasonably near future (and that has nothing to do with the acquisition of Gill routes either). Some, like EasyJet and Go, are still hiring (at least I assume Go are from what I hear).
Remember, the only airlines to be badly hit are those reliant on trans-Atlantic travel. The downturn in the rest of the market has not been nearly as dramatic, and most figures you see bandied around are based on forward booking figures, which will naturally slump after an event like last week. That doesn't mean people won't fly, simply that they will book nearer the time of travel to give them time to assess the risk.
The reason that some airlines have shown themselves to be troubled by recent events, is that they were already highly vulnerable. Most of the reason for that is beyond their control, and is not really within the scope of this thread.
Of the four sectors I flew to and from London City airport yesterday- and London City must be perceived as a high-risk airport from a pax point of view- the loads were high on two (ie 80%), and good on two others (ie about 60%). These are good figures for a traditional airline with the sort of yield management we have, and the number of Business Class we carry.
Your figures are interesting, but they grossly over-simplify the situation, and I think it is somewhat misleading of you to go down that road.
The industry is not that much bigger than it was 10 years ago, there are certainly less airlines now than there were then, and the training industry is geared for an artificial bump in training capacity for a variety of reasons.
The JAA thing is a red herring.
As no sponsor said, it is mostly idle speculation, do some research yourself before you commit to anything... and also before you cancel anything. Those that remember the early 90's will recall how those who did the training in the tough times were in the box seat when things improved.
Two other things, WWW said:
Not entirely correct. In 1987, you could hire an Aztec for multi training for just over £200 per hour. By 1989, it was over £300 at many schools, and climbing. Some have now come down a bit, but make no mistake, some very large amounts of money have been made in the flight school business; it is, like any business, about supply and demand. I did my multi training at what was a brand new school and got it for £220 (in 1989 when converting my NZ licence).
WWW also said:
Again, not true. Most regionals know that the experienced guy, assuming he is type-rated on something bigger, will leave at the drop of the hat and their net training costs will be higher. That is why many airlines deliberately employ low-houred people- they can usually rely on them staying longer. Training risk is most definitely NOT eliminated as previous experience can make conversion to new SOPs and types problematical- on my F27 course a few years back, three very experienced pilots (including a 20-yr fast jet Squadron Leader) failed the course while two 200-hour F/O's (and me) passed it.
Finally- and I mean this in the nicest possible way without in any way wanting to have a go at you- it is very dangerous to pontificate on the airline industry on the basis of your few months of employment in it. It would be wiser to seek the views of those with many years experience in the industry as most have seen this (or something very like it) before. That is, in fact, what Wannabes desperately need: wise, experienced heads to guide them (both the individuals and the forum).
Having been through the 80's and 90's as a pilot (and before as a wannabe), I can tell you that these downturns are all basically the same, with the slight difference that airlines are a lot more circumspect these days, and tend to take action before the planes get reposessed. This is a Good Thing, as it tends to safeguard jobs.
I well remember 1989, when I started with Loganair. I chose them because they offered to pay for my IR- just as well, too, as the other 12 airlines that offered me jobs were bankrupt within a year or three. Names like BIA, Novair, Paramount, Capital, National Commuter, London City Airways, Birmingham International, not to mention Air Europe, Dan, etc. By 1994, BEST aircrew had over 500 type-rated, experienced jet pilots on their books as unemployed, and there were many more turboprop and instructor pilots, and many newly minted pilots too- well over 1200 in all by estimates of the time (does any of this start to sound familiar to you...???)
And yet, a couple of years later, there were virtually no unemployed pilots and a hiring boom in full swing.
The point is this. The travelling public will continue to fly, and in increasing numbers. Once this blip is over, the industry will grow even larger. At the moment, what you are seeing is companies taking very rapid action to safeguard their position- I suspect a lot of what has happened in the last few days will be reversed in the weeks ahead. My company, BE, even suspects that we might have to hire pilots in the reasonably near future (and that has nothing to do with the acquisition of Gill routes either). Some, like EasyJet and Go, are still hiring (at least I assume Go are from what I hear).
Remember, the only airlines to be badly hit are those reliant on trans-Atlantic travel. The downturn in the rest of the market has not been nearly as dramatic, and most figures you see bandied around are based on forward booking figures, which will naturally slump after an event like last week. That doesn't mean people won't fly, simply that they will book nearer the time of travel to give them time to assess the risk.
The reason that some airlines have shown themselves to be troubled by recent events, is that they were already highly vulnerable. Most of the reason for that is beyond their control, and is not really within the scope of this thread.
Of the four sectors I flew to and from London City airport yesterday- and London City must be perceived as a high-risk airport from a pax point of view- the loads were high on two (ie 80%), and good on two others (ie about 60%). These are good figures for a traditional airline with the sort of yield management we have, and the number of Business Class we carry.
Your figures are interesting, but they grossly over-simplify the situation, and I think it is somewhat misleading of you to go down that road.
The industry is not that much bigger than it was 10 years ago, there are certainly less airlines now than there were then, and the training industry is geared for an artificial bump in training capacity for a variety of reasons.
The JAA thing is a red herring.
As no sponsor said, it is mostly idle speculation, do some research yourself before you commit to anything... and also before you cancel anything. Those that remember the early 90's will recall how those who did the training in the tough times were in the box seat when things improved.
Two other things, WWW said:
margins in flightraining are very slim and there will be little in terms of fee reduction. It didn't happen to any great extent in the 1991 crisis.
WWW also said:
Your regional TP airline will quite happily take an applicant with prior commercial experience over someone with none. Training risk is eliminated and if they leave inside of three year they will get a chunk of bond money back. The low time guy will still be kicking around willing to take the place of the guy who has now returned to his big jet.
Finally- and I mean this in the nicest possible way without in any way wanting to have a go at you- it is very dangerous to pontificate on the airline industry on the basis of your few months of employment in it. It would be wiser to seek the views of those with many years experience in the industry as most have seen this (or something very like it) before. That is, in fact, what Wannabes desperately need: wise, experienced heads to guide them (both the individuals and the forum).
WWW, a well thought out argument. This does not apply just to pilots. Everyone (not just pilots) should be being very careful in their financial decisions. It is not being pessimistic, it is just being adult enough to realise that in this time of uncertainty that caution is required. These tragic events only added to the airlines problems. Many redundancies were on the cards anyway.
My advice would be that if you have not already paid for a course, is to sit tight and see what happens in the next couple of weeks.
My advice would be that if you have not already paid for a course, is to sit tight and see what happens in the next couple of weeks.
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No, flyboy, that is NOT what I mean! I'm just saying that there is a little more to it than WWW's assessment would indicate.
By the way, a small correction, what I wrote above only applies to the UK... in the US, domestic air travel bookings have fallen by over 78%... spare a thought for the poor American wannabes...
By the way, a small correction, what I wrote above only applies to the UK... in the US, domestic air travel bookings have fallen by over 78%... spare a thought for the poor American wannabes...
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I’ve only just discovered this thread, and have to express my gratitude to WWW, IFR & Raw Data for the amount of time & thought that have gone into their posts. There’s no shortage of counsel there, its up to individuals to listen to the arguments and steer their own course between the viewpoints.
As something of a tadpole in the training pond, I’m in a similar situation to a great many wannabes, so I thought I might as well throw in my two penneth. For what its worth (and allowing for several glasses of red wine) here’s my story:
I’m a month short of my 30th birthday, have been flying for 10 months, and have racked up a whopping 20 hours so far. I won’t bore you with the ‘comfortable career’, ‘unfulfilled, restless, blah blah’, ‘the instructor said “You have control” and it hit me like lightning’ bit – you’ve heard it all before. Be assured though, I’m determined to fly for a living, and if that involves the occasional pig-headed refusal to admit defeat, then so be it.
Prior to September 11th, I was full of uncertainty – had the cycle peaked or was it on and ever upward? What would the prospects be this time next year? Should I carry on with a couple of hours a month while I paid off the wedding / honeymoon, or should I accelerate my training, or even stick two fingers up to the boss and go for an integrated course?
At least now the path is clearer. I don’t believe there is much point in me completing training for at least 2 years, as I’ll be competing in a depressed market against a large number of (a) unemployed airline pilots, (b) sponsored students unwanted by their airlines, and (c) self-sponsored integrated students who wrote out a big cheque just at the wrong time.
So I’ll slow things down and let the credit cards cool off a bit. However, I am planning to be there with my frozen ATPL in 2-3 years time. Why? Firstly because I like the idea of doing a Danny, and training at the bottom of the cycle, secondly because I have no doubt that the medium to long-term trend is inexorably upwards, and thirdly because I can remember the Gulf War.
The first point has already been discussed at length, so I won’t bother repeating it. For the second point, I look at the formidable progress of low-cost operators in the UK and Ireland, a process that has barely started in the rest of the EU, but surely cannot fail to catch on. When the low-costs offer people the chance of a return ticket anywhere in Europe for the price of a couple of tankfulls of petrol, they are simply reflecting a world that is ever more accustomed to cheap air transport, and which takes mobility for granted. Where once we’d have driven down to Brighton for the weekend, now we think nothing of Barcelona or Nice.
And for the last point, I well remember the doomsday predictions, the ‘feared’ Republican Guard, the Mother of All Battles, the very real possibility of Iraq using chemical weapons, and the US refusing to rule out nuclear retaliation . . . Normality returned, and pretty quickly (admittedly with a sizeable lag in the aviation industry – and hence my decision to delay). I accept that history might not be a perfect pointer to the future, but I’m struggling to think of a better one.
In short, I’m not giving up the day job, but nor will I give up training. Its times like this that being pig-headed can be quite an advantage.
(Edited for red wine stains )
[ 22 September 2001: Message edited by: G SXTY ]
As something of a tadpole in the training pond, I’m in a similar situation to a great many wannabes, so I thought I might as well throw in my two penneth. For what its worth (and allowing for several glasses of red wine) here’s my story:
I’m a month short of my 30th birthday, have been flying for 10 months, and have racked up a whopping 20 hours so far. I won’t bore you with the ‘comfortable career’, ‘unfulfilled, restless, blah blah’, ‘the instructor said “You have control” and it hit me like lightning’ bit – you’ve heard it all before.
Be assured though, I’m determined to fly for a living, and if that involves the occasional pig-headed refusal to admit defeat, then so be it.Prior to September 11th, I was full of uncertainty – had the cycle peaked or was it on and ever upward? What would the prospects be this time next year? Should I carry on with a couple of hours a month while I paid off the wedding / honeymoon, or should I accelerate my training, or even stick two fingers up to the boss and go for an integrated course?
At least now the path is clearer. I don’t believe there is much point in me completing training for at least 2 years, as I’ll be competing in a depressed market against a large number of (a) unemployed airline pilots, (b) sponsored students unwanted by their airlines, and (c) self-sponsored integrated students who wrote out a big cheque just at the wrong time.
So I’ll slow things down and let the credit cards cool off a bit. However, I am planning to be there with my frozen ATPL in 2-3 years time. Why? Firstly because I like the idea of doing a Danny, and training at the bottom of the cycle, secondly because I have no doubt that the medium to long-term trend is inexorably upwards, and thirdly because I can remember the Gulf War.
The first point has already been discussed at length, so I won’t bother repeating it. For the second point, I look at the formidable progress of low-cost operators in the UK and Ireland, a process that has barely started in the rest of the EU, but surely cannot fail to catch on. When the low-costs offer people the chance of a return ticket anywhere in Europe for the price of a couple of tankfulls of petrol, they are simply reflecting a world that is ever more accustomed to cheap air transport, and which takes mobility for granted. Where once we’d have driven down to Brighton for the weekend, now we think nothing of Barcelona or Nice.
And for the last point, I well remember the doomsday predictions, the ‘feared’ Republican Guard, the Mother of All Battles, the very real possibility of Iraq using chemical weapons, and the US refusing to rule out nuclear retaliation . . . Normality returned, and pretty quickly (admittedly with a sizeable lag in the aviation industry – and hence my decision to delay). I accept that history might not be a perfect pointer to the future, but I’m struggling to think of a better one.
In short, I’m not giving up the day job, but nor will I give up training. Its times like this that being pig-headed can be quite an advantage.
(Edited for red wine stains
)[ 22 September 2001: Message edited by: G SXTY ]
Thread Starter
RD - thanks for that, your input as always is most welcome.
I agree with a lot of what you said. In particular your experience of the early 90's which I think we will see again. In which case as you say it took until the mid 90's for hiring to become reaonable again.
If you tell most Wannabes that it will take until 2005 for hiring to become reasonable again they look at you in abject horror.
If the low costs keep hiring then you can bet that the Icelandair and the Sabena pilots newly out of work with the correct type rating will join the Virgin and BA early retirees in filling all those slots.
The regionals hiring requirements will be fullfilled for a year or two by ex-sponsored cadets.
Leaving didly for the poor indebted self sponsor 200hr guy.
Or not? What do you think? I am interested in generating a broad informed cross section of views here <nudge nudge wink wink> - just think about my posts...
Cheers,
WWW
I agree with a lot of what you said. In particular your experience of the early 90's which I think we will see again. In which case as you say it took until the mid 90's for hiring to become reaonable again.
If you tell most Wannabes that it will take until 2005 for hiring to become reasonable again they look at you in abject horror.
If the low costs keep hiring then you can bet that the Icelandair and the Sabena pilots newly out of work with the correct type rating will join the Virgin and BA early retirees in filling all those slots.
The regionals hiring requirements will be fullfilled for a year or two by ex-sponsored cadets.
Leaving didly for the poor indebted self sponsor 200hr guy.
Or not? What do you think? I am interested in generating a broad informed cross section of views here <nudge nudge wink wink> - just think about my posts...
Cheers,
WWW
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A very sensible post G SXTY. Your 'plan' looks considered and precise.
However, I would repeat what I have already said on other posts, don't get left behind. Choose your options and take positive steps forward.
It will work out alright. It will take time, but I do not subscribe to the length of time being assessed before hiring in healthy numbers takes place again. Just do not give up.
Best 'o luck to everyone.
However, I would repeat what I have already said on other posts, don't get left behind. Choose your options and take positive steps forward.
It will work out alright. It will take time, but I do not subscribe to the length of time being assessed before hiring in healthy numbers takes place again. Just do not give up.
Best 'o luck to everyone.
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This is a time for calm. It will take a long time before anything is certain. A few things can reasonably be interpreted as highly likely:-
* The demography of pilots is not linear. We will see a large retirement bulge over the next 5 years.
* Terms and conditions of employment are likely to be reduced in future.
* Previously forecast huge growth in Air Transport is very unlikely in the Medium term (5 years?)
* Airlines will be forced to carry additional costs for a long time (security, fuel,infastructure built for expansion in capacity,insurance)
* Other sectors of the economy (and possibly eithin aviation) will thrive or decline as a result of the change to Air Transport fortunes.
* Short-term external factors could change all of the above and much more.
Good luck to all - it is going to be one marathon roller coaster ride.
* The demography of pilots is not linear. We will see a large retirement bulge over the next 5 years.
* Terms and conditions of employment are likely to be reduced in future.
* Previously forecast huge growth in Air Transport is very unlikely in the Medium term (5 years?)
* Airlines will be forced to carry additional costs for a long time (security, fuel,infastructure built for expansion in capacity,insurance)
* Other sectors of the economy (and possibly eithin aviation) will thrive or decline as a result of the change to Air Transport fortunes.
* Short-term external factors could change all of the above and much more.
Good luck to all - it is going to be one marathon roller coaster ride.
Thread Starter
Just one simple point.
The BA retirement bulge. Do not make the mistake of thinking that all these pilots leave the industry to spend their lives polishing the Ferrari. I used the think that was the case.
But at the BA retirement age of 55 they have another 5 years of flying in them. At least a tird in my estimation continue flying.
Certainly every third Captain I fly with seems to have been in BA or 20 odd years. My company offers 'half rosters' so they do 2 weeks work a month and take home some pay that tops up the pension or perhaps pays for the second Ferrari
Others go and do things like fly small turboprops around Scotland just because they don't feel ready for their pipe and slippers.
I never realised this until quite recently.
Cheers,
WWW
The BA retirement bulge. Do not make the mistake of thinking that all these pilots leave the industry to spend their lives polishing the Ferrari. I used the think that was the case.
But at the BA retirement age of 55 they have another 5 years of flying in them. At least a tird in my estimation continue flying.
Certainly every third Captain I fly with seems to have been in BA or 20 odd years. My company offers 'half rosters' so they do 2 weeks work a month and take home some pay that tops up the pension or perhaps pays for the second Ferrari
Others go and do things like fly small turboprops around Scotland just because they don't feel ready for their pipe and slippers.
I never realised this until quite recently.
Cheers,
WWW
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G SXTY,
Sounds like a good plan....was thinking pretty much the same thing myself! I thnk if there is anything good that could be said about the current situation, it would be that it's going to enable me to slow down a bit and consolidate my finances a touch so at least I'll have fewer debts by the time I get to CPL/IR. Yes, things are tough and I'm sure they will get worse before they get better but I spent a hell of a long time agonising over my decision to change career and longer still getting financial backing - I'm certainly not going to give up now!
I'm pretty lucky in that there's no problems with job security in my current profession!
Sounds like a good plan....was thinking pretty much the same thing myself! I thnk if there is anything good that could be said about the current situation, it would be that it's going to enable me to slow down a bit and consolidate my finances a touch so at least I'll have fewer debts by the time I get to CPL/IR. Yes, things are tough and I'm sure they will get worse before they get better but I spent a hell of a long time agonising over my decision to change career and longer still getting financial backing - I'm certainly not going to give up now!
I'm pretty lucky in that there's no problems with job security in my current profession!
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Crazyman, Some interesting points there. Here are others which I feel are relevant to the big picture:
- As both the former Soviet Union and China 'open' up there will be more airspace and destinations for the planners to consider. Those countries will slowly get richer and the take up of air travel will increase.
- Interest rates in the UK are likely to be more stable and probably lower in the next 5 years, making it easier for businesses to plan and grow. Highly relevant as the airline business is all about financing debt.
- Businesses do not 'plan' to remain the same size. Some have shareholders to please, others must strive for growth to secure their financial well-being.
- The rapid lay-off of pilots is a sign of structural flexibility. Airlines can turn on a sixpence if necessary. At the moment this is to our detriment, but when sanity returns it will be to our advantage.
- According to the Times, the Government has announced its intent to assist with the costs of security measures and insurance, so all is not lost there.
I think we are being bombarded with so much information it is too soon to make any big decisions. Whatever happens I will keep progressing toward my goal. I may not be able to get there in one giant leap, but I will continue.
To use the oft quoted metaphors, there is a big training 'conveyor belt' to step on and a 'food chain' to consider thereafter. The only thing that has changed is that I now have to consider more carefully at what point and when.
I have already obtained quotes from my preferred FTO to do the rest of my hours building over here, at a premium of course. I may have to do that whilst in the comfort of my job and take a view of the market next Spring. If it's dire then distance learning comes into play and so on. Yes, I've compromised my preferred route of full-time training starting with ATPLs, but I'll still be in the game.
Frustrated yes, worried nope!
Good luck
- As both the former Soviet Union and China 'open' up there will be more airspace and destinations for the planners to consider. Those countries will slowly get richer and the take up of air travel will increase.
- Interest rates in the UK are likely to be more stable and probably lower in the next 5 years, making it easier for businesses to plan and grow. Highly relevant as the airline business is all about financing debt.
- Businesses do not 'plan' to remain the same size. Some have shareholders to please, others must strive for growth to secure their financial well-being.
- The rapid lay-off of pilots is a sign of structural flexibility. Airlines can turn on a sixpence if necessary. At the moment this is to our detriment, but when sanity returns it will be to our advantage.
- According to the Times, the Government has announced its intent to assist with the costs of security measures and insurance, so all is not lost there.
I think we are being bombarded with so much information it is too soon to make any big decisions. Whatever happens I will keep progressing toward my goal. I may not be able to get there in one giant leap, but I will continue.
To use the oft quoted metaphors, there is a big training 'conveyor belt' to step on and a 'food chain' to consider thereafter. The only thing that has changed is that I now have to consider more carefully at what point and when.
I have already obtained quotes from my preferred FTO to do the rest of my hours building over here, at a premium of course. I may have to do that whilst in the comfort of my job and take a view of the market next Spring. If it's dire then distance learning comes into play and so on. Yes, I've compromised my preferred route of full-time training starting with ATPLs, but I'll still be in the game.
Frustrated yes, worried nope!
Good luck
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WWW,
I am sorry, but I feel I have to say this.
I see your position here as moderator as a good thing, but you are NOT an expert in your field. I appreciate the time and effort that you put in here, but feel that you have become rather self important with it.
I want to ask you about two points in particular:
1) JMC recruitment. You are stating that JMC will lay off all new recruits who have not finished line training. I don't believe we have recruited anyone recently. I am very near the bottom of their list and have been assured of my position. As have the guys below me. The ONLY pilots in JMC not thru training are experienced crews who are converting to our new A330's and a handful of crews who have just retired the DC10 fleet after it served us so well. And I don't think we will be getting rid of them.....
2) What makes an ex-sponsored cadet so much better than a self sponsored 200 hour pilot? Or was it that you preffered the company of sponsored cadets because of some misguided idea within your previous employment? I paid for myself to go thru Oxford. I did as well as and indeed better than a lot of sponsored cadets. SO DID MANY OF MY CLASSMATES. I didn't seek the sponsorships because I didn't want to wait. I believed I had enough to offer from my previous experience in life, which was in the City and very close to the Pigeon economics you are spouting.
THERE IS NOTHING TO INDICATE THAT A REDUNDANT EX BA CADET WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING A JOB WITH NO TYPE RATING THAN A DECENT SELF SPONSORED CADET. INDEED, I BELIEVE THE EX CADETS WILL FIND IT HARDER COS THEY WEREN'T BANKING ON HAVING TO LOOK. WHEREAS THE SELF SPONSORED GUY WAS GEARING UP FOR A LONG SLOG ANYWAY.
So, in short:
Don't SPECULATE about other people's airlines and prospects on rubbish information, and please don't be so negative about people's chances.
A low hours pilot is a low hours pilot. It will be hard, but NOT impossible.
Oh WWW, just say the dreaded happened to you and I. We lose our jobs and are on the market. We have a few hundred hours jet time each. You on a 737 and me on a 757. Do you think we will be really marketable? I don't at all. We are as vulnerable as anyone, so don't forget that either. As a very senior Captain said to me recently (who is perhaps the best advice giver I have met) Captains are rare beasts. Co pilots are Ten a Penny. Very true me thinks.
Other than that keep up the good work.
I am sorry, but I feel I have to say this.
I see your position here as moderator as a good thing, but you are NOT an expert in your field. I appreciate the time and effort that you put in here, but feel that you have become rather self important with it.
I want to ask you about two points in particular:
1) JMC recruitment. You are stating that JMC will lay off all new recruits who have not finished line training. I don't believe we have recruited anyone recently. I am very near the bottom of their list and have been assured of my position. As have the guys below me. The ONLY pilots in JMC not thru training are experienced crews who are converting to our new A330's and a handful of crews who have just retired the DC10 fleet after it served us so well. And I don't think we will be getting rid of them.....
2) What makes an ex-sponsored cadet so much better than a self sponsored 200 hour pilot? Or was it that you preffered the company of sponsored cadets because of some misguided idea within your previous employment? I paid for myself to go thru Oxford. I did as well as and indeed better than a lot of sponsored cadets. SO DID MANY OF MY CLASSMATES. I didn't seek the sponsorships because I didn't want to wait. I believed I had enough to offer from my previous experience in life, which was in the City and very close to the Pigeon economics you are spouting.
THERE IS NOTHING TO INDICATE THAT A REDUNDANT EX BA CADET WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING A JOB WITH NO TYPE RATING THAN A DECENT SELF SPONSORED CADET. INDEED, I BELIEVE THE EX CADETS WILL FIND IT HARDER COS THEY WEREN'T BANKING ON HAVING TO LOOK. WHEREAS THE SELF SPONSORED GUY WAS GEARING UP FOR A LONG SLOG ANYWAY.
So, in short:
Don't SPECULATE about other people's airlines and prospects on rubbish information, and please don't be so negative about people's chances.
A low hours pilot is a low hours pilot. It will be hard, but NOT impossible.
Oh WWW, just say the dreaded happened to you and I. We lose our jobs and are on the market. We have a few hundred hours jet time each. You on a 737 and me on a 757. Do you think we will be really marketable? I don't at all. We are as vulnerable as anyone, so don't forget that either. As a very senior Captain said to me recently (who is perhaps the best advice giver I have met) Captains are rare beasts. Co pilots are Ten a Penny. Very true me thinks.
Other than that keep up the good work.
Thread Starter
tailscrape,
WWW,
I am sorry, but I feel I have to say this.
Don't be sorry. Free speech and all that. I'm a big boy, I won't cry.
I see your position here as moderator as a good thing, but you are NOT an expert in your field. I appreciate the time and effort that you put in here, but feel that you have become rather self important with it.
Do you?!? Please illustrate why you think that as I would hate to be perceived in such a manner widely.
No I am not an expert. Who is though? A 55yr old Skipper? Rod Eddington? Maybe. But they won't talk to Joe Wannabe will they.
I want to ask you about two points in particular:
1) JMC recruitment. You are stating that JMC will lay off all new recruits who have not finished line training. I don't believe we have recruited anyone recently. I am very near the bottom of their list and have been assured of my position. As have the guys below me. The ONLY pilots in JMC not thru training are experienced crews who are converting to our new A330's and a handful of crews who have just retired the DC10 fleet after it served us so well. And I don't think we will be getting rid of them.....
I was told by someone inside Britannia involved in recruitment that they had heard the other large Charters were following their move in exactly the same way, "JMC for sure were". Lucky perhaps that you didn't currently have an intake. Maybe they were wrong. But you see my 'objective' is being achieved - you who does know something very tangible about JMC recruitment have popped up on Wannabes and enlightened us all.
Would you have done that had it not been for reading my post...? The case for the defense rests me 'lud...
2) What makes an ex-sponsored cadet so much better than a self sponsored 200 hour pilot? Or was it that you preffered the company of sponsored cadets because of some misguided idea within your previous employment? I paid for myself to go thru Oxford. I did as well as and indeed better than a lot of sponsored cadets. SO DID MANY OF MY CLASSMATES. I didn't seek the sponsorships because I didn't want to wait. I believed I had enough to offer from my previous experience in life, which was in the City and very close to the Pigeon economics you are spouting.
Half of that is contemptable - if you think I of all people think the sun shines out of someones backside because they got sponsored once then you either know very little about my history or have not given that comment much thought.
To address your point - no they won't get an automatic bye into the next available job. It WILL be a lot harder for the good self sponsored guys as now they will be competing with hundreds of pretty good ex-sponsored guys. I have found that the average of a sponsored course is higher than the average of a self sponsored course. There is significant overlap though - resulting in the best self sponsored students being markedly superior to the worst sponsored students.
THERE IS NOTHING TO INDICATE THAT A REDUNDANT EX BA CADET WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING A JOB WITH NO TYPE RATING THAN A DECENT SELF SPONSORED CADET. INDEED, I BELIEVE THE EX CADETS WILL FIND IT HARDER COS THEY WEREN'T BANKING ON HAVING TO LOOK. WHEREAS THE SELF SPONSORED GUY WAS GEARING UP FOR A LONG SLOG ANYWAY.
An ex-sponsored cadet has a slight lead I reckon - much of which will be psychological - they've been picked from thousands once before. Just because they weren't banking on looking doesn't mean they can't get hold of an IPA newsletter and send off their CV's to every airline listed just like the self sponsored will do. They probably have more money/less debt with which to stay current in the coming months and years. Which will help.
So, in short:
Don't SPECULATE about other people's airlines and prospects on rubbish information, and please don't be so negative about people's chances.
OK then. But you concede that JMC is no longer hiring and that until last week they were a good bet for job seekers to apply to? That was the essence of what I said. I'm sure JMC will prosper and I never hinted otherwise. It would have been rude to do so. For example I have not passed on the persistent speculation in the industry about the wintering habits of the Airbus fleet.
A low hours pilot is a low hours pilot. It will be hard, but NOT impossible.
Indeed. The question is HOW hard. Thats what everyone wants to know. And thats why this thread is so valuable to the very worried wannabe out there.
Oh WWW, just say the dreaded happened to you and I. We lose our jobs and are on the market. We have a few hundred hours jet time each. You on a 737 and me on a 757. Do you think we will be really marketable? I don't at all. We are as vulnerable as anyone, so don't forget that either. As a very senior Captain said to me recently (who is perhaps the best advice giver I have met) Captains are rare beasts. Co pilots are Ten a Penny. Very true me thinks.
Thats my line! And there's no cushy instructing job for me to fall back on - Jerez is going to lose it looks like, all its Aer Lingus contract and all its BA JOC contracts. No room for me there. And I don't really fancy £10hr PPL work with my lifestyle to fund. The 2nd Porsche would have to go back almost certainly
The tone of your post seems to be wanting to bring me down a peg or two. Or am I miss-reading it?
Other than that keep up the good work.
Why, I'm flattered.
--------------------
Cheers,
WWW
[ 23 September 2001: Message edited by: Wee Weasley Welshman ]
WWW,
I am sorry, but I feel I have to say this.
Don't be sorry. Free speech and all that. I'm a big boy, I won't cry.
I see your position here as moderator as a good thing, but you are NOT an expert in your field. I appreciate the time and effort that you put in here, but feel that you have become rather self important with it.
Do you?!? Please illustrate why you think that as I would hate to be perceived in such a manner widely.
No I am not an expert. Who is though? A 55yr old Skipper? Rod Eddington? Maybe. But they won't talk to Joe Wannabe will they.
I want to ask you about two points in particular:
1) JMC recruitment. You are stating that JMC will lay off all new recruits who have not finished line training. I don't believe we have recruited anyone recently. I am very near the bottom of their list and have been assured of my position. As have the guys below me. The ONLY pilots in JMC not thru training are experienced crews who are converting to our new A330's and a handful of crews who have just retired the DC10 fleet after it served us so well. And I don't think we will be getting rid of them.....
I was told by someone inside Britannia involved in recruitment that they had heard the other large Charters were following their move in exactly the same way, "JMC for sure were". Lucky perhaps that you didn't currently have an intake. Maybe they were wrong. But you see my 'objective' is being achieved - you who does know something very tangible about JMC recruitment have popped up on Wannabes and enlightened us all.
Would you have done that had it not been for reading my post...? The case for the defense rests me 'lud...
2) What makes an ex-sponsored cadet so much better than a self sponsored 200 hour pilot? Or was it that you preffered the company of sponsored cadets because of some misguided idea within your previous employment? I paid for myself to go thru Oxford. I did as well as and indeed better than a lot of sponsored cadets. SO DID MANY OF MY CLASSMATES. I didn't seek the sponsorships because I didn't want to wait. I believed I had enough to offer from my previous experience in life, which was in the City and very close to the Pigeon economics you are spouting.
Half of that is contemptable - if you think I of all people think the sun shines out of someones backside because they got sponsored once then you either know very little about my history or have not given that comment much thought.
To address your point - no they won't get an automatic bye into the next available job. It WILL be a lot harder for the good self sponsored guys as now they will be competing with hundreds of pretty good ex-sponsored guys. I have found that the average of a sponsored course is higher than the average of a self sponsored course. There is significant overlap though - resulting in the best self sponsored students being markedly superior to the worst sponsored students.
THERE IS NOTHING TO INDICATE THAT A REDUNDANT EX BA CADET WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING A JOB WITH NO TYPE RATING THAN A DECENT SELF SPONSORED CADET. INDEED, I BELIEVE THE EX CADETS WILL FIND IT HARDER COS THEY WEREN'T BANKING ON HAVING TO LOOK. WHEREAS THE SELF SPONSORED GUY WAS GEARING UP FOR A LONG SLOG ANYWAY.
An ex-sponsored cadet has a slight lead I reckon - much of which will be psychological - they've been picked from thousands once before. Just because they weren't banking on looking doesn't mean they can't get hold of an IPA newsletter and send off their CV's to every airline listed just like the self sponsored will do. They probably have more money/less debt with which to stay current in the coming months and years. Which will help.
So, in short:
Don't SPECULATE about other people's airlines and prospects on rubbish information, and please don't be so negative about people's chances.
OK then. But you concede that JMC is no longer hiring and that until last week they were a good bet for job seekers to apply to? That was the essence of what I said. I'm sure JMC will prosper and I never hinted otherwise. It would have been rude to do so. For example I have not passed on the persistent speculation in the industry about the wintering habits of the Airbus fleet.
A low hours pilot is a low hours pilot. It will be hard, but NOT impossible.
Indeed. The question is HOW hard. Thats what everyone wants to know. And thats why this thread is so valuable to the very worried wannabe out there.
Oh WWW, just say the dreaded happened to you and I. We lose our jobs and are on the market. We have a few hundred hours jet time each. You on a 737 and me on a 757. Do you think we will be really marketable? I don't at all. We are as vulnerable as anyone, so don't forget that either. As a very senior Captain said to me recently (who is perhaps the best advice giver I have met) Captains are rare beasts. Co pilots are Ten a Penny. Very true me thinks.
Thats my line! And there's no cushy instructing job for me to fall back on - Jerez is going to lose it looks like, all its Aer Lingus contract and all its BA JOC contracts. No room for me there. And I don't really fancy £10hr PPL work with my lifestyle to fund. The 2nd Porsche would have to go back almost certainly
The tone of your post seems to be wanting to bring me down a peg or two. Or am I miss-reading it?
Other than that keep up the good work.
Why, I'm flattered.
--------------------
Cheers,
WWW
[ 23 September 2001: Message edited by: Wee Weasley Welshman ]
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Well as a Wannabe who still has a long way to go, I appreciate the likes of Tailscrape,Raw Data,WWW and IFR taking the time and trouble to offer advice and opinions.Things will get better,when and by how much is anyones guess.Perhaps as I am Distance Learning with still about 8 mths worth of study left I am in a better position than most.Whatever decision you make about your training is not going to be easy.I hope it settles down soon....somehow I think this may drag on a while. 
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WWW,
Thanks for the reply. am glad you had time to formulate one. If you perceive that I am trying to bring you down a peg or two, that's for you to decide. I know why I posted my response and I stand by that. I know enough of your background as has been posted here.
Some of your points are valid, some I still maintain are,at best very marginal indeed.
I maintain that you are painting a far too broad a brush picture of events and the potential outcomes that may arise. We, as current line pilot's could be perceived as being just a bit too smug for dishing out the advice for others less fortunate. You have experience and good ideas. Please don't over egg the pudding old boy.
I note you didn't respond to either IFR or Raw Data in the manner you responded to me. Perhaps you see the Seniority gradient there?? I have read and digested your posts with thought and note your response to me with interest. Thankyou sir.
Now, as far as we are concerned in JMC, I cannot comment as to whether we are recruiting or not. It is not my job or decision. Like you, I am a rather Junior First Officer. I would rather concentrate on flying the aircraft than speculating in public about what we may or may not do at JMC.So WWW, I can concede nothing to you at all as you asked me to do. I do not have the information at hand.
I also find it rather staggering that " contact" in Britannia should care to pass muster on what other lines are doing. We do not have the same exposures that Britannia have at all. How can they comment?
I want to deal in fact and substance in this issue. Unfortunately, rumour and fiction will not do at the minute. We are all involved in an industry devoid of confidence and buoyancy at the minute. Let's try and look for a glimmer of light rather than peering down the dark hole.
As and when JMC have anything to tell me, you can rest assured they will do it by telling me and my colleagues directly. Not other people, not this site nor indeed most pertinently anyone in Britannia Airways...
So, in short again, I maintain my stance and note everything you have said with interest again.
I still think you could do with lightening up and using your position here in a positive manner at the moment. All the guys and girls you are offering advice to.....they know how grave the situation is. They don't need to be taught how to suck eggs by a UK co pilot. They are intelligent enough to know what the score is without having put in such stark grim tones.
Thanks for the reply. am glad you had time to formulate one. If you perceive that I am trying to bring you down a peg or two, that's for you to decide. I know why I posted my response and I stand by that. I know enough of your background as has been posted here.
Some of your points are valid, some I still maintain are,at best very marginal indeed.
I maintain that you are painting a far too broad a brush picture of events and the potential outcomes that may arise. We, as current line pilot's could be perceived as being just a bit too smug for dishing out the advice for others less fortunate. You have experience and good ideas. Please don't over egg the pudding old boy.
I note you didn't respond to either IFR or Raw Data in the manner you responded to me. Perhaps you see the Seniority gradient there?? I have read and digested your posts with thought and note your response to me with interest. Thankyou sir.
Now, as far as we are concerned in JMC, I cannot comment as to whether we are recruiting or not. It is not my job or decision. Like you, I am a rather Junior First Officer. I would rather concentrate on flying the aircraft than speculating in public about what we may or may not do at JMC.So WWW, I can concede nothing to you at all as you asked me to do. I do not have the information at hand.
I also find it rather staggering that " contact" in Britannia should care to pass muster on what other lines are doing. We do not have the same exposures that Britannia have at all. How can they comment?
I want to deal in fact and substance in this issue. Unfortunately, rumour and fiction will not do at the minute. We are all involved in an industry devoid of confidence and buoyancy at the minute. Let's try and look for a glimmer of light rather than peering down the dark hole.
As and when JMC have anything to tell me, you can rest assured they will do it by telling me and my colleagues directly. Not other people, not this site nor indeed most pertinently anyone in Britannia Airways...
So, in short again, I maintain my stance and note everything you have said with interest again.
I still think you could do with lightening up and using your position here in a positive manner at the moment. All the guys and girls you are offering advice to.....they know how grave the situation is. They don't need to be taught how to suck eggs by a UK co pilot. They are intelligent enough to know what the score is without having put in such stark grim tones.