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What would you do?

Old 24th Dec 2011, 00:37
  #1 (permalink)  
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Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Ireland
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What would you do?

Ok so here it is, I'm 24 years old and have been trying to save up to do my pilot training for the past 3 years. I have traveled to new york and Australia, where I currently am, trying to save up as much as I can and now it seems like I will finally have enough to pay for my training next year and some point. Now I have been following the aviation sector for the past few years and realise that its a though place to get into and I have always said that if I had the money I would give it a go. However now that I have the money it seems a lot harder to give up.

My plan was to train in Ireland in either NFC or Atlantic air doing the integrated course. When I would have this completed I would be det free and like most people would like to get into the airlines straight away but I wouldn't mind doing some bush flying for a year or two either or to be honest i'd take anything that means flying.

So after all that my question is what would you do, go for it and take the risk or use the money for something else?
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Old 24th Dec 2011, 06:31
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KAG
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
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It seems you are well aware of the situation.
So really that's up to you.

One side: oil price is not decreasing, production of conventional oil will decrease in 2015, meanwhile western countries will have to deal with their debts for the next 10 years, and your savings might just disappear if you never find a job (but you know that right?)
The other side: you have to do something with your life anyway. Should it be aviation and nothing else, despite the difficulties? Only you have the answer.

24 years old? It means you will be in the aviation industry for 40 years, up to 2052. What do you think about 2052? Automatic airplanes like drones, and fleet reduced anyway because of the energy crisis? Highly possible right?

I don't see this job as a career for the next 40 years. Keep your money, get an extremely cheap CPL in north america (Canada and Australia are hiring a bit right now in general aviation) with maybe an instructor rating and save you money, build up your career from there and see where it goes. If you leave it, you won't regret it as you actually had the opportunity to work as a pilot without spending your savings.

Don't aim at something without propeller whith a brand new CPL licence, for many reasons.
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Old 24th Dec 2011, 08:15
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Join Date: Sep 1999
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How is NFC doing these days?? I was one of KOC's original students way back in the days of C, B and K. Then flying was fun
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Old 24th Dec 2011, 08:19
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Cheers KAG,

2052 is scary to think of alright.

NFC seems to be doing well, it started a new integrated course this year. However Weston airport where its based is currently been sold as far as I know.
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Old 25th Dec 2011, 07:51
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I agree that there will always be air travel, but the question we have to ask ourselves is: how big will it be? Will it be 50% of what it is now? Will high speed rail have taken over regional flights?

To the topic starter: If I was in the same situation as you I'd probably go for it. But at the same time I'd be ready to take any JOB (no p2f) like you state. Just make sure you can live and keep your licences current after the flight training.
I'd also be looking to get FAA licences. They are accepted everywhere in the world except Europe, and even then, with expierence you can convert them.
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Old 26th Dec 2011, 06:14
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KAG
 
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Poeli:
I agree that there will always be air travel, but the question we have to ask ourselves is: how big will it be? Will it be 50% of what it is now? Will high speed rail have taken over regional flights?
Good question indeed.





Mighty ducks:
Cheers KAG,

2052 is scary to think of alright.
It's not scary if you look at it today without denial (denial: there will always have aviation like in 2011, there will always have dinosaurs on earth, we will have more and more oil, if we have no oil we will use peanut butter...) and know how to adapt. I believe, I could be wrong, that pilot is a career of the past. Investing today 100 000 Euros in this game looks a bit like gambling to me.

The flight school are here to make business, the boss/manager wants to "hire" you to avoid a second mortgage. Keep it in mind when they promise you a great future and pilot shortage in aviation.
In the 80s drones were not used, look at today in the army: it's changing fast.
Being optimistic doesn't mean to beleive "world is fix and not changing" and doesn't mean "no need to take hard decisions everything will be fine", but being optimistic means beleiving in life and happiness, whatever the path you choose.
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Old 26th Dec 2011, 22:15
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Join Date: Nov 2011
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I`m already in pilot training and I`m thinking about quitting and going for career in business or in something else. I`m afraid that I will lose my time by trying to build career in these conditions.
In next 10 or 15 year we will have drones and we will have even more unemployed pilots on market.
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Old 26th Dec 2011, 22:47
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KAG, if that's the way you feel, why are you still a pilot?
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Old 27th Dec 2011, 00:20
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Join Date: Dec 2011
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Drones...lol
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Old 27th Dec 2011, 05:11
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I dont think it will be any drones for a while.
Even in military they use them only as "fly over" for spying or dropping bombs.
They use quite a while to program it on the ground, before the flight. And then someone still monitoring it and steering it. Main reason for usage of drones, is to save lives, in case they got shoot down.

Its a looong looong time before they trust 300-400 lives into computer with no one to operate it.
Reality now is that pilots is more of "system operators". How much of real navigation (using flight computer, conversion angle formulas and grid navigation) does pilots do now day? Nothing? And what about calculating length of the runway?
What we have now is kind of "drones", with pilots to operate them. 1 to operate and 1 as a back up. And as I said, I cant see it being different anytime in the near future.

Oil and stuff is different thing. Although they find new ways to get oil all the time. And Im pretty sure they will find another good sources for energy.

Anything we do in our lives is some form of risk. Any decision we take. In my opinion it well worth the risk, using your savings to become a pilot. But its all up to you.
No one here will be able to tell you for sure, how aviation gonna be in 5 years, 20 years or 40 years from now.
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Old 27th Dec 2011, 12:49
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Cefey

Your analysis is very right. Drones have no passengers in their cabin!
I believe they told us they could be going down to one pilot by 2035 and maybe no pilot at all by 2060.(There used to be 4 men on a flight deck, then 3, now only 2) But the thing is it's going to take time, I mean people are already scared enough to take a plane with 2 pilots, let alone just one, or none at all!

Mutt

Your question makes no sense at all KAG has already made his career and there are still some jobs for experienced pilots willing to relocate, which he did. But for someone new to the game, starting commercial training may not be the wise thing to do due to the current market situation, especially for low hour guys.

Mighty Ducks

Go for it, but please go do you commercial training in north america, and see from there. If you're going to be unemployed for a while, might as well have spent only half the money you are about to let go. Converting to EASA later on when you have enough hours will be allright. But for now, there are no jobs in Europe anyway, even for experienced pilots.
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Old 27th Dec 2011, 14:26
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Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Ireland
Age: 32
Posts: 83
I was considering doing my training with EFT who seem to get good reviews from people. the only thing I see is that I would have to do my IR back home which doesn't make the savings that attractive. They also have a course where they take you on as a FI for one year after training so i'm looking into that at the moment too.

As for not getting work straight off the bat after training (as a pilot) it doesn't concern me greatly as i'm in a fortunate position to have work if I really need it, it may mean travelling but i'll do what it takes.
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Old 27th Dec 2011, 15:16
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They also have a course where they take you on as a FI for one year after training so i'm looking into that at the moment too.
You have to undertake a full year of training first to be eligible for OPT and OPT is entirely that - Optional. There is no assurance that any Flight School will offer 100% OPT. Imagine 50 Students - are they really going to take all 50 on for OPT? During the year of OPT, you pay your living expenses, medical coverage etc and you only get any form of payment if you are actually working - not sat on the bench.
Just be aware that it can become expensive.
Plus you would require FAA certificates - CPL, CFI/I etc not just JAA.
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Old 27th Dec 2011, 15:39
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Join Date: Jan 2011
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I guess EFT could be an option even if I don't know them. Now, if I wanna learn about cooking spaghetti, I would go to Italy. If I want to learn about making sushi, I would go to Japan.
So to me FAA licence; USA JAA licence; Euroland. If I had to make a choice, I would take the quickest, least expensive, and the one that could allow me to maintain my ratings with the least headache.
But then again, it is your money, not mine!
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Old 28th Dec 2011, 09:27
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KAG,

I have a family member who works in the energy industry...he always chuckles when people bang on about Peak Oil Theory, and I can assure you he is not in denial. He just happens to know the facts.

Like, for the past forty years, the global oil industry has had forty years of oil reserves.

Reserve = an economically exploitable resource.
Resource = an geologically confirmed source.

And guess how many oil reserves exist today...yep...forty years. The clue is the "economically exploitable" bit. There is an abundance of resource and more is being discovered all the time...the problem is the cost of getting at it versus the cost of selling it. Thus the amount of oil in the world is always primarily determined by the cost of a barrel of oil.

When will it run out? I have no idea...and neither do you. Denial has **** all to do with it.
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Old 28th Dec 2011, 09:30
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KAG
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
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I said don't invest all your savings like a sick player going to the casino and coming back the morning with nothing.

Most of the times for the new comers gambling 100 000 Euro in this game is not worth it when you know a good part of the new CPL holders never find a job, and it won't get better in the future.

Drone carrying passengers? Who said that? We speak about technology here. It has already started: how many cockpit crew needed to carry 100 passengers in the 60s and today? If you think technology will stop today and airplanes with only one pilot will never exist, you are fooling yourselves.

Concerning fuel, denial is the rule in our industry. It is either "there is enough fuel" either ""they" (who???) will find something else".
We want to beleive energy could be replaced by our technology. Energy is energy, it cannot be replaced, technology only helps to use energy, not create it.
Food/vegetables to replace oil? Sci fi. We need agriculture to feed people ( 7 billions now)
Sun energy? To put this energy in a A380 to fly 15 hours you would need to be extremely rich to buy a ticket if possible at all.
Other? Please enlight us.


Its hard to believe aviation will continue to grow the same way it has this last past century with cheap oil and world fast economy growth based also on cheap oil.
Let's consider the possibility that Aviation remains stable for an other 5/10 years (if no major economic crisis), then follow the fuel price trend (officially conventional fuel will decrease in 2015 according to oil experts worldwide), it means this career is on the down slope.

But today this career already is a big struggle for most of the new CPLs (better in Canada/Australia right now), and we already have thousands of CPLs who will never find a job, and thousands of others who are right now paying to fly through scam like Eagle jet and co with no guaranty on the future, obviously. Pay to work is a booming field, wonder why? We don't need to be very bright to understand we are experiencing the exact opposit of "pilot shortage".

Asia hires mainly local people, so you are not directly concerned (of course we have exceptions, but in my company more than 90% are local people, and more than 99% of new employees are local people), so forget about the hiring forecast published by the training industry.


That's why I gave you the advice in my first post here to get a cheap CPL, and find a work on light aircraft, and from there see where it goes.

Too many young guys have already spent all what they, their parents and grand parents can possibly borrow because the kid have the childish dream to fly "jet" right now whatever the price.
For more and more youngs individuals their dream career has became a bad dream.

Warning people should be the priority from the ones who already know the industry, how dangerous it could be with the new CPLs brainwashed by the training industry.



Finally, Mighty Ducks, are you serious with this question?
So after all that my question is what would you do, go for it and take the risk or use the money for something else?
If we speak about 100 000 Euro, I would say stay away and invest it, continue your day job that seems to be well paid and continue to save/invest money.
I don't beleive you will listen to me, so I hope you will stay on PPRuNe for some years and update us on your project.

Most of the times we give advices, the young guy replies he will train anyway, then most of the time we never here again about him.
Please come back here after your training and let us know if our advices were appropiate or not, give us some feed back.

If you really want to know the truth, have a look at the thread that speaks about unemployement, many posters admit they have been trying to find a job for years without success. Don't let the ones so happy for having found one and cannot wait to tell us their success story to forget about reality.
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Old 28th Dec 2011, 09:37
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KAG
 
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The old fat one:

I have a family member who works in the energy industry...
Great for him. Millions of people work in the energy industry.

All the worldwild experts agree that the conventionnal oil has already or will soon decrease (so it will make oil more expensive), that's not even a debat. All government agencies, armies, experts in the most important country in the world already agree. Seems your family member is one train late. Is he a world recognize expert anyway? Because we all have familly member expert in everything you know... I am not one, but I can read what the real experts are telling us. If your family member is an expert in the field, it means he/she already has written something on the matter, do you have a link? It could be interesting after all.

When will it run out?
Nobody in this thread wrote we will run out of oil.
It has been said: conventional oil production is decreasing (or is about to), which automatically means oil more expensive, which affects aviation and its pretended future growth.
Not being able to admit it is pure denial.
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Old 28th Dec 2011, 10:28
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what would you do, go for it and take the risk or use the money for something else?
What I would, or what anyone else would do is frankly irrelevant. It all depends on your personal economic situation, location and personal motivations.

Sorry to be abrupt but there it is. What i feel you are asking is, is it worth investing in becoming a pilot with the potential investment/return appropriate with a minimal amount of risk to your investment.

Right now, the industry is having probably one of the hardest times ever, GA is on it's arse so when people suggest building time on a corporate jet before going to an airline, they are talking through their rectums. Getting on a corporate jet is the same deal as with any other paying job on the flight deck; get to the back of the line.

I use that term 'paying job' deliberately as the only chances right now are for you to pay to fly. can you afford that after paying for your licences and keeping current ?

As noted previously, there are reams of pilots in Europe looking for jobs, many with significant hours, type ratings and time on type. So the question is going overseas to build time, well yes there is that option, but again, get to the back of the line there buddy.

Overseas job demands are another case in itself. limited prospects, limited scope (big demand for captains while the locals crews build up the experience and start to push the ex-pats out, reductions on the capacity to employ ex-pats in order to protect local employment etc etc ad nauseum.

The answers to your questions are found in this forum, but will be found by reading the T&E forum.

Ask yourself, why do you want to be a pilot ?

I am sick and tired of hearing that hackneyed old expression from ab-intios that 'i love to fly'. If you love flying don't become an airline pilot. The job, the lifestyle ? it isn't what it was. The reason for most people it seems is that they are in love with the idea of what they think it is. And then this 'dream' is enforced by by the sales lines and marketing of the FTO's.

Rather than looking in the wannabes forums (which if anything is searching for confirmation bias to countermand what your gut is telling you) spend 3-6 months reading and taking in the T&E forum. Then you can formulate a decision based what is right for you.

*good luck*
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Old 28th Dec 2011, 10:39
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Join Date: Jan 2008
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KAG,

I didn't look to pick a fight. I'm not a tub thumper/bar basher. People who make such catergoric, polemic statements generally struggle with credibility (and often have their own issues with denial).

Another point (which many industry experts also agree on). Discussion about energy is rarely scientific or economic...it is nearly always political and therefore rarely a reflection of absolute truth.

I didn't claim my family member was an expert; just that he works in energy (at the doctoral level). That mean he knows more than me about energy (as I know know more than him about aviation), so I defer to him on matter thus. It's only logical. Nor did he say anthing about "running out" or "production". He merely pointed out that oil reserves have not changed in past forty years and that the quantity of oil reserves is determined almost entirely by the market price. A point so well established it does not need a reference.

If you disagree..no problem. It's a free world.


Incidentally, much of what you write I agree with...but dial down the rhetoric a little, and try and encompass other points of view. That way your arguments will carry a little more weight.
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Old 28th Dec 2011, 11:22
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Join Date: Mar 2010
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Age: 32
Posts: 83
Cheers for the replys so far,

I will take the advice given here on board but you have to understand that for the last 4/5 years I have been working hard and saving every penny I made towards becoming a pilot and its not just a matter of just saying "ok i'll do something else". I did my best some years ago to try and give up on the whole pilot career but it just pulled me back in. I know that a pilot is what I want to do but then again I don't want to throw my life away, i'm only getting one go around.....

I think I have to look at it as, am I willing throw 70 plus euro away, not an easy decision to make.

I have been on this website for some years now and I read as much as I can in every section even though some of it I belive to be complete , most is good info.

Oh and if I do go ahead with my training I will stay on here, be it goes well or is a nightmare, IF.
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