Tafs and flying today
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Thanks very much for all your responses, very interesting. I have to say that Ive always payed more attention to the tafs and not really spent much time on the 215. From now on i will use the 215 more. Problem is if you are navigating in fairly tight airpsace like between luton and heathrow or between heathrow and gatwick, short of turning around and going back there arent many places to hide. Have to say Id rather not go than get stuck in one of those corridors and have to turn round as Id have spent quite a lot of money only to find that i couldnt do what i wanted to do. In a way Id prefer to save the money for a day when i know id be able to complete what i set out to do.
Thanks for your help chaps!
SS
Thanks for your help chaps!
SS
I also was nearly put of by Sunday's TAF but still managed to get to my destination. Took me an hour against the headwind and 40 minutes to get back with only one slight diversion to avoid a chunky big (cb) cloud. as I went around it I was "followed" by a rainbow. Marvellous. Viz was fantastic as well.
Whilst putting the wunderplane away in lovely sunshine I watched a massive cb passing to the East. Turns out that my house 5 miles from the airfield was being deluged with hailstones!
Whilst putting the wunderplane away in lovely sunshine I watched a massive cb passing to the East. Turns out that my house 5 miles from the airfield was being deluged with hailstones!
Formally, a number of airline's ops manuals allow crews to disregard PROB30 forecasts for a fuel decision. For example PROB30 TEMPO 1217 +TSRA could theoretically be ignored in terms of taking extra holding fuel.
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In Private Flying terms, 1 time in 3 you'll find one of these looming over your turning point or destination.
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In Private Flying terms, 1 time in 3 you'll find one of these looming over your turning point or destination.
so either don't fly or be prepared to vary your route or hold-off. ... Flexibility is the key to air power, someone once told me.....
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Age old wisdom, as this thread so well illustrates, is that if you are not sure then don’t fly. It is a line that is a bit too easy to trot out. If we always followed this approach we would never become more experienced. For example, did you have doubts before your first solo or first solo cross country - but you went. Why? In those situations hopefully you had confidence in your instructor and accepted that if he felt the conditions were good enough you should be ok. In the same way this weekend you might have felt the conditions were a little more challenging than you were use to, and of course it is easy to say I’ll stay in the pub. Instead, have a chat with a local instructor or more experienced pilot, maybe one of them would come along with you, or, rather than setting out on a cross country enjoy a short local flight.
So far as this week end was concerned the conditions were exactly as the TAF’s and regional forecasts suggested in my part of the world. The big Cbs were very well spaced and visible from miles away. These are typical conditions for this type of forecast. So long as you are prepared to change your course it is easy to steer around the more significant build ups and give these a wide and safe berth.
“Anyone who has had the misfortune to experience it will know that a CB can manifest themselves and out - run most types of G/A aircraft”
Saturday and Sunday were typical blustery days. The advantage is that the cells moved pretty quickly and if one happened to be over your intended destination when you arrived it wasn’t going to be long before it moved away so you could afford to linger a safe distance.
Cbs outrunning typical GA aircraft in the conditions we saw over the week end is a new one on me. Am I missing something?
All in all I take your point that you did not want to get boxed in some of the narrow air space around Heathrow and you had a destination in mind which you might not have reached. Given that was your mission you might have found negotiating the cells that much more difficult. My point is that it is always safer to stay on the ground but then none of us would ever fly. I am asking we consider staying within a reasonable comfort zone by properly assessing and understanding the forecasts and the conditions and being prepared, should we wish, to safely extend our experience.
Skyseeker - I wanted to add one more comment having reread your email. As others have said the viz in these conditions is usually brilliant - exactly as forecast. Going to Bristol I could see the bridge from before Lyneham some 40 mile aways. I appreciate the constraints of the London TMA but around Gatwick and Heathrow there is plently of room for avoidings Cbs in these conditions so long as you are not hugging the edge of the CZ and even if you are using the Burnham or Luton corridor the viz is so good you will spot problems before entering the corridor so as long as you are prepared to route around the other side of the CZ rather than through the corridor there is no reason why you should get any where near a problem CB.
So far as this week end was concerned the conditions were exactly as the TAF’s and regional forecasts suggested in my part of the world. The big Cbs were very well spaced and visible from miles away. These are typical conditions for this type of forecast. So long as you are prepared to change your course it is easy to steer around the more significant build ups and give these a wide and safe berth.
“Anyone who has had the misfortune to experience it will know that a CB can manifest themselves and out - run most types of G/A aircraft”
Saturday and Sunday were typical blustery days. The advantage is that the cells moved pretty quickly and if one happened to be over your intended destination when you arrived it wasn’t going to be long before it moved away so you could afford to linger a safe distance.
Cbs outrunning typical GA aircraft in the conditions we saw over the week end is a new one on me. Am I missing something?
All in all I take your point that you did not want to get boxed in some of the narrow air space around Heathrow and you had a destination in mind which you might not have reached. Given that was your mission you might have found negotiating the cells that much more difficult. My point is that it is always safer to stay on the ground but then none of us would ever fly. I am asking we consider staying within a reasonable comfort zone by properly assessing and understanding the forecasts and the conditions and being prepared, should we wish, to safely extend our experience.
Skyseeker - I wanted to add one more comment having reread your email. As others have said the viz in these conditions is usually brilliant - exactly as forecast. Going to Bristol I could see the bridge from before Lyneham some 40 mile aways. I appreciate the constraints of the London TMA but around Gatwick and Heathrow there is plently of room for avoidings Cbs in these conditions so long as you are not hugging the edge of the CZ and even if you are using the Burnham or Luton corridor the viz is so good you will spot problems before entering the corridor so as long as you are prepared to route around the other side of the CZ rather than through the corridor there is no reason why you should get any where near a problem CB.
Last edited by Fuji Abound; 9th May 2005 at 11:01.
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And of course, if you do find yourself in a tight class G corridor needing to avoid a CB, and the "only" option is to turn around and go home, there's actually one easily-overlooked option that might allow you to continue to your destination: Push your button and request a zone penetration. Tell the controller that there's a CB getting in your way and you'd like to nip into the zone for a few miles and back out again, and there's a reasonable chance you'll get the clearance you need.
It's not an option that you can rely on of course, but you should stay positive and give yourself every chance of safely completing your intended journey.
It's not an option that you can rely on of course, but you should stay positive and give yourself every chance of safely completing your intended journey.
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"It's not an option that you can rely on of course, but you should stay positive and give yourself every chance of safely completing your intended journey."
Clearly you would not want to rely on a zone clearance in your pre flight planning however I think if I found myself in a corridor with no where else to go to avoid a thunderstorm but through the zone I would pretty much expect to be given the clearance particularly if I had said why I had asked for the clearance. If I still didnt get the clearance I suspect a pan might even be the order of the day - failure to avoid a thunderstorm is definitely in the category of endangering the safe conduct of the flight!
Clearly you would not want to rely on a zone clearance in your pre flight planning however I think if I found myself in a corridor with no where else to go to avoid a thunderstorm but through the zone I would pretty much expect to be given the clearance particularly if I had said why I had asked for the clearance. If I still didnt get the clearance I suspect a pan might even be the order of the day - failure to avoid a thunderstorm is definitely in the category of endangering the safe conduct of the flight!
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I am sorry but I would have to disagree. This debate is about safety and thinking about the weather.
Yes, OK, you can take chances and play the probabilities game and you can win.
However, you can also lose and the consequences of losing are severe!
I have been reading all this with interest and I would still suggest that as we are PPLs and doing this for pleasure and fun then we must be very cautious with the weather.
To justify my stand I ask you to look again at the post where the use of PAN calls is possible. Common sense, to me, would dictate that we should not even consider flying when this might be an option!!!
What are we trying to gain experience for? Again this is pleaseure and my view is that the weather is one of the biggest killers and I treat it with the UTMOST RESPECT.
I showed this correspondence to my airline captain friend who found some of the views amazing! His view, after 35 yeare flying was "I would be on the ground and not even considering flying".
His other comment worried me a little when he decribed some PPLs as "cowboys" - wonder why?
For me, I agree with him and you wont catch me getting experience up nera CBs with a TAF like that - give me a nice clear day where I can enjoy and have as much safety as possible and achieve what I set out to do.
Yes, OK, you can take chances and play the probabilities game and you can win.
However, you can also lose and the consequences of losing are severe!
I have been reading all this with interest and I would still suggest that as we are PPLs and doing this for pleasure and fun then we must be very cautious with the weather.
To justify my stand I ask you to look again at the post where the use of PAN calls is possible. Common sense, to me, would dictate that we should not even consider flying when this might be an option!!!
What are we trying to gain experience for? Again this is pleaseure and my view is that the weather is one of the biggest killers and I treat it with the UTMOST RESPECT.
I showed this correspondence to my airline captain friend who found some of the views amazing! His view, after 35 yeare flying was "I would be on the ground and not even considering flying".
His other comment worried me a little when he decribed some PPLs as "cowboys" - wonder why?
For me, I agree with him and you wont catch me getting experience up nera CBs with a TAF like that - give me a nice clear day where I can enjoy and have as much safety as possible and achieve what I set out to do.
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This thread is really more about experience and personal limitations. Each of us will interpret the weather differently depending on experience and type of flying undertaken. There is no right or wrong answer. It is only natural for an experienced aviator to consider those TAFs as being good enough for flying, in the same way as the orginal poster found it natural to cancel his/her plans. 6 years ago I would have not flown in those conditions. I was flying on Sunday, and have been flying in far worse. But that is what experience does for you. Those of us with plenty of experience should stay off the soap box when giving advice to those with less experience.
As for the airlines which ignore the PROB bits of TAFs..... that is scarey. Even if you do have autoland.
As for the airlines which ignore the PROB bits of TAFs..... that is scarey. Even if you do have autoland.
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As I sit in my office looking out at the sky (a somewhat frequent occurance) it is now overcast. On Sunday, had it been so, I'd have stayed on the ground as I would not have been able to see the CB's and therefore avoid them. The cloud cover on Sunday was very broken between Denham and (as far as I went) DTY during my flight time window, which meant I could see where any of the CB's were in that area, where large cumulus were forming etc. I checked the 5,000 and 10,000ft wind before I left to see which direction and how fast they would be moving. I could therefore maintain a significant distance from any of the CB's and enjoy a lovely flight in the local area. Again, with flight planning, I had at least 3 alternates which at no time were obstructed by weather.
To the poster's original comments, I can't fault you at all on deciding not to go. If you were unhappy with the weather and your sole purpose of the flight was to fly that particular route, then yes you probably would have had to turned back or gone a different way depending on what time you were due airborne. Far more limiting in my opinion was the wind at Denham on Sunday. At the end of the day, you assessed the weather, made a decision and stood by it... that's a good thing!
To the poster's original comments, I can't fault you at all on deciding not to go. If you were unhappy with the weather and your sole purpose of the flight was to fly that particular route, then yes you probably would have had to turned back or gone a different way depending on what time you were due airborne. Far more limiting in my opinion was the wind at Denham on Sunday. At the end of the day, you assessed the weather, made a decision and stood by it... that's a good thing!
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"Yes, OK, you can take chances and play the probabilities game and you can win."
There is a probability of flying into an embedded CB. We dont fly in those conditions. There was no probability of flying into a CB in 30K visibility over the weekend unless you were blind (and probably stupid as well).
"I have been reading all this with interest and I would still suggest that as we are PPLs and doing this for pleasure and fun then we must be very cautious with the weather."
Neither P stands for pleasure. I always enjoy my flying but that doesnt mean it is always purely for pleasure.
"What are we trying to gain experience for?"
Some of us will take on longer flights. It is likely however careful we are with the TAFs and AFs we will at times encounter weather that is different from that predicted. I would be very concerned with any pilot who was no longer gaining experience from his flying. Only recently I encountered a weather event with no CBs forecast or around which I had never come across before. I am glad I now have the experience of those particular conditions. I think it makes me a better pilot.
"I showed this correspondence to my airline captain friend who found some of the views amazing! His view, after 35 yeare flying was "I would be on the ground and not even considering flying".
His other comment worried me a little when he decribed some PPLs as "cowboys" - wonder why?"
I was flying with a commercial pilot over the weekend. He is with BA. We had a great time. Safety was never an issue. I wonder whether your friend was actually aware of the conditions or enjoying a well earned rest in the pub.
You seem to imply there is some magic in being a commercial pilot. The magic is in the 35 years and there are a number of contributors on this forum who have been flying for that long in GA. I suspect they might be rather offended to be referred to as "cowboys". However since your friend was once a PPL himself maybe it takes one to know one?
"To justify my stand I ask you to look again at the post where the use of PAN calls is possible. Common sense, to me, would dictate that we should not even consider flying when this might be an option!!!"
Have you really read the thread. Every flight should start with the possibility of making a PAN or MAYDAY. Hopefully it never happens. The point was never that you should plan a PAN call for weather avoidance, rather a debate about wether if you were amazingly refused a zone clearance due to weather a PAN call would secure the clearance you sought.
There is a probability of flying into an embedded CB. We dont fly in those conditions. There was no probability of flying into a CB in 30K visibility over the weekend unless you were blind (and probably stupid as well).
"I have been reading all this with interest and I would still suggest that as we are PPLs and doing this for pleasure and fun then we must be very cautious with the weather."
Neither P stands for pleasure. I always enjoy my flying but that doesnt mean it is always purely for pleasure.
"What are we trying to gain experience for?"
Some of us will take on longer flights. It is likely however careful we are with the TAFs and AFs we will at times encounter weather that is different from that predicted. I would be very concerned with any pilot who was no longer gaining experience from his flying. Only recently I encountered a weather event with no CBs forecast or around which I had never come across before. I am glad I now have the experience of those particular conditions. I think it makes me a better pilot.
"I showed this correspondence to my airline captain friend who found some of the views amazing! His view, after 35 yeare flying was "I would be on the ground and not even considering flying".
His other comment worried me a little when he decribed some PPLs as "cowboys" - wonder why?"
I was flying with a commercial pilot over the weekend. He is with BA. We had a great time. Safety was never an issue. I wonder whether your friend was actually aware of the conditions or enjoying a well earned rest in the pub.
You seem to imply there is some magic in being a commercial pilot. The magic is in the 35 years and there are a number of contributors on this forum who have been flying for that long in GA. I suspect they might be rather offended to be referred to as "cowboys". However since your friend was once a PPL himself maybe it takes one to know one?
"To justify my stand I ask you to look again at the post where the use of PAN calls is possible. Common sense, to me, would dictate that we should not even consider flying when this might be an option!!!"
Have you really read the thread. Every flight should start with the possibility of making a PAN or MAYDAY. Hopefully it never happens. The point was never that you should plan a PAN call for weather avoidance, rather a debate about wether if you were amazingly refused a zone clearance due to weather a PAN call would secure the clearance you sought.
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I know from a UK Airbus pilot that under their procedures they ignore a PROB30 TEMPO in a TAF.
But then an airliner has a lot more options when it comes to icing conditions, and has weather radar, and ready access to any available bit of air they ask for.
As Fuji says, it is absolutely right that one should not avoid flying just because one is "unsure" or something like that. That just leads to giving up flying. Any go/no-go decision should be made on technical reasons alone.
I am no weather expert but as regards forecast CB activity, if I had to fly in the area then I would look at the lowest forecast bases, subtract a bit for good measure, and if the result is still well above the MSA I would go. So if the CB bases are forecast at 3000ft, I would assume they could be at 2500ft, and plan the flight for 2000ft and ask if that is well above the MSA. The MSA does count even on a VFR flight because the vis is likely to be next to zero in a heavy shower. In reality one would fly around a heavy shower but one has to have an OUT option of which a 180 back home is the least favoured.
I would not set off into IMC (i.e. without a VMC on top option, due to airspace etc) if there could be embedded CBs; my stormscope is pretty good but it won't see them until they get pretty serious.
One wouldn't do a scenic flight with a bird on a day like that, though
But then an airliner has a lot more options when it comes to icing conditions, and has weather radar, and ready access to any available bit of air they ask for.
As Fuji says, it is absolutely right that one should not avoid flying just because one is "unsure" or something like that. That just leads to giving up flying. Any go/no-go decision should be made on technical reasons alone.
I am no weather expert but as regards forecast CB activity, if I had to fly in the area then I would look at the lowest forecast bases, subtract a bit for good measure, and if the result is still well above the MSA I would go. So if the CB bases are forecast at 3000ft, I would assume they could be at 2500ft, and plan the flight for 2000ft and ask if that is well above the MSA. The MSA does count even on a VFR flight because the vis is likely to be next to zero in a heavy shower. In reality one would fly around a heavy shower but one has to have an OUT option of which a 180 back home is the least favoured.
I would not set off into IMC (i.e. without a VMC on top option, due to airspace etc) if there could be embedded CBs; my stormscope is pretty good but it won't see them until they get pretty serious.
One wouldn't do a scenic flight with a bird on a day like that, though
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Blimey, rednine you strike me as being a bit afraid of the weather. I assume you are either very low hours or very cautious. Neither of which I am knocking. If you are high hours then you must be doing some pretty dull flying?
We all make our own calls and those calls are based on experiance. There are a lot of us on these forums who have a significant number of hours and base our judgements of when to fly on this experiance. My airline friends (some of whom I have more hours than) do not judge my decisions. I also think it is insulting to a lot of the experianced aviators here to assume because they have chosen not to fly 350 drunk chavs around for a living that they are any less professional as aviators. Some of us prefer to have proper jobs that pay vast salaries so we can buy more toys!
So I make my point again, it was just a few clouds and some showers and no big deal.
We all make our own calls and those calls are based on experiance. There are a lot of us on these forums who have a significant number of hours and base our judgements of when to fly on this experiance. My airline friends (some of whom I have more hours than) do not judge my decisions. I also think it is insulting to a lot of the experianced aviators here to assume because they have chosen not to fly 350 drunk chavs around for a living that they are any less professional as aviators. Some of us prefer to have proper jobs that pay vast salaries so we can buy more toys!
So I make my point again, it was just a few clouds and some showers and no big deal.
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Strikes me that one of the most important lessons here is not how to read a TAF or 215, but what is your own level of experience. I am keen to fly when time and money allow and I am now in the fortunate position that I have access to a Cessna owned by another PPRuNe contributor. I have flown with him in conditions that on my own I would not have attempted. The strange thing is that we had a good time, flew safely and for my part learnt a great deal. This has added to my experience and given me a new confidence to fly at a time when otherwise I would be grounded. It must be noted that I will still rely on all weather data to gain an informed idea of what to expect. Equally, I would still stay on the ground at times my friend would choose to fly, but that is a personal choice based on my level of experience compared to his.
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Well actually, 22 years experience and about 1100 hours! Does that help? Guess we will all have to stick to our opinions then eh?
However, you are quite right in that I am terrified of the weather - actually I am terrified of anything that if mistreated will kill me!!
Rednine
However, you are quite right in that I am terrified of the weather - actually I am terrified of anything that if mistreated will kill me!!
Rednine
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"Well actually, 22 years experience and about 1100 hours!"
So tell us in your 22 years have you never flown on an occasion when the viz was +30K and isolated CBs. Are you saying that if any CBs are forecast you would never fly or if you are not saying that then in what circumstances would you fly? Are you instrument rated?
I am genuinely interested.
So tell us in your 22 years have you never flown on an occasion when the viz was +30K and isolated CBs. Are you saying that if any CBs are forecast you would never fly or if you are not saying that then in what circumstances would you fly? Are you instrument rated?
I am genuinely interested.
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Just to weigh in to this particular debate... I've recently got my PPL, only have about 80 hours in the logbook. Had a shocker of a time weather wise in getting this far, I cancelled a LOT of navs based on the forecast when, of course, it cleared up later on in the day. Then again, there were other times when it certainly DID NOT clear up.
On a few occasions, while hanging around the flying school because the weather was crap and I wasn't going anywhere, a number of Cherokees from a particular flying school at which a fair few of my mates were learning popped up and appeared over the nearby escarpment - with, as I later found out, those mates of mine usually as solo students on board. They all had around the same amount of experience as me at the time, so if they could do it then why didn't I go?
The answer is that they were (and still are) training for CPLs and bigger and better things. I'm not. I fly purely for the hell of it. If it isn't fun, there's no point. I have precisely no commercial pressures on me completing a flight or not. And that's the way I intend it to stay.
It's always better to be down here, wishing you were up there, than up there, wishing you were down here!
Adam
On a few occasions, while hanging around the flying school because the weather was crap and I wasn't going anywhere, a number of Cherokees from a particular flying school at which a fair few of my mates were learning popped up and appeared over the nearby escarpment - with, as I later found out, those mates of mine usually as solo students on board. They all had around the same amount of experience as me at the time, so if they could do it then why didn't I go?
The answer is that they were (and still are) training for CPLs and bigger and better things. I'm not. I fly purely for the hell of it. If it isn't fun, there's no point. I have precisely no commercial pressures on me completing a flight or not. And that's the way I intend it to stay.
It's always better to be down here, wishing you were up there, than up there, wishing you were down here!
Adam
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Kookabat
You and I are in agreement and we have no pressures and do it for fun!
Just to confirm that I have flown many hours in IMC but in carefully selected conditions. I have also flown in CBs and have experienced TSs - its not where you want to be!!
Been there, done that and got the T shirt!
Never again if I can help it!!
You and I are in agreement and we have no pressures and do it for fun!
Just to confirm that I have flown many hours in IMC but in carefully selected conditions. I have also flown in CBs and have experienced TSs - its not where you want to be!!
Been there, done that and got the T shirt!
Never again if I can help it!!