Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Joined: Oct 2007
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From: Cambridge
Just out of curiosity why does everyone believe that airlines are going to go for experienced pilots first. Think about it, why hire an experienced pilot who you are going to have to pay comensurate with that experience (at least that's what the pilot would expect) when you can hire someone straight out of flight school and pay them a hell of a lot less to do the same job. Or am I completely wrong on that one 
That said I think any wannabee's who start training now are completely nuts. There will not be many jobs out there for any of you. I personally have decided to give the training a miss. I'm in a stable job at the moment so becoming a pilot in current market conditions is going to have to stay a pipe dream.
That said I think any wannabee's who start training now are completely nuts. There will not be many jobs out there for any of you. I personally have decided to give the training a miss. I'm in a stable job at the moment so becoming a pilot in current market conditions is going to have to stay a pipe dream.
Joined: Mar 2005
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From: UK
Or am I completely wrong on that one
You cant just hire someone out of flight school. The airline has sort out safety, crm, typerating, base training, line training etc. That all costs ~£50K
Where as experienced pilots already typerated only have to do a short sim course for sompany SOPs. So whilst an experienced pilot costs maybe 10K more in salary, they are far cheaper in training and far less risk (as student could fail all mentioned courses above = £££££)
Joined: Aug 1999
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From: England
Or am I completely wrong on that one
Most airlines work on pay scales related to time in the company (plus rank and type operated) which means that a company pays a new F/O the same amount regardless of where they come from.
(which incidentally is why the pilot workforce is so immobile and just has to take it up the arse whenever management feels like it)
pb
Last edited by Capt Pit Bull; 12th September 2008 at 10:33. Reason: being a chimp
PPRuNe Secret Agent!
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Joined: Nov 1999
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From: West Sussex, UK
Just out of curiosity why does everyone believe that airlines are going to go for experienced pilots first. Think about it, why hire an experienced pilot who you are going to have to pay comensurate with that experience (at least that's what the pilot would expect) when you can hire someone straight out of flight school and pay them a hell of a lot less to do the same job. Or am I completely wrong on that one
I know many good guys/gals that i've worked with over the years who are with XL, stressful times for those involved.
Bottom line for guys now with fATPL and <200 hours - make no bones about it, you're not employable for about 4 years+, stark reality, find other work and do your best to keep current.
It will turnaround, I personally have been through this twice before - what will be interesting is how the industry will look in 4-5 years from now...with BIG mergers on boardroom tables now...how many employers will you have to choose from?!?
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 40
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From: Cambridge
Sorry I think I was misunderstood. When I said flight school I was talking about someone fresh out the gate with a type rating.
So what we're saying is that if you have two pilots, one with a couple of thousand hours on type and one with with a fresh type rating the company would pay them the same. Would the guy with more experience not expect a lot more at least in terms of career progression
By the way I don't want to sound like an accountant here as I certainly feel for all the pilots who are struggling and I hope they all get sorted as soon as possible but I'm just thinking that airlines are run by people like Mr O'Leary and is this how they would be viewing it
So what we're saying is that if you have two pilots, one with a couple of thousand hours on type and one with with a fresh type rating the company would pay them the same. Would the guy with more experience not expect a lot more at least in terms of career progression
By the way I don't want to sound like an accountant here as I certainly feel for all the pilots who are struggling and I hope they all get sorted as soon as possible but I'm just thinking that airlines are run by people like Mr O'Leary and is this how they would be viewing it
Joined: Aug 2003
Aviation Qualifications: ATPL
Posts: 236
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From: About
Bombs away he may expect more but its what the company is willing to pay that dictates your pay. Its a fairly easy choice when you can either starve and lose your house or take a job at less/slightly less than your were earning.
As to a 200 hour kid with type rating makes stuff all difference as they still dont have time on type, which is what counts. Still much harder to train guys with low hours and a shiny new type rating than a guy with thousands of hours on type!
As someone said amount of pay is determined by time in company only a very few operators vary pay according to experience and that is normally in private/business jet ops.
As to a 200 hour kid with type rating makes stuff all difference as they still dont have time on type, which is what counts. Still much harder to train guys with low hours and a shiny new type rating than a guy with thousands of hours on type!
As someone said amount of pay is determined by time in company only a very few operators vary pay according to experience and that is normally in private/business jet ops.
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 218
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From: between a rock and a hard place
Well XL going bust has put the final nail in the coffin for me. Why bother continuing with training? I sometimes fly with an XL Captain in fact he instructed me for my night rating, lovely bloke, excellent pilot and now job hunting. Him and many, many others. These guys are low risk and readily employable. What chance do newly qualified peeps have?
I will get the ATPLS finished as I am 3/4 of the way there but then sit on my arse back in the day job for another 2 years before I absolutely have to do the CPL/IR. Is it 3 years from the date of the last exam to get the CPL/IR done or is there more that needs doing in this time or is it just the IR?
Thank fu*k I haven't just started an Integrated course.
Good Luck folks and deepest sympathy with all the XL Leisure Group employees.
MFWF
I will get the ATPLS finished as I am 3/4 of the way there but then sit on my arse back in the day job for another 2 years before I absolutely have to do the CPL/IR. Is it 3 years from the date of the last exam to get the CPL/IR done or is there more that needs doing in this time or is it just the IR?
Thank fu*k I haven't just started an Integrated course.
Good Luck folks and deepest sympathy with all the XL Leisure Group employees.
MFWF
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 28
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From: Ireland
be grand for inetgrated students who have a dammm good contingincy plan...When i say this, there would need to be a job waiting for them in that particular industry..
Working in tescos or sainsbury's wnt cut this slack....
Working in tescos or sainsbury's wnt cut this slack....
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 650
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From: Europe
Alitalia perhaps the next to go? That will flood the european market with even more experienced pilots!
Think about it, ........... Alitalia, SkyEurope, the creepy huge AirBerlin group
Austrian Group won't have any more funds by mid-2009 if no one buys them up until then too.....
hope LH goes for it.
Joined: Apr 2008
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From: tahiti
Alitalia perhaps the next to go? That will flood the european market with even more experienced pilots
There's a thread on Airliners about failed negociations but I think that it is very pessimistic. The way I see it, they are putting pressure on the unions and giving them the "what if it's really the end?". Because frankly, they don't need the ok of the unions to do this, they can bust everyone and rehire them one by one.
If Alitalia goes down, it will be very unfortunate for the job market as around 3000 pilots will come on the market.
It's too early to say that it's worse than 9/11... unless AZ really collapses. In the aftermath of 9/11 the Sabena-Swissair collapse put thousands of pilots on the market.
Think about it, ........... Alitalia, SkyEurope, the creepy huge AirBerlin group
Air Berlin is not likely.
Joined: Jun 2008
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From: Just a bit lower than the point where the falling angel meets the rising ape
The year's not over yet...
And winter comes!
That link is interesting. F'rinstance, 2003 was the worst year for name changes and suspending flights. Out of 58, 20 of them were mergers or name changes, so presumably 38 carriers going pop.
This year so far, 53 in total, with 6 mergers, so presumably 47 carriers going pop or thereabouts.
The totals for the other years don't exceed 42, and that was in 2001 (perhaps unsurprisingly)
That link is interesting. F'rinstance, 2003 was the worst year for name changes and suspending flights. Out of 58, 20 of them were mergers or name changes, so presumably 38 carriers going pop.
This year so far, 53 in total, with 6 mergers, so presumably 47 carriers going pop or thereabouts.
The totals for the other years don't exceed 42, and that was in 2001 (perhaps unsurprisingly)
PPRuNe Secret Agent!
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Joined: Nov 1999
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From: West Sussex, UK
I believe someone else called you an asshole recently?
Guys/Gals, I've actually agreed with WWW's and others predictions throughout, but from a different prospective, i've been in this industry longer than them, what you're experiencing now is what you are gonna see a few times (to say the least) in say, a 30 year flying career in the UK! You need to accept that, no sense of humour, go work in a bank - I started work in this industry in 1989, it's soooo different now...the good times will return...it's more of a case of what the industry has to offer - 5/6 UK airlines???!!!!
Joined: Feb 2000
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From: England
There's not much merit in a big debate about who was right, said what when and whatnot. I didn't mind in the slightest that people expounded very different views to me on the housing market, the general economy and the likely future state of the Wannabe employment market. I welcomed those debates because they were the most engaging way of illustrating the issues to Wannabes. That illustration was all I wanted to provide.
Things are coming to pass pretty much as I expected and that causes me nothing but sadness and concern. There's nothing to say that my own employment aspirations will not be seriously scuppered by the coming storm.
By the winter of 2009 I think we will probably be at the bottom and from there on I expect a plateau and then eventually an upturn followed by a boom.
What remains to be done now by all Wannabes is to manage the situation as best as possible. Those that avoided the worst debt obligations and those that can slow down their training will be best placed. As far as that goes I'm pleased that my - and others - advice along those lines has been shown to be good.
To this point I was highly confident of what was going to happen. From this point on my crystal ball is frustratingly cloudy. As such my ability to give advice is much diminished.
What I can offer in an unreserved fashion is my sympathy if you are going to be hurt by all this.
There is more to come. Willie Walsh is on Sky News as I type predicting another 30 EU airlines to go bust in the next 12 months.
BA won't be one of them and I see very little reason for Walsh to be spinning a line to the benefit of his company.
The good times will return.
WWW
Things are coming to pass pretty much as I expected and that causes me nothing but sadness and concern. There's nothing to say that my own employment aspirations will not be seriously scuppered by the coming storm.
By the winter of 2009 I think we will probably be at the bottom and from there on I expect a plateau and then eventually an upturn followed by a boom.
What remains to be done now by all Wannabes is to manage the situation as best as possible. Those that avoided the worst debt obligations and those that can slow down their training will be best placed. As far as that goes I'm pleased that my - and others - advice along those lines has been shown to be good.
To this point I was highly confident of what was going to happen. From this point on my crystal ball is frustratingly cloudy. As such my ability to give advice is much diminished.
What I can offer in an unreserved fashion is my sympathy if you are going to be hurt by all this.
There is more to come. Willie Walsh is on Sky News as I type predicting another 30 EU airlines to go bust in the next 12 months.
BA won't be one of them and I see very little reason for Walsh to be spinning a line to the benefit of his company.The good times will return.
WWW
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 344
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From: Scottish FIR
Is this the worse period the airline industry has seen yet?
Which period was worse than this one?
Which period was worse than this one?
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 1,167
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From: Location: Location:
Travel companies and locos/airlines have had it good for maybe 3-5 years, this introduces entrepreneurial aspirations in management so you see start ups/aquisitions and expansion.
Problem being everybody wants/needs a bite of the apple, XL/Zoom/Futura in their failing whilst incredibly unfortunate actually goes some way to helping the future of the others.
Larger airlines will lick their wounds, nobody will be daft enough to make inroads into the remaining reducing capacity whilst they do so.
Over the next 5-7 years prices will firm up, positive profits will stabilise on the reduced capacity, until such times as the streamlined profits and entrepreneurial spirit will return and start ups, aquisitions and expansion will come around again.
Bombs Away
Airlines should aspire to have a "standard distribution" of experience, imagine a bell shape in profile in the bottom left is a small area of inexperienced crew, the thick bit in the middle contains upgradeable SFO's and FO's and expereienced captains with a few crusty pending retirees in the bottom right hand corner. This has safety benefits, personnel benefits and prevents direct entry commands promotes internal promotion and gives beancounters a target for early retirement and or voluntary redundancy in said bottom rh corner
Airlines like Ryanair have huge experience gaps which is why they revert to the contract market regularly and have the crewing reputation that they do.
Sympathies to XL crews lets not forget the unfortunate zoom and futura crews that already seem like yesterdays news
Problem being everybody wants/needs a bite of the apple, XL/Zoom/Futura in their failing whilst incredibly unfortunate actually goes some way to helping the future of the others.
Larger airlines will lick their wounds, nobody will be daft enough to make inroads into the remaining reducing capacity whilst they do so.
Over the next 5-7 years prices will firm up, positive profits will stabilise on the reduced capacity, until such times as the streamlined profits and entrepreneurial spirit will return and start ups, aquisitions and expansion will come around again.
Bombs Away
Airlines should aspire to have a "standard distribution" of experience, imagine a bell shape in profile in the bottom left is a small area of inexperienced crew, the thick bit in the middle contains upgradeable SFO's and FO's and expereienced captains with a few crusty pending retirees in the bottom right hand corner. This has safety benefits, personnel benefits and prevents direct entry commands promotes internal promotion and gives beancounters a target for early retirement and or voluntary redundancy in said bottom rh corner
Airlines like Ryanair have huge experience gaps which is why they revert to the contract market regularly and have the crewing reputation that they do.
Sympathies to XL crews lets not forget the unfortunate zoom and futura crews that already seem like yesterdays news