Light plane missing in blizzard in Scotland (Merged)

[stocker]

I agree with Three Yellows, its a terrible shame but should not put anyone off.
I too was planning a flight this weekend but out to the Western Isles, it seemed obvious with the weather info available that this was not a good idea, so while this poor chap hit the mountain I was sitting at home in front of the fire.
I am not for one moment suggesting any superior judgement, only that we must learn from others and having learned to fly in Scotland I have learned a lot about mountain weather, some of it at the high cost of other pilots.

[Mikehotel152]

Like Three Yellows and Stocker, I was planning a flight up to Scotland from East Anglia on Sunday and cancelled because of the band of sleet and snow showers travelling down the country from the North.

I'm very sad whenever I hear of loss of life in aviation, whether it's a business jet in Kent or a light single in Scotland. RIP.

[moggiee]

I've just heard that it was an owner/pilot, believed to be taking the aeroplane from Halfpenny Green to the USA (via Wick). Most people based here will know the chap in question.

RIP G.K.

[IO540]

IO540, another thing to ponder might be whether a machine operating on a flag of convenience, far from the reach of the regulatory authority which ensures its airworthiness, ensures the standards kept by its maintainers to keep it airborne, ensures its pilot is proficient, etc, confers any benefits in terms of safety, over a machine honestly operated in its state of registery.

What a load of utter b011ocks, Hamster. You are making a very cheap point.

"flag of convenience" - what rubbish, you have no idea why it was N-reg
"far from the reach of the regulatory authority" - rubbish
"ensures the standards kept by its maintainers to keep it airborne" - rubbish
"ensures its pilot is proficient" - rubbish
"confers any benefits in terms of safety" - utter rubbish

I have news for you, Hamster, but you will need to sit down before you read this as it might come as a shock.

The UK CAA does not do any of the above either. No ramp checks, no maintenance checks. At the average UK airfield, the worst maintained wreckage is G-reg. N-reg planes tend to be owner-pilot stuff and they get looked after better, on average, and the pilots are much more current too.

There is ZERO data supporting the assertion that FAA registered aircraft is less safe than some European reg. A lot of people have looked for such data (because it would be sooo useful to types like you) but nobody has found any.

As for this particular incident, I wouldn't judge the pilot. The archived weather data suggests the bad weather was quite patchy. He could have climbed high and stayed high. As to why he didn't do that, that's a good question. Maybe he left it too late and iced up? Did he have an IR? If N-reg, it's quite likely he did.

[Three Yellows]

Moggiee,

I notice that you edited your post from earlier is this because (a) the pilot in question was not who you refered to or (b) you just thought better of it?

Just curious.

[BoeingMEL]

so Moggiee...

thanks for your post moggiee.... so, was it Mr.B.G. do you know?

Cheers, not morbid but I know quite a few guys at 1/2p green. Cheers bm

[S-Works]

why would someone be taking a G Reg aircraft to the USA at this time of year?

[DX Wombat]

Must not let news stories like this put me off my PPL

No, Liam, you mustn't let it put you off. I know the person involved and. although I am saddened by this accident, I will continue to fly. Keep going, learn from all you read as well as your FI, and enjoy your flying.

[moggiee]

Originally Posted by Three Yellows

Moggiee,

I notice that you edited your post from earlier is this because (a) the pilot in question was not who you refered to or (b) you just thought better of it?

Just curious.

Just that on second thoughts, although the chap in question had some "history", I decided it was better to remove any reference to that.

Originally Posted by boeingMEL

thanks for your post moggiee.... so, was it Mr.B.G. do you know?

Initials GK

Originally Posted by bose-x

why would someone be taking a G Reg aircraft to the USA at this time of year?

Good question. Perhaps the question of why fly at all on saturday is more relevant.

[vanHorck]

link to text and video on the crash

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/...ds/7332901.stm

[Bahn-Jeaux]

Originally Posted by bose-x
why would someone be taking a G Reg aircraft to the USA at this time of year?

Seems he was starting a new life in the USA according to the video newscast.

[moggiee]

Any idea on cloud levels (above MSL if such data is available)? Thanks

[BoeingMEL]

So sorry PKPF ... can't agree

Sorry PKPF, I just can't reconcile your view that this gentleman was "unlucky." I don't know if or when he studied TAFs, Metars etc.. but what IS clear is that he set-off on a flight over a notorious mountainous area into and through the most appalling weather - and in an aircraft singularly ill-equipped for such a flight. My sincere respect for the deceased (I didn't know him) prevents me from saying more... but, luck? Luck? Oh, for heaven's sake.. Rgds bm

[IO540]

People are talking about conditions on the ground, but one doesn't (normally) fly on the ground.

This plane had a ceiling of 15k-17k feet (dep. on exact type of Lance) and that was plenty enough to fly VMC on top on the day, avoiding any vertical development while remaining VMC.

Presumably ATC will know if he actually did that but somehow got into IMC and iced up. But to fly low down in those conditions doesn't make any sense - unless he didn't have an IR. And flying to the USA without an IR is problematic because much of the flight across the water has to be at a low level too.

[bookworm]

METAR EGPD 050850Z 34019KT 9999 -SHRA FEW015CB SCT040 04/02 Q1017 TEMPO 3000 SHRASN SCT015CB=
METAR EGPD 050920Z 35016KT 9999 FEW009 SCT013 03/01 Q1018 TEMPO 3000 SHRASN SCT015CB=
METAR EGPD 050950Z 36013KT 9999 -RA FEW009 SCT013 05/02 Q1017 TEMPO 3000 SHRASN SCT015CB=
METAR EGPD 051020Z 33017KT 9999 -RA FEW009 SCT015 05/02 Q1017 TEMPO 3000 SHRASN SCT015CB=
METAR EGPD 051050Z 33015KT 300V030 6000 SHRA FEW007 SCT015CB 04/02 Q1018 TEMPO 3000 SHRAGS=
METAR EGPD 051120Z 36019KT 9999 VCSH FEW008 SCT012CB 03/02 Q1018 TEMPO 3000 SHRAGS=
METAR EGPD 051150Z 36016G28KT 8000 -SHRASN FEW008 SCT012CB 02/M00 Q1019 TEMPO 3000 SHRAGS=
METAR EGPD 051220Z 35014KT 9999 -DZ FEW008 SCT012CB 03/01 Q1018 TEMPO 3000 SHRAGS=
METAR EGPD 051250Z 35021G31KT 9999 VCSH FEW012 SCT017 03/01 Q1018 TEMPO 3000 SHRAGS=

METAR EGPE 050850Z 34010KT 9999 FEW012 SCT044 05/02 Q1021=
METAR EGPE 050920Z 34012KT 9999 FEW012 SCT042 05/01 Q1021=
METAR EGPE 050950Z 34009KT 9999 FEW014CB SCT036 06/02 Q1021=
METAR EGPE 051020Z 36014G30KT 9999 4000E VCSH FEW012CB SCT028 02/00 Q1021=
METAR EGPE 051050Z 35010KT 9999 VCSH FEW012CB SCT036 04/03 Q1021=
METAR EGPE 051120Z 35020KT 6000 SHSNRA SCT009CB BKN028 02/01 Q1022=
METAR EGPE 051150Z 01013KT 9999 VCSH FEW009 SCT015CB 02/01 Q1022=
METAR EGPE 051220Z 36013KT 9999 VCSH FEW009 SCT015CB BKN028 05/03 Q1021=
METAR EGPE 051250Z 36014KT 9999 VCSH FEW009 SCT015CB SCT022 04/01 Q1021=
METAR EGPE 051320Z 35019KT 9999 VCSH FEW009 SCT015CB SCT028 04/M01 Q1022=

METAR EGPC 050820Z 35011KT 9999 VCSH FEW007 SCT010CB 03/01 Q1019=
METAR EGPC 050850Z 35023KT 9999 VCSH FEW007 SCT010CB 03/01 Q1019=
METAR EGPC 050920Z 35016KT 9999 VCSH FEW007 BKN010CB 03/01 Q1019=
METAR EGPC 050950Z AUTO 35013KT 9999 -SHRA SCT007/// 03/01 Q1020=
METAR EGPC 051020Z 35020KT 9999 VCSH FEW008 FEW014CB 03/01 Q1020=
METAR EGPC 051050Z 34021KT 9999 FEW008 FEW014CB 02/M01 Q1019=
METAR EGPC 051120Z 34021KT 9999 FEW008 FEW012CB 04/M01 Q1020=
METAR EGPC 051150Z 33020KT 9999 FEW008 FEW012CB 04/M02 Q1020=
METAR EGPC 051220Z 35022KT 9999 FEW008 FEW012CB 03/M01 Q1019=
METAR EGPC 051250Z 34020KT 9999 FEW008 FEW012CB 04/M03 Q1019=
METAR EGPC 051320Z 35019G29KT 9999 -SHSNRA FEW008 SCT012CB 03/M02 Q1019=


It looks unpleasant, but without further details of the flight, I don't think you can say that he flew "through the most appalling weather". Over flatland, most of this sort of stuff tops out quite low. At 10,000 ft with a forecast temperature of -19 degC, I'd expect it all to be glaciated, and you'd be flying above the tops with the odd shower to dodge -- though I don't doubt the mountains do nasty things with the convection.

F215 said

SCT/BKN (LOC OVC FRONTS/TROUGH) CU SC AC 015-030/070-XXX
OCNL (LOC EMBD FRONTS/TROUGH) CB 010-020/XXX
with FRQ 3000M SHRASN SHGS and ISOL <much worse>

[Rod1]

Weather data posted on Flyer indicates the tops were 20,000 in places.

The Lance may have a ceiling of 17,000, but did it have oxygen?

With a single engine, operating right at its limit, your chances of puling off a forced landing almost zero…

Rod1

[IO540]

Rod1, the "single engine" is irrelevant to whether one can fly the mission.

Carrying (or not) a spare engine affects only one' attitude to risk, not whether the plane will make it safely.


This flight was IMHO doable in a 16k ceiling plane. But much hangs on the detail.

Did he have an IR? If not, he would not have been let into the controlled airspace and that would have been the end of it.

Did he carry oxygen? I ask this question whenever somebody (flying a perfectly capable machine) piles it into terrain, and usually the answer is NO. Without oxygen, you have cut off your far and away best weather escape route (but, in the UK, you need the IR also).

Look up N2195B. 10/2/07, France. 25k ceiling, IR, de-icing & turbo (Seneca), yet he still managed to come down at ~ 7000ft. 3 died. The tops might have been very high, but he had no oxygen so cut off all his options even before takeoff.

In this latest case, the plane was < 2000kg so the usual reason for not flying IFR doesn't apply either

[IO540]

Sorry, I did not know it could fly at that height.

Yes, most half decent tourers can do 16k-20k, and most turbo ones can do 25k. My TB20 can do 20k. I've crossed the Alps at FL190 - just above the cloud tops and at about -26C. One gets through a lot of oxygen, which is another story (getting a refill), but it does the job, and you are sitting in nice sunshine.

That is what "IFR" is about. Most pilots think an IR allows you to fly in cloud but actually that is the last thing a "smart" IR pilot does. An IR gives you an implicit clearance along the entire filed route, with controlled airspace and national frontiers (in Europe) becoming irrelevant, and what you do is limited essentially only by aircraft performance (and whether you carry oxygen).

You climb up to VMC, sit there enroute, then descend. One does everything possible to avoid battling one's way through cloud.

I've just looked up the pilot named on the news and he did have an FAA piggyback PPL but no FAA IR. If he had an IR it would have been a Euro one and there is no database for that.

[vanHorck]

Talk of which, I carry a Mountain High pulse oxygen system in my Seneca. It uses canulla's and automatically gives off a puff of 02 everytime you breathe in, fully automatic. A brilliant light system that uses little o2 and so lasts a looooong time

With the canulla s it s cleared to 18.000 (up to 25.000 with mask) but i dont fly much higher than FL 160 simply because the climb performace of the Seneca is not there (sooooo slooooow at that height) but also because it gets pretty hostile there, even with O2 and de ice boots

So in a Saratoga, without deice and possibly no o2 he would have tried to climb to FL120 or so. At that altitude it may have been impossible to avoid tops. The icing in the climb may already have had it s effect

[IO540]

it gets pretty hostile there, even with O2 and de ice boots

where?