MET OFFICE - Pessimistic Forcasts
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MET OFFICE - Pessimistic Forcasts
All,
Not sure if anyone else has noticed but i'm convinced that the Met Office has become another victim of UK Institutions trying to wrap everyone up in cotton wool...
I look at the general BBC and Met-Office websites a few days before going flying to see if it's worthwhile booking the a/c. On the Met-Office site, they now appear to be adding (in red) max possible gust speed along with mean wind speed. This instantly makes the whole weather picture look much worse. On a number of occasions, I've canned the idea of going flying just for the day to work out pefectly.
Add this to the seemingly more abundant weather warnings (with scary flashing icons), it's a wonder that anyone goes out..
With the rudimentary PPL Met knowledge I have, I now find that my own forecast based on looking at a synoptic chart is almost always accurate.
A couple of freinds who fly seem to echo my views on this. Is the Met-Office now so damned scared of being sued when Mrs Jones' washing gets wet or blown away that they are actually starting to make people take bad decisions as they no longer believe the forecast?
The Met Office being overly pessimistic with the forecast is, in my opinion, dangerous in the long run, simply because people will start to see it as "worst case" and go ahead and do their activities anyway...
Anyone agree or is it just me???
Pudnucker
PS - Obviously look at the 214/215, Metars and Tafs before actually flying on the day which, incidently are much more accurate.
Not sure if anyone else has noticed but i'm convinced that the Met Office has become another victim of UK Institutions trying to wrap everyone up in cotton wool...
I look at the general BBC and Met-Office websites a few days before going flying to see if it's worthwhile booking the a/c. On the Met-Office site, they now appear to be adding (in red) max possible gust speed along with mean wind speed. This instantly makes the whole weather picture look much worse. On a number of occasions, I've canned the idea of going flying just for the day to work out pefectly.
Add this to the seemingly more abundant weather warnings (with scary flashing icons), it's a wonder that anyone goes out..
With the rudimentary PPL Met knowledge I have, I now find that my own forecast based on looking at a synoptic chart is almost always accurate.
A couple of freinds who fly seem to echo my views on this. Is the Met-Office now so damned scared of being sued when Mrs Jones' washing gets wet or blown away that they are actually starting to make people take bad decisions as they no longer believe the forecast?
The Met Office being overly pessimistic with the forecast is, in my opinion, dangerous in the long run, simply because people will start to see it as "worst case" and go ahead and do their activities anyway...
Anyone agree or is it just me???
Pudnucker
PS - Obviously look at the 214/215, Metars and Tafs before actually flying on the day which, incidently are much more accurate.
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I pretty much agree with what you've said tbh. I too noticed the small red boxes with max gust speeds. At first thought it was just a windy spell, but when I noticed it week in week out, I realised that they were 'worse case scenario predictions'. Off putting & misleading to say the least.
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Well spotted
Yesterday's forecasts led a lot of people not to bother flying, yet it was a great day out.
The details sent out to the BBC were bad enough, but the TAFs were just as bad. A week ago, we had gusts up to 70kts yet this did not appear on our TAFs, with wind estimated at around 25-30kts.
The timings are useless. Again, one day last week we were expecting a front to arrive at around 13.00hrs using the morning TAF and Form 215. By mid-morning this had slipped to around 15.00hrs and by lunchtime to around 19.00hrs. It never actually did arrive until early the next morning, but was a very weak affair
Over recent years the met forecasts have become pathetic. They are ok when the weather systems are neatly organised and predictable, but with the standard British weather they are becoming a work of fiction.
Nowadays, I try to look at the weather patterns myself and unless it is obvious that the day is a washout, will usually turn up at the field. I've had a lot of good flying this winter on days that the Met Office (not that far away) had predicted would be useless.
Yesterday's forecasts led a lot of people not to bother flying, yet it was a great day out.
The details sent out to the BBC were bad enough, but the TAFs were just as bad. A week ago, we had gusts up to 70kts yet this did not appear on our TAFs, with wind estimated at around 25-30kts.
The timings are useless. Again, one day last week we were expecting a front to arrive at around 13.00hrs using the morning TAF and Form 215. By mid-morning this had slipped to around 15.00hrs and by lunchtime to around 19.00hrs. It never actually did arrive until early the next morning, but was a very weak affair
Over recent years the met forecasts have become pathetic. They are ok when the weather systems are neatly organised and predictable, but with the standard British weather they are becoming a work of fiction.
Nowadays, I try to look at the weather patterns myself and unless it is obvious that the day is a washout, will usually turn up at the field. I've had a lot of good flying this winter on days that the Met Office (not that far away) had predicted would be useless.
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I live in the Netherlands. My main sources for longer-term forecasts are the GFS model and Sembach (both from http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten). I found that they invariably predict the speed at which a front passes through Europe too fast, and the predicted wind speeds, as a result, too high. Also the effects of fronts are overestimated. Other than that they seem to be pretty accurate.
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weather forcasts
many years years ago ,ie, during and after the war the aviation weather forcasts were allegedly finalised by the phrase TCIC which stood for " thank christ I "m covered " .In this modern era of elf and safety I can"t help thinking that that the wheel has turned the full circle!!
You also have to consider that about 25 years ago the Met Office closed many local airfields and made reduntant very experienced Met Officers who truly understood local weather , with these specialist went a wealth of local knowledge, in todays terms that means you become the expert but you need to study all weather inputs and you have that one important ability above the computer in that you can look at the sky and read the signs,as they say with respect to computers "garbage in garbage out" Enjoy your flying, a TAF is just that ,keep a weather eye out when you are airborne, do not be afraid to turn back and pre plan your alternates, in the event a taxi ride back to base makes for a good yarn .
You also have to consider that about 25 years ago the Met Office closed many local airfields and made reduntant very experienced Met Officers who truly understood local weather , with these specialist went a wealth of local knowledge, in todays terms that means you become the expert but you need to study all weather inputs and you have that one important ability above the computer in that you can look at the sky and read the signs,as they say with respect to computers "garbage in garbage out" Enjoy your flying, a TAF is just that ,keep a weather eye out when you are airborne, do not be afraid to turn back and pre plan your alternates, in the event a taxi ride back to base makes for a good yarn .
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Totally agree. I cancelled last Wednesday and the weather was in the event not perfect but totally flyable. There's a definite trend to over-forecasting bad weather at the Met Office in the last six months or so.
Tim
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F215 is normally prepared in the early hours of the morning (i.e. during the night).
The TAFs are done a lot later, usually when the day's weather has developed a bit, and are not issued until the airport in question has issued its first METAR.
The "TV" forecasts are as described, erring massively on the safe side and so ambiguous so as to be useless.
The TAFs are done a lot later, usually when the day's weather has developed a bit, and are not issued until the airport in question has issued its first METAR.
The "TV" forecasts are as described, erring massively on the safe side and so ambiguous so as to be useless.
This thread echoes my feelings on a general trend towards pessimistic forecasting.
Let's face it, from the Met Office's point of view it is preferable to be gleefully reporting unexpected blue skies and sunbathing at Clacton Pier than apologising because the 'wafting breath of air' that blew off your roof was in fact a rather more energetic Gale than we had in '87.
What is more, in New Labour Britain, nobody can be wrong. You must therefore cover your
and only forecast the worst case scenario. Otherwise you run the risk that the News of the World will chase you down on behalf of a million housewives in Lancashire whose washing is now ruined. They will find out about your affair and construct a career-threatening article about The Evil Weather Forecaster and the Tea Lady...
Oh, and don't forget that we live in a sensationalist culture these days. It's much more fun predicting chaos a la The Day after Tomorrow or The Perfect Storm than it is telling everyone that it will be dull, dreary and unremarkable like it was yesterday...
Let's face it, from the Met Office's point of view it is preferable to be gleefully reporting unexpected blue skies and sunbathing at Clacton Pier than apologising because the 'wafting breath of air' that blew off your roof was in fact a rather more energetic Gale than we had in '87.
What is more, in New Labour Britain, nobody can be wrong. You must therefore cover your
and only forecast the worst case scenario. Otherwise you run the risk that the News of the World will chase you down on behalf of a million housewives in Lancashire whose washing is now ruined. They will find out about your affair and construct a career-threatening article about The Evil Weather Forecaster and the Tea Lady...Oh, and don't forget that we live in a sensationalist culture these days. It's much more fun predicting chaos a la The Day after Tomorrow or The Perfect Storm than it is telling everyone that it will be dull, dreary and unremarkable like it was yesterday...
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But the downside for some of the aviation businesses is that, as others have said, people are cancelling flights booked with clubs on the basis of the available met forecasts.
At best, they don't book a few days in advance and regret their decision later when the weather is much less bad than forecast
At worst, the get the morning weather and phone to cancel (or just don't turn up) so the club loses the business and has too little time to rebook the slot.
Oh and because of the cancellations, pilots start to get out of currency and postpone their flying until the weather pattern is more suitable. Thanks, to some extent, to the poor weather forecasts, they have missed out on some really good flying in the winter months.
Perhaps if we had some old-time met-men about who look at weather trends and use their own experience to interprete the met, we would have better forecasts.......
At best, they don't book a few days in advance and regret their decision later when the weather is much less bad than forecast
At worst, the get the morning weather and phone to cancel (or just don't turn up) so the club loses the business and has too little time to rebook the slot.
Oh and because of the cancellations, pilots start to get out of currency and postpone their flying until the weather pattern is more suitable. Thanks, to some extent, to the poor weather forecasts, they have missed out on some really good flying in the winter months.
Perhaps if we had some old-time met-men about who look at weather trends and use their own experience to interprete the met, we would have better forecasts.......
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Perhaps if we had some old-time met-men about who look at weather trends and use their own experience to interprete the met, we would have better forecasts.......
I was living with my then-girlfriend. Her father is a retired met man from Schiphol airport, but now lives on one of those islands in the North of the Netherlands. He still has a keen interest in the weather.
On Monday one week, he calls us up with the message that there's going to be show at their place on Saterday evening. Snow is sufficiently rare in the Netherlands that we got an interest too, plus it would be a nice excuse to visit them again. So we checked the newspapers, TV and such and no reports of snow being forecasted at all. (I wasn't into flying then.)
This went on throughout the week. He kept predicting snow and nothing was mentioned anywhere. On Saturday morning we once again checked the usual weather sources and no prediction of snow, again. So we called him up and asked "snow, tonight. Yes or No? 'Cause if you say yes now we're going to pack our stuff and head your way." (That's a four hour trip by the way, because of the two hour ferry ride. And we had to take the cats and some other stuff.) He hesitated a moment and said yes. So we packed our stuff and went.
During the trip, no sign of snow anywhere. No weather forecasts, no telltale clouds, nothing. We arrive at their place and he claims "7 o'clock". So we spend the time chatting and at exactly 7 o'clock it indeed starts snowing. About an hour, after which there was something like 10 centimeters on the ground. So we put on the cross-country skiing stuff they have, spent about an hour outdoors having tremendous fun and got back in for hot chocolate.
Next day everything had melted away but the "unexpected" snow on that island (and that island alone) made the news.
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Please do not knock the forecasters themselves - they are generally not shoddy, careless workers, but are giving of their best to please the customers and the management whilst attempting to do a technically demanding job just like you.
I still have memories of Tom Bradbury at Nympsfield, turning up on a rubbish day when nothing was going to leave the circuit. The tug-plane was brought out and he aerotowed off at around 10.00.
We had a fairly tedious day circuit bashing and wondering when we'd get a call to go on a retrieve. At 19.00hrs his aircraft came out from the murk, touched down and stopped.
When we asked what he'd done, he'd flown to Snowdon to investigate the mountain wave there and had a pack of paper recording his readings
Now there was a great forecaster!!!!!!
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I recall nearly setting off with someone for a check flight from a field prone to the Ha.
He had carefully checked the TAF and there was no mention.
We started to taxi and I pointed out there was a good chance we might not get back - did he mind landing a little more inland and asking the wife to pick us up. He did, but assured me all would be well.
Anyway I persisted and we agreed to taxi back and have a coffee and wait and see what happened.
Sure enough the fieled was fog bound for the rest of the day within half an hour.
I am not particularly claiming any credit - just knew the field well and the signs to watch for.
The TAF got amended shortly after which just goes to show they are not always only pessimistic.
I guess in the days of a met guy on the field it would never have happened.
On other issues is there any evidence to suggest the weather has become less easy to forecast?
I have been watching the snow forecasts for the Alps all winter. It is incredible how inaccurate they are - even forecasting significant snow falls the day before which comes to nothing but not forecasting falls that are significant. A reflection of another poster on here perhaps.
10 years ago I seem to recall they were considerably more accurate.
He had carefully checked the TAF and there was no mention.
We started to taxi and I pointed out there was a good chance we might not get back - did he mind landing a little more inland and asking the wife to pick us up. He did, but assured me all would be well.
Anyway I persisted and we agreed to taxi back and have a coffee and wait and see what happened.
Sure enough the fieled was fog bound for the rest of the day within half an hour.
I am not particularly claiming any credit - just knew the field well and the signs to watch for.
The TAF got amended shortly after which just goes to show they are not always only pessimistic.
I guess in the days of a met guy on the field it would never have happened.
On other issues is there any evidence to suggest the weather has become less easy to forecast?
I have been watching the snow forecasts for the Alps all winter. It is incredible how inaccurate they are - even forecasting significant snow falls the day before which comes to nothing but not forecasting falls that are significant. A reflection of another poster on here perhaps.
10 years ago I seem to recall they were considerably more accurate.
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10 years ago I seem to recall they were considerably more accurate.
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10 years ago I seem to recall they were considerably more accurate.
10 years ago the average layman (us) did not have access to the wealth of information we have now (mainly due to the internet), both with regards to actuals and (past) forecasts. It has become much easier for us to check the translation of the general synopsis into a local forecast by the met man. It has also become easier to retrieve a forecast from the past and check it with actual weather.
And for me personally, I learned to fly a little over two years ago and know a lot more about weather now than I did some years ago.
So both of these factors influence my perception of the quality of weather forecasting a few years ago and now. I don't think the weather forecasts have become worse, but I think I am now able to spot the inaccuracies better.
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The met office use to provide an analysis of the accuracy of TAFs which over the years made interesting reading.
I never spent long enough looking at the data to reach a firm conclusion on the overall trend.
I see that information is no longer availlable over the web but by application only.
Never the less some of the background remains interesting reading.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...ification.html
I never spent long enough looking at the data to reach a firm conclusion on the overall trend.
I see that information is no longer availlable over the web but by application only.
Never the less some of the background remains interesting reading.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...ification.html
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If any GA user has issues around the validty or accuracy of the data please contact me via PM with a case that you would like presenting to the Met Office.
I am now representing GA on the Met Office User Forum and would be happy to take any genuine concerns to the table.
The terms of reference of the group state that the Met Office User Forum is to:
- Provide advice and guidance to the Met Office and the Met Authority, CAA, concerning the provision of meteorological services and its effectiveness in meeting the current service specification that defines the needs of international and domestic air navigation.
- Examine aeronautical meteorological costs, and the methods of cost recovery, with a view to ensuring efficiency, effectiveness and value for money in relation to the quality of service required.
- Develop proposals for the improvement of meteorological services in order to ensure that they continue to meet evolving operational requirements.
- To receive reports from the R&D Steering Group (a sub-group of the Forum) and to review the outcome of R&D work.
- Advise the Met Office and the Met Authority, CAA, in the development and use of appropriate output performance indicators.
- To consider any deficiencies in current ICAO Annex 3 requirements and the need for commercial/bi-lateral arrangements for Met service provision
- Enable a wider discussion of aeronautical meteorological issues as appropriate.
I am now representing GA on the Met Office User Forum and would be happy to take any genuine concerns to the table.
The terms of reference of the group state that the Met Office User Forum is to:
- Provide advice and guidance to the Met Office and the Met Authority, CAA, concerning the provision of meteorological services and its effectiveness in meeting the current service specification that defines the needs of international and domestic air navigation.
- Examine aeronautical meteorological costs, and the methods of cost recovery, with a view to ensuring efficiency, effectiveness and value for money in relation to the quality of service required.
- Develop proposals for the improvement of meteorological services in order to ensure that they continue to meet evolving operational requirements.
- To receive reports from the R&D Steering Group (a sub-group of the Forum) and to review the outcome of R&D work.
- Advise the Met Office and the Met Authority, CAA, in the development and use of appropriate output performance indicators.
- To consider any deficiencies in current ICAO Annex 3 requirements and the need for commercial/bi-lateral arrangements for Met service provision
- Enable a wider discussion of aeronautical meteorological issues as appropriate.
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Bose X suggestion is an excellent idea.
In the interim, don't just rely solely on the 5 day forecast or even the first taf of the day.
If poor weather is forecast some the next day, have a look at the first taf and, at the same time, look at the metars of airports in the area/direction of intended flight and keep doing so right up until the time you intend to depart.
I'm not defending the Met Office, as an ATCO it's equally frustrating to issue metars which seem to bear no relavance to what the taf says for that particular period, often it's a case that the timing is a few hours out but sometimes we do report the weather before it appears on the taf and then it's suddenly updated.
Just to correct PKP ever so slightly, it wasn't that the airport operators dispensed with forecaster services at their airports, more a case that the Met Office were required by the Government to become commercially viable and wanted to charge airports a small fortune to have a based Met Office, consequently they all went.
In the interim, don't just rely solely on the 5 day forecast or even the first taf of the day.
If poor weather is forecast some the next day, have a look at the first taf and, at the same time, look at the metars of airports in the area/direction of intended flight and keep doing so right up until the time you intend to depart.
I'm not defending the Met Office, as an ATCO it's equally frustrating to issue metars which seem to bear no relavance to what the taf says for that particular period, often it's a case that the timing is a few hours out but sometimes we do report the weather before it appears on the taf and then it's suddenly updated.
Just to correct PKP ever so slightly, it wasn't that the airport operators dispensed with forecaster services at their airports, more a case that the Met Office were required by the Government to become commercially viable and wanted to charge airports a small fortune to have a based Met Office, consequently they all went.
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Good to see it's not just me then chaps... Only had one eye on BBC breakfast while ironing my underpants this morning but I'm sure the forecast was for crap wx today and it's seemed pretty flyable to me down in Poole.
Bose X, can PM you ref the original post if you want me to (but my views are there)... Ask them to get rid of the silly red marked gust speeds and stop issuing nasty looking weather warnings for anything more than a rain shower or zephyr of wind....! I know that they are meant for the general public but this has seriously got to be affecting lots of people from us pilots, flying schools to holiday resorts and boaters to event organisers. Incidently, I also run a powerboat and general thoughts in the yacht club show similar sentiments that are on here (boaters learn a very similar wx syllabus as pilots).
As a complete side issue; If your contact at the Met Office can get me the phone number of the tasty bird in the kinky boots on the Sky weather that would also be extremely useful....!
Bose X, can PM you ref the original post if you want me to (but my views are there)... Ask them to get rid of the silly red marked gust speeds and stop issuing nasty looking weather warnings for anything more than a rain shower or zephyr of wind....! I know that they are meant for the general public but this has seriously got to be affecting lots of people from us pilots, flying schools to holiday resorts and boaters to event organisers. Incidently, I also run a powerboat and general thoughts in the yacht club show similar sentiments that are on here (boaters learn a very similar wx syllabus as pilots).
As a complete side issue; If your contact at the Met Office can get me the phone number of the tasty bird in the kinky boots on the Sky weather that would also be extremely useful....!
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I am happy to take any sensible suggestions. But I would ask that they are put in writing to me clearly stating the issue and suggestions on how you would like to see the service improved or changed.
With respect to those posting on here:
As these are anonymous forums the origins of the contributions may be opposite to what may be apparent. In fact the press may use it, or the unscrupulous, to elicit certain reactions.
As such I am not going to take any anonymous postings to the working group table. Anyone who is interested merely has to PM me and I will give you an email address to send to.
With respect to those posting on here:
As these are anonymous forums the origins of the contributions may be opposite to what may be apparent. In fact the press may use it, or the unscrupulous, to elicit certain reactions.
As such I am not going to take any anonymous postings to the working group table. Anyone who is interested merely has to PM me and I will give you an email address to send to.