IMCR numbers going down

[Fuji Abound]

In respect of the first discussion I think we may be at cross purposes. Touring is more than possible without an IMCR or IR. However proper touring requires a different mind set and a reasonable understanding of the weather. If you do enough VFR touring you will get use to flying low on occasions and you will certainly get use to working around weather or adjusting your plans to allow for the weather. You will also get use to delaying your departure on occasions. It is surprising that in the Summer there are really very few days you cant fly BUT you sometimes have to wait to find a suitable gap in the weather. On the other hand with an instrument rating you are far more likely to complete a given sector of your tour without the same regard to the weather or diverting in terms of time or route from your plans.

In respect of the decline in pilots pursuing an IMCR without doubt the rating has been poorly “sold” by the schools, authorities and representative bodies in recent times. I think this is a great shame as I am convinced a pilot is far better off with an IMCR than without.

I have no idea how much illegal IMC flying takes place in aircraft that are not for whatever reason certified for flight in instrument conditions. I do however know that many VLA aircraft are more than adequately equipped for some types of instrument operations and I would be surprised if some of their members do not on occasions fly on panel to transition through cloud. I am however convinced that flight in instrument conditions (to some degree) by pilots without a current instrument qualification is not that rare, particularly by those with a lapsed rating of one description or another.

It would also be interesting to see how the number of instructors qualified to teach the IMC rating has changed over the same time span? My perception is that there are far fewer around than there use to be.

[XX621]

Originally Posted by IO540

The high income men driving nice cars have moved on to more interesting activities (more excitement, more interesting females around, or both) back in the 1970s, as far as I can tell.

What activities with "interesting females around" exactly ?? (and where?)
(sorry to digress a very interesting thread but couldn't resist)

Can someone provide a link to a publication which defines exactly what constitutes an aircraft which is "certified for instrument conditions"?? I have asked a few people and no-one can give me a definitive response.

[S-Works]

Can someone provide a link to a publication which defines exactly what constitutes an aircraft which is "certified for instrument conditions"?? I have asked a few people and no-one can give me a definitive response.

Its part of the flight manual and subject to the minimum equipment list as defined in the ANO for the basic stuff. It is actually surprisingly little in what is actually 'required' kit!

[IO540]

If a significant number of permit aircraft were being flown in IMC with uncertified systems then the accident rate for LAA aircraft would be higher than for similar accidents in C of A aircraft

Not if

a) you use a decent GPS (which most VLA pilots do), and

b) you never try flying close to the ground (e.g. an approach)

Enroute, and icing aside (not a problem anyway as much of the VLA crowd flies little in winter, or high enough) IMC is quite safe.

I have a JAA IR and a huge pile more hours than IO does and I tour extensively

Well, Mr Bose Big Man, I have nearly 1000hrs which is way more than the average PPL ever reaches before chucking it in for good, and I was doing 150/year when I had just a PPL+IMCR, so if you have 10,000 hours all well and good but not really relevant to the argument because one ends up debating the very last 0.1% or so.

It is also no use an IR pilot saying that purely-VFR touring is possible because he is adopting a very different attitude from the start. I might do a VFR flight to say Calais but if I hear the wx there is OVC008 (unforecast, presumably, otherwise I would have gone IFR) I just request an IFR clearance and an ILS without even pausing for a breath. A VFR pilot cannot do this, and last time I did it (Caen) there was quite a panic to be heard on the French frequency from all the other Brits going VFR to LTQ etc because the bad wx was quite widespread along the coast.

An IMCR pilot cannot do this outside the UK but he can do it in the UK, and he can also fly VMC on top VFR worldwide (which is really vital for European VFR touring) and very importantly he can leave behind all that ridiculous compass+stopwatch crap and use his radio nav capability which completely transforms the certainty in 'going places'.

It would also be interesting to see how the number of instructors qualified to teach the IMC rating has changed over the same time span? My perception is that there are far fewer around than there use to be.

That is a curious one. I thought that anybody with an fATPL can teach the IMCR - such an FI will have done the CPL/IR after all.

What activities with "interesting females around" exactly ?? (and where?)

Helicopters is the only 'flying' activity I can think of, but it has to be a turbine one (sorry). And you have to fly her (or them ) to posh country hotels in France. It's an awfully expensive way to get la*d.

Outside flying, I am reliably informed that swimming pool attendants do very well.

Motor racing, powerboat racing, anything to do with sailing (but not too serious sailing and only when it's warm).

[poss]

Sorry, no. However, I would like to point out that this decline started way before the EASA debate was even hinted at.

I work at a large school in North-West London and at the moment we've only one student actively studying for the IMCr. At the moment, I'm not qualified to teach it and I'm wondering if it's going to be worth my while getting the additional qualification if I'm not going to be able to put it in to practice. Thus the downward spiral is self-sustaining...

TheOddOne

Mate I think it would be a good idea for you to get it anyway. The IMC will be around for at least another 4 years and even if you aren't able to use it, the things that the course teaches you are very valuable and could one day save your life. My flying club will still run the course even if it is scrapped purely for the safety aspect of what you learn.

[XX621]

Bose-x: Thanks.
Sorry to digress everyone....

[S-Works]

Well IO, very unusual for you to stoop to personal attacks just because you don't like what has been said. I do believe that in the private flying hours pissing contest you are onto a loser by a large margin.

My point was around VFR touring, Calais in an 800OVC is hardly VFR touring is it?

My point is (again) that it is perfectly possible for the pilots of these hot ships to tour VFR. This is demonstrated all the time. Just because you have an IR and therefore it seems view yourself better than the VFR guys don't go round making stuff up to suit your arguments. Implying the permit flyers are breaking the law and flying in IMC to support your argument is just stupid.

Personally I am neutral either way, but the question was asked why the IMCR issues have fallen year on year. I gave a reasonable interpretation that is supported by comment from the VFR only flyers as to why. Changing styles and a move towards permit flying has had an impact on issues as these guys don't see the need for a rating they can't legally use.

You have just made up a view that they are doing it illegally to support your argument which kind of does them a bit of a disservice?

Perhaps you want to lean over the side of the cot and pick you toys back up.....

[IO540]

It has been stated that a transition to lower operating cost (and VFR-only) aircraft is the main reason for the decline in the IMCR issues.

Taking the volume of the decline, from a baseline of say 750 in 2002 to 250 today, we get a total of 1500 who would have done it had the numbers remained constant. OK, this is very rough, but what are these 1500 people doing?

Are they all flying permit types? That's quite a lot of planes.

Bose - nobody can beat you in p*ssing contests, and I would never try. But you can never pretend to be a VFR pilot (and neither can I). On every VFR flight you embark on, you have the option of picking up an IFR clearance, and that completely transforms the mission capability.

[Rod1]

IO540,

I have about the same number of hours as you. I fly a VFR only aircraft and do long distance flying for fun. My aircraft does not even have a DI (compass+wistwatch rule). I do it, you say it cannot be done. I think we will infer from that that you cannot do it so you assume the rest of us are incapable…

I do hope you find all your toys

Rod1

Total number of permit aircraft (all types) has gone up by about 3500 ish since 2000.

[IO540]

Rod1, sure you can do it. Nevr said nobody can do it. I also know of a microlight pilot who flew all the way to Kathmandu, map & compass too. That's two people... hey, another 50 posts and we could even do a poll

But the bulk ~ 99%? Not likely. Most PPLs don't do any significant European touring.

[S-Works]

But the bulk ~ 99%? Not likely. Most PPLs don't do any significant European touring.

I am sorry IO, a couple of years ago I would have agreed with you but it just not true. Do not underestimate the rise in capability and will of the new permit generation flyers. I have a whole new respect for them.

You are right I rarely fly VFR, it's to much like hard work and I am all to often on a schedule but that does not mean I am going to agree that long trips can't and are not being done VFR. These modern aircraft have great range, great economy, glass cockpits with state of the art GPS and they are being used.

As I mentioned before, there are 10 of us going to Sweden this month, I am th only IR holder and will be taking the easy way and going in 2 legs, the rest of the guys will be VFR. Te flyer trip to Berlin is a huge trip in May, I bet there are only a few of us IR holders.

Our Morocco trip in June/July I will be the only IFR pilot.

Times are changing.

However this does nothing to alleviate my view that we are being forced down a two tier system that will bit us in the bum later.

[SkyCamMK]

That is a curious one. I thought that anybody with an fATPL can teach the IMCR - such an FI will have done the CPL/IR after all.

Surely you would like to be trained by someone that has bee trained to train for IF. It may only be a 5 hour minimum course and test withan FIE but it can make a lot of differnce in some cases. How many cpl/ir 200 hr fatpl holders can and regularly do fly light aircraft in IMC or under IFR - not so many I think.

When I did mine I had 200 hours or so and now over 2500. What grieves me is that it is advanced training for safety purposes with respect to UK weather as well as the other advantages re touring and flight on top etc. It is criminal to remove it just because further south things are different. Our small island nation needs to stand up and continue regardless it's not their sky!

[Roffa]

bose wrote;

I do believe that in the private flying hours pissing contest you are onto a loser by a large margin.

You never miss an opportunity do you

But anyway, I was more interested in...

The suitability of aircraft for IMC flying in the club scene is next to none. There is a prosecution culture for those who make a mistake and in a badly equipped aircraft you have more chance of a mistake in IMC. In the past pilots would be happy to blag with a minimum IMC fit and a portable GPS, now they are more wary of explaining themselves if it goes wrong.

The last two years worth of CAA prosecutions can be found here. I struggle to reconcile the facts against your prosecution culture assertion either generally or in relation to IMC rating/flight.

[IO540]

Surely you would like to be trained by someone that has bee trained to train for IF

I agree, of course, but do you think that the reduction in the IMCR business is caused by potential customers thinking (or knowing?) that the average IMCR instructor is no good? (a straight question, BTW)

IMHO, the potential customer won't have a clue. Same for the PPL - at that stage in your flying career you don't spot a bad one until many hours too late.

[S-Works]

Quote:
I do believe that in the private flying hours pissing contest you are onto a loser by a large margin.
You never miss an opportunity do you

But anyway, I was more interested in...

Quote:
The suitability of aircraft for IMC flying in the club scene is next to none. There is a prosecution culture for those who make a mistake and in a badly equipped aircraft you have more chance of a mistake in IMC. In the past pilots would be happy to blag with a minimum IMC fit and a portable GPS, now they are more wary of explaining themselves if it goes wrong.
The last two years worth of CAA prosecutions can be found here. I struggle to reconcile the facts against your prosecution culture assertion either generally or in relation to IMC rating/flight.

Actually, I meant to say 'perceived' culture of prosecution but I was to busy pissing. My apologies.

[IO540]

On reflection I don't see how an increase in the permit scene can account for a 3x drop in IMCR issues, taking place linearly since 2002.

Those doing the IMCR want to be able to fly in IMC. Everybody getting into the permit scene knows they cannot ever do so legally. They can do it illegally enroute and not get caught but it would take a helluva bold player to ask for an instrument approach somewhere, landing a type which every plane spotter will know cannot fly IFR...

There has to be another reason.

Can't be EASA - timing is wrong.
Can't be any regulatory issue - there have been no changes.
Unlikely to be the schools - they make £2-4k on each IMCR.
The weather is same as ever.

It's also unlikely to be any 'attitude' within the CAA. Most would be IMCR pilots barely come into contact with anything published directly by the CAA.

Can't be the JAA IR - the numbers of private JAA IRs have been single digits per year for years.

The FAA IR might account for a bit of it - we are looking at a drop of ~100 each year, but I would think that is rather more than the # of UK pilots doing the FAA IR.

[S-Works]

Those doing the IMCR want to be able to fly in IMC.

Bizarrely I think that is where you are wrong. A good number of those doing an IMCR did not want to fly in IMC, they just did the PPL and probably the night rating and got bored of the £200 bacon butty so looked for something else to do to continue to fly and the IMC was the next opportunity. Over the last few years pilots have migrated towards the permit scene and the microlights etc and found other things to spend the cash on.

Unlike you I spend a lot of time around flying clubs in touch with the training scene for AOPA and I get more exposure to the mindset of the low hour club flyers.

What ever you and I may think IMC flight is not the bee all and end all of aviation. Have you ever considered that there are many people who see no utility value in aviation and just like to go flying?

[PompeyPaul]

View from a newbie PPL

I'm nudging 70hours now!!! Yes, I'm Han solo himself, and have now got a whole wealth of experience to draw on. I've even flown to an airport now, that I hadn't before, all on my own.

I am attracted to the IMC because I want to fly in IMC. My weekend time is precious, trying to fit around "life control" and DIY chores that life control periodically hands out.

To many hours at a specific time on a specific day are cancelled due to wx. As I see it, if I had the IMC it would mean I would get to fly more and spend less time, with a face as long as your arm and a drill in my hand whilst I stare whispfully at the CAVOK outside.

I also want to start touring and it feels the chances of getting CAVOK over any significant distance is very limited thus I need the IMC. I fully want to fly in IMC on it.

It's true, the fact it may only last 3.5 years does slightly put me off....

[IO540]

Over the last few years pilots have migrated towards the permit scene and the microlights etc and found other things to spend the cash on.

Why in the last few years in particular - that's the real question. Pre-2002, the IMCR issue rate was relatively stable.

As I keep saying, we are looking at a 3x drop. That's a helluva change, somewhere. Microlights etc have been around for donkeys years.

Unlike you I spend a lot of time around flying clubs

bait ignored.

It's true, the fact it may only last 3.5 years does slightly put me off....

It shouldn't put you off. It is a virtual certainty that any "EASA IR" will allow the IMCR training as a credit, as part of any last-hour political deal. And it could get better than that, e.g. a halfway module in the IR into which you get grandfathered, which will have some IMC privileges. But, anyway, the training and the capability to radio navigate are priceless - for the reasons you already know.

If you file and fly under VFR rules but plan and navigate the flight as IFR, your mission capability is dramatically improved, and this is just one bit of what the IMCR gives you.

p.s. Paul I've sent you an email but your email address with pprune is duff. I have sent in a PM.

[radicalrabit]

Its Just My Opinion But

I think that an IMCr would give me as a new pilot (when I get there) the ability to navigate by instruments rather than map and compass, give me the ability to fly more often, given the crap weather we often get local to the Pennines that seems to improve as soon as you get 30 miles away , and to go somewhere with a purpose knowing that if the weather does become marginal I will know how to best get to where I want to go with the option of getting through the clag and over the weather into clearer sky.
Yes I also want to do my CPL ME AND IR just because it seems the more you know and the more you use what you know the more able you ought to be to cope when it all goes wrong.

Not a get out of jail free card but, as has been said, as a way to get from a to b with confidence.
The better I am as a Pilot the safer my kids will be flying with me!