PA28 ditched off Guernsey
Intuitively, I'd have thought that a ditching in that area is due to a propulsive failure or more immediate in-flight emergency that made staying airborne an even worse option. Also even a single survivor indicates strongly that the ditching was controlled.
A pilot of that age almost certainly has competent map and compass skills, and any pilot of any age nowadays will have a handheld GPS on board on a long trip. Those, in the conditions described, make navigating a serviceable aeroplane to a runway and landing it pretty straightforward.
I'm not a betting man, but if I were, I'd put my money on a problem on the aeroplane and a controlled ditching.
What does not seem at-all unlikely however is that whilst the pilot may have had a good idea what the problem was, his priority was not to getting that information accurately to his wife or anybody else. His priority surely was a safe ditching and saving first his wife's life and then his own. By and large he seems to have succeeded.
G
A pilot of that age almost certainly has competent map and compass skills, and any pilot of any age nowadays will have a handheld GPS on board on a long trip. Those, in the conditions described, make navigating a serviceable aeroplane to a runway and landing it pretty straightforward.
I'm not a betting man, but if I were, I'd put my money on a problem on the aeroplane and a controlled ditching.
What does not seem at-all unlikely however is that whilst the pilot may have had a good idea what the problem was, his priority was not to getting that information accurately to his wife or anybody else. His priority surely was a safe ditching and saving first his wife's life and then his own. By and large he seems to have succeeded.
G
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I don't know...
Imagine all your electrics go out.
Has the alternator failed? Will the engine just stop at some point? We should be at Alderny by now, but it's just open sea. This is the only boat we've seend for 15 minutes.
Decision : do we push on / turn back, knowing that the engine could stop when we're miles from anywhere, no vessels in sight and no radios to tell anyone, or do we aim for that boat right now, and put it down under full control.
Landing a fixed gear on the ocean can't be completely straight forward, so it sounds like he knew how to handle an aeroplane.
Very VERY easy for people to sit in their warm office / lounge and type on a forum that they wouldn't have done the same, but when you're there, and the decision that could save your wife's life, is yours to make, with absolutely no backup whatsoever, sometimes deciding on a bad outcome and going for it, is better than blundering into a worse situation.
Imagine all your electrics go out.
Has the alternator failed? Will the engine just stop at some point? We should be at Alderny by now, but it's just open sea. This is the only boat we've seend for 15 minutes.
Decision : do we push on / turn back, knowing that the engine could stop when we're miles from anywhere, no vessels in sight and no radios to tell anyone, or do we aim for that boat right now, and put it down under full control.
Landing a fixed gear on the ocean can't be completely straight forward, so it sounds like he knew how to handle an aeroplane.
Very VERY easy for people to sit in their warm office / lounge and type on a forum that they wouldn't have done the same, but when you're there, and the decision that could save your wife's life, is yours to make, with absolutely no backup whatsoever, sometimes deciding on a bad outcome and going for it, is better than blundering into a worse situation.
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Originally Posted by SDB73
Imagine all your electrics go out. Has the alternator failed? Will the engine just stop at some point?
Imagine all your electrics go out
Each time I did the same thing - continued on planned route to destination, make a visual landing, then phoned anybody I needed to to explain what had happened.
I most certainly would not ditch because I had no electronic navaids, lights or radio - and I doubt that any other competent pilot would either.
IFR, which this chap doesn't seem to have been, I still have my vacuum DI and stopwatch and standard teaching is in the case of comms failure to continue as planned.
So, I still think that something must have gone wrong with the aeroplane. (Of course, it could be the mags, which are electrical.)
G
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Oh come on now..
.. standby compass and magneto would still be working just fine, and Alderney would not have been that difficult to find in the prevailing weather conditions. As previously suggested, there's more to this than we so far know. Also the dear lady passenger is alleged to have previously said that her husband was unconscious.. now it is claimed that he pushed her out. Cant imagine that a gent of his financial resources would have skimped on fuel just to save a pew pounds. Very sad. TP
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Yes, I suppose that is what I was getting at. Most of us fly with a hand held GPS and a hand held transceiver - but some dont. We also dont know his fuel state - do we? So, just speculating in general, a loss of electrical power, low on fuel, maybe not certain of position etc all might contribute to this decision - and of course there might well be other factors.
The trouble is it is easy to assume a pilot knows where he is. After 40 minutes of DR perhaps with out the foresight to have considered the wind I can well imagine someone being considerably adrift and the panic setting in when things dont appear when expected.
I am not making excuses, offering explanations or criticising the pilot just offering some thoughts.
I have done a few simulated failures in similiar circustmances with pilots and the results have not always been pretty.
Moreover if you reach the point of being convinced you cant make landfall there are some pretty desolate seas around that area with not much shipping and some very unpleasant seas. There will come a point it is more attractive to land near some ships than end up 15 miles off the French penisula with nothing in sight.
The trouble is it is easy to assume a pilot knows where he is. After 40 minutes of DR perhaps with out the foresight to have considered the wind I can well imagine someone being considerably adrift and the panic setting in when things dont appear when expected.
I am not making excuses, offering explanations or criticising the pilot just offering some thoughts.
I have done a few simulated failures in similiar circustmances with pilots and the results have not always been pretty.
Moreover if you reach the point of being convinced you cant make landfall there are some pretty desolate seas around that area with not much shipping and some very unpleasant seas. There will come a point it is more attractive to land near some ships than end up 15 miles off the French penisula with nothing in sight.
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Fuji,
I think you are close to the mark.
Compounded by the possibility I see regularly at my local field. Someone joins the queue for fuel, gets fed up waiting and goes flying with what is in the tank.
D.O.
I think you are close to the mark.
Compounded by the possibility I see regularly at my local field. Someone joins the queue for fuel, gets fed up waiting and goes flying with what is in the tank.
D.O.
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I can quite easily imagine that the pilot had become lost if he was relying on panel avionics, and had a total electrical failure. I can also imagine that he got himself into the state that he had little self hope of finding Alterney.
However all he had to to was turn to North, South or East on his magnetic compass. He was going to hit land pretty soon. West was the only direction that he would have problems finding land! (South East virtually guarantees him land within 15 minutes if he was remotely near his planed track, even if he didn't know where he was)
It's quite likely that his non pilot wife didn't understand what he hold her, or misremembered it. She has been through an incredible ordeal, and the difference between electrical failure and engine failure might have no significance to an 80 year old woman who has been through so much.
How many non-pilots thinks the engine stops if you stall an aeroplane!
Perhaps he told her that they had an engine failure, and she remembers "electrical failure" instead, not appreciating the difference. If you read "engine" where that newspaper says "electrical" it makes a lot more sense.
The other thing to remember is that we are reading it from a newspaper, which we all know constantly reports stuff totally incorrectly.
dp
However all he had to to was turn to North, South or East on his magnetic compass. He was going to hit land pretty soon. West was the only direction that he would have problems finding land! (South East virtually guarantees him land within 15 minutes if he was remotely near his planed track, even if he didn't know where he was)
It's quite likely that his non pilot wife didn't understand what he hold her, or misremembered it. She has been through an incredible ordeal, and the difference between electrical failure and engine failure might have no significance to an 80 year old woman who has been through so much.
How many non-pilots thinks the engine stops if you stall an aeroplane!
Perhaps he told her that they had an engine failure, and she remembers "electrical failure" instead, not appreciating the difference. If you read "engine" where that newspaper says "electrical" it makes a lot more sense.
The other thing to remember is that we are reading it from a newspaper, which we all know constantly reports stuff totally incorrectly.
dp
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Dp - without wishing to split straws at PA28 speeds I think the north coast of France was more liek 45 minutes from the search area. Do I also think for some reason it was not long before darkness fell? If so, with no panel lights, the possibility of a ditching and maybe no night experience there were further influences at work.
SSE would probably bee the better option given the pilot should have had a good idea of how far south he was if less idea how far east or west. The peninsula would have been closer and difficult to miss.
As I said earlier if he didnt feel he could reach land for whatever reason and knew those waters reasonably well he would also know that there isnt much shipping or small boats around at this time of the year once you get outside the shipping lanes. There are also some nasty currents and overfalls even in light winds - you can tell I have been in the waters around there on the odd occasion (as well as over).
What was going through his mind and what problems he had we really dont know and certainly we have learned not too trust the Papers. I am therefore as always very reluctant to speculate but felt the point should be made that any pilot out of sight of land, short on fuel, not sure of their position, with darkness impending and a total power failure is being put to the task before we jump in create the impression that a safe outcome is predictable.
SSE would probably bee the better option given the pilot should have had a good idea of how far south he was if less idea how far east or west. The peninsula would have been closer and difficult to miss.
As I said earlier if he didnt feel he could reach land for whatever reason and knew those waters reasonably well he would also know that there isnt much shipping or small boats around at this time of the year once you get outside the shipping lanes. There are also some nasty currents and overfalls even in light winds - you can tell I have been in the waters around there on the odd occasion (as well as over).
What was going through his mind and what problems he had we really dont know and certainly we have learned not too trust the Papers. I am therefore as always very reluctant to speculate but felt the point should be made that any pilot out of sight of land, short on fuel, not sure of their position, with darkness impending and a total power failure is being put to the task before we jump in create the impression that a safe outcome is predictable.
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Navigational Problems
It seems pretty clear that Ian was well of course to the West, for whatever reason.
One possible factor was that on the afternoon in question there was a major wind shift to the East, combined with a significant increase in wind speed. Archive data at the Channel Light Vessel, not a million miles from the area shows this at:
Windfinder - Real time wind & weather report Channel Lightship
Certainly if he had lost nav equipment, which I know from many flights on this particular aircraft functioned well, the changing wind might have affected his flight path.
Last night a state of the art French hydrographic ship spent 6 hours searching a grid pattern in the area. She seems not to have stopped, and then moved on so presumably the search was not succesful.
One possible factor was that on the afternoon in question there was a major wind shift to the East, combined with a significant increase in wind speed. Archive data at the Channel Light Vessel, not a million miles from the area shows this at:
Windfinder - Real time wind & weather report Channel Lightship
Certainly if he had lost nav equipment, which I know from many flights on this particular aircraft functioned well, the changing wind might have affected his flight path.
Last night a state of the art French hydrographic ship spent 6 hours searching a grid pattern in the area. She seems not to have stopped, and then moved on so presumably the search was not succesful.
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Interesting, in fact from the point of debate a southerly becoming a strong easterly would, if not allowed for, leave the aircraft further west and not as far south as anticipated.
That amount of wind would also make for a lively sea. In shore would not be the place to ditch.
That amount of wind would also make for a lively sea. In shore would not be the place to ditch.
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Just thinking that the Pilot was exactly the same age as my grandfather when he had his first stroke which started off the vascular dementia.
There was no fit or limbs not functioning just over the space of an hour he went from switched on, to totally confused and without a clue where he was or where he was going. A day or two later he regained some function but his short term memory was gone.
There was no fit or limbs not functioning just over the space of an hour he went from switched on, to totally confused and without a clue where he was or where he was going. A day or two later he regained some function but his short term memory was gone.
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It would be interesting to hear at what stage ATC knew there was a problem??
If total electrical failure would he lose everything including the radio??...if so he would be unable to advise ATC of his situation....Also total electrical failure ATC would have lost his transponder response but maybe still been able to see him on primary radar??...unsure at that height if that would have been possible.
How was the incident first reported??....was it by a call from the ship to the coastguard??
So many questions to be answered... but I guess in time, maybe certain questions will be answered but,unless the aircraft is ever recovered and I doubt it ever will be with the ferocious tides in that area I guess we will never know the full truth!!.
If total electrical failure would he lose everything including the radio??...if so he would be unable to advise ATC of his situation....Also total electrical failure ATC would have lost his transponder response but maybe still been able to see him on primary radar??...unsure at that height if that would have been possible.
How was the incident first reported??....was it by a call from the ship to the coastguard??
So many questions to be answered... but I guess in time, maybe certain questions will be answered but,unless the aircraft is ever recovered and I doubt it ever will be with the ferocious tides in that area I guess we will never know the full truth!!.
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Maybe the problem will never be solved - but maybe his wife recalls an 'electrical problem with the engine' - that is rough running and engine failure due a problem with the mags (or independently carb ice)?
In common with other Posts I would be surprised if anyone would consider ditching with a total electrical failure.
I once had a total electrical failure in a C172 at night over the North Yorks moors en route from Barton to Teesside (black and bleak). No thought of an emergency landing - just how to resolve the issue and land at the nearest suitable airfield (which was Teesside as it turned out). Easily resolved with the aid of (my) mandatory handheld radio for night flights - and the engine was still turning and burning.
Easy to speculate from the comfort of ones armchair.
KR
FOK
In common with other Posts I would be surprised if anyone would consider ditching with a total electrical failure.
I once had a total electrical failure in a C172 at night over the North Yorks moors en route from Barton to Teesside (black and bleak). No thought of an emergency landing - just how to resolve the issue and land at the nearest suitable airfield (which was Teesside as it turned out). Easily resolved with the aid of (my) mandatory handheld radio for night flights - and the engine was still turning and burning.
Easy to speculate from the comfort of ones armchair.
KR
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Of course you are right but in this case we have a survivor clearly saying there was an electrical failure and the pilot decided to ditch voluntarily.
It could be the usual crappy press reporting but it doesn't quite sound like that to me in this case.
Until the survivor comes out with a clear report, we won't be any wiser, but until then it just seems almost totally bizzare.
I say "almost" because I have met PPL holders who thought that a VP prop is implemented with a variable ratio gearbox. Similarly there are loads of DA40TDi / DA42TDi pilots flying who know zilch about the systems involved, etc. It is not totally unbelievable that this pilot decided to ditch in the belief that his engine would stop at any moment.
The converse is that he had an engine problem causing the forced landing, but in that case why not make a radio call? The probability of an engine problem and a concurrent radio failure is absolutely miniscule.
It could be the usual crappy press reporting but it doesn't quite sound like that to me in this case.
Until the survivor comes out with a clear report, we won't be any wiser, but until then it just seems almost totally bizzare.
I say "almost" because I have met PPL holders who thought that a VP prop is implemented with a variable ratio gearbox. Similarly there are loads of DA40TDi / DA42TDi pilots flying who know zilch about the systems involved, etc. It is not totally unbelievable that this pilot decided to ditch in the belief that his engine would stop at any moment.
The converse is that he had an engine problem causing the forced landing, but in that case why not make a radio call? The probability of an engine problem and a concurrent radio failure is absolutely miniscule.
I'm sure that that report has been made, clearly, to the AAIB ops inspector who I'm sure has been out there - and probably back again - by now. I should think it will be in the bulletin (or, less likely, report) when that's published in due course.
G
G
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I flew single engine to Jersey a number of times but I never did it without wearing a full drysuit - and I practised putting it on a few times. This is not being wise after the event but maybe a wake up call for those who go across with just a standard life-vest. I know that they are expensive and you look like Yogi Bear when you wear them but......
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I flew single engine to Jersey a number of times but I never did it without wearing a full drysuit - and I practised putting it on a few times. This is not being wise after the event but maybe a wake up call for those who go across with just a standard life-vest. I know that they are expensive and you look like Yogi Bear when you wear them but......
Certainly with no drysuit, no raft, no jacket you have no backup plan and just jackets is a pretty marginal plan in many cases.
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I also think that bobbing up and down in a drysuit, with just your head above the swell, you are going to be lucky to get spotted, unless you have an ELT strapped to your head
Also, if you require your female passengers to wear that stuff, you will end up spending a whole lot more time on the internet dating sites
Rubber is not anywhere near as big as it was in the 1970s.
Also, if you require your female passengers to wear that stuff, you will end up spending a whole lot more time on the internet dating sites
Rubber is not anywhere near as big as it was in the 1970s.