Something "big" at Cirrus

[S-Works]

The journey to the whole PPL/IR with a type rating is very nontrivial. (ATPL exams in Europe).

Incorrect. To gain the type rating as a PPL you would need the IR with the exams and then High Performance Aircraft exams which are a couple of days including the ground school and taken at the training FTO. A pass in the ATPL exams just saves you the HPA.

[172driver]

I think a lot of you here see this way too much from the European perspective. I don't know, but my guess is that Cirrus see European sales as an extra bonus - the real money is elsewhere. In the US there are plenty of pilots with both the money and the experience to fly one of these things. And paved runways aren't really a problem either.

Another thing: let's face it, a jet is A LOT more sexy than any piston. If you had the money and lived in the US what would you buy - a TBM or a Jet? Most likely, no contest. I can definitely see a market for this one in the US for owner/pilots who use their machine for business and pleasure, two-up max and medium range. IOW below the various light jets. Then there is China....

[Hodja]

Then there is China....

No, not at the moment.

Non-scheduled civilian flying is currently not allowed in mainland China airspace. This will eventually change, but it'll be a very far cry from the aviation freedoms some people take for granted in the West.

Also the usual magazine nonsense often reported about the booming crowd of Chinese millionaires on a buying spree is a red herring. We're talking small numbers, and nowhere close to the kind of wealthy individuals and corporate Lears/Gulfstreams/Falcon/GEX found in the US.

[AdamFrisch]

Pipistrel is the most interesting company around at the moment. Not only did they manage to get 55mpg out of the new Virus, but the damn little LSA cruises at 147kts!

They also won the NASA green challenge with their super efficient electric aircraft. Try finding a car, any car, that can drive 100mph for 250miles whilst burning a single gallon of gas. Shows what a great future might lie ahead for electric. Pipistrel is at the very forefront here and they don't think old fashioned like all the rest. The Panthera looks great and I'm sure will be a huge seller. But what I'm most excited about is the electric version and the hybrid Panthera versions - they will be truly modern.

My prediction is this - by the time turbine manufacturers get their heads out of their a**es and come around to finally offer viable options for small GA aircraft - the game will already be over. Electric will already be the prime mover.

[peterh337]

I agree with 172driver but I would still be suprised to see Cirrus selling numbers which way exceed say the TBM or Jetprop etc sales.

But they will need to do so to make it worth their while.

A while ago I met a chap at a conference who was very closely involved with the Eclipse project from Day 1, at a high level. He totally rubbished all of the marketing numbers the company came out with at various times, especially the "air taxi" stuff. I don't suppose he was Vern Rayburn's greatest fan but then neither were the huge numbers of deposit holders who got totally conned in what I think can be described as a a legit version of a Ponzi scam

But Eclipse spent countless millions on marketing, and at a time when there was more money about. They did attract a lot of position holders but only at a ludicrously low delivery price. Sure you could sell positions all day for a twin jet with a $800k delivery price

I just don't think the market is there for hundreds a year. Sure a jet is much more sexy than a TP but twin engine jets are two a penny, and even if you throw half a million at one to refurb the cockpit with the latest glass you will still not be above the $2M (possibly nearer to 3M) which the Cirrus jet will go for by the time it is out.

People who buy this stuff are not stupid. They know what they can get for how much and they know the performance tradeoffs. If there was a magical hidden market there, what the hell are all those people flying?

They are flying "something" pretty good already. They are not doing their PPLs.

They are not flying pistons. Most piston owners who fly old pistons are relatively broke (which is why they fly old planes; they didn't have the capital) and couldn't even pay for the jet engine overhaul Those that fly new stuff don't have millions and probably bought at the top of what they could afford.

They are already flying turboprops, I reckon, and that gives you a measure of the market. The problem is that the Cirrus jet is not going to deliver anything over a decent TP - apart from sex appeal. But I think sex appeal appeals mainly to the proverbial banker / hedge fund manager / etc and there aren't enough of those about. The turboprop scene is doing well for the existing players but I don't think there is any factor-of-10 upside there to be unearthed.

[achimha]

Most piston owners who fly old pistons are relatively broke (which is why they fly old planes; they didn't have the capital) and couldn't even pay for the jet engine overhaul Those that fly new stuff don't have millions and probably bought at the top of what they could afford.

The best way to become a wealthy individual is to make wise financial decisions. I know several pilots that could easily afford just about anything that can be legally operated with a single pilot but they choose something smaller.

I am totally in love with the Extra 500 but even if I could afford it at € 1.3m + VAT, I would probably not do it. A reasonable Silver Eagle (Cessna P210 Turbine) sells for about €600k. It's an old design, the pressurized cabin isn't that great at all and you need blankets on the back seat but the price difference is huge.

PS: Just got back from the AERO show in Friedrichshafen. Very much worth a visit this year, general attitude among exhibitors and visitors is a lot more positive. I was totally shocked when I saw that the UK CAA had a booth there! Their goal was to inform about the London 2012 airspace restrictions. The highlight of the show was the Diamond DA52 IMO.

[007helicopter]

I would not doubt that Cirrus could outsell the TBM (38) but I don't see a market for hundreds. Where would the money be coming from?

Before the Jet project was put on hold / stalled due to the credit crunch Cirrus had taken around 500 x $100K deposits from mainly the existing Cirrus community, so the theory was fine then, The originator Alan Klapmeir had a vision for many more sales than this and at the time who could have doubted him.

The world and Cirrus loyalty has changed now so it will be a much bigger challenge to get the volume.

[peterh337]

To be fair, anybody can come up with $100k to buy a position, knowing they can sell it on easily enough if they want to back out. In almost any such project there is a cost escalation and the position buys you a fixed price (usually) which is where the investment value lies. Consequently there is a huge speculative element in this kind of thing.

I don't think the world has changed. What has mainly changed is that people are not so stupid as they were when Rayburn was taking deposits Most of those who took positions didn't have a clue about aviation or aircraft; if they did they would have realised the project was infeasible at the original price levels.

Maybe in 20 years' time one will be able to do another large scale con...

[Hodja]

The best way to become a wealthy individual is to make wise financial decisions.

I am totally in love with the Extra 500 but even if I could afford it at €1.3m + VAT, I would probably not do it.

Precisely. There's just a certain limit to frivolous spending & diminishing returns on satisfaction. C'mon, the most enjoyable trips I've ever taken certainly weren't done in the fastest or most expensive aircraft. Enjoyment doesn't scale well w/cost or speed.

Not to mention that you really need the *time* to fly these USD1m+ aircraft. The TP & jet owners I know are all either (semi-) retired and/or use their aircraft actively for business. If I had a USD3m+ TBM850 sitting idle on the ramp 95% of the time, I'd be friggin' miserable on a daily basis.

[421C]

I just don't think the market is there for hundreds a year

No-one is saying there is. I don't think any light turbine aircraft has ever consistantly sold hundreds a year. There is a rather big difference between hundreds a year and the dismal negativity in the start of this thread. I was reacting to the "why would anyone buy one when they could get a used XYZ instead". When did selling hundreds a year become the discussion? Is the Cirrus jet a bad decision and a bad airplane because it won't miraculously become the best selling GA turbine airplane of all time?

They know what they can get for how much and they know the performance tradeoffs. If there was a magical hidden market there, what the hell are all those people flying?

Lucky the Cirrus guys didn't consult PPRUNE when they launched the SRxx 10 years ago. They's have been told there was already a solution for every need the SRxx met within the existing new and used plane market. Forgive me, but I suspect you'd have mentioned the TB20 in this respect. Nevertheless the SRxx sold 5000 airframes in the next 10 years whilst the legacy competitors sold a tiny trickle and stopped manufacturing (Socata TBs, Mooney). I believe there is a market for the "Cirrus Proposition", self-evidently in the $700k piston world and I suspect there will be in $2m turbine world. It's not evident in PPRUNE or FLYER forums because we tend to represent an oddball mix of plane preferences. Cirrus buyers I imagine don't post here much because of the generally hostile reaction to Cirrus aircraft and owners and marketing and whatever. Nevertheless, Cirrus sold more airplanes in the 2000s than, I suspect, the world total of piston products from Piper, Beech, Socata, Cessna, Mooney etc etc in the previous decade.

As I said, as much as I respect the company and the aircraft, a new SR22 is about the last way I'd spend $700k on aircraft. But that reflects my relatively oddball preferences compared to the mainstream new airplane market. I think forum opinion has a way of thinking it is the latter when it is the former.


ps. can anyone actually point to a mythical victim-of-cirrus-marketing ferrari driving hedge fund bloke who bought a Cirrus? Every owner I have met is a sensible, successful, knowledgeable pilot in their 40s-60s, usually active or retired professional or entrepreneur. I rather respect someone capable of buying a new $700k airplane, and have never come across the fool-deluded-by-marketing-flies-with-his-hand-on-the-CAPS-handle type a certain sort of poster here seems to assume is representative.