I agree with 172driver but I would still be suprised to see Cirrus selling numbers which way exceed say the TBM or Jetprop etc sales.
But they will need to do so to make it worth their while.
A while ago I met a chap at a conference who was very closely involved with the Eclipse project from Day 1, at a high level. He totally rubbished all of the marketing numbers the company came out with at various times, especially the "air taxi" stuff. I don't suppose he was Vern Rayburn's greatest fan but then neither were the huge numbers of deposit holders who got totally conned in what I think can be described as a a legit version of a Ponzi scam
But Eclipse spent countless millions on marketing, and at a time when there was more money about. They did attract a lot of position holders but only at a ludicrously low delivery price. Sure you could sell positions all day for a twin jet with a $800k delivery price
I just don't think the market is there for hundreds a year. Sure a jet is much more sexy than a TP but twin engine jets are two a penny, and even if you throw half a million at one to refurb the cockpit with the latest glass you will still not be above the $2M (possibly nearer to 3M) which the Cirrus jet will go for by the time it is out.
People who buy this stuff are not stupid. They know what they can get for how much and they know the performance tradeoffs. If there was a magical hidden market there, what the hell are all those people flying?
They are flying "something" pretty good already. They are not doing their PPLs.
They are not flying pistons. Most piston owners who fly old pistons are relatively broke (which is why they fly old planes; they didn't have the capital) and couldn't even pay for the jet engine overhaul
Those that fly new stuff don't have millions and probably bought at the top of what they could afford.
They are already flying turboprops, I reckon, and that gives you a measure of the market. The problem is that the Cirrus jet is not going to deliver anything over a decent TP - apart from sex appeal. But I think sex appeal appeals mainly to the proverbial banker / hedge fund manager / etc and there aren't enough of those about. The turboprop scene is doing well for the existing players but I don't think there is any factor-of-10 upside there to be unearthed.