Crossing the English Channel in a SEP
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I carry a 4-person raft from Survival Products (USA). It is light enough for somebody not too strong to lift it. As you say, the big ones are heavy, and in fact some 4-person ones are IMHO too heavy too.
Equipment is IMHO optional. One can buy rafts with a kit of bits like tablets for sickness. Making a mayday call and setting 7700 ought to be enough in most of Europe. I have an emergency bag containing an ICOM radio, a handheld GPS, a 121.50/243/406MHz EPIRB, and some other bits like guaranteed fresh batteries (replace them annually), and would hope that either myself or somebody else can carry that into the raft.
Recently I have been looking at some new American radios, which are immersible, as well as very compact. They are not CAA approved so not for sale in the UK but I will try a covert import via a friend in the USA who will re-package it for me. It should be easy to call up an airliner on 121.50.
Equipment is IMHO optional. One can buy rafts with a kit of bits like tablets for sickness. Making a mayday call and setting 7700 ought to be enough in most of Europe. I have an emergency bag containing an ICOM radio, a handheld GPS, a 121.50/243/406MHz EPIRB, and some other bits like guaranteed fresh batteries (replace them annually), and would hope that either myself or somebody else can carry that into the raft.
Recently I have been looking at some new American radios, which are immersible, as well as very compact. They are not CAA approved so not for sale in the UK but I will try a covert import via a friend in the USA who will re-package it for me. It should be easy to call up an airliner on 121.50.
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How we love to hate theFrench and V.V.
Re : 1 hour to Bleriot-Plage...
Where is the line of demarcation between English and French rescue services? FIR Boundary for aircraft or mid channel or what?
Does RNLI have views on efficiency of French services and what is the degree of co-operation and co-ordination between the two countries (especially when a broadcast MAYDAY on 121.5 is made?)
Dreadful thought if both French and UK services intercept the mayday call and then dither about who is going to respond!!
Where is the line of demarcation between English and French rescue services? FIR Boundary for aircraft or mid channel or what?
Does RNLI have views on efficiency of French services and what is the degree of co-operation and co-ordination between the two countries (especially when a broadcast MAYDAY on 121.5 is made?)
Dreadful thought if both French and UK services intercept the mayday call and then dither about who is going to respond!!
In fact there is strong, close, intimate and effective co-operation with the French (and Dutch) with us helping them, and them helping us. For example we sent a boat near to Calais when their asset was on another job. The French also task the Channel Island lifeboats. It is about saving lives, after all. Similarly the two coastguards for the most part put aside national boundaries.
As to efficiency, the RNLI is the best in the world in every respect (not many British things you can say that about, especially Cricket Teams). Everybody else comes second. No particular views about the French
You might also be interested to know that we sell our de-commissioned lifeboats to third, and not-so-third world countries, where they continue to save lives, even though some are pretty long in the tooth.
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[quote=denhamflyer;2984003]
For aircraft weight is very very important so we tend to use very simple liferafts - what in your opinion is the minimum liferaft items you think we should have to survive in the channel. ( also at what distance(time) from SAR do you think a survival suit should be worn if at all)
quote]
First question is relatively easy - flares, torch, 1st aid, water, energy food, seasickness tablets, TPAs for each on board, bailer, sponge, sick bag (each), radar reflector, maybe repair kit, sea anchor. That is my recommendation, but more is better. I guess you don't need fishing kits, etc.
Second one is harder, as SAR is not a point in geography, though, of course it has to start somewhere. You could say you need survival gear the minute you cross the coast, though that is a bit extreme. As you might have gathered, I think a liferaft with TPAs is the ideal solution.
If, for whatever reason, you prefer to equip yourself with a survival suit, your life expectancy is a direct function of the water temperature, and how long you take to get found. We die of lack of water before lack of food.
I think the issue is this... you are making contingency plans for an eventuality that is unlikely, but possible. If your mitigation of that risk is a survival suit, then wear it when you think your survival time is less than the time it might take the SAR assets to get to you. If we say, for example, that you will survive (and keep afloat, remember) for three hours in the Channel in late summer without protection, then when we get to you you may not be very well, but you'll be alive.
Five hours might be different. You might have a heart attack. You might die of cold water shock.
Between Devon and Brittany there is an awful lot more water, so our likehood of finding you will run into days, maybe. Depends on our fix, what the viz and sea is like etc etc. It is unlikely that 48 hours will pass before you are Found
Not sure about the type of survival suit you mean. If it is convenient to wear when flying, then wear it. If you have the notion that, on ditching, you'll amble out onto the wing and put it on, then get a life raft.
There are no hard and fast rules on this, and it has given me plenty to think about, but sadly a lot has to be left to the individual in the absence of definitive research.
Does that help?
For aircraft weight is very very important so we tend to use very simple liferafts - what in your opinion is the minimum liferaft items you think we should have to survive in the channel. ( also at what distance(time) from SAR do you think a survival suit should be worn if at all)
quote]
First question is relatively easy - flares, torch, 1st aid, water, energy food, seasickness tablets, TPAs for each on board, bailer, sponge, sick bag (each), radar reflector, maybe repair kit, sea anchor. That is my recommendation, but more is better. I guess you don't need fishing kits, etc.
Second one is harder, as SAR is not a point in geography, though, of course it has to start somewhere. You could say you need survival gear the minute you cross the coast, though that is a bit extreme. As you might have gathered, I think a liferaft with TPAs is the ideal solution.
If, for whatever reason, you prefer to equip yourself with a survival suit, your life expectancy is a direct function of the water temperature, and how long you take to get found. We die of lack of water before lack of food.
I think the issue is this... you are making contingency plans for an eventuality that is unlikely, but possible. If your mitigation of that risk is a survival suit, then wear it when you think your survival time is less than the time it might take the SAR assets to get to you. If we say, for example, that you will survive (and keep afloat, remember) for three hours in the Channel in late summer without protection, then when we get to you you may not be very well, but you'll be alive.
Five hours might be different. You might have a heart attack. You might die of cold water shock.
Between Devon and Brittany there is an awful lot more water, so our likehood of finding you will run into days, maybe. Depends on our fix, what the viz and sea is like etc etc. It is unlikely that 48 hours will pass before you are Found
Not sure about the type of survival suit you mean. If it is convenient to wear when flying, then wear it. If you have the notion that, on ditching, you'll amble out onto the wing and put it on, then get a life raft.
There are no hard and fast rules on this, and it has given me plenty to think about, but sadly a lot has to be left to the individual in the absence of definitive research.
Does that help?
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thanks chuns it does help.
So my reading of this is in order of preference:-
1. Life Raft
2. PLB / EPIRB
3. Survival suit.
The list you give is quite extensive - e.g radar reflector. I would be interested in your comments on a typical Light Aircraft liferaft and its bits. Remember we typically have a small door with which to espace and carry the life raft thru.
(see http://www.survivalproductsinc.com/fourman.htm)
I think you have convinced me to buy a PLB for my longer trips!
So my reading of this is in order of preference:-
1. Life Raft
2. PLB / EPIRB
3. Survival suit.
The list you give is quite extensive - e.g radar reflector. I would be interested in your comments on a typical Light Aircraft liferaft and its bits. Remember we typically have a small door with which to espace and carry the life raft thru.
(see http://www.survivalproductsinc.com/fourman.htm)
I think you have convinced me to buy a PLB for my longer trips!
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Sounds reasonable, except:
0 = Lifejacket.
You have to make it into the liferaft in the first place.
Edited because mad jock's subsequent post reminded me I'd forgotten something: Thanks, Peter, for the RNLI perspective - very interesting and thought provoking.
0 = Lifejacket.
You have to make it into the liferaft in the first place.
Edited because mad jock's subsequent post reminded me I'd forgotten something: Thanks, Peter, for the RNLI perspective - very interesting and thought provoking.
Last edited by DaveW; 24th Nov 2006 at 22:35. Reason: Thank you, chuns
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I stand corrected. Hadn't thought of the spotting thing. I had put my faith in the EPIRB giving my position.
The suits are like the inshore crews gear and should be put on before departure.
Peter thankyou for taking the time to reply to the thread. Its actually quite nice (even if I was wrong) to have an authoritative opinion to answer a debate. We have John Farley and a few other undisputed holders of knowledge who can conclude debates. You have just been added to the list.
As a matter of interest is it recorded how many ditchings have occured in UK waters?.
P.S is someone going to take Peter for a flight?
The suits are like the inshore crews gear and should be put on before departure.
Peter thankyou for taking the time to reply to the thread. Its actually quite nice (even if I was wrong) to have an authoritative opinion to answer a debate. We have John Farley and a few other undisputed holders of knowledge who can conclude debates. You have just been added to the list.
As a matter of interest is it recorded how many ditchings have occured in UK waters?.
P.S is someone going to take Peter for a flight?
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DaveW
The lifejacket won't affect getting into the raft. If you are in the water, and the raft isn't tied to the aircraft, you probably aren't going to make it into the raft, especially if you are wearing a life jacket.
Any significant wind is going to blow an empty raft along the surface faster than any sub olympic class swimmer can go after it.
The objective is to attach the cord to the aircraft (e.g. the yoke), then with the raft package outside the aircraft, pull the cord out until the raft starts to inflate, then get into the raft while its cord is still attached to the aircraft.
The cord has a breakable link in it which supposedly prevents the sinking aircraft dragging the raft down (but I carry a knife for this purpose anyway).
If you chuck the raft into the water, hoping to climb into it, it will just float away. Unless there is zero wind, which is rare.
The lifejacket won't affect getting into the raft. If you are in the water, and the raft isn't tied to the aircraft, you probably aren't going to make it into the raft, especially if you are wearing a life jacket.
Any significant wind is going to blow an empty raft along the surface faster than any sub olympic class swimmer can go after it.
The objective is to attach the cord to the aircraft (e.g. the yoke), then with the raft package outside the aircraft, pull the cord out until the raft starts to inflate, then get into the raft while its cord is still attached to the aircraft.
The cord has a breakable link in it which supposedly prevents the sinking aircraft dragging the raft down (but I carry a knife for this purpose anyway).
If you chuck the raft into the water, hoping to climb into it, it will just float away. Unless there is zero wind, which is rare.
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"P.S is someone going to take Peter for a flight?"
If you would like to go for a flight (free of course) Peter, PM me and let me know where you live. If I am near, I would be delighted to take you if you would like to - two engines or one as you prefer.
If you would like to go for a flight (free of course) Peter, PM me and let me know where you live. If I am near, I would be delighted to take you if you would like to - two engines or one as you prefer.
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A lifejacket certainly can increase your chances of getting into the raft. If you have to enter the water first before boarding the raft - rather than stepping into it from the wing, which is the ideal but not always possible - then you want a lifejacket.
Maybe you will decide not to inflate it until you have caught the raft, but you really want the jacket in case things don't go to plan.
1. It's amazing how quickly you can get exhausted in the water. Throw in the cold and some shock, and it'll happen that much quicker.
2. What if the liferaft doesn't inflate? Or only partially?
3. What if the liferaft is the other side of the aircraft to you? (e.g. your pax took it out with him)
4. What if your pax needs some help?
5. What if the aircraft was inverted on ditching? Getting the raft out will be even more of a challenge, and you certainly won't be stepping into it from the wing then.
6 etc. - other scenarios are available!
You (and your pax) want a lifejacket and a raft.
Now, I am not claiming to be an expert on this, but I have been fortunate to have done several aviation sea survival courses and renewals, both wet and dry, which have absolutely convinced me of the above.
On one of them, from Calshot, the raft only partially inflated due to a faulty valve. If I hadn't had a jacket (and it had been for real, of course!) I'd have been dead. As it was, the exercise crew left me be whilst I clambered into the floppy raft and inflated it manually to a sufficient extent to have some bouyancy itself. I was shattered by the end, and that was in late summer, whilst wearing an immersion suit, in the Solent.
Speaking of immersion suits - whilst it is the case as mentioned earlier that you will cool down 20+ times faster in water than in air, don't forget that you may well be soaked through if you don't have an immersion suit and therefore that 20+ 'advantage' will actually be a lot lower once you are sat sodden in your raft.
An immersion suit doesn't keep you warm; the layers of clothing under it are what keeps you warm - the suit keeps them dry.
The choice of whether to wear a suit or not is less clear cut on a short Channel crossing, and really comes down to your attitude to risk - but as ever, one needs to undertand those risks in order to make an informed judgement. You may consider that a 406MHz ELT will bring SAR to you quickly enough that you will not need a suit, but without one I bet you'll be c-c-c-cold, whatever the time of year.
If I was wearing a suit, it wouldn't be with the intention of using it instead of a raft for the reasons Peter gives earlier. Of the two, a raft would always be the first thing I went for.
Final comments on rafts - get one with a canopy. You want the wind off you if you are wet (and even if you aren't). Also, stream the sea anchor as soon as you get in; you wouldn't want the wind to invert the raft with you in it...
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I agree with wearing a lifejacket and I always do. ( I somewhat assumed that as read, assumption is the mother of...)
However I also agree that I would NOT normally inflate it unless I had to.
I had a number of experiences with "automatic" jackets in the marine environment - it is particularly difficult to climb on board a rib/liferaft on your own with a jacket fully inflated (as I am sure you are aware).
The issue with being cold is to do with the thermal properties of the sea. Once out of the sea, whilst you will be cold and wet you will no longer be loosing your body heat trying to warm up the sea! So you still have the significant advantage.
PS. I also carry the survival product liferaft - but am somewhat nervous of its efficacy - having spent many years carrying robust deep ocean certified liferafts!
However I also agree that I would NOT normally inflate it unless I had to.
I had a number of experiences with "automatic" jackets in the marine environment - it is particularly difficult to climb on board a rib/liferaft on your own with a jacket fully inflated (as I am sure you are aware).
The issue with being cold is to do with the thermal properties of the sea. Once out of the sea, whilst you will be cold and wet you will no longer be loosing your body heat trying to warm up the sea! So you still have the significant advantage.
PS. I also carry the survival product liferaft - but am somewhat nervous of its efficacy - having spent many years carrying robust deep ocean certified liferafts!
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DaveW
No disagreement there
I wear a life jacket too.
The question mark is whether one can swim a short distance (e.g. to a raft) faster with one or without one, and how well one can swim with one inflated.
I read a report a while ago, of people who ditched wearing the standard jackets. For some reason they decided to swim. This may have been just localised movement, to keep themselves oriented face-away from breaking waves (perhaps a significant sea state, F6 or more). After swimming half an hour, all were bleeding substantially from cuts in the neck area, caused by the jackets.
All "pilot" jackets will do this, as far as I know. They are not designed for serious wearing. Once inflated, you are supposed to keep still. These come from the usual pilot shops, usually made by Remploy Ltd to various external fabric specs but with identical internal content. The cheapest (£50) are awful, with fabric which makes you sweat like a pig.
There are proper jackets with padding in the right places, and designed for continuous wear by professional crew. These start at about £250. One name I recall is Switlik, made in USA. I tried to buy one of these a while ago but the UK agent was completely uninterested in selling me one.
Obviously if somebody can't swim at all then they will swim better with an inflated jacket than without a jacket
Myself, an OK swimmer, I am not so sure. I would wear the jacket but would not inflate it unless I was stuffed (no chance of getting into a raft) and just had to float. But then I must admit I have never tried swimming with one on, inflated or not.
This is all hypothetical for most of us, and let's hope it remains so, but it's a good discussion.
No disagreement there
I wear a life jacket too.The question mark is whether one can swim a short distance (e.g. to a raft) faster with one or without one, and how well one can swim with one inflated.
I read a report a while ago, of people who ditched wearing the standard jackets. For some reason they decided to swim. This may have been just localised movement, to keep themselves oriented face-away from breaking waves (perhaps a significant sea state, F6 or more). After swimming half an hour, all were bleeding substantially from cuts in the neck area, caused by the jackets.
All "pilot" jackets will do this, as far as I know. They are not designed for serious wearing. Once inflated, you are supposed to keep still. These come from the usual pilot shops, usually made by Remploy Ltd to various external fabric specs but with identical internal content. The cheapest (£50) are awful, with fabric which makes you sweat like a pig.
There are proper jackets with padding in the right places, and designed for continuous wear by professional crew. These start at about £250. One name I recall is Switlik, made in USA. I tried to buy one of these a while ago but the UK agent was completely uninterested in selling me one.
Obviously if somebody can't swim at all then they will swim better with an inflated jacket than without a jacket
Myself, an OK swimmer, I am not so sure. I would wear the jacket but would not inflate it unless I was stuffed (no chance of getting into a raft) and just had to float. But then I must admit I have never tried swimming with one on, inflated or not.This is all hypothetical for most of us, and let's hope it remains so, but it's a good discussion.
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Just a thought. The last RAF crash we had in the sea was a Tornado at Holbeach range a few weeks back (OK, it wasn't quite in the sea as they ended up on the mud flats). Considering that everyone knew the location of the aircrew, there were more PLBs going off than I've had hot dinners and there were three helicopters dispatched to the scene (one of which was actually rotors turning at the time), you may be interested to note that Peter the Pilot and his WSO bag carrier were left pondering life, the universe and everything else for 45 minutes before the were joined by the ever heroic helicopter crews.
IMHO that, unless you are extremely lucky, you should plan on being in the water for at least an hour and probably two.
IMHO that, unless you are extremely lucky, you should plan on being in the water for at least an hour and probably two.
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If the Switlik vests are more comfortable and anybody knows how to get one in the UK, please post here.
It's easy to organise a purchase in the USA (using a US based contact) and surface shipping to the UK. Not sure about air freight due to the air bottles, and courier (DHL etc) is a waste of money for anything over say 10kg. If there was enough interest I would be happy to do a bulk purchase via my distributor in NY. Bypassing UK sole agents is always fun
However, I would first make sure that we can get them serviced here, e.g. by SEMS in Basildon.
IMHO that, unless you are extremely lucky, you should plan on being in the water for at least an hour and probably two.
I think, looking at where you will be coming from, at least that long. That's why a raft is so essential.
It's easy to organise a purchase in the USA (using a US based contact) and surface shipping to the UK. Not sure about air freight due to the air bottles, and courier (DHL etc) is a waste of money for anything over say 10kg. If there was enough interest I would be happy to do a bulk purchase via my distributor in NY. Bypassing UK sole agents is always fun
However, I would first make sure that we can get them serviced here, e.g. by SEMS in Basildon.
IMHO that, unless you are extremely lucky, you should plan on being in the water for at least an hour and probably two.
I think, looking at where you will be coming from, at least that long. That's why a raft is so essential.
Last edited by IO540; 25th Nov 2006 at 20:48.
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Having been watching this thread for some time I think it must be putting the fear of god into all who have not flown the short crossing before.
The Channel is the busiest shipping lane in the world, and most of us only fly across it in summer. In my aircraft I am out of gliding range of land for 90 seconds. The chances of your engine failing during this time are extremely remote. Calculate yours, plus your point of no return, based on the weather for that day.
I always play spot the boat. On a typical Saturday in summer you will probably be within gliding range of several yachts and you have a 30% chance of a warship. Any of these, plus numerous other options will have you on board in no time. This is by far your best survival chance.
Most aircraft float, at least for a while. There is a case of a DR400 which floated for over 2 hours (admittedly it had dry tanks). This aircraft was towed to shore and eventually flew again (I considered buying it 10 years later). Assuming you make a good job of getting the aircraft onto the water you may even have time to get out of a PA28, but I would not like to try it, personally.
Life Rafts
Based on a one week advanced open water survival course I did in the water around Jersey many years ago you had better hope the aircraft floats. None of the untrained fit young 20 something’s, which had not been previously trained, could get into the raft in moderately good conditions. That is a failure rate of 70 out of 70 (about 5 of us had done it before and we all made it, but we were all ideally dressed. This test was carried out in open water, in summer. Based on this the chances of your average PPL getting into a raft in open water must be very very low. I would guess my chances, wearing a lifejacket in place of a buoyancy aid, and with no wet suit, to be <50%.
In my youth I have flown for 1.5 hours across the North Sea and done the long crossing many times. I now only fly the short crossing, but I consider this to be very low risk, primarily because of the very short time you are out of gliding range and I do not fly it in winter.
I always hold a ditching brief before take off, as if your crew do not know what to do then you are in big trouble, particularly in a four or six seater.
Rod1
The Channel is the busiest shipping lane in the world, and most of us only fly across it in summer. In my aircraft I am out of gliding range of land for 90 seconds. The chances of your engine failing during this time are extremely remote. Calculate yours, plus your point of no return, based on the weather for that day.
I always play spot the boat. On a typical Saturday in summer you will probably be within gliding range of several yachts and you have a 30% chance of a warship. Any of these, plus numerous other options will have you on board in no time. This is by far your best survival chance.
Most aircraft float, at least for a while. There is a case of a DR400 which floated for over 2 hours (admittedly it had dry tanks). This aircraft was towed to shore and eventually flew again (I considered buying it 10 years later). Assuming you make a good job of getting the aircraft onto the water you may even have time to get out of a PA28, but I would not like to try it, personally.
Life Rafts
Based on a one week advanced open water survival course I did in the water around Jersey many years ago you had better hope the aircraft floats. None of the untrained fit young 20 something’s, which had not been previously trained, could get into the raft in moderately good conditions. That is a failure rate of 70 out of 70 (about 5 of us had done it before and we all made it, but we were all ideally dressed. This test was carried out in open water, in summer. Based on this the chances of your average PPL getting into a raft in open water must be very very low. I would guess my chances, wearing a lifejacket in place of a buoyancy aid, and with no wet suit, to be <50%.
In my youth I have flown for 1.5 hours across the North Sea and done the long crossing many times. I now only fly the short crossing, but I consider this to be very low risk, primarily because of the very short time you are out of gliding range and I do not fly it in winter.
I always hold a ditching brief before take off, as if your crew do not know what to do then you are in big trouble, particularly in a four or six seater.
Rod1
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"In my aircraft I am out of gliding range of land for 90 seconds."
A very efficient aircraft flying the shortest route then.
A typical PA28 will manage 1.75 nm per 1,000 feet, flown perfectly.
The shortest crossing possible is around 26 nm, so I suspect if you do the maths and fly at 3,000 feet you are out of glide range for rather longer.
"you had better hope the aircraft floats."
"Most aircraft float,"
Ah well, that's settled then.
A very efficient aircraft flying the shortest route then.
A typical PA28 will manage 1.75 nm per 1,000 feet, flown perfectly.
The shortest crossing possible is around 26 nm, so I suspect if you do the maths and fly at 3,000 feet you are out of glide range for rather longer.
"you had better hope the aircraft floats."
"Most aircraft float,"
Ah well, that's settled then.
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Fuji
As every schoolboy knows the English Channel is 21 sm wide at its narrowest point, this is 18 nm. I have just checked this on the map and it is bang on and there is no restrictions on this route. If you are out by this much with your planning ……
At 130kn that is about 8.5 min from coast to coast. I know my maths is right so it is up to each pilot to do the sums and allow for wind for the point of no return and calculate the amount of time out of gliding range. I do not fly a PA28 so I have no idea how it will relate, and there are many versions.
Most aircraft, correctly ditched, will float, but not all, so yes I do hope mine is one of them.
Rod1
As every schoolboy knows the English Channel is 21 sm wide at its narrowest point, this is 18 nm. I have just checked this on the map and it is bang on and there is no restrictions on this route. If you are out by this much with your planning ……
At 130kn that is about 8.5 min from coast to coast. I know my maths is right so it is up to each pilot to do the sums and allow for wind for the point of no return and calculate the amount of time out of gliding range. I do not fly a PA28 so I have no idea how it will relate, and there are many versions.
Most aircraft, correctly ditched, will float, but not all, so yes I do hope mine is one of them.
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"As every schoolboy knows the English Channel is 21 sm wide at its narrowest point,"
Correct!
I was fixated by the usual LYD Cap Gris Nez that most do
.
Mind you it is still not 90 seconds in a PA28 at 3,000 feet, and PA28s glide well.
Correct!
I was fixated by the usual LYD Cap Gris Nez that most do
.Mind you it is still not 90 seconds in a PA28 at 3,000 feet
, and PA28s glide well.
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I have no idea what the fig is for whatever PA28 you fly but it is not hard to work out. I think my old DR400 was about 105 seconds, which is still insignificant if you have planed you PONR and know which way to turn without wasting too much time.
Consider flying Dover VOR to ING NDB, it could reduce your risk window by a considerable %, you have a nav aid at each end and less chance of banging into anyone. Your route would put me out of gliding range for about 314 sec, which is a huge increase on 90.
The safest way to cross is one where you do not end up in the water at all. The PONR calc and the how long calc are well worth the effort. It is also an excellent way to understand the minimal risk the short crossing represents in most aircraft. I did the calculation for a Nipper once, and stayed at home!
Rod1
Consider flying Dover VOR to ING NDB, it could reduce your risk window by a considerable %, you have a nav aid at each end and less chance of banging into anyone. Your route would put me out of gliding range for about 314 sec, which is a huge increase on 90.
The safest way to cross is one where you do not end up in the water at all. The PONR calc and the how long calc are well worth the effort. It is also an excellent way to understand the minimal risk the short crossing represents in most aircraft. I did the calculation for a Nipper once, and stayed at home!
Rod1