WWW,
A superbly written and reasoned argument, I feel I can't really do justice to it with a quick reply.
But, while I think about it (!) Would you not agree that what you are doing is extrapolating an accountant's short term negative and pessimistic view over a much longer period. These guys who are making the decisions are focused by the next quarter's results, not on what could be a 40 year career for someone just starting out.
You are correct when you say the industry is very different now than it was 10 years ago, but that also works in the positive sense, flying is a mass market now, everybody "jets" off to sunny places now, not just the rich and famous. I really can't see this changing in the medium or long term. Which is the timeframe that people starting their flying careers now need to think in.
More soon,