MET OFFICE - Pessimistic Forcasts
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Interesting one this morning. Was checking the forecast for tomorrow at Edinburgh on the Met Office website. They have the forecast wind as being 5mph, gusting to 30mph! Seems a bit excessive! Have never seen/heard of conditions like that before???
Also noticed the bright red gust warning thing on the map which someone mentioned early on in this thread... I fully trust (and appreciate) the Met Office but I can't help that this is being a little silly. A gentle 5mph breeze gusting to 30? Come on.
Also noticed the bright red gust warning thing on the map which someone mentioned early on in this thread... I fully trust (and appreciate) the Met Office but I can't help that this is being a little silly. A gentle 5mph breeze gusting to 30? Come on.
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I've noticed this trend of late too. Not to sure of the reason. Perhaps too much of a reliance on computer models. I flew the other day in the face a TAF that promised lowish cloud and widespread showers. The radar on the day showed nothing. I took off into scattered fluffy cumulus with bases at 3000 feet. A beautiful day. This was not an isolated trend either. I have been keeping an eye on the weather for months. The TAFs are too pessimistic. The TV weather people often plain wrong.
I remember turing up at a skydiving field on a nice day only to find a single solitary soul, the pilot just tying up his Cessna. He told me they cancelled the previous day in the face of a poor forecast.
I honestly think there is a problem here.
I remember turing up at a skydiving field on a nice day only to find a single solitary soul, the pilot just tying up his Cessna. He told me they cancelled the previous day in the face of a poor forecast.
I honestly think there is a problem here.
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There is too much info. A few years ago, we'd see an iffy forecast but turn up anyway "just in case the met man got it wrong".
Now, because we see the same forecast in a dozen different places (but all using the same met office data) we assume "it must be right because they ALL say so". But they all use the same info!
Now, because we see the same forecast in a dozen different places (but all using the same met office data) we assume "it must be right because they ALL say so". But they all use the same info!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bose-x
I am now representing GA on the Met Office User Forum and would be happy to take any genuine concerns to the table.
Elected by popular mandate, I trust.
Using an anonymous identity? Is this a joke?
Or is this a "self-appointed" role, a la Mugabe? Is your real name Robert?
Originally Posted by bose-x
I am now representing GA on the Met Office User Forum and would be happy to take any genuine concerns to the table.
Elected by popular mandate, I trust.
Using an anonymous identity? Is this a joke?
Or is this a "self-appointed" role, a la Mugabe? Is your real name Robert?
On behalf of AOPA who have worked hard to get a GA voice on the Forum which was previously only attended by the airlines and therefore not meeting it's obligations to provide services to ALL areas of aviation.
However if you think that you can do the job better please feel free to volunteer.
I have asked for PM's from anyone who wishes to contribute so am therefore opening the opportunity to wider than just the AOPA membership.
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Bose, check your PMs 
Seriously folks, listen to what some of you are saying. Blaming it on New Labour? Comparisons between Bose-X and Robert Mugabe? Get a grip! We are all adults and we can all do much better than this.
Smithy
Seriously folks, listen to what some of you are saying. Blaming it on New Labour? Comparisons between Bose-X and Robert Mugabe? Get a grip! We are all adults and we can all do much better than this.
Smithy
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Hi Folks,
Just a few thoughts from someone who has daily dealings with the other side of the forecast issue. Admittedly I'm in research and I'm in the US (originally from the UK, but got a position in this silly place), but I've worked with UKMO people in research mode including the chief forecaster.
Firstly, it is my personal opinion that there aren't many human forecasters left in any European met agency as the number of positions available were small when I graduated (7 years ago) and getting smaller. There seems to be a shift towards automation and numerical models, which is not necessarily a bad thing in the long run, but you lose the local knowledge that a human forecaster could use to give "added value" to a numerical forecast. Perhaps one day we'll catch up. In the US there are human forecasters at each national weather service office, but that has its problems as sometimes opinion may overtake fact and there are all sorts of political problems where there are areas of overlapping responsibility.
Secondly the reason for the pessimistic forecast might be quite simple, it could simply be that the newest iteration of the UKMO numerical model produces conditions that aren't quite right (e.g. too strong gusts around thunderstorms) which is getting into the forecasts. If this is the case, don't worry the boffins at the UKMO will fix it soon.
My personal baseless crackpot conspiracy theory is that the UKMO is adding some arse covering in case of a bust forecast. My reason for this thinking is the wise move by our glorious leaders to run the UKMO as a private company rather than a government agency will make the UKMO a juicy target for the "no win no fee" leech lawyers. They've already tried that in the US, but the weather service is still part of the government and can't be prosecuted like a private firm for some mumbo jumbo legal reason.
Cheers,
Gareth.
Just a few thoughts from someone who has daily dealings with the other side of the forecast issue. Admittedly I'm in research and I'm in the US (originally from the UK, but got a position in this silly place), but I've worked with UKMO people in research mode including the chief forecaster.
Firstly, it is my personal opinion that there aren't many human forecasters left in any European met agency as the number of positions available were small when I graduated (7 years ago) and getting smaller. There seems to be a shift towards automation and numerical models, which is not necessarily a bad thing in the long run, but you lose the local knowledge that a human forecaster could use to give "added value" to a numerical forecast. Perhaps one day we'll catch up. In the US there are human forecasters at each national weather service office, but that has its problems as sometimes opinion may overtake fact and there are all sorts of political problems where there are areas of overlapping responsibility.
Secondly the reason for the pessimistic forecast might be quite simple, it could simply be that the newest iteration of the UKMO numerical model produces conditions that aren't quite right (e.g. too strong gusts around thunderstorms) which is getting into the forecasts. If this is the case, don't worry the boffins at the UKMO will fix it soon.
My personal baseless crackpot conspiracy theory is that the UKMO is adding some arse covering in case of a bust forecast. My reason for this thinking is the wise move by our glorious leaders to run the UKMO as a private company rather than a government agency will make the UKMO a juicy target for the "no win no fee" leech lawyers. They've already tried that in the US, but the weather service is still part of the government and can't be prosecuted like a private firm for some mumbo jumbo legal reason.
Cheers,
Gareth.
Last edited by gfunc; 14th Apr 2008 at 14:05. Reason: typo
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Capt Smithy,
The red tags on the general forecast was actually what i was originally referring to... These are very misleading.. IMHO It's quite sensible to look at the "global" picture before logging into the Aviation section of the Met Office site... If you believe the general forecast you won't even get to the more detailed aviation focused bit..
GAFlyer,
Comparing Bose X to Mugabe is slightly(!) extreme... So far, his postings generally on pprune seem fairly reasoned to me..
Bookworm,
OK - yesterday, I was flying all day, wind didn't exceed 8 knots on any of the 4 airfields I visited, secondly cloud base was more like 3 to 3.5k and yes there were some showers but it appeared to me that the lapse rate was nothing like forecasted, hence why is was a much better day than forecasted..
I noticed another thread on here about how little flying had been acheivable due to the wx, I've managed over 35 so far since January, all at weekends (bar a couple of hours) and most of the time, the forecast has been MUCH worse than experienced.. No wonder peole are getting rather hacked off..
My own personal interpretation of the wx has been much more accurate than what the Met Office has forecast, hence why I've managed to get a lot of flying in so far. As you say in your own words, it's all about interpretation........
The red tags on the general forecast was actually what i was originally referring to... These are very misleading.. IMHO It's quite sensible to look at the "global" picture before logging into the Aviation section of the Met Office site... If you believe the general forecast you won't even get to the more detailed aviation focused bit..
GAFlyer,
Comparing Bose X to Mugabe is slightly(!) extreme... So far, his postings generally on pprune seem fairly reasoned to me..
Bookworm,
OK - yesterday, I was flying all day, wind didn't exceed 8 knots on any of the 4 airfields I visited, secondly cloud base was more like 3 to 3.5k and yes there were some showers but it appeared to me that the lapse rate was nothing like forecasted, hence why is was a much better day than forecasted..
I noticed another thread on here about how little flying had been acheivable due to the wx, I've managed over 35 so far since January, all at weekends (bar a couple of hours) and most of the time, the forecast has been MUCH worse than experienced.. No wonder peole are getting rather hacked off..
My own personal interpretation of the wx has been much more accurate than what the Met Office has forecast, hence why I've managed to get a lot of flying in so far. As you say in your own words, it's all about interpretation........
OK - yesterday, I was flying all day, wind didn't exceed 8 knots on any of the 4 airfields I visited,
secondly cloud base was more like 3 to 3.5k and yes there were some showers...
If you simply look at the characters "TSRA" and "G25KT" without bothering to interpret the forecast, no wonder you end up not flying.
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Was talking to a safety bod from the CAA....
The forcast is ONLY expected to be 30% correct!!
If you are very unhappy with the forcast, file an occurence report so that they can see where the problems are!!
anyway that is the information I got when having a grumble about the forcast!!
The forcast is ONLY expected to be 30% correct!!
If you are very unhappy with the forcast, file an occurence report so that they can see where the problems are!!
anyway that is the information I got when having a grumble about the forcast!!
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You are all missing the point. We live on an island where the weather generally comes in from the Atlantic and moves east. We are very narrow east to west and the speed of fronts are difficult to predict.
Reading the previous posts you are obviously all of the new new generation who don't understand that the the weather can't be told what to do to suit your flying just when you want it.
You will be expecting to go into hospital on the NHS and be cured next!
The goverment isn't in charge of the weather!! ( I found that out when doing a 180 home on the way to France at 300ft and half mile vis the other day).
Yes, the forecast was quite do-able. Lets all go live in LA,
Reading the previous posts you are obviously all of the new new generation who don't understand that the the weather can't be told what to do to suit your flying just when you want it.
You will be expecting to go into hospital on the NHS and be cured next!
The goverment isn't in charge of the weather!! ( I found that out when doing a 180 home on the way to France at 300ft and half mile vis the other day).
Yes, the forecast was quite do-able. Lets all go live in LA,
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I live in the Netherlands. My main sources for longer-term forecasts are the GFS model and Sembach (both from Wetter : Wetterzentrale : Top Karten)...
Weather and 6 day weather forecast for Europe according to AVN/GFS and UKMET hydrodynamic weather forecast models.
Maps
Weather and 6 day weather forecast for Europe according to AVN/GFS and UKMET hydrodynamic weather forecast models.
Maps
